{ "built": "2026-10-26", "note": "Non-Urban populations exported from scorecard.db: the populace reform-validation registry (issue #20) plus the compute campaign's attached comparisons (US: TPC/CPSP/PWBM/CBO/JCT; UK: the HMRC ready-reckoner family and the complete OBR Policy measures database, including historical HM Treasury scores; BE: JRC EUROMOD-BE claims with demo-grade Axiom concept-mismatch attachments and the 2026 PIT-reform scorekeeper claims; NZ: official budget scores). Claims explicitly opted into pre-result display remain in the feed with latest status not_computed and empty history. Recorded result statuses and calibration relationships are verbatim; nothing here is a pass/fail grade.", "summary": { "claims": 29894, "multi_release_claims": 287, "by_source": { "aspe_welfare_indicators": 14, "az_admin": 1, "barclays": 1, "ca_admin": 2, "ca_fiscal_note": 6, "capital_economics": 2, "cbo": 10, "cebr": 10, "census": 104, "census_pep": 1, "census_stc": 88, "centax": 104, "centre_for_british_progress": 12, "co_admin": 3, "co_fiscal_note": 1, "cour_des_comptes": 1, "cpag": 25, "cps": 3, "cpsp": 8, "ct_admin": 1, "ct_fiscal_note": 3, "dc_admin": 1, "de_admin": 1, "demos": 5, "deutsche_bank": 2, "dwp": 123, "ey_item_club": 14, "fabian_society": 11, "fns_snap_rates": 104, "fraser_of_allander": 14, "ga_fiscal_note": 1, "goldman_sachs": 4, "hi_admin": 1, "hm_treasury": 698, "ia_admin": 1, "ia_fiscal_note": 1, "id_admin": 2, "id_fiscal_note": 1, "iea": 1, "ifs": 803, "il_admin": 3, "in_admin": 1, "ippr": 77, "irs": 18, "irs_eitc_participation": 53, "irs_soi": 9, "jct": 51, "jrc_euromod": 2, "jrf": 86, "ks_admin": 1, "ks_fiscal_note": 2, "la_admin": 1, "ma_admin": 2, "md_admin": 2, "md_fiscal_note": 1, "me_admin": 1, "mi_admin": 1, "mi_fiscal_note": 1, "mn_admin": 2, "mo_admin": 1, "mt_admin": 1, "nd_fiscal_note": 1, "ne_admin": 1, "nef": 5, "niesr": 30, "nj_admin": 2, "nm_admin": 2, "ny_admin": 2, "nz_treasury": 12, "obr_efo": 815, "obr_efo_economy": 1, "obr_pmd": 24550, "oh_admin": 1, "ok_admin": 1, "ok_fiscal_note": 1, "ons_cpi": 1, "onward": 26, "or_admin": 2, "policy_exchange": 78, "policy_in_practice": 21, "policyengine": 5, "public_first": 11, "pwbm": 2, "resolution_foundation": 1134, "ri_admin": 1, "sc_admin": 1, "scottish_fiscal_commission": 34, "smf": 25, "societe_generale": 4, "spf_finances": 1, "tax_justice_uk": 1, "tax_policy_associates": 12, "tpc": 10, "treasury": 1, "trussell_wpi": 35, "uk_hmrc": 68, "ukmod": 483, "ut_admin": 1, "va_admin": 1, "vt_admin": 2, "wa_admin": 1, "wbg": 4, "wi_admin": 1 }, "by_latest_status": { "comparable": 112, "concept_mismatch": 39, "constructed": 1740, "not_computed": 27113, "pe_gap": 890 }, "by_sign_relative_to_pe": { "magnitude": 14, "opposite": 488, "same": 29111, "unknown": 281 }, "by_country": { "BE": { "claims": 9, "with_result": 9, "with_value": 9, "without_result": 0, "multi_release_claims": 0 }, "NZ": { "claims": 12, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 12, "multi_release_claims": 0 }, "UK": { "claims": 29333, "with_result": 2328, "with_value": 1342, "without_result": 27005, "multi_release_claims": 17 }, "US": { "claims": 540, "with_result": 540, "with_value": 540, "without_result": 0, "multi_release_claims": 270 } } }, "event_archives": [ { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_2010", "label": "Autumn 2010", "path": "data/populations-pmd/f2b6bfc8d62b8f37.json", "claims": 234, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 234, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 234 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 234 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_2011", "label": "Autumn 2011", "path": "data/populations-pmd/e63f09c4a474c409.json", "claims": 228, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 228, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 228 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 228 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_2012", "label": "Autumn 2012", "path": "data/populations-pmd/fa4b23356fbae89c.json", "claims": 426, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 426, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 426 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 426 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_2013", "label": "Autumn 2013", "path": "data/populations-pmd/815d1624050e9373.json", "claims": 654, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 654, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 654 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 654 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_2014", "label": "Autumn 2014", "path": "data/populations-pmd/02178d50294298cd.json", "claims": 600, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 600, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 600 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 600 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_2015", "label": "Autumn 2015", "path": "data/populations-pmd/4fff3b7c6202a241.json", "claims": 336, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 336, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 336 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 336 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_2016", "label": "Autumn 2016", "path": "data/populations-pmd/c285c497965b6ecc.json", "claims": 540, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 540, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 540 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 540 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2017", "label": "Autumn Budget 2017", "path": "data/populations-pmd/7af39942ed3b512d.json", "claims": 846, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 846, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 846 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 846 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2021", "label": "Autumn Budget 2021", "path": "data/populations-pmd/1a7259e229e5dcda.json", "claims": 1080, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 1080, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 1080 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 1080 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "label": "Autumn Budget 2024", "path": 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"obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "label": "Autumn Statement 2023", "path": "data/populations-pmd/d48b25d7ef1f5e94.json", "claims": 990, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 990, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 990 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 990 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1970", "label": "Budget 1970", "path": "data/populations-pmd/8fd410f5f9be85d7.json", "claims": 2, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 2, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 2 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 2 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1971", "label": "Budget 1971", "path": "data/populations-pmd/9a7bb45e4d51ea6f.json", "claims": 6, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 6, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 6 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 6 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1972", "label": "Budget 1972", "path": "data/populations-pmd/e20727402987dd7a.json", "claims": 10, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 10, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 10 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 10 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1973", "label": "Budget 1973", "path": "data/populations-pmd/20634a963c9e8b86.json", "claims": 4, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 4, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 4 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 4 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1974", "label": "Budget 1974", "path": "data/populations-pmd/d3afedc417dfd787.json", "claims": 28, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 28, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { 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0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 20 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 20 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1978", "label": "Budget 1978", "path": "data/populations-pmd/f0aa9987b4ca3fd1.json", "claims": 12, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 12, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 12 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 12 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1979", "label": "Budget 1979", "path": "data/populations-pmd/b1edfc48619aac5b.json", "claims": 30, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 30, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 30 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 30 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1980", "label": "Budget 1980", "path": "data/populations-pmd/4b6ba92e18ab981e.json", "claims": 46, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 46, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 46 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 46 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1981", "label": "Budget 1981", "path": "data/populations-pmd/1466ee9619abf183.json", "claims": 28, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 28, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 28 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 28 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1982", "label": "Budget 1982", "path": "data/populations-pmd/7467deec8971ce1b.json", "claims": 36, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 36, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 36 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 36 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1983", "label": "Budget 1983", "path": "data/populations-pmd/0e55b547d0e506d2.json", "claims": 26, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 26, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 26 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 26 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1984", "label": "Budget 1984", "path": "data/populations-pmd/71ec62ebf8802d8f.json", "claims": 16, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 16, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 16 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 16 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1985", "label": "Budget 1985", "path": "data/populations-pmd/80188c720b9dc19b.json", "claims": 14, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 14, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 14 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 14 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1986", "label": "Budget 1986", "path": "data/populations-pmd/fd01c190b8d50113.json", "claims": 22, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 22, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 22 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 22 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1987", "label": "Budget 1987", "path": "data/populations-pmd/37fd8f8a50a4ee33.json", "claims": 28, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 28, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 28 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 28 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1988", "label": "Budget 1988", "path": "data/populations-pmd/ecfff96546935e96.json", "claims": 26, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 26, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 26 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 26 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1989", "label": "Budget 1989", "path": "data/populations-pmd/5b7584933abc6f6b.json", "claims": 26, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 26, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 26 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 26 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1990", "label": "Budget 1990", "path": "data/populations-pmd/f62a0eae0a18b195.json", "claims": 24, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 24, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 24 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 24 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1991", "label": "Budget 1991", "path": "data/populations-pmd/e088953db1235384.json", "claims": 32, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 32, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 32 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 32 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1992", "label": "Budget 1992", "path": "data/populations-pmd/c9c6496e85d265c3.json", "claims": 22, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 22, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 22 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 22 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1993", "label": "Budget 1993", "path": "data/populations-pmd/b5f2f59c74690a48.json", "claims": 60, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 60, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 60 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 60 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "budget_1993_2", "label": "Budget 1993 #2", "path": "data/populations-pmd/959d3337a1166e51.json", "claims": 60, "with_result": 0, "with_value": 0, "without_result": 60, "multi_release_claims": 0, "by_latest_status": { "not_computed": 60 }, "by_benchmark_class": { "different_model": 60 } }, { "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", 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Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8130638206637497, "delta": -1177697.929818377 }, "results": [ { "value": 5122302.070181623, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 A2, confidence high] SSI: PE's payable eligibility is low for aged and disabled individuals, so rates run high", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/644" } }, { "claim_id": "81d8f3c5e1aa27758ad1", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 10: 2023, participating", "name": "TANF families participating", "window": "2023", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participant_count", "unit_concept": "families", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "tanf", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "tanf" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 857000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 857000.0, "calibration_relationship": "seed_source", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 911040.7938822575, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 SPM units with tanf_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible) and tanf > 0 (participating) over the year \u2014 any-time-in-year counts: State TANF programs mix YEAR and MONTH periods, so no average-month count exists.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "PolicyEngine counts SPM units with a TANF entitlement (and a payment) at any time in 2024, because its State TANF programs mix yearly and monthly periods; ASPE counts TRIM3 assistance units in an average month. Any-time counts run above average-month counts, so only the rate is compared as a like quantity." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 1.0630581025463914, "delta": 54040.79388225754 }, "results": [ { "value": 911040.7938822575, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 SPM units with tanf_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible) and tanf > 0 (participating) over the year \u2014 any-time-in-year counts: State TANF programs mix YEAR and MONTH periods, so no average-month count exists.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "PolicyEngine counts SPM units with a TANF entitlement (and a payment) at any time in 2024, because its State TANF programs mix yearly and monthly periods; ASPE counts TRIM3 assistance units in an average month. Any-time counts run above average-month counts, so only the rate is compared as a like quantity." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1612891431432cd4b731", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 12: 2023, participating (aged_65plus_individuals)", "name": "SSI units participating, aged 65+ individuals", "window": "2023", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participant_count", "unit_concept": "benefit_units", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "subgroup": "aged_65plus_individuals" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1725869.1833555384, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8218424682645421, "delta": -374130.8166444616 }, "results": [ { "value": 1725869.1833555384, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 A2, confidence high] SSI: PE's payable eligibility is low for aged and disabled individuals, so rates run high", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/644" } }, { "claim_id": "9a270b168e1af27db400", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 12: 2023, participating (couples)", "name": "SSI units participating, married couples", "window": "2023", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participant_count", "unit_concept": "benefit_units", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "subgroup": "couples" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 200000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 200000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 416988.0796007731, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.0849403980038654, "delta": 216988.0796007731 }, "results": [ { "value": 416988.0796007731, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 A3, confidence medium] SSI couples: take-up is drawn per person at age-band priors with no couple dimension, so PE couples participate at the band rate, twice TRIM3's", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1212" } }, { "claim_id": "3d1a1df908d4c11d00de", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 12: 2023, participating (disabled_individuals)", "name": "SSI units participating, disabled individuals", "window": "2023", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participant_count", "unit_concept": "benefit_units", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "subgroup": "disabled_individuals" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 3900000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 3900000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 3801304.244073983, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9746933959164058, "delta": -98695.75592601718 }, "results": [ { "value": 3801304.244073983, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e789ba9012b6a7736830", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 11: Fiscal Year 2022, rate", "name": "SNAP participation rate (households)", "window": "FY 2022", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "households", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.916, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.916, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9645401631430174, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible) and snap > 0 (participating) in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False every month).", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE republishes FNS's national household series: households eligible under federal rules, average month of the fiscal year. PolicyEngine counts SPM units in the same federal-rules world as the FNS State lane (BBCE turned off every month), averaged over 2024.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participating units are calibrated to FNS household counts, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0529914444792765, "delta": 0.048540163143017345 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9645401631430174, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible) and snap > 0 (participating) in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False every month).", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE republishes FNS's national household series: households eligible under federal rules, average month of the fiscal year. PolicyEngine counts SPM units in the same federal-rules world as the FNS State lane (BBCE turned off every month), averaged over 2024.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participating units are calibrated to FNS household counts, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "concept_mismatch", "rationale": "[batch3 A4, confidence high] SNAP households: PE SPM units are fewer and larger than FNS SNAP households", "action_link": "diagnosis/batch3/A.md" } }, { "claim_id": "90476087446a6d8c192f", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 10: 2023, rate", "name": "TANF participation rate (families)", "window": "2023", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "tanf", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "tanf", "rate_unit": "families" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.221, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.221, "calibration_relationship": "seed_source", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.41169902206819786, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 SPM units with tanf_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible) and tanf > 0 (participating) over the year \u2014 any-time-in-year counts: State TANF programs mix YEAR and MONTH periods, so no average-month count exists.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "PolicyEngine's TANF take-up flag is seeded at 21.9%, the 2022 value of this very table in the 24th report. Calibration then reweights units toward ACF TANF cash-assistance dollar targets (national and 22 States; the national target is missed by 36%), so the weighted rate does not stay at the seed. Measured: the flag is on for 23.8% of PolicyEngine's eligible units (unweighted); the weighted rate is 41.2%.", "PolicyEngine counts SPM units with a TANF entitlement (and a payment) at any time in 2024, because its State TANF programs mix yearly and monthly periods; ASPE counts TRIM3 assistance units in an average month. Any-time counts run above average-month counts, so only the rate is compared as a like quantity." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.862891502571031, "delta": 0.19069902206819786 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.41169902206819786, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 SPM units with tanf_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible) and tanf > 0 (participating) over the year \u2014 any-time-in-year counts: State TANF programs mix YEAR and MONTH periods, so no average-month count exists.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "PolicyEngine's TANF take-up flag is seeded at 21.9%, the 2022 value of this very table in the 24th report. Calibration then reweights units toward ACF TANF cash-assistance dollar targets (national and 22 States; the national target is missed by 36%), so the weighted rate does not stay at the seed. Measured: the flag is on for 23.8% of PolicyEngine's eligible units (unweighted); the weighted rate is 41.2%.", "PolicyEngine counts SPM units with a TANF entitlement (and a payment) at any time in 2024, because its State TANF programs mix yearly and monthly periods; ASPE counts TRIM3 assistance units in an average month. Any-time counts run above average-month counts, so only the rate is compared as a like quantity." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 A1, confidence high] TANF rate: the 21.9% seed becomes 41.2% after calibration to ACF dollar targets", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/643" } }, { "claim_id": "8050bfbfe32384dbb775", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 12: 2023, rate (aged_65plus_individuals)", "name": "SSI participation rate (units), aged 65+ individuals", "window": "2023", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "rate_unit": "benefit_units", "subgroup": "aged_65plus_individuals" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.499, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.499, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.5994815680557467, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2013658678471877, "delta": 0.1004815680557467 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.5994815680557467, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 A2, confidence high] SSI: PE's payable eligibility is low for aged and disabled individuals, so rates run high", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/644" } }, { "claim_id": "ed80074897225e861cc2", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 12: 2023, rate (couples)", "name": "SSI participation rate (units), married couples", "window": "2023", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "rate_unit": "benefit_units", "subgroup": "couples" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.227, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.227, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.41881050560670635, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.8449802009106007, "delta": 0.19181050560670634 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.41881050560670635, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 A3, confidence medium] SSI couples: take-up is drawn per person at age-band priors with no couple dimension, so PE couples participate at the band rate, twice TRIM3's", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1212" } }, { "claim_id": "1c9c60dcf56f22e9a6e5", "source": "aspe_welfare_indicators", "country": "US", "source_column": "25th report, Appendix Table 12: 2023, rate (disabled_individuals)", "name": "SSI participation rate (units), disabled individuals", "window": "2023", "publication_title": "Welfare Indicators and Risk Factors: 25th Report to Congress", "url": "https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/welfare-indicators-risk-factors-twenty-fifth-report-congress", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "ssi", "rate_unit": "benefit_units", "subgroup": "disabled_individuals" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.621, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.621, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7421085660298044, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). Level differences can come from the gap as well as from the models.", "ASPE counts TRIM3 adult units: one-person units aged 65 and older, one-person disabled units, and married couples; children are excluded. PolicyEngine counts adults with an SSI payment due (and paid) in an average 2024 month, treats joint claims as couple units, and splits the others at age 65.", "PolicyEngine's SSI recipients are calibrated to SSA recipient counts and payments, so participants agree largely by construction; the eligible count is the out-of-sample part." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1950218454586221, "delta": 0.12110856602980435 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7421085660298044, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: adults 18+ with ssi_if_takes_up > 0 (eligible for a payment) and ssi > 0 (participating); joint claims (ssi_claim_is_joint) are couple units (persons / 2), others one-person units, aged if 65+ else disabled.", "policyengine_variables": [ "tanf", "tanf_if_takes_up", "takes_up_tanf_if_eligible", "ssi", "ssi_if_takes_up", "ssi_claim_is_joint", "age", "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T14:26:55.913867+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; ASPE's latest values are 2023 (TANF, SSI) and fiscal 2022 (SNAP). 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"data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__package_total_policy_decisions", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "Parameters: none searched \u2014 a macro-fiscal aggregate names no engine lever; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/55" } }, { 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413000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 413000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 621910038.0736201, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "level:ca_yctc", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.5058354432775305, "delta": 208910038.07362008 }, "results": [ { "value": 572858122.8276322, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.752.2", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701", "release": "l0-refit", "construction": "level:ca_yctc", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 641544372.2220612, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z", "release": "buildi", "construction": "level:ca_yctc", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 596007571.7019713, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z", "release": "buildj", "construction": "level:ca_yctc", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 579675158.4393413, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z", "release": "buildo", "construction": "level:ca_yctc", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 621910038.0736201, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "level:ca_yctc", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "concept_mismatch", "rationale": "[batch2 D6, confidence medium] Flat refundable child credits (CA YCTC, CO FAC, MD CTC): PE pays full entitlement to every eligible unit, benchmarks count claims", "action_link": "diagnosis/batch2/D.md" } }, { "claim_id": "43bccb3194d42f0ce03d", "source": "ca_fiscal_note", "country": "US", "source_column": "arev_898_ab397.pdf: FISCAL EFFECT: The FTB estimates General Fund revenue losses of $220 million in fiscal year (FY) 2025-26, $370 million in FY 2026-27, and $550 million in FY 2027-28.", "name": "CA AB 397 \u2014 young child tax credit age limit", "window": "FY 2025-26", "publication_title": "Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation analysis of AB 397 (Mark Gonz\u00e1lez, et al.), as introduced 2025-02-03; hearing 2025-04-28", "url": "https://arev.assembly.ca.gov/media/898", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "ca_yctc", "conditions": { "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "CA", "measure": "AB 397 (as introduced 2025-02-03)", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ca_yctc" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7f95f4126bc253b7", "external_value": -220000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "us_signed_change", "external_value_pe_sign": -220000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -325397044.6854553, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2025-26 <- tax year 2025.