This dashboard estimates what UK households will pay for gas and electricity in 2026-27 and 2027-28, and what Autumn Budget support options would cost and who they would reach. We model every household's bill at the prices Ofgem has set and forecasters expect, and score seven options against that baseline using PolicyEngine.
Baseline: energy prices over time
The typical bill rises from £1,477 in April–June 2026 to a forecast of about £2,000 in January–March 2027. This is Ofgem's headline cap figure: the annual bill of a dual-fuel direct-debit household using typical consumption (2,500 kWh electricity, 9,500 kWh gas).
The policy options
Targeted discount
| Who is eligible | Households receiving a means-tested benefit, or whose highest individual income is under £24,000. Great Britain only. |
|---|---|
| How it works | A discount on the household's gas and electricity bill, worth £175 a year on average in the flat version. Income is self-declared this winter and checked by HMRC later. |
| Where it was proposed | Resolution Foundation, Billing me softly (August 2026). |
| How we model it | A simplified illustration, not RF's exact design: a flat £175 to every eligible household, assessed on annual income, with full take-up. RF discounts unit rates, activates by quarter, uses the previous three months' income and expects incomplete take-up. Counted in HBAI income by assumption, by analogy with the Warm Home Discount. |
Budget responses: cost and reach
What each option would cost the government in 2027-28, the average gain per household and the share of households it reaches. The selected option is highlighted; select a column to change it.