Process

The prompt, verbatim

One template covers all 26 quantities: a memory-only preamble, the quantity's definition block (name, definition, target interpretation, population, units), and a task list that requests five subjective quantiles, a point estimate pinned to the median, up to three recall-anchor citations, and a brief reasoning summary — returned as JSON in the shape printed at the bottom of the prompt. Below is the text for the elasticity of taxable income, read from the archived request logs — every one of the 29 models received this identical text. Each quantity page shows its own text under "What the models were asked."

Answer from your current memory and background knowledge only.
Do not use tools, files, the web, code, or external resources.
Do not try to reconstruct a literature review or search for a consensus estimate.
Report the belief you currently endorse.

Quantity of interest:
- Name: Elasticity of taxable income
- Definition: Percent change in taxable income from a 1 percent change in the net-of-tax rate.
- Target interpretation: Medium-run ETI for top earners with avoidance and real responses combined
- Population/context: High-income taxpayers in the United States
- Units: elasticity

Task:
1. Use exactly the target interpretation above. In `interpretation`, restate it briefly.
2. Give your subjective quantiles p05, p25, p50, p75, and p95 for this quantity.
3. Set `point_estimate` equal to `p50`.
4. Make the quantiles weakly increasing and numerically coherent.
5. In `citations`, list up to 3 source anchors from memory that influenced your belief. These are recall anchors only. If none come to mind confidently, return `[]`.
6. Keep `reasoning_summary` brief and substantive.

Return valid JSON only with exactly this shape:
{
  "interpretation": "...",
  "point_estimate": <number>,
  "quantiles": {
    "p05": <number>,
    "p25": <number>,
    "p50": <number>,
    "p75": <number>,
    "p95": <number>
  },
  "citations": ["..."],
  "reasoning_summary": "..."
}

Two sign-ambiguous quantities — income elasticity of labor supply and capital-gains realizations — carry an extra sign-convention block that defines what the reported sign means without calling either direction correct. That clarifier text was revised two days into the April 2026 wave: seven April models keep the original wording, and the four April premium models were re-elicited under both. The affected quantity pages carry the model-by-model comparison — the two headline quantities barely move, while the net-of-tax sibling moves materially for two models (paper, Appendix Tables A18–A19). How the JSON is enforced (strict schema, forced function call, or JSON-object mode) follows each provider's API surface and is disclosed per model in the Methods harness table.