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2025 with the age limit at 10: 305 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $325 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $643 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4790774758429788, "delta": -105397044.68545532 }, "results": [ { "value": -325397044.6854553, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2025-26 <- tax year 2025.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2025 with the age limit at 10: 305 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $325 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $643 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6649aa4419f859fe78d6", "source": "ca_fiscal_note", "country": "US", "source_column": "arev_898_ab397.pdf: FISCAL EFFECT: The FTB estimates General Fund revenue losses of $220 million in fiscal year (FY) 2025-26, $370 million in FY 2026-27, and $550 million in FY 2027-28.", "name": "CA AB 397 \u2014 young child tax credit age limit", "window": "FY 2026-27", "publication_title": "Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation analysis of AB 397 (Mark Gonz\u00e1lez, et al.), as introduced 2025-02-03; hearing 2025-04-28", "url": "https://arev.assembly.ca.gov/media/898", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "ca_yctc", "conditions": { "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "CA", "measure": "AB 397 (as introduced 2025-02-03)", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ca_yctc" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7f95f4126bc253b7", "external_value": -370000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "us_signed_change", "external_value_pe_sign": -370000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -611108797.7138672, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2026-27 <- tax year 2026.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2026 with the age limit at 13: 545 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $611 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $658 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.651645399226668, "delta": -241108797.7138672 }, "results": [ { "value": -611108797.7138672, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2026-27 <- tax year 2026.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2026 with the age limit at 13: 545 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $611 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $658 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "64e2e34b6c178ec3436b", "source": "ca_fiscal_note", "country": "US", "source_column": "arev_898_ab397.pdf: FISCAL EFFECT: The FTB estimates General Fund revenue losses of $220 million in fiscal year (FY) 2025-26, $370 million in FY 2026-27, and $550 million in FY 2027-28.", "name": "CA AB 397 \u2014 young child tax credit age limit", "window": "FY 2027-28", "publication_title": "Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation analysis of AB 397 (Mark Gonz\u00e1lez, et al.), as introduced 2025-02-03; hearing 2025-04-28", "url": "https://arev.assembly.ca.gov/media/898", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "ca_yctc", "conditions": { "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "CA", "measure": "AB 397 (as introduced 2025-02-03)", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ca_yctc" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7f95f4126bc253b7", "external_value": -550000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "us_signed_change", "external_value_pe_sign": -550000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -840426142.3583679, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2027-28 <- tax year 2027.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2027 with the age limit at 16: 700 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $840 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $659 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.528047531560669, "delta": -290426142.3583679 }, "results": [ { "value": -840426142.3583679, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2027-28 <- tax year 2027.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2027 with the age limit at 16: 700 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $840 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $659 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a9a35949327ea626b6a3", "source": "ca_fiscal_note", "country": "US", "source_column": "arev_969_ab1690.pdf: FISCAL EFFECT: The FTB estimates General Fund revenue losses of $60 million in fiscal year (FY) 2027-28 and $130 million in FY 2028-29.", "name": "CA AB 1690 \u2014 young child tax credit age limit", "window": "FY 2027-28", "publication_title": "Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation analysis of AB 1690 (Ahrens), as introduced 2026-02-03; hearing 2026-03-16", "url": "https://arev.assembly.ca.gov/media/969", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "ca_yctc", "conditions": { "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "CA", "measure": "AB 1690 (as introduced 2026-02-03)", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ca_yctc" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7a477ac9eea4f5a6", "external_value": -60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "us_signed_change", "external_value_pe_sign": -60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -43005002.122528076, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2027-28 <- tax year 2027.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2027 with the age limit at 7: 34 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $43 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $659 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7167500353754679, "delta": 16994997.877471924 }, "results": [ { "value": -43005002.122528076, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2027-28 <- tax year 2027.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2027 with the age limit at 7: 34 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $43 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $659 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c9b762228722c8e68305", "source": "ca_fiscal_note", "country": "US", "source_column": "state.ca.ab2591", "name": "CA AB2591 \u2014 standard deduction increase", "window": "first full year (FY2027-28)", "publication_title": "CA FTB via Assembly Revenue & Taxation analysis", "url": "https://trackbill.com/s3/bills/CA/2025/AB2591", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": null, "conditions": { "geography": "CA" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a8f8aa819449e6cf", "external_value": -7000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "us_signed_change", "external_value_pe_sign": -7000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -6472662333.456696, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9246660476366708, "delta": 527337666.54330444 }, "results": [ { "value": -5951172549.383606, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.729.0", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701", "release": "l0-refit", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -6461187332.940857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z", "release": "buildi", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -6387695352.5572815, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z", "release": "buildj", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -6408273121.757233, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z", "release": "buildo", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -6472662333.456696, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d83782d7c4ebcd066dfe", "source": "ca_fiscal_note", "country": "US", "source_column": "arev_969_ab1690.pdf: FISCAL EFFECT: The FTB estimates General Fund revenue losses of $60 million in fiscal year (FY) 2027-28 and $130 million in FY 2028-29.", "name": "CA AB 1690 \u2014 young child tax credit age limit", "window": "FY 2028-29", "publication_title": "Assembly Committee on Revenue and Taxation analysis of AB 1690 (Ahrens), as introduced 2026-02-03; hearing 2026-03-16", "url": "https://arev.assembly.ca.gov/media/969", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "ca_yctc", "conditions": { "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "CA", "measure": "AB 1690 (as introduced 2026-02-03)", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ca_yctc" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7a477ac9eea4f5a6", "external_value": -130000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "us_signed_change", "external_value_pe_sign": -130000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -137673426.48529053, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2028-29 <- tax year 2028.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2028 with the age limit at 8: 108 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $138 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $661 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0590263575791579, "delta": -7673426.485290527 }, "results": [ { "value": -137673426.48529053, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:ca_income_tax \u2014 weighted total of ca_income_tax with gov.states.ca.tax.income.credits.young_child.ineligible_age set year by year, minus the baseline total, per tax year on the certified bundle (static, no behavioural response). Fiscal year 2028-29 <- tax year 2028.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_yctc" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-19T22:50:17.506603+00:00", "annotations": [ "FTB states a revenue change for a State fiscal year (July to June). PolicyEngine computes the tax year whose returns are filed in that fiscal year (fiscal 2025-26 from tax year 2025): the YCTC is refundable and is paid when returns are filed. Timing effects inside the year are not modelled.", "PolicyEngine's value is static, with no behavioural response. The committee analysis does not state FTB's method.", "The estimate is for the bill as introduced. FTB re-estimates each amended version, so a later version's fiscal note can differ.", "PolicyEngine's baseline YCTC is $643 million in tax year 2025, against FTB's reported $413 million for tax year 2023. A baseline about 1.5 times FTB's scales the cost of any expansion of the credit.", "Measured: PolicyEngine tax year 2028 with the age limit at 8: 108 thousand more tax units with a YCTC and $138 million more credit, on a baseline YCTC of $661 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1de831292608256d5c2e", "source": "capital_economics", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "UK Autumn Budget 2025: Economic, financial and housing market implications (key-issues hub; abstracts of the Focus notes)", "window": "", "publication_title": "UK Autumn Budget 2025: Economic, financial and housing market implications (key-issues hub; abstracts of the Focus notes)", "url": "https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-budget", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "package_tax_rise_size", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "horizon": "2029-30", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_total_tax_policy_decisions", "measure_type": "expected tax rises in the Budget", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The package total sums measures the household model cannot express (business taxes, administrative yields, departmental spending). 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"populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "level:in_poverty", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0529280453365382, "delta": 0.006616005667067271 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.13704122259072649, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z", "release": "buildo", "construction": "level:in_poverty", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 0.13161600566706727, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "level:in_poverty", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": 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0.083, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0789481576077373, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "level:in_poverty", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9511826217799674, "delta": -0.004051842392262708 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.08282431488411907, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z", "release": "buildo", "construction": "level:in_poverty", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 0.0789481576077373, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "level:in_poverty", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6e5d908000025651e7d2", "source": "census_pep", "country": "US", "source_column": "federal.ubi_mechanical", "name": "UBI mechanical check \u2014 $1,200/person/year", "window": "CY2024", "publication_title": "Mechanical: Census PEP Vintage 2024 national resident population (340,110,988) x $1,200", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html", "metric": "benefit_cost", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2024, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": null, "conditions": { "geography": "US" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e78b81ad29dc6a7", "external_value": 408133185600.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 408133185600.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 408092786329.72894, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:basic_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9999010144930712, "delta": -40399270.27105713 }, "results": [ { "value": 408096006624.46716, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z", "release": "buildo", "construction": "reform_delta:basic_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" }, { "value": 408092786329.72894, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:basic_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5130c7b217ced087cb71", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, AL", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Alabama", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending September 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AL", "program": "al_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "AL", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "al_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 5119611000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 5119611000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 6149327668.9033375, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "al_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $6,152 million against $5,120 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2011318181993393, "delta": 1029716668.9033375 }, "results": [ { "value": 6149327668.9033375, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "al_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $6,152 million against $5,120 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d783f6e44c6aa263373c", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, AR", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Arkansas", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AR", "program": "ar_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "AR", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ar_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2930657000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2930657000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2571103499.8804398, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ar_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,574 million against $2,931 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.877313005200008, "delta": -359553500.11956024 }, "results": [ { "value": 2571103499.8804398, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ar_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,574 million against $2,931 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c6d9acabb92d8694bfe5", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, AZ", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Arizona", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AZ", "program": "az_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "AZ", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "az_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 5239526000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 5239526000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 5617449706.875348, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "az_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $5,617 million against $5,240 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0721293695031475, "delta": 377923706.8753481 }, "results": [ { "value": 5617449706.875348, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "az_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $5,617 million against $5,240 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bd7d2ff63ab85b766fda", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, CA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, California", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "ca_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "CA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ca_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 96379294000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 96379294000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 121198406078.06583, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $122,340 million against $96,379 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2575149811542075, "delta": 24819112078.065826 }, "results": [ { "value": 121198406078.06583, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ca_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $122,340 million against $96,379 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5dd6ca6ad0eef1f5d66d", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, CO", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Colorado", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CO", "program": "co_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "CO", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "co_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 6780832000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 6780832000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 7836233706.175234, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "co_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $7,829 million against $6,781 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1556448686791287, "delta": 1055401706.1752338 }, "results": [ { "value": 7836233706.175234, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "co_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $7,829 million against $6,781 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f7e4709e84c344d15078", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, CT", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Connecticut", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CT", "program": "ct_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "CT", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ct_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 9584927000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 9584927000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 12507579724.73016, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ct_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $12,508 million against $9,585 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3049217510712559, "delta": 2922652724.7301598 }, "results": [ { "value": 12507579724.73016, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ct_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $12,508 million against $9,585 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c87a86e8f3284a8d5484", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, DC", "name": "Individual income tax collections, District of Columbia", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "DC", "program": "dc_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "DC", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "dc_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 3048229000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 3048229000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 3245098502.954582, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "dc_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $3,245 million against $3,048 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0645848795988038, "delta": 196869502.9545822 }, "results": [ { "value": 3245098502.954582, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "dc_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $3,245 million against $3,048 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "74c952bdef4216b6a13e", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, DE", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Delaware", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "DE", "program": "de_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "DE", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "de_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2425836000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2425836000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2103452509.2365518, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "de_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,103 million against $2,426 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8671041691344971, "delta": -322383490.76344824 }, "results": [ { "value": 2103452509.2365518, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "de_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,103 million against $2,426 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "06821ef737e34ea2eb5b", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, GA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Georgia", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "GA", "program": "ga_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "GA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ga_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 16970544000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 16970544000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 16948745463.226126, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ga_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $16,953 million against $16,971 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9987155074832089, "delta": -21798536.773874283 }, "results": [ { "value": 16948745463.226126, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ga_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $16,953 million against $16,971 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "67de2d9c283fb578d958", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, HI", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Hawaii", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "HI", "program": "hi_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "HI", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "hi_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 3099978000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 3099978000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 3102509174.3252964, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "hi_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $3,098 million against $3,100 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0008165136414828, "delta": 2531174.325296402 }, "results": [ { "value": 3102509174.3252964, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "hi_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $3,098 million against $3,100 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "112f9194a8a4eeb18997", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, IA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Iowa", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IA", "program": "ia_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "IA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ia_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 4635011000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 4635011000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 4760918465.774061, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ia_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $4,761 million against $4,635 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0271644373172062, "delta": 125907465.7740612 }, "results": [ { "value": 4760918465.774061, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ia_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $4,761 million against $4,635 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "57e2686d00f436b24409", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, ID", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Idaho", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ID", "program": "id_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "ID", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "id_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2141870000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2141870000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2773905628.023654, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "id_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,719 million against $2,142 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2950858959804534, "delta": 632035628.023654 }, "results": [ { "value": 2773905628.023654, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "id_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,719 million against $2,142 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "87d58a7d5838e8690076", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, IL", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Illinois", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IL", "program": "il_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "IL", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "il_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 23264505000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 23264505000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 26886980299.596394, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "il_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $26,887 million against $23,265 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1557082473749771, "delta": 3622475299.5963936 }, "results": [ { "value": 26886980299.596394, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "il_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $26,887 million against $23,265 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5619d7d57f72e36cdbd0", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, IN", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Indiana", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IN", "program": "in_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "IN", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "in_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 7575900000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 7575900000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 7632680896.791352, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $7,633 million against $7,576 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.007494937471634, "delta": 56780896.79135227 }, "results": [ { "value": 7632680896.791352, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $7,633 million against $7,576 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "dede3c751aa141de61e2", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, KS", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Kansas", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KS", "program": "ks_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "KS", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ks_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 4507007000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 4507007000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 4780152951.509518, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ks_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $4,780 million against $4,507 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0606047320338126, "delta": 273145951.50951767 }, "results": [ { "value": 4780152951.509518, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ks_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $4,780 million against $4,507 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a5b8379fe7b5ceaaca92", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, KY", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Kentucky", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KY", "program": "ky_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "KY", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ky_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 6037886000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 6037886000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 5162486670.999652, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ky_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $5,162 million against $6,038 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8550155917153208, "delta": -875399329.0003481 }, "results": [ { "value": 5162486670.999652, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ky_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $5,162 million against $6,038 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9fd056e222791cdf517f", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, LA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Louisiana", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "LA", "program": "la_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "LA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "la_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 4678963000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 4678963000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 5012616585.315062, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "la_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $5,013 million against $4,679 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0713093019361473, "delta": 333653585.31506157 }, "results": [ { "value": 5012616585.315062, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "la_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $5,013 million against $4,679 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "17d0f1f668d0a679c333", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, MA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Massachusetts", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MA", "program": "ma_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ma_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 19753739000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 19753739000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 21185004931.928116, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ma_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $21,321 million against $19,754 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.072455444102411, "delta": 1431265931.9281158 }, "results": [ { "value": 21185004931.928116, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ma_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $21,321 million against $19,754 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5bccb1d0a886bd4a5c65", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, MD", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Maryland", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MD", "program": "md_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MD", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "md_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 9711372000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 9711372000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 12635447047.635504, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "md_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Census T40 counts the State government's own income tax. The PolicyEngine value is the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax), without the county income taxes (Maryland) or the New York City income tax that the engine's state_income_tax adds. The us-6.2.1 calibration measures this State's FY2023 target with state_income_tax, local taxes included, so its calibrated estimate is not comparable with the target.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $20,913 million against $9,711 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3010980371913983, "delta": 2924075047.635504 }, "results": [ { "value": 12635447047.635504, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "md_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Census T40 counts the State government's own income tax. The PolicyEngine value is the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax), without the county income taxes (Maryland) or the New York City income tax that the engine's state_income_tax adds. The us-6.2.1 calibration measures this State's FY2023 target with state_income_tax, local taxes included, so its calibrated estimate is not comparable with the target.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $20,913 million against $9,711 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4043af26d9ba54928b60", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, ME", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Maine", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ME", "program": "me_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "ME", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "me_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2481964000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2481964000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2425586872.058895, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "me_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,430 million against $2,482 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9772852757166886, "delta": -56377127.94110489 }, "results": [ { "value": 2425586872.058895, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "me_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,430 million against $2,482 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e7178d7e37a8cce76a52", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, MI", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Michigan", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending September 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MI", "program": "mi_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MI", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "mi_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 11516497000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 11516497000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 12867678412.15971, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "mi_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $12,762 million against $11,516 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.117325729530404, "delta": 1351181412.15971 }, "results": [ { "value": 12867678412.15971, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "mi_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $12,762 million against $11,516 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5d1bbe4f60b3f49b9c20", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, MN", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Minnesota", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MN", "program": "mn_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MN", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "mn_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 13250842000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 13250842000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 14871712010.908852, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "mn_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $14,872 million against $13,251 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.122322038924685, "delta": 1620870010.9088516 }, "results": [ { "value": 14871712010.908852, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "mn_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $14,872 million against $13,251 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "11c5dde3d44b11043cfc", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, MO", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Missouri", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MO", "program": "mo_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MO", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "mo_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 8677784000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 8677784000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 8436205679.973241, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "mo_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $8,428 million against $8,678 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9721612891002174, "delta": -241578320.02675915 }, "results": [ { "value": 8436205679.973241, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "mo_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $8,428 million against $8,678 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9a88e8faf4dc6f657f71", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, MS", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Mississippi", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MS", "program": "ms_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MS", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ms_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2459002000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2459002000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2113144258.1823113, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ms_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,117 million against $2,459 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8593503617249239, "delta": -345857741.8176887 }, "results": [ { "value": 2113144258.1823113, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ms_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,117 million against $2,459 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "caff3c6fc3990748eb20", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, MT", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Montana", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MT", "program": "mt_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MT", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "mt_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2286844000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2286844000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2183611548.2519712, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "mt_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,180 million against $2,287 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9548581137375226, "delta": -103232451.74802876 }, "results": [ { "value": 2183611548.2519712, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "mt_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,180 million against $2,287 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bb1e8db134bacbc452a3", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, NC", "name": "Individual income tax collections, North Carolina", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NC", "program": "nc_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NC", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "nc_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 16855693000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 16855693000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 16298991343.434587, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nc_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $16,197 million against $16,856 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9669724848117837, "delta": -556701656.5654125 }, "results": [ { "value": 16298991343.434587, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nc_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $16,197 million against $16,856 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "420bd569a7e4665ce861", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, ND", "name": "Individual income tax collections, North Dakota", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ND", "program": "nd_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "ND", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "nd_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 495437000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 495437000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 293772783.2827058, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nd_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $294 million against $495 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5929568911540838, "delta": -201664216.71729422 }, "results": [ { "value": 293772783.2827058, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nd_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $294 million against $495 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "71ccd1b2a0be5bddddaf", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, NE", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Nebraska", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NE", "program": "ne_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NE", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ne_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 3005952000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 3005952000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 3089034186.964197, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ne_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $3,089 million against $3,006 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.027639226096823, "delta": 83082186.96419716 }, "results": [ { "value": 3089034186.964197, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ne_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $3,089 million against $3,006 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1fa1595e04f13d77b90b", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, NH", "name": "Individual income tax collections, New Hampshire", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NH", "program": "nh_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NH", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "nh_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 149485000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 149485000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 92893678.92235962, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nh_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $93 million against $149 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6214247511279367, "delta": -56591321.077640384 }, "results": [ { "value": 92893678.92235962, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nh_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $93 million against $149 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d5dffca11adc26c30153", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, NJ", "name": "Individual income tax collections, New Jersey", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NJ", "program": "nj_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NJ", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "nj_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 18506010000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 18506010000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 24212850666.72048, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nj_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $24,212 million against $18,506 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3083776927992843, "delta": 5706840666.720482 }, "results": [ { "value": 24212850666.72048, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nj_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $24,212 million against $18,506 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f63327fa4ad9713288d6", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, NM", "name": "Individual income tax collections, New Mexico", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NM", "program": "nm_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NM", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "nm_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2646300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2646300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1962187263.2602901, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nm_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $1,962 million against $2,646 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7414833024450327, "delta": -684112736.7397099 }, "results": [ { "value": 1962187263.2602901, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nm_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $1,962 million against $2,646 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "02bcb1ec55b7391570c6", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, NY", "name": "Individual income tax collections, New York", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending March 31, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NY", "program": "ny_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NY", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ny_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 58775670000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 58775670000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 59189132991.12659, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ny_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Census T40 counts the State government's own income tax. The PolicyEngine value is the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax), without the county income taxes (Maryland) or the New York City income tax that the engine's state_income_tax adds. The us-6.2.1 calibration measures this State's FY2023 target with state_income_tax, local taxes included, so its calibrated estimate is not comparable with the target.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $71,272 million against $58,776 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0070345942653922, "delta": 413462991.1265869 }, "results": [ { "value": 59189132991.12659, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ny_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Census T40 counts the State government's own income tax. The PolicyEngine value is the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax), without the county income taxes (Maryland) or the New York City income tax that the engine's state_income_tax adds. The us-6.2.1 calibration measures this State's FY2023 target with state_income_tax, local taxes included, so its calibrated estimate is not comparable with the target.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $71,272 million against $58,776 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c1219e85b73e235e40c3", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, OH", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Ohio", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OH", "program": "oh_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "OH", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "oh_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 11310241000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 11310241000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 11326683212.3455, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "oh_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $11,327 million against $11,310 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0014537455342907, "delta": 16442212.345500946 }, "results": [ { "value": 11326683212.3455, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "oh_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $11,327 million against $11,310 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6b57bc8e65236d6276ca", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, OK", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Oklahoma", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OK", "program": "ok_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "OK", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ok_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 4393714000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 4393714000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 4842929361.512363, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ok_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $4,843 million against $4,394 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1022404647895525, "delta": 449215361.51236343 }, "results": [ { "value": 4842929361.512363, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ok_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $4,843 million against $4,394 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6b0d34e4d232f0292cdc", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, OR", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Oregon", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OR", "program": "or_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "OR", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "or_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 13173132000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 13173132000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 13219011890.586508, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "or_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $13,179 million against $13,173 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0034828384462031, "delta": 45879890.5865078 }, "results": [ { "value": 13219011890.586508, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "or_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $13,179 million against $13,173 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5ce9eaf5662378030a12", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, PA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Pennsylvania", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "PA", "program": "pa_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "PA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "pa_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 17006745000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 17006745000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 16970149645.558252, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "pa_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $16,997 million against $17,007 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.997848185855568, "delta": -36595354.441747665 }, "results": [ { "value": 16970149645.558252, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "pa_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $16,997 million against $17,007 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a9d2cc4067b8125be9fa", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, RI", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Rhode Island", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "RI", "program": "ri_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "RI", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ri_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1611789000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1611789000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1806786513.7744448, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ri_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $1,807 million against $1,612 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.120982035349816, "delta": 194997513.77444482 }, "results": [ { "value": 1806786513.7744448, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ri_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $1,807 million against $1,612 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "acb5d0bf5fea1a045a4a", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, SC", "name": "Individual income tax collections, South Carolina", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "SC", "program": "sc_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "SC", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "sc_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 5782274000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 5782274000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 7321182304.339768, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "sc_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $7,310 million against $5,782 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2661424042409213, "delta": 1538908304.3397684 }, "results": [ { "value": 7321182304.339768, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "sc_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $7,310 million against $5,782 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b0b601185a9fc34eb56c", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, UT", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Utah", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UT", "program": "ut_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "UT", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ut_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 5915817000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 5915817000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 6077070180.038615, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ut_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $6,077 million against $5,916 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.027257972996564, "delta": 161253180.03861523 }, "results": [ { "value": 6077070180.038615, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ut_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $6,077 million against $5,916 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aeaa88dd796396e289f4", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, VA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Virginia", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "VA", "program": "va_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "VA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "va_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 16645280000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 16645280000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 19150267465.445896, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "va_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $19,150 million against $16,645 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.15049235972275, "delta": 2504987465.445896 }, "results": [ { "value": 19150267465.445896, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "va_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $19,150 million against $16,645 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6f611d8f83b208bce4f3", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, VT", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Vermont", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "VT", "program": "vt_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "VT", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "vt_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1210585000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1210585000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1244848114.7689247, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "vt_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $1,240 million against $1,211 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0283029401231014, "delta": 34263114.76892471 }, "results": [ { "value": 1244848114.7689247, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "vt_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $1,240 million against $1,211 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c2088f52d402c1167268", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, WA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Washington", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WA", "program": "wa_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "WA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "wa_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 846835000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 846835000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 785374574.2910018, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "wa_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $848 million against $847 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9274233756174483, "delta": -61460425.7089982 }, "results": [ { "value": 785374574.2910018, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "wa_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $848 million against $847 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d61c748e3856c0b42ba8", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, WI", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Wisconsin", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WI", "program": "wi_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "WI", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "wi_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 9191233000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 9191233000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 10660637231.82012, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "wi_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $10,471 million against $9,191 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1598701971563685, "delta": 1469404231.8201199 }, "results": [ { "value": 10660637231.82012, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "wi_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $10,471 million against $9,191 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4672472b07d9f94cf37e", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2023-Flat-File.txt: T40, WV", "name": "Individual income tax collections, West Virginia", "window": "FY 2023 (12 months ending June 30, 2023)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2023, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WV", "program": "wv_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "WV", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "wv_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2693568000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2693568000.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2194051348.176288, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "wv_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,194 million against $2,694 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8145520544409082, "delta": -499516651.8237119 }, "results": [ { "value": 2194051348.176288, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "wv_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "This fiscal year is a us-6.2.1 calibration target, matched against the calendar-2024 State income tax. The targets are soft, so the calibrated value can still miss.", "Measured: the us-6.2.1 calibration's estimate for this target is $2,194 million against $2,694 million." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e3208c61e65588932799", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, AL", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Alabama", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending September 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AL", "program": "al_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "AL", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "al_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 5799729000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 5799729000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 6149327668.9033375, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "al_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0602784490281076, "delta": 349598668.9033375 }, "results": [ { "value": 6149327668.9033375, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "al_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f268458d9678775a1dcc", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, AR", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Arkansas", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AR", "program": "ar_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "AR", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ar_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2735758000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2735758000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2571103499.8804398, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ar_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9398139381774411, "delta": -164654500.11956024 }, "results": [ { "value": 2571103499.8804398, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ar_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9e1d8d74a8f9382f41f5", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, AZ", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Arizona", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AZ", "program": "az_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "AZ", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "az_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 5490362000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 5490362000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 5617449706.875348, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "az_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. 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States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "34f3c9d6773315d64533", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, KY", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Kentucky", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KY", "program": "ky_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "KY", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ky_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 4809075000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 4809075000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 5162486670.999652, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ky_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0734884922775485, "delta": 353411670.9996519 }, "results": [ { "value": 5162486670.999652, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ky_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "dae45047bd1366101e08", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, LA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Louisiana", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "LA", "program": "la_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "LA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "la_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 4755942000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 4755942000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 5012616585.315062, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "la_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.053969242121763, "delta": 256674585.31506157 }, "results": [ { "value": 5012616585.315062, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "la_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a9390d03b75c123bcdbe", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, MA", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Massachusetts", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MA", "program": "ma_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MA", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ma_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 24484941000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 24484941000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 21185004931.928116, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ma_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8652258925977447, "delta": -3299936068.071884 }, "results": [ { "value": 21185004931.928116, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ma_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "064903e9b5eeeec65ebf", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, MD", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Maryland", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MD", "program": "md_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MD", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "md_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 11704521000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 11704521000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 12635447047.635504, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "md_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "Census T40 counts the State government's own income tax. The PolicyEngine value is the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax), without the county income taxes (Maryland) or the New York City income tax that the engine's state_income_tax adds. The us-6.2.1 calibration measures this State's FY2023 target with state_income_tax, local taxes included, so its calibrated estimate is not comparable with the target." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0795355954878891, "delta": 930926047.6355038 }, "results": [ { "value": 12635447047.635504, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "md_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "Census T40 counts the State government's own income tax. The PolicyEngine value is the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax), without the county income taxes (Maryland) or the New York City income tax that the engine's state_income_tax adds. The us-6.2.1 calibration measures this State's FY2023 target with state_income_tax, local taxes included, so its calibrated estimate is not comparable with the target." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "230febe7c67d0aacc670", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, ME", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Maine", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ME", "program": "me_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "ME", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "me_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2729411000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2729411000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2425586872.058895, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "me_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8886850943514535, "delta": -303824127.9411049 }, "results": [ { "value": 2425586872.058895, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "me_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "be4e2cd93c139f65aa5e", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, MI", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Michigan", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending September 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MI", "program": "mi_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "MI", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "mi_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 12519952000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 12519952000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 12867678412.15971, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). 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A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nd_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1b71bcd06e917fbea9b2", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, NE", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Nebraska", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NE", "program": "ne_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NE", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ne_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2179934000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2179934000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 3089034186.964197, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ne_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4170310600982403, "delta": 909100186.9641972 }, "results": [ { "value": 3089034186.964197, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ne_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a11cacb1c5146cf59955", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, NH", "name": "Individual income tax collections, New Hampshire", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NH", "program": "nh_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NH", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "nh_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 91186000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 91186000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 92893678.92235962, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nh_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0187274244111992, "delta": 1707678.9223596156 }, "results": [ { "value": 92893678.92235962, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nh_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7e27196da87ecd00fa83", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, NJ", "name": "Individual income tax collections, New Jersey", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NJ", "program": "nj_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NJ", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "nj_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 21007331000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 21007331000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 24212850666.72048, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nj_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1525905250276907, "delta": 3205519666.720482 }, "results": [ { "value": 24212850666.72048, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nj_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4b4a553974776c052f64", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, NM", "name": "Individual income tax collections, New Mexico", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NM", "program": "nm_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NM", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "nm_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2518358000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2518358000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1962187263.2602901, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nm_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7791534258672874, "delta": -556170736.7397099 }, "results": [ { "value": 1962187263.2602901, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "nm_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "81c268c5db9e894e7180", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, NY", "name": "Individual income tax collections, New York", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending March 31, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NY", "program": "ny_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "NY", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "ny_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 61201732000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 61201732000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 59189132991.12659, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ny_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "Census T40 counts the State government's own income tax. The PolicyEngine value is the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax), without the county income taxes (Maryland) or the New York City income tax that the engine's state_income_tax adds. The us-6.2.1 calibration measures this State's FY2023 target with state_income_tax, local taxes included, so its calibrated estimate is not comparable with the target." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9671153259376154, "delta": -2012599008.873413 }, "results": [ { "value": 59189132991.12659, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ny_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe.", "Census T40 counts the State government's own income tax. The PolicyEngine value is the State's own variable (md_income_tax, ny_income_tax), without the county income taxes (Maryland) or the New York City income tax that the engine's state_income_tax adds. The us-6.2.1 calibration measures this State's FY2023 target with state_income_tax, local taxes included, so its calibrated estimate is not comparable with the target." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c39095bb3539533f7283", "source": "census_stc", "country": "US", "source_column": "FY2025-Flat-File.txt: T40, OH", "name": "Individual income tax collections, Ohio", "window": "FY 2025 (12 months ending June 30, 2025)", "publication_title": "Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html", "metric": "tax_collections", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OH", "program": "oh_income_tax", "conditions": { "geography": "OH", "line_item": "T40", "period_basis": "state_fiscal_year", "program": "oh_income_tax" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 10979911000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 10979911000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 11326683212.3455, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "oh_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. 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A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "oh_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. 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A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ok_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. 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A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "ok_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. 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A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "or_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. 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A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "or_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. 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A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "pa_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. 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States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0174621675129651, "delta": 37655348.17628813 }, "results": [ { "value": 2194051348.176288, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Weighted CY2024 total of _income_tax (tax units; the variable is defined for that State only) on the certified bundle: the State government's tax, as Census T40 counts it. state_income_tax summed over the State's tax units (state_code_str) is recorded beside it; it differs where the engine's sum adds local taxes (Maryland counties, New York City) or a State variable adds a fee (Idaho's $10 Permanent Building Fund tax, id_pbf). A tax-year liability, compared with fiscal-year collections.", "policyengine_variables": [ "wv_income_tax" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-15T17:33:01.520566+00:00", "annotations": [ "Census counts the cash a State collected in its fiscal year, net of refunds; PolicyEngine computes the tax-year 2024 liability. Withholding and estimated payments for one tax year fall in two fiscal years, and final payments and refunds arrive the next spring, so the two can differ even when the model is right.", "State fiscal years end on June 30 except in New York (March 31), Texas (August 31), Alabama and Michigan (September 30). PolicyEngine's calendar 2024 overlaps the second half of fiscal 2024 and the first half of fiscal 2025 in most States.", "Census counts the tax a State collects from activity within it, not only from its residents, so collections include nonresidents' tax. PolicyEngine computes the income tax of the State's residents. States where many nonresidents work collect more than their residents owe." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "18bd7de0a94f89f93121", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "\u2018small family farms\u2019 (APR/BPR share > 60% of estate and estate value < \u00a35m)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "Around 205" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 205.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 205.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3c1e260ca9e7f1b0ae5f", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable to Partnership NICs", "value_verbatim": "fewer than 200,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 200000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 200000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "46df6ca86f3afb28b3cc", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "farm estates worth less than \u00a32.5 million facing an increase larger than 5pp", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "only 15 estates per year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 15.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 15.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "68ac0ec09627fbf5c223", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "600" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 600.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 600.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6a8d41b3533288c956a0", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable to Partnership NICs", "value_verbatim": "N = 191,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 191000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 191000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8f0c4381d267f8345e0e", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "impacted farm estates facing a residual bill greater than 20% of farm income if paid in ten-year instalments", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "around 40" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 40.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 40.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a17c4e70222fae16d366", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "farm estates with an APR/BPR claim covering less than 20% of the estate (likely passive investors)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "15" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 15.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 15.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bc749fd76a7f2b00f38d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "farm estates facing an increase larger than 15pp (all valued at over \u00a37.5 million)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "25 farm estates per year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 25.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 25.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "becb3a4ca56283802104", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "impacted farm estates unable to pay the entire IHT bill from non-farm assets", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "around 70" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 70.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 70.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d87d1689705c1d36b359", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "480" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 480.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 480.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "07c86f0cf341d23f7054", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "incidence": "full incidence on partners, zero behavioural response", "income_concept": "total income (all taxpayers)", "income_group": "bottom_50pct", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "value_verbatim": "9%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.09, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.09, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0ac279ebf0fc2e1cc1bf", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all impacted farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "impacted estates worth over \u00a35 million", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "one third (34%)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.34, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.34, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "161493a4ad7c62082c22", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all impacted farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "impacted farm estates able to pay the entire IHT bill from non-farm assets", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "86%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.86, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.86, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1cd310dde631c7a8993a", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "impacted farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "owner-farmers", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "37%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.37, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.37, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2b856a4c916aab54352c", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "owner-farmers", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "17%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.17, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.17, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3c42d46558103a6c4513", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "incidence": "full incidence on partners, zero behavioural response", "income_concept": "total income (all taxpayers)", "income_group": "decile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "value_verbatim": "over 70%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6c99cc967c67651154cf", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all impacted farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); 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estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "landowners", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "42%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.42, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.42, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8d9c6962df61c1ac4eba", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "landowners", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "64%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.64, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.64, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9b2feb4ae5097533ab1d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all impacted farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "\u2018small family farms\u2019 (APR/BPR share > 60% of estate and estate value < \u00a35m)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "43%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.43, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.43, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c83b917ad39683802cd9", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all impacted farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "farm estates with an APR/BPR claim covering less than 20% of the estate (likely passive investors)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "3%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.03, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.03, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cdb9fe1471d5500b9c4a", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all farm estates benefiting from APR and/or BPR", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "farm estates with an APR/BPR claim covering less than 20% of the estate (likely passive investors)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "32%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.32, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.32, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "dd9740ec60bac7e3ff27", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "current partners with no additional tax due", "value_verbatim": "66%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.66, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.66, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f80248207818d1c8788e", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "all impacted farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "impacted farm estates with an effective tax rate increase of less than 5 percentage points", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "Almost half (49%)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.49, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.49, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "267c1a7ec3863a50bf35", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Activities of patent and copyright agents; other legal activities", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "86%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.86, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.86, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "460d663cc86766733479", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Real estate agencies", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "59%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.59, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.59, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "52794fa3c0b3c90b89c3", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Solicitors", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "95%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.95, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.95, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5ea0172645546be36f49", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Accounting, and auditing activities", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "78%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.78, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.78, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7762777b9345751c3b08", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Fund management activities", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "88%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.88, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.88, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "782b1f6910b428eb95d0", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Management consultancy activities", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "43%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.43, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.43, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "963225fa3f14ca14bfa6", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "General medical practice activities", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "96%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.96, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.96, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bdd823aed292ce118c3d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Mixed farming", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "24%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.24, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.24, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c27b0c9f8da10ddcf03e", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Other engineering activities", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "62%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.62, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.62, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "decfadf9039f5432d02a", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Share of partners liable", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Other activities auxiliary to financial services", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners liable", "value_verbatim": "77%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.77, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.77, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "39424c3f99dbae0df795", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-report-equalising-national-insurance-on-partnership-income-revenue-and-distributional-effects/", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2020, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Kensington", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2019-20", "geography": "Kensington", "geography_level": "westminster_constituency", "income_concept": "partnership income", "value_verbatim": "over \u00a31.8 billion" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c7b7c721113d67b997e8", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-report-equalising-national-insurance-on-partnership-income-revenue-and-distributional-effects/", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2020, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Liverpool Walton", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2019-20", "geography": "Liverpool Walton", "geography_level": "westminster_constituency", "income_concept": "partnership income", "value_verbatim": "\u00a31.5 million" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1500000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1500000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "837289e61d584e017a5d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregate": "tax_base", "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "subgroup": "partners with profits above the Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount (\u00a35,000)", "value_verbatim": "roughly 457,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 457000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 457000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "018aa4c394e949a59cd1", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "url": 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"construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6fdd04e776a274211c7f", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-report-equalising-national-insurance-on-partnership-income-revenue-and-distributional-effects/", "metric": "income_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2020, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": 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"range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2019-20", "geography": "UK", "industry": "finance (some sectors)", "statistic": "mean partnership income per partner", "value_verbatim": "an average of \u00a3600,000" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 600000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 600000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bfa6493e17ff6e1a4a0c", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-report-equalising-national-insurance-on-partnership-income-revenue-and-distributional-effects/", "metric": "income_statistic", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2020, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2019-20", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Solicitors", "statistic": "mean partnership profits per partner", "value_verbatim": "over \u00a3300,000" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "83d989408eeea9f3e6df", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-report-equalising-national-insurance-on-partnership-income-revenue-and-distributional-effects/", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "central", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "post_behavioural", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "elasticity_of_taxable_income": "0.25", "estimate_kind": "central", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural (elasticity of taxable income)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a31.9 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 1900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a448dc9745efa6983e9c", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Partnership Allowance (\u00a310,500)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = cost to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a30.6 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "553759c7e26cb171d67d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "1) Partnership NICs", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "1) Partnership NICs", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "+ \u00a34.5 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 4500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 4500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7d0446a0f073af80f03b", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2) Reduction in Income Tax", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "2) Reduction in Income Tax", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "- \u00a32.1 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": -2100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "97b3a76ea0354678e641", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "3) Reduction in Class 4 NICs", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "3) Reduction in Class 4 NICs", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "- \u00a30.1 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": -100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2345712f88107c55fc25", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "post_behavioural", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "elasticity_of_taxable_income": "0.2", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pct_change_from_static": "-16%", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural (elasticity of taxable income)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a32.0bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 2000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3fbe45c36f9589b16671", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "post_behavioural", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "elasticity_of_taxable_income": "0.0", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pct_change_from_static": "0%", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural (elasticity of taxable income)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a32.4bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 2400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3fd48d9c5f6a3f9c0af3", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "post_behavioural", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "elasticity_of_taxable_income": "0.5", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pct_change_from_static": "-40%", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural (elasticity of taxable income)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a31.5bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 1500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "634f275b4dfdd09234e7", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "post_behavioural", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "elasticity_of_taxable_income": "0.4", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pct_change_from_static": "-32%", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural (elasticity of taxable income)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a31.6bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 1600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "846236c1bfb91e75ce84", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "central", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "post_behavioural", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "elasticity_of_taxable_income": "0.25", "estimate_kind": "central", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pct_change_from_static": "-20%", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural (elasticity of taxable income)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a31.9bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 1900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c82e1a644f2046f466ee", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "post_behavioural", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "elasticity_of_taxable_income": "0.1", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pct_change_from_static": "-8%", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural (elasticity of taxable income)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a32.2bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 2200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f6c9e7c9656695defa3f", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "post_behavioural", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "elasticity_of_taxable_income": "0.3", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pct_change_from_static": "-24%", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural (elasticity of taxable income)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a31.8bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 1800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9a9fe656372d46f052f0", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total Revenue (1 + 2 + 3)", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "uprating": "2020 profits uprated to the 2027 tax year with OBR wage growth", "value_verbatim": "\u00a32.4 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 2400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0df6c8c2256fa9163705", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "General medical practice activities", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3250m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 250000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 250000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "15c8d74384618b5fc465", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Activities of patent and copyright agents; other legal activities", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3130m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 130000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 130000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1b8866507b7419a37efb", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Real estate agencies", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a340m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "296827c3966390e9d98d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Fund management activities", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a340m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "359ad146920307939c6d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Mixed farming", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a340m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4a10c136854a62c48528", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Other activities auxiliary to financial services", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3550m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 550000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 550000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "86d54b287ee03cad6c34", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Other engineering activities", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a330m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 30000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e46940249bd3f98bc33d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Accounting, and auditing activities", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3260m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 260000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 260000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e475d080867f76f9732c", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Solicitors", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3580m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 580000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 580000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f71d2dbf38caa8c8dfa1", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Total revenue raised", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "industry": "Management consultancy activities", "industry_classification": "5-digit SIC", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a380m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 80000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 80000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "68a9d11c877d33191133", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Central Scenario, tax year 2028: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Extensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "extensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "central", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ae9f698e34e48978505d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Central Scenario, tax year 2028: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Intensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "intensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "central", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 150000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 150000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5c7bdc603a26c62b390c", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Central Scenario, tax year 2028: Net Fiscal Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "net_fiscal_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "central", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -520000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -520000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 1.327759407536785, "delta": -170434891.91912818 }, "results": [ { "value": -434000000.0, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.102.3", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261002T230158Z-5c6b3f68", "release": "1002T230158Z", "construction": "published: the 30-hours leg of PolicyEngine's dashboard (https://policyengine.org/uk/childcare-100k-threshold), budget.gross_bn.thirty_hours (the 30-hours leg: extended, universal and targeted entitlements; budget.thirty_hours_components_bn puts it all in extended), year 2027 (FY 2027-28); PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold@f25f0db data/results.json (sha256 4193f13b2a1f); policyengine 6.2.1, dataset passed unmanaged (pinned_by_repo_unmanaged_by_bundle)", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-09T11:50:21+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only. The dashboard's reform also removed the Tax-Free Childcare limit; the figure here is its 30-hours leg, which excludes Tax-Free Childcare (the dashboard puts that leg at \u00a30.159bn in 2027-28 and \u00a30.173bn in 2029-30).", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. The dashboard names fiscal years by their start year (2027 is 2027-28) and compared its 2029-30 figure with CenTax's 2030.", "Published figure: \u00a30.434bn. Six local corrections applied to every run, baseline and reform alike (src/childcare_100k/corrections.py at f25f0db): exactly \u00a3100,000 qualifies; a partner on a specified benefit need not pass the minimum earnings test; the universal and targeted 15 hours are a floor that eligibility for the extended hours never removes (policyengine-uk#1930); salary sacrifice returned to pay from April 2029 is not income for the limits; Tax-Free Childcare regards a partner on a caring or incapacity benefit as in qualifying paid work; both schemes test the claimant and partner.", "microcosm#1126 (closed 2026-10-16) reports that this release draws maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage ~ clip(N(15.019, 4.972), 0, 30), a mean of about 15 of the 30 weekly hours, and derives DfE's mean as about 28.5 hours: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1126.", "On https://policyengine.org/uk/childcare-100k-threshold from 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-21: policyengine-app-v2 de2b07cf (2026-10-21T14:59:14Z), 'Take down the childcare cliff edge dashboard temporarily': it removes the listing, the featured card and the route, and redirects /uk/childcare-100k-threshold/:path* to /uk/research (permanent: false) 'while its costing is revised (uk-childcare-100k-threshold#8)'.", "Since then https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold/pull/8 merged (2026-10-24): the dashboard's own deployment, https://uk-childcare-100k-threshold.vercel.app/uk/childcare-100k-threshold (the repository's homepage; policyengine.org still redirects the page on 2026-10-25), serves \u00a30.902bn in this year from PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold@1b83dd4 on microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a with policyengine-uk 2.147.2. Not attached: policyengine.org does not serve it, and its Microcosm release is in no certified pair. When policyengine.org serves the page again, the figure it shows is a new published row." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" }, { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "80927270ac5c346db43a", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Central Scenario, tax year 2028: Static Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "static_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "central", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8630436148989102, "delta": 109565108.08087182 }, "results": [ { "value": -434000000.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.102.3", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261002T230158Z-5c6b3f68", "release": "1002T230158Z", "construction": "published: the 30-hours leg of PolicyEngine's dashboard (https://policyengine.org/uk/childcare-100k-threshold), budget.gross_bn.thirty_hours (the 30-hours leg: extended, universal and targeted entitlements; budget.thirty_hours_components_bn puts it all in extended), year 2027 (FY 2027-28); PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold@f25f0db data/results.json (sha256 4193f13b2a1f); policyengine 6.2.1, dataset passed unmanaged (pinned_by_repo_unmanaged_by_bundle)", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-09T11:50:21+00:00", "annotations": [ "A static cost on both sides, but the published PolicyEngine figure is the engine plus the dashboard's six local corrections to policyengine-uk 2.102.3, so it is a construction rather than the engine as served.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only. The dashboard's reform also removed the Tax-Free Childcare limit; the figure here is its 30-hours leg, which excludes Tax-Free Childcare (the dashboard puts that leg at \u00a30.159bn in 2027-28 and \u00a30.173bn in 2029-30).", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. The dashboard names fiscal years by their start year (2027 is 2027-28) and compared its 2029-30 figure with CenTax's 2030.", "Published figure: \u00a30.434bn. Six local corrections applied to every run, baseline and reform alike (src/childcare_100k/corrections.py at f25f0db): exactly \u00a3100,000 qualifies; a partner on a specified benefit need not pass the minimum earnings test; the universal and targeted 15 hours are a floor that eligibility for the extended hours never removes (policyengine-uk#1930); salary sacrifice returned to pay from April 2029 is not income for the limits; Tax-Free Childcare regards a partner on a caring or incapacity benefit as in qualifying paid work; both schemes test the claimant and partner.", "microcosm#1126 (closed 2026-10-16) reports that this release draws maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage ~ clip(N(15.019, 4.972), 0, 30), a mean of about 15 of the 30 weekly hours, and derives DfE's mean as about 28.5 hours: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1126.", "On https://policyengine.org/uk/childcare-100k-threshold from 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-21: policyengine-app-v2 de2b07cf (2026-10-21T14:59:14Z), 'Take down the childcare cliff edge dashboard temporarily': it removes the listing, the featured card and the route, and redirects /uk/childcare-100k-threshold/:path* to /uk/research (permanent: false) 'while its costing is revised (uk-childcare-100k-threshold#8)'.", "Since then https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold/pull/8 merged (2026-10-24): the dashboard's own deployment, https://uk-childcare-100k-threshold.vercel.app/uk/childcare-100k-threshold (the repository's homepage; policyengine.org still redirects the page on 2026-10-25), serves \u00a30.902bn in this year from PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold@1b83dd4 on microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a with policyengine-uk 2.147.2. Not attached: policyengine.org does not serve it, and its Microcosm release is in no certified pair. When policyengine.org serves the page again, the figure it shows is a new published row." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "PolicyEngine's static cost on the certified pair is \u00a30.690bn in 2027-28, 14% below CenTax's \u00a30.80bn. Our side first: on this pair the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours (measured), and with every family at the full 30 hours the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn (diagnostic run). microcosm#1126 identifies this draw as the main reason PolicyEngine's free-hours spending is low and derives DfE's mean as about 28.5 hours. The fix merged in microcosm on 16 October 2026 (microcosm#1299); this certified pair was built on 19 June 2026, before it. policyengine.py#685 (merged 21 October 2026) certified a Microcosm pair with the fixed draw, national cut 6cba5d71 with policyengine-uk 2.132.6, which this lane has not run yet (policyengine-scorecard#228). PolicyEngine's published dashboard figure, on policyengine.org from 12 to 21 October 2026, ran on the 2 October Microcosm release that microcosm#1126 examines, with the same draw. Two smaller PolicyEngine-side factors are recorded on the result: the universal-hours switch-off (policyengine-uk#1930, changed after the pin by policyengine-uk#2177) and no hours for children under 1.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1126" } }, { "claim_id": "ee1a11d985fbb0514bed", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, High-Cost Scenario, tax year 2028: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Extensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "extensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "high_cost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ec77f8f7a193a4ec2fc1", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, High-Cost Scenario, tax year 2028: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Intensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "intensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "high_cost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f8c6e59097968afab7c5", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, High-Cost Scenario, tax year 2028: Net Fiscal Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "net_fiscal_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "high_cost", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -610000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -610000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 1.1318604785559478, "delta": -80434891.91912818 }, "results": [ { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "06bdb7943962912e4b32", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, High-Cost Scenario, tax year 2028: Static Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "static_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "high_cost", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -820000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -820000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8419937706330831, "delta": 129565108.08087182 }, "results": [ { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "45836aa1bcf5a8bfe397", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Low-Cost Scenario, tax year 2028: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Extensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "extensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "low_cost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 90000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 90000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ed9d406aaafbf04d32cb", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Low-Cost Scenario, tax year 2028: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Intensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "intensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "low_cost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 630000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 630000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4ba02ab047bc8d8f8b8c", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Low-Cost Scenario, tax year 2028: Net Fiscal Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "net_fiscal_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "low_cost", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 140000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 140000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -4.931677799422344, "delta": -830434891.9191282 }, "results": [ { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6f05b84a4298c5d21883", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Low-Cost Scenario, tax year 2028: Static Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "static_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "low_cost", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -580000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -580000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.1904049860674624, "delta": -110434891.91912818 }, "results": [ { "value": -690434891.9191282, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.690bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.404bn in 2027-28 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5dd545130bb41b108b55", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Central Scenario, tax year 2030: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Extensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "extensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "central", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 130000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 130000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2f83ae44603194b65ccb", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Central Scenario, tax year 2030: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Intensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "intensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "central", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 210000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 210000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fc87562c6825d37097b6", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Central Scenario, tax year 2030: Net Fiscal Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "net_fiscal_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "central", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -640000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -640000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 1.30996690907305, "delta": -198378821.80675197 }, "results": [ { "value": -505000000.0, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.102.3", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261002T230158Z-5c6b3f68", "release": "1002T230158Z", "construction": "published: the 30-hours leg of PolicyEngine's dashboard (https://policyengine.org/uk/childcare-100k-threshold), budget.gross_bn.thirty_hours (the 30-hours leg: extended, universal and targeted entitlements; budget.thirty_hours_components_bn puts it all in extended), year 2029 (FY 2029-30); PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold@f25f0db data/results.json (sha256 4193f13b2a1f); policyengine 6.2.1, dataset passed unmanaged (pinned_by_repo_unmanaged_by_bundle)", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-09T11:50:21+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only. The dashboard's reform also removed the Tax-Free Childcare limit; the figure here is its 30-hours leg, which excludes Tax-Free Childcare (the dashboard puts that leg at \u00a30.159bn in 2027-28 and \u00a30.173bn in 2029-30).", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. The dashboard names fiscal years by their start year (2027 is 2027-28) and compared its 2029-30 figure with CenTax's 2030.", "Published figure: \u00a30.505bn. Six local corrections applied to every run, baseline and reform alike (src/childcare_100k/corrections.py at f25f0db): exactly \u00a3100,000 qualifies; a partner on a specified benefit need not pass the minimum earnings test; the universal and targeted 15 hours are a floor that eligibility for the extended hours never removes (policyengine-uk#1930); salary sacrifice returned to pay from April 2029 is not income for the limits; Tax-Free Childcare regards a partner on a caring or incapacity benefit as in qualifying paid work; both schemes test the claimant and partner.", "microcosm#1126 (closed 2026-10-16) reports that this release draws maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage ~ clip(N(15.019, 4.972), 0, 30), a mean of about 15 of the 30 weekly hours, and derives DfE's mean as about 28.5 hours: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1126.", "On https://policyengine.org/uk/childcare-100k-threshold from 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-21: policyengine-app-v2 de2b07cf (2026-10-21T14:59:14Z), 'Take down the childcare cliff edge dashboard temporarily': it removes the listing, the featured card and the route, and redirects /uk/childcare-100k-threshold/:path* to /uk/research (permanent: false) 'while its costing is revised (uk-childcare-100k-threshold#8)'.", "Since then https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold/pull/8 merged (2026-10-24): the dashboard's own deployment, https://uk-childcare-100k-threshold.vercel.app/uk/childcare-100k-threshold (the repository's homepage; policyengine.org still redirects the page on 2026-10-25), serves \u00a31.037bn in this year from PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold@1b83dd4 on microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a with policyengine-uk 2.147.2. Not attached: policyengine.org does not serve it, and its Microcosm release is in no certified pair. When policyengine.org serves the page again, the figure it shows is a new published row." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" }, { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ed292fa51b2c4a5aab13", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Central Scenario, tax year 2030: Static Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "static_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "central", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -980000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -980000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8554885936803591, "delta": 141621178.19324803 }, "results": [ { "value": -505000000.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.102.3", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261002T230158Z-5c6b3f68", "release": "1002T230158Z", "construction": "published: the 30-hours leg of PolicyEngine's dashboard (https://policyengine.org/uk/childcare-100k-threshold), budget.gross_bn.thirty_hours (the 30-hours leg: extended, universal and targeted entitlements; budget.thirty_hours_components_bn puts it all in extended), year 2029 (FY 2029-30); PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold@f25f0db data/results.json (sha256 4193f13b2a1f); policyengine 6.2.1, dataset passed unmanaged (pinned_by_repo_unmanaged_by_bundle)", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-09T11:50:21+00:00", "annotations": [ "A static cost on both sides, but the published PolicyEngine figure is the engine plus the dashboard's six local corrections to policyengine-uk 2.102.3, so it is a construction rather than the engine as served.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only. The dashboard's reform also removed the Tax-Free Childcare limit; the figure here is its 30-hours leg, which excludes Tax-Free Childcare (the dashboard puts that leg at \u00a30.159bn in 2027-28 and \u00a30.173bn in 2029-30).", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. The dashboard names fiscal years by their start year (2027 is 2027-28) and compared its 2029-30 figure with CenTax's 2030.", "Published figure: \u00a30.505bn. Six local corrections applied to every run, baseline and reform alike (src/childcare_100k/corrections.py at f25f0db): exactly \u00a3100,000 qualifies; a partner on a specified benefit need not pass the minimum earnings test; the universal and targeted 15 hours are a floor that eligibility for the extended hours never removes (policyengine-uk#1930); salary sacrifice returned to pay from April 2029 is not income for the limits; Tax-Free Childcare regards a partner on a caring or incapacity benefit as in qualifying paid work; both schemes test the claimant and partner.", "microcosm#1126 (closed 2026-10-16) reports that this release draws maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage ~ clip(N(15.019, 4.972), 0, 30), a mean of about 15 of the 30 weekly hours, and derives DfE's mean as about 28.5 hours: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1126.", "On https://policyengine.org/uk/childcare-100k-threshold from 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-21: policyengine-app-v2 de2b07cf (2026-10-21T14:59:14Z), 'Take down the childcare cliff edge dashboard temporarily': it removes the listing, the featured card and the route, and redirects /uk/childcare-100k-threshold/:path* to /uk/research (permanent: false) 'while its costing is revised (uk-childcare-100k-threshold#8)'.", "Since then https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold/pull/8 merged (2026-10-24): the dashboard's own deployment, https://uk-childcare-100k-threshold.vercel.app/uk/childcare-100k-threshold (the repository's homepage; policyengine.org still redirects the page on 2026-10-25), serves \u00a31.037bn in this year from PolicyEngine/uk-childcare-100k-threshold@1b83dd4 on microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261023T075039Z-a133f37a with policyengine-uk 2.147.2. Not attached: policyengine.org does not serve it, and its Microcosm release is in no certified pair. When policyengine.org serves the page again, the figure it shows is a new published row." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "PolicyEngine's static cost on the certified pair is \u00a30.838bn in 2029-30, 14% below CenTax's \u00a30.98bn. Our side first: on this pair the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours (measured), and with every family at the full 30 hours the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn (diagnostic run). microcosm#1126 identifies this draw as the main reason PolicyEngine's free-hours spending is low and derives DfE's mean as about 28.5 hours. The fix merged in microcosm on 16 October 2026 (microcosm#1299); this certified pair was built on 19 June 2026, before it. policyengine.py#685 (merged 21 October 2026) certified a Microcosm pair with the fixed draw, national cut 6cba5d71 with policyengine-uk 2.132.6, which this lane has not run yet (policyengine-scorecard#228). PolicyEngine's published dashboard figure, on policyengine.org from 12 to 21 October 2026, ran on the 2 October Microcosm release that microcosm#1126 examines, with the same draw. Two smaller PolicyEngine-side factors are recorded on the result: the universal-hours switch-off (policyengine-uk#1930, changed after the pin by policyengine-uk#2177) and no hours for children under 1.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1126" } }, { "claim_id": "9d5a7abbae3f7723c566", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, High-Cost Scenario, tax year 2030: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Extensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "extensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "high_cost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0fbec555b7bbc88c956d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, High-Cost Scenario, tax year 2030: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Intensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "intensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "high_cost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ae95388df478c4d32b54", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, High-Cost Scenario, tax year 2030: Net Fiscal Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "net_fiscal_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "high_cost", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -770000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -770000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 1.0888036646840935, "delta": -68378821.80675197 }, "results": [ { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c517308e20f471a1b547", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, High-Cost Scenario, tax year 2030: Static Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "static_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "high_cost", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -1010000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1010000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8300780413928237, "delta": 171621178.19324803 }, "results": [ { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4c9b74cff2348b60b79e", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Low-Cost Scenario, tax year 2030: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Extensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "extensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "low_cost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 90000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 90000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3fcf35303682330ee20c", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Low-Cost Scenario, tax year 2030: Behavioural Gain (\u00a3), Intensive Margin", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "intensive_margin", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "low_cost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')", "pe_missing": "behavioural leg: this lane's PolicyEngine counterparts are static runs (policyengine-uk 2.89.2's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so employment_income_behavioral_response is zero)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 770000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 770000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f74e6038249cb2f6f76d", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Low-Cost Scenario, tax year 2030: Net Fiscal Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "net_fiscal_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "low_cost", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": 160000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 160000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -5.2398676362922, "delta": -998378821.806752 }, "results": [ { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CenTax's net fiscal cost adds two behavioural gains to the static cost: tax from parents who stop holding their income below \u00a3100,000 (the intensive margin) and tax and National Insurance from partners who enter work (the extensive margin). PolicyEngine's counterpart is the static cost alone, so the two measure different things.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "27f00fcd76e9326d6c57", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4.2, Low-Cost Scenario, tax year 2030: Static Cost (\u00a3)", "name": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the childcare cliff-edge: impacts and cost of reform", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/AdvaniFlewPepin-HallSummers2026_Removing-the-childcare-cliff-edge.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "static_cost", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "hmrc_administrative", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours", "scenario": "low_cost", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to the Exchequer (published: 'negative = cost to the Exchequer')" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db11caf3e07ba4d1", "external_value": -700000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -700000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.1976840311525028, "delta": -138378821.80675197 }, "results": [ { "value": -838378821.806752, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both numbers are static costs. CenTax's static cost is the cost of funding the hours for children of parents above \u00a3100,000 before any behavioural response (Table 4.2 notes; Appendix A, 'Static cost'). PolicyEngine's is the change in spending on the three free-hours entitlements in England with the limit removed; at the pin the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero, so no behavioural response enters.", "CenTax's scenarios assume different falls in the bunching friction after 2022 (none in the high-cost scenario, a 50% fall in the low-cost one). That changes how many parents are above \u00a3100,000 under current law, so the static cost differs by scenario. PolicyEngine has one current-law income distribution, so one PolicyEngine value meets all three scenarios.", "CenTax costs the free childcare hours only ('removing the \u00a3100,000 threshold for eligibility for free childcare hours'). Tax-Free Childcare, which has its own \u00a3100,000 limit, is not part of the reform. PolicyEngine's counterpart matches: it removes only the 30-hours limit and sums the three free-hours entitlements, and the run measured no change in Tax-Free Childcare. The \u00a3500 Tax-Free Childcare addition in CenTax's Appendix D belongs to the Centre for British Progress estimate CenTax reviews, not to CenTax's figures.", "CenTax names tax years by their later year, so 2028 is 2027-28 and 2030 is 2029-30. PolicyEngine's annual period 2027 runs the 2027-28 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.000bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.838bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.000bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 100000 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT).", "Diagnostic, not attached: with every family at the full 30 hours (the input set to 30 in both worlds before any calculation) the same reform costs \u00a31.715bn in 2029-30 on this pair." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2a18eefc3c44336f3a17", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "additional tax from the reform", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "farm estates with an APR/BPR claim covering less than 20% of the estate (likely passive investors)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "2%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.02, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.02, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "392f8284d4c31f166150", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "additional tax from farm estates", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "impacted estates worth over \u00a35 million", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "Over 80%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "74553c98c56cca6455f2", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "additional tax from farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "impacted estates over \u00a310 million", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "55%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.55, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.55, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "878f5fd8884fa99dd180", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "additional tax from the reform", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "\u2018small family farms\u2019 (APR/BPR share > 60% of estate and estate value < \u00a35m)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "15%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.15, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.15, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8d00404bfd0eecdebbdd", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "additional tax from farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "deceased with income over \u00a3100,000", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "Almost half (47%)" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.47, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.47, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "adfa5c7278bede4c71c6", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "incidence": "full incidence on partners, zero behavioural response", "income_concept": "total income (all taxpayers)", "income_group": "decile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "value_verbatim": "98%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.98, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.98, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b546dfcd9e2a9adfafc9", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "additional tax from farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "deceased with income over \u00a3500,000", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "23%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.23, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.23, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b9572e40f5a923d1494a", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "incidence": "full incidence on partners, zero behavioural response", "income_concept": "total income (all taxpayers)", "income_group": "bottom_50pct", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "value_verbatim": "less than 0.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.004, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.004, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b97a79c5409ab13c7372", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "additional tax from farm estates", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "deceased with total income under \u00a325,000 per year (five-year average before death)", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "Around 10%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ccd04b8d9b2351d508ba", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "London", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "London", "geography_level": "ITL1", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "value_verbatim": "46%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.46, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.46, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d207cb71ef81a7f6d14e", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "window": "", "publication_title": "Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/AdvaniGazmuribarkerLonsdaleSummers2025_PartnershipNICs.pdf", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "incidence": "full incidence on partners, zero behavioural response", "income_concept": "total income (all taxpayers)", "income_group": "top_0.1pct", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "\u2018Partnership NICs\u2019: an equivalent to Class 1 Secondary (Employer) NICs at 13.04% on partnership profits above a \u00a35,000 Partners\u2019 Exempt Amount, with a \u00a310,500 Partnership Allowance applied in proportion to each partner's profit share", "value_verbatim": "58%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 0.58, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.58, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dd2cde755a07c0ed9ba7", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Report: The Impact of Changes to Inheritance Tax on Farm Estates (landing page, executive summary)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-brief-the-impact-of-changes-to-inheritance-tax-on-farm-estates/", "metric": "revenue_share", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "denominator": "additional tax from farm estates", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "per year of deaths, uprated to 2027", "reform_hint": "the planned reform: from April 2026 the first \u00a31 million of combined qualifying agricultural and business property keeps 100% APR/BPR relief and relief above that is reduced to 50% (Autumn Budget 2024); estates uprated to 2027, per year of deaths", "subgroup": "impacted farm estates valued at less than \u00a32 million", "unit_population": "farm estates (estates of individuals who died owning farm assets on which relief was claimed)", "value_verbatim": "Less than 1%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "78c68f7e47327f86", "external_value": 0.01, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.01, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3de3f320ce2d052aec1c", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-report-equalising-national-insurance-on-partnership-income-revenue-and-distributional-effects/", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2020, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Kensington", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2019-20", "geography": "Kensington", "geography_level": "westminster_constituency", "subgroup": "partners", "value_verbatim": "1800 partners" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1800.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1800.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "55e1fd35afbb78cc5b82", "source": "centax", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy report: Equalising National Insurance on Partnership Income: Revenue and Distributional Effects (landing page, key findings)", "url": "https://centax.org.uk/policy-report-equalising-national-insurance-on-partnership-income-revenue-and-distributional-effects/", "metric": "taxpayer_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2020, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Wales and Northern Ireland", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2019-20", "geography": "Wales and Northern Ireland", "subgroup": "partners", "value_verbatim": "65,000 partners" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 65000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 65000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1661f467b23f54be83e4", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 2 (Endogenous Pension, Exogenous Labour), Abolish Cliff, 2026/27", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_pension_exogenous_labour", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -886751045.0875429, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2026 (FY 2026-27); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2026-27 (engine period 2026, the start year, for claim period 2027), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.714bn, universal \u00a3-0.085bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.258bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.891bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.004bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.85m under current law, 0.98m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2026: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -12.667872072679184, "delta": -956751045.0875429 }, "results": [ { "value": -886751045.0875429, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2026 (FY 2026-27); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2026-27 (engine period 2026, the start year, for claim period 2027), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.714bn, universal \u00a3-0.085bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.258bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.891bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.004bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.85m under current law, 0.98m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2026: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b4009e63d3d8f0bdf659", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 3 (Endogenous Labour, No Pension), Abolish Cliff, 2026/27", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_labour_no_pension", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 330000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -886751045.0875429, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2026 (FY 2026-27); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2026-27 (engine period 2026, the start year, for claim period 2027), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.714bn, universal \u00a3-0.085bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.258bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.891bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.004bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.85m under current law, 0.98m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2026: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -2.6871243790531603, "delta": -1216751045.087543 }, "results": [ { "value": -886751045.0875429, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2026 (FY 2026-27); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2026-27 (engine period 2026, the start year, for claim period 2027), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.714bn, universal \u00a3-0.085bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.258bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.891bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.004bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.85m under current law, 0.98m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2026: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ba95ee167f32ce7268e6", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 2 (Endogenous Pension, Exogenous Labour), Abolish Cliff, 2027/28", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_pension_exogenous_labour", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 77000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -967350806.9000549, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.277bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.973bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.006bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -12.562997492208506, "delta": -1044350806.9000549 }, "results": [ { "value": -967350806.9000549, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.277bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.973bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.006bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "16bf746b2bd5bd96c22b", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 3 (Endogenous Labour, No Pension), Abolish Cliff, 2027/28", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_labour_no_pension", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 349000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -967350806.9000549, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.277bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.973bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.006bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -2.7717788163325356, "delta": -1316350806.900055 }, "results": [ { "value": -967350806.9000549, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2027 (FY 2027-28); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2027-28 (engine period 2027, the start year, for claim period 2028), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.792bn, universal \u00a3-0.101bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.277bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+0.973bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.006bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 0.99m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2027: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b7ae540056a5cc8df027", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 2 (Endogenous Pension, Exogenous Labour), Abolish Cliff, 2028/29", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_pension_exogenous_labour", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 91000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1047988737.7419379, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2028 (FY 2028-29); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2028-29 (engine period 2028, the start year, for claim period 2029), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.868bn, universal \u00a3-0.118bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.298bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.058bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.00m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2028: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -11.51635975540591, "delta": -1138988737.7419379 }, "results": [ { "value": -1047988737.7419379, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2028 (FY 2028-29); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2028-29 (engine period 2028, the start year, for claim period 2029), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.868bn, universal \u00a3-0.118bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.298bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.058bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.00m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2028: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d91bc28b78ea053677de", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 3 (Endogenous Labour, No Pension), Abolish Cliff, 2028/29", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_labour_no_pension", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 399000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1047988737.7419379, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2028 (FY 2028-29); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2028-29 (engine period 2028, the start year, for claim period 2029), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.868bn, universal \u00a3-0.118bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.298bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.058bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.00m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2028: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -2.6265381898294184, "delta": -1446988737.7419379 }, "results": [ { "value": -1047988737.7419379, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2028 (FY 2028-29); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2028-29 (engine period 2028, the start year, for claim period 2029), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.868bn, universal \u00a3-0.118bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.298bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.058bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.00m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2028: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d62224a3f05da8864a7a", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 2 (Endogenous Pension, Exogenous Labour), Abolish Cliff, 2029/30", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_pension_exogenous_labour", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 132000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1153495218.9554157, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.315bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.164bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -8.738600143601634, "delta": -1285495218.9554157 }, "results": [ { "value": -1153495218.9554157, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.315bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.164bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "62f2fa619e6b7620ef64", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 3 (Endogenous Labour, No Pension), Abolish Cliff, 2029/30", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_labour_no_pension", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 427000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1153495218.9554157, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CenTax quotes this cell as \u00a3425 million for 2030; the appendix prints 0.427 (\u00a3427 million) for 2029/30.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.315bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.164bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -2.7013939553991, "delta": -1580495218.9554157 }, "results": [ { "value": -1153495218.9554157, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2029 (FY 2029-30); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CenTax quotes this cell as \u00a3425 million for 2030; the appendix prints 0.427 (\u00a3427 million) for 2029/30.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2029-30 (engine period 2029, the start year, for claim period 2030), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+0.959bn, universal \u00a3-0.121bn, targeted \u00a3+0.000bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.315bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.164bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.84m under current law, 1.01m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.3 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2029: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1440ce517b94707280ec", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 2 (Endogenous Pension, Exogenous Labour), Abolish Cliff, 2030/31", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_pension_exogenous_labour", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 147000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1344575699.5687501, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2030 (FY 2030-31); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2030-31 (engine period 2030, the start year, for claim period 2031), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+1.160bn, universal \u00a3-0.140bn, targeted \u00a3-0.008bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.333bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.355bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.82m under current law, 1.03m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.4 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2030: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -9.146773466454082, "delta": -1491575699.5687501 }, "results": [ { "value": -1344575699.5687501, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2030 (FY 2030-31); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2030-31 (engine period 2030, the start year, for claim period 2031), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+1.160bn, universal \u00a3-0.140bn, targeted \u00a3-0.008bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.333bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.355bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.82m under current law, 1.03m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.4 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2030: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "41bd121814939659b513", "source": "centre_for_british_progress", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Technical appendix Table 3 (Endogenous Labour, No Pension), Abolish Cliff, 2030/31", "name": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "window": "", "publication_title": "Technical Appendix: underlying modelling and analysis for each of the policies in the Rates and Wrongs paper", "url": "https://britishprogress.org/api/media/file/rates_and_wrongs_technical_appendix.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "conditions": { "behavioral_response": "endogenous_labour_no_pension", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "data_scope": "synthetic_ons_births_spi_2022_23", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "uk_free_childcare_hours_and_tfc_100k_limit_removed", "program": "free_childcare_hours_and_tax_free_childcare", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6afa9ff6f3c2b955", "external_value": 462000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1344575699.5687501, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2030 (FY 2030-31); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2030-31 (engine period 2030, the start year, for claim period 2031), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+1.160bn, universal \u00a3-0.140bn, targeted \u00a3-0.008bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.333bn (reform minus current law). UK-wide, gov_spending moves \u00a3+1.355bn and gov_tax \u00a3+0.000bn; Tax-Free Childcare outside England moves \u00a3+0.010bn, left out because both offers are England's.", "Families receiving the extended hours: 0.82m under current law, 1.03m with the limit removed.", "Hours-usage draw: the families receiving the extended hours use a weighted mean of 15.4 of 30 weekly hours under current law (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). microcosm#1126 traces this draw and puts DfE's mean at about 28.5 hours.", "Take-up and usage the run read: the weighted share of benefit units whose take-up input is true under current law is would_claim_extended_childcare 0.807, would_claim_targeted_childcare 0.601, would_claim_tfc 0.573, would_claim_universal_childcare 0.570; maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage is the dataset's own input.", "Executed limits on 30 April 2030: 30 hours 1e+100, Tax-Free Childcare 1e+100 (1e+100 is the repo's no-limit sentinel, compute_uk_ab2025.NO_LIMIT)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": -2.9103370120535716, "delta": -1806575699.5687501 }, "results": [ { "value": -1344575699.5687501, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "static: the certified world with gov.dfe.extended_childcare_entitlement.income.limit, gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.income.income_limit set to 1e+100 minus the certified world as served, engine period 2030 (FY 2030-31); minus the change in extended_childcare_entitlement + universal_childcare_entitlement + targeted_childcare_entitlement + tax_free_childcare for people in English households (microdf weights); artifact results/uk/childcare_100k/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "extended_childcare_entitlement", "universal_childcare_entitlement", "targeted_childcare_entitlement", "tax_free_childcare" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-25T20:13:47.333098+00:00", "annotations": [ "CBP's figures are net fiscal impacts after a behavioural response: parents choose pension contributions with labour income fixed (Table 2), or choose labour supply with no pension (Table 3), and bunch at \u00a3100,000 only when that gains them more than a \u00a31,000 friction. PolicyEngine's counterpart is a static cost (the engine's labour-supply elasticities are zero at the pin), so the two measure different things. CBP publishes no static leg.", "CBP's subsidy includes Tax-Free Childcare: its tables assume \u00a3500 of Tax-Free Childcare per child (the model description says up to \u00a32,000). The PolicyEngine counterpart therefore removes both \u00a3100,000 limits and adds Tax-Free Childcare to the three free-hours entitlements. Both are counted for England only, as CBP's children are England's births: the engine applies Tax-Free Childcare across the UK, and the change outside England is stated on each result and left out.", "CBP assumes every eligible family uses the full working-parent hours, and gives every child two parents and no siblings. PolicyEngine runs the dataset's own families, values the extended hours at each family's weekly usage input (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage), and pays each offer only where the family's take-up input is true. Each result states the usage and take-up the run read and whether the dataset or the engine default supplied them.", "CBP's population is synthetic: children from ONS births for England, each given two parents whose incomes are drawn from the 2022-23 Survey of Personal Incomes (ages 25 to 44). CenTax's Appendix D says the two estimates differ principally because CenTax observes in administrative data what the synthetic model had to assume, and names the treatment of frictions as the most consequential assumption.", "The appendix gives no sign rule for its tables, and its values are carried as printed. CenTax reads them as revenue raised. PolicyEngine's value is negative for a cost to the Exchequer.", "CBP's columns are financial years (2026/27 is 2026-27). PolicyEngine's annual period 2026 runs the 2026-27 rules: policyengine-uk sets each government parameter for year Y to its value on 30 April of Y.", "Both offers are England's. policyengine-uk 2.89.2 tests country == ENGLAND for the extended, universal and targeted hours but not for Tax-Free Childcare, which it applies across the UK. The counterpart sums each head for people in English households (the household's country projected onto its members); ingest checks that no free-hours head moves outside England, and states the Tax-Free Childcare change outside England.", "policyengine-uk 2.89.2 switches a child's universal and targeted hours off once the family is eligible for the extended hours, and values the extended hours at the family's drawn weekly usage (maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage). The counterpart sums all three entitlements, so the universal hours a newly eligible family loses are netted out rather than double-counted. policyengine-uk#2177 (merged 12 October 2026, after the pin) changed this, closing policyengine-uk#1930.", "The offer starts at 9 months. The engine's extended-hours scale starts at age 0.75, but every age on this pair is a whole number of years, so a child under 1 has age 0 and no child under 1 receives extended hours in any world or year (both measured). microcosm#1126 records the same for the Microcosm release.", "Measured on the certified pair, 2030-31 (engine period 2030, the start year, for claim period 2031), people in English households: extended hours \u00a3+1.160bn, universal \u00a3-0.140bn, targeted \u00a3-0.008bn, Tax-Free Childcare \u00a3+0.333bn (reform minus current law). 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"stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cfd44bdf7fd2852c1181", "source": "demos", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Solving the Tax Puzzle (Dan Goss, September 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Solving the Tax Puzzle (Dan Goss, September 2025)", "url": "https://demos.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Solving-the-tax-puzzle_report_2025_Sept.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__second_homes_200pct_premium_for_non_uk_residents", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No second-home ownership by non-residents on a UK-resident household bundle.", "reform_hint": "an additional 200% council tax premium on second homes owned by non-UK residents (bills 400% of the usual bill; up to 600% for empty homes)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "OVER \u00a3200 MILLION" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__second_homes_200pct_premium_for_non_uk_residents", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8d64f51b7d859742", "external_value": 200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__second_homes_200pct_premium_for_non_uk_residents", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No second-home ownership by non-residents on a UK-resident household bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /second_home|premium|empty_home|non_resident/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].rate']. Variables: 15 ['non_residential_property_value', 'cumulative_non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_rent', 'severe_disability_premium', 'enhanced_disability_premium', 'carer_premium']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__second_homes_200pct_premium_for_non_uk_residents", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No second-home ownership by non-residents on a UK-resident household bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /second_home|premium|empty_home|non_resident/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].rate']. Variables: 15 ['non_residential_property_value', 'cumulative_non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_rent', 'severe_disability_premium', 'enhanced_disability_premium', 'carer_premium']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No second-home ownership by non-residents on a UK-resident household bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dd68626f2ee5f8b61dee", "source": "demos", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Solving the Tax Puzzle (Dan Goss, September 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Solving the Tax Puzzle (Dan Goss, September 2025)", "url": "https://demos.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Solving-the-tax-puzzle_report_2025_Sept.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "upper bound ('behavioural responses will reduce revenues'); CGT and partnership components are dynamic", "reform_hint": "Demos's eight-reform package: NICs on rental income (with an investment allowance), \u2018partnership contributions\u2019 (employer-NICs equivalent), CGT equalised with income tax plus an investment allowance, an exit tax, ending the CGT uplift at death, a proportional property tax above \u00a32m, a 200% council tax premium on non-UK residents\u2019 second homes, and higher gambling duties", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a321.3 billion" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7f3b424959e321e4", "external_value": 21300000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 21300000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2fe8f297b2b1288f5ba4", "source": "deutsche_bank", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Reeves\u2019 Budget will fail to rescue public finances, top bank predicts", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reeves\u2019 Budget will fail to rescue public finances, top bank predicts", "url": "https://www.cityam.com/reeves-budget-will-fail-to-rescue-public-finances-top-bank-predicts/", "metric": "fiscal_headroom", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/55", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "horizon": "2029-30", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_total_policy_decisions", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "reform_hint": "tax rises totalling around \u00a330bn on housing, investment and through extending income tax thresholds, plus some spending cuts in the last year of the OBR forecast", "rule": "current budget (stability rule)", "sign_convention": "positive = headroom inside the fiscal rule; negative = shortfall against it", "timing": "pre-Budget expectation", "value_verbatim": "just over \u00a316bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_total_policy_decisions", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8d34569bb077afbb", "external_value": 16000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 16000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__package_total_policy_decisions", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "Parameters: none searched \u2014 a macro-fiscal aggregate names no engine lever; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__package_total_policy_decisions", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "Parameters: none searched \u2014 a macro-fiscal aggregate names no engine lever; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/55" } }, { "claim_id": "97f9fdb3cf7337b91521", "source": "deutsche_bank", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Reeves\u2019 Budget will fail to rescue public finances, top bank predicts", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reeves\u2019 Budget will fail to rescue public finances, top bank predicts", "url": "https://www.cityam.com/reeves-budget-will-fail-to-rescue-public-finances-top-bank-predicts/", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "package_tax_rise_size", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "horizon": "2029-30", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_total_tax_policy_decisions", "measure_type": "expected tax rises in the Budget", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The package total sums measures the household model cannot express (business taxes, administrative yields, departmental spending). A PE package number is the sum of the expressible household legs only, stated as constructed with the omitted lines listed; it is never compared to the Table 4.1 total as if like-for-like.", "reform_hint": "tax rises totalling around \u00a330bn on housing, investment and through extending income tax thresholds", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "timing": "pre-Budget expectation", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a330bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_total_tax_policy_decisions", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "acd5910cec32e067", "external_value": 30000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 30000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c95c29a868535490a0e4", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Poverty impacts, paragraph 2", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "gainer_count", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "scoring_method": "static", "statistic": "children living in households whose income increases", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "2 million children will live in households that see an increase in income as a result of the removal of the two-child limit" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": 2000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 2000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": 2074534.0099182762, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "gainers: is_hbai_dependent_child in households whose hbai_household_net_income is higher in current law than in the with-limit world, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Children in households whose income rises when the limit is removed, FYE 2030. PolicyEngine counts HBAI dependent children in households whose HBAI household net income (before housing costs) is higher in current law than in the with-limit world. DWP does not state a threshold for 'an increase in income'; PolicyEngine's count above \u00a30 is attached and the count above \u00a31 a week is in the measured note; they differ by no more than half the 0.1 million rounding of Table A5.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 2.07m dependent children in households whose HBAI income rises at all; 2.06m by more than \u00a31 a week; households gaining 0.60m; benefit units whose Universal Credit rises 0.60m.", "About 326 households are worse off (largest loss \u00a3911 a year). In each, a Universal Credit award begins and the household's Tax-Free Childcare ends: the model makes a UC award disqualify Tax-Free Childcare (gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.disqualifying_benefits), and whether a family claims UC is a data input (would_claim_uc), so the model does not weigh the childcare it gives up (results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/diagnostics/losers.json).", "PE oriented to it: a count of children, no sign." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0372670049591382, "delta": 74534.00991827622 }, "results": [ { "value": 2074534.0099182762, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "gainers: is_hbai_dependent_child in households whose hbai_household_net_income is higher in current law than in the with-limit world, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Children in households whose income rises when the limit is removed, FYE 2030. PolicyEngine counts HBAI dependent children in households whose HBAI household net income (before housing costs) is higher in current law than in the with-limit world. DWP does not state a threshold for 'an increase in income'; PolicyEngine's count above \u00a30 is attached and the count above \u00a31 a week is in the measured note; they differ by no more than half the 0.1 million rounding of Table A5.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 2.07m dependent children in households whose HBAI income rises at all; 2.06m by more than \u00a31 a week; households gaining 0.60m; benefit units whose Universal Credit rises 0.60m.", "About 326 households are worse off (largest loss \u00a3911 a year). In each, a Universal Credit award begins and the household's Tax-Free Childcare ends: the model makes a UC award disqualify Tax-Free Childcare (gov.hmrc.tax_free_childcare.disqualifying_benefits), and whether a family claims UC is a data input (would_claim_uc), so the model does not weigh the childcare it gives up (results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/diagnostics/losers.json).", "PE oriented to it: a count of children, no sign." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "697535a076386d2c9d5e", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table A5, Children: in deep material poverty", "name": "Child Poverty Strategy: Impact on low income poverty levels and children gaining in the UK: December 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Child Poverty Strategy: Impact on low income poverty levels and children gaining in the UK: December 2025", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/child-poverty-strategy-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-and-children-gaining-in-the-uk-december-2025/child-poverty-strategy-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-and-children-gaining-in-the-uk-december-2025", "metric": "gainer_count", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "pe_missing": "deep material poverty: policyengine-uk has no material-deprivation variable", "scoring_method": "static", "statistic": "children living in households whose income increases", "subgroup": "children_in_deep_material_poverty", "value_verbatim": "0.6 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": 600000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 600000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "no construction: no material-deprivation variable", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Deep material poverty is a survey measure of lacking essential items (DWP: 'based on whether the household was reported to be in deep material poverty in the original FRS data'). policyengine-uk 2.132.6 has no material-deprivation variable, so PolicyEngine cannot count these children.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "no construction: no material-deprivation variable", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Deep material poverty is a survey measure of lacking essential items (DWP: 'based on whether the household was reported to be in deep material poverty in the original FRS data'). policyengine-uk 2.132.6 has no material-deprivation variable, so PolicyEngine cannot count these children.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "75bce3a1346b62f0165d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Poverty impacts, paragraph 4, and footnote 2", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as worded: 'fewer children in poverty' (positive = fewer)", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "in FYE 2026 there would be 300,000 fewer children in poverty if the two-child limit did not exist" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": 300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": 211734.35347809643, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the 2025-26 removal (removed_2025), relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2025; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2025-26, engine period 2025): +212k on each world's own median; +223k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer, as the text words it." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7057811782603214, "delta": -88265.64652190357 }, "results": [ { "value": 211734.35347809643, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the 2025-26 removal (removed_2025), relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2025; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2025-26, engine period 2025): +212k on each world's own median; +223k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer, as the text words it." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e95f300ae81381b80833", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -296796.72673558816, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -297k on each world's own median; -304k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9893224224519606, "delta": 3203.273264411837 }, "results": [ { "value": -296796.72673558816, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -297k on each world's own median; -304k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cd31267618f8b8869991", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-400,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -400000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -400000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -428374.3138714619, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -428k on each world's own median; -451k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0709357846786547, "delta": -28374.313871461898 }, "results": [ { "value": -428374.3138714619, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -428k on each world's own median; -451k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d1443734567662d1af2a", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -130762.65948292613, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -131k on each world's own median; -144k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.3076265948292614, "delta": -30762.65948292613 }, "results": [ { "value": -130762.65948292613, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -131k on each world's own median; -144k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "73f5561c8c4fc1fd44c3", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-250,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -250000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -299724.873113893, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -300k on each world's own median; -301k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.1988994924555718, "delta": -49724.87311389297 }, "results": [ { "value": -299724.873113893, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -300k on each world's own median; -301k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "db56721ad842c64e76b6", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -415286.8149179742, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -415k on each world's own median; -423k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.384289383059914, "delta": -115286.81491797417 }, "results": [ { "value": -415286.8149179742, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -415k on each world's own median; -423k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "630be320cd54dc89f13f", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-50,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -50000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -50000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -116873.47372403741, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -117k on each world's own median; -122k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 2.337469474480748, "delta": -66873.47372403741 }, "results": [ { "value": -116873.47372403741, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -117k on each world's own median; -122k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ebcdac08589a0b9f677b", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-250,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -250000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -300614.06977263466, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -301k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -304k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -350k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2024562790905386, "delta": -50614.069772634655 }, "results": [ { "value": -300614.06977263466, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -301k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -304k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -350k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "307e3df007492e87f75d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -442650.6235986799, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -443k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -451k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -512k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2647160674247997, "delta": -92650.6235986799 }, "results": [ { "value": -442650.6235986799, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -443k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -451k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -512k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "33bf72a186130bbdbe49", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -140411.58572263643, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -140k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -144k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -158k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4041158572263643, "delta": -40411.58572263643 }, "results": [ { "value": -140411.58572263643, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -140k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -144k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -158k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f610e66334e2209cf16b", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-200,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -200000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -200000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -194409.45965612307, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -194k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -301k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -300k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9720472982806153, "delta": 5590.540343876928 }, "results": [ { "value": -194409.45965612307, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -194k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -301k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -300k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e7760e41bf97968f613c", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -305443.46595121175, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -305k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -423k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -440k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0181448865040392, "delta": -5443.4659512117505 }, "results": [ { "value": -305443.46595121175, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -305k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -423k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -440k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7eccade233be3cc5ce0e", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -111034.00629508868, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -111k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -122k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -137k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1103400629508868, "delta": -11034.006295088679 }, "results": [ { "value": -111034.00629508868, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -111k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -122k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -137k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "50afa5fb65e17afcde6d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -299072.92827693745, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -299k on each world's own median; -311k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8544940807912499, "delta": 50927.071723062545 }, "results": [ { "value": -299072.92827693745, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -299k on each world's own median; -311k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a56b5fc727cc56354827", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-500,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -500000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -500000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -434721.4428719878, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -435k on each world's own median; -461k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8694428857439757, "delta": 65278.55712801218 }, "results": [ { "value": -434721.4428719878, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -435k on each world's own median; -461k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cd222e1e921ac211ee85", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-150,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -150000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -136235.75346994027, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -136k on each world's own median; -147k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9082383564662685, "delta": 13764.246530059725 }, "results": [ { "value": -136235.75346994027, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -136k on each world's own median; -147k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b9eaa983e0aa15291b3f", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -290820.27927615494, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -291k on each world's own median; -301k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9694009309205165, "delta": 9179.720723845065 }, "results": [ { "value": -290820.27927615494, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -291k on each world's own median; -301k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3b052a717ec0c04889b7", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -366521.1491207853, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -367k on each world's own median; -422k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0472032832022438, "delta": -16521.149120785296 }, "results": [ { "value": -366521.1491207853, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -367k on each world's own median; -422k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6210ed13b21eabb6f450", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -80540.32623031735, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -81k on each world's own median; -120k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8054032623031735, "delta": 19459.673769682646 }, "results": [ { "value": -80540.32623031735, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -81k on each world's own median; -120k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c0f435eb5c41cb3e661c", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-250,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -250000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -310659.86850467324, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -311k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -311k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -358k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.242639474018693, "delta": -60659.86850467324 }, "results": [ { "value": -310659.86850467324, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -311k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -311k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -358k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1490dbccb73a71f55c66", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -457750.5582896471, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -458k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -461k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -522k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3078587379704203, "delta": -107750.5582896471 }, "results": [ { "value": -457750.5582896471, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -458k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -461k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -522k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7a9220627c8df3ea9e64", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -145459.709292382, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -145k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -147k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -160k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4545970929238201, "delta": -45459.709292382 }, "results": [ { "value": -145459.709292382, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -145k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -147k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -160k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b28c39d7c8e1af8ff748", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-200,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -200000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -200000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -220709.99904774874, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -221k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -301k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -297k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1035499952387438, "delta": -20709.999047748744 }, "results": [ { "value": -220709.99904774874, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -221k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -301k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -297k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5ccb13acf9b81b0a0e8f", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -341488.42930303514, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -341k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -422k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -433k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1382947643434504, "delta": -41488.42930303514 }, "results": [ { "value": -341488.42930303514, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -341k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -422k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -433k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e80f3e61ec5f1e3e2544", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -120778.4302552864, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -121k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -120k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -133k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.207784302552864, "delta": -20778.430255286396 }, "results": [ { "value": -120778.4302552864, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -121k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -120k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -133k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6ab5d33998a4809e9eb3", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-450,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -450000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -450000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -387790.2243805565, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -388k on each world's own median; -391k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8617560541790145, "delta": 62209.775619443506 }, "results": [ { "value": -387790.2243805565, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -388k on each world's own median; -391k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1d90c1d860b5f63fc3c8", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-600,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -600000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -558916.2664172985, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -559k on each world's own median; -580k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9315271106954974, "delta": 41083.733582701534 }, "results": [ { "value": -558916.2664172985, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -559k on each world's own median; -580k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b74c73ded124455132d3", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-150,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -150000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -178144.151912719, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -178k on each world's own median; -186k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.1876276794181266, "delta": -28144.15191271901 }, "results": [ { "value": -178144.151912719, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -178k on each world's own median; -186k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "23ec0481f554b6f0d2bb", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -414100.55746273696, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -414k on each world's own median; -416k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.3803351915424567, "delta": -114100.55746273696 }, "results": [ { "value": -414100.55746273696, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -414k on each world's own median; -416k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8040972fb988d23a575d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-400,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -400000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -400000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -584482.042507451, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -584k on each world's own median; -596k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.4612051062686275, "delta": -184482.04250745103 }, "results": [ { "value": -584482.042507451, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -584k on each world's own median; -596k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c6088a0d3214c7f51acc", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -174087.2591190599, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -174k on each world's own median; -179k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.740872591190599, "delta": -74087.25911905989 }, "results": [ { "value": -174087.2591190599, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -174k on each world's own median; -179k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d7895507053d7de05c5d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-250,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -250000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -401356.30015424266, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -401k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -391k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -471k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.6054252006169707, "delta": -151356.30015424266 }, "results": [ { "value": -401356.30015424266, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -401k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -391k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -471k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d8c7a38ae9eba975a4c6", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -590254.0700132027, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -590k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -580k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -698k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.686440200037722, "delta": -240254.07001320273 }, "results": [ { "value": -590254.0700132027, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -590k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -580k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -698k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "74d7c445721dc15d2ed7", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -188897.76985896006, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -189k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -186k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -223k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.8889776985896005, "delta": -88897.76985896006 }, "results": [ { "value": -188897.76985896006, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -189k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -186k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -223k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b1ab9f4619588f03ff11", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-200,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -200000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -200000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -261352.02395454794, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -261k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -416k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -327k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3067601197727396, "delta": -61352.02395454794 }, "results": [ { "value": -261352.02395454794, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -261k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -416k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -327k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9139703b9fdfa79b996e", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -397581.98000381887, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -398k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -596k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -475k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3252732666793963, "delta": -97581.98000381887 }, "results": [ { "value": -397581.98000381887, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -398k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -596k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -475k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d044f67cf5e88cc5aa4d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -136229.95604927093, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -136k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -179k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -144k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3622995604927093, "delta": -36229.95604927093 }, "results": [ { "value": -136229.95604927093, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -136k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -179k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -144k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2f90d6562b5cf8008c94", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-450,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -450000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -450000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -445085.27309934795, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -445k on each world's own median; -448k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (253k children AHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +86k, data Populace to Microcosm +103k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +6k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +102k; the releases that move it most are 2.147.1 +116k, 2.148.2 -42k, 2.146.3 +38k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9890783846652177, "delta": 4914.726900652051 }, "results": [ { "value": -445085.27309934795, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -445k on each world's own median; -448k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (253k children AHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +86k, data Populace to Microcosm +103k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +6k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +102k; the releases that move it most are 2.147.1 +116k, 2.148.2 -42k, 2.146.3 +38k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b51ab553b427c2dd75ce", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-600,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -600000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -648355.7204062082, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -648k on each world's own median; -664k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0805928673436802, "delta": -48355.72040620819 }, "results": [ { "value": -648355.7204062082, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -648k on each world's own median; -664k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2b9307e65a1f6a89b66d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-150,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -150000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -202784.26906977966, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -203k on each world's own median; -213k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.3518951271318644, "delta": -52784.269069779664 }, "results": [ { "value": -202784.26906977966, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -203k on each world's own median; -213k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d840d48b5aa86092e053", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -449637.7677901909, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -450k on each world's own median; -453k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (276k children BHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +30k, data Populace to Microcosm +143k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +4k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +10k; the releases that move it most are 2.146.3 +31k, 2.147.1 -25k, 2.141.6 -23k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.4987925593006362, "delta": -149637.76779019088 }, "results": [ { "value": -449637.7677901909, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -450k on each world's own median; -453k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (276k children BHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +30k, data Populace to Microcosm +143k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +4k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +10k; the releases that move it most are 2.146.3 +31k, 2.147.1 -25k, 2.141.6 -23k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e7369062a7ba3b080c8a", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -623257.5564542562, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -623k on each world's own median; -649k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.7807358755835891, "delta": -273257.5564542562 }, "results": [ { "value": -623257.5564542562, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -623k on each world's own median; -649k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6f77d8af070bd80d7912", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-50,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -50000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -50000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -174816.9467990622, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -175k on each world's own median; -196k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 3.496338935981244, "delta": -124816.94679906219 }, "results": [ { "value": -174816.9467990622, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -175k on each world's own median; -196k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0953bfed29bf91c21076", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-250,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -250000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -435634.14562597126, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -436k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -448k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -509k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.742536582503885, "delta": -185634.14562597126 }, "results": [ { "value": -435634.14562597126, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -436k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -448k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -509k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9fd09e701efb68634c60", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -642579.4826211184, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -643k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -664k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -757k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.8359413789174812, "delta": -292579.4826211184 }, "results": [ { "value": -642579.4826211184, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -643k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -664k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -757k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5f6858ee6606febf6df1", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -203770.79178728908, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -204k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -213k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -244k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.0377079178728907, "delta": -103770.79178728908 }, "results": [ { "value": -203770.79178728908, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -204k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -213k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -244k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f0db70b0fc559137b2b8", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-250,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -250000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -288572.2129912488, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -289k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -453k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -333k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1542888519649952, "delta": -38572.212991248816 }, "results": [ { "value": -288572.2129912488, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -289k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -453k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -333k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "eda175f64a3160a4b20c", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -440348.2248351276, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -440k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -649k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -483k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2581377852432216, "delta": -90348.22483512759 }, "results": [ { "value": -440348.2248351276, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -440k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -649k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -483k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3581fe94652b5b70ec11", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -148601.4666360207, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -149k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -196k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -147k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.486014666360207, "delta": -48601.46663602069 }, "results": [ { "value": -148601.4666360207, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -149k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -196k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -147k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3bbd3d43b6808822e1d9", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-450,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -450000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -450000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -372288.8785869032, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -372k on each world's own median; -383k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8273086190820071, "delta": 77711.12141309679 }, "results": [ { "value": -372288.8785869032, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -372k on each world's own median; -383k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6e84ec7415964b424022", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-550,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -550000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -550000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -549627.332866326, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -550k on each world's own median; -576k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.99932242339332, "delta": 372.66713367402554 }, "results": [ { "value": -549627.332866326, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -550k on each world's own median; -576k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "77680360594fa2ec4d18", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-150,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -150000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -174495.0688727349, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -174k on each world's own median; -189k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.163300459151566, "delta": -24495.068872734904 }, "results": [ { "value": -174495.0688727349, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -174k on each world's own median; -189k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2d50e8bab408de89ff1e", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -515057.6723018214, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -515k on each world's own median; -524k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.716858907672738, "delta": -215057.6723018214 }, "results": [ { "value": -515057.6723018214, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -515k on each world's own median; -524k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ba0b785a4f673b3dde7c", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-400,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -400000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -400000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -730498.6978908628, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -730k on each world's own median; -757k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.826246744727157, "delta": -330498.6978908628 }, "results": [ { "value": -730498.6978908628, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -730k on each world's own median; -757k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b334761eb348b7384361", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -223976.66107281297, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -224k on each world's own median; -232k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 2.2397666107281298, "delta": -123976.66107281297 }, "results": [ { "value": -223976.66107281297, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -224k on each world's own median; -232k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0a92c9c5f4972a197749", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-250,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -250000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -497890.91450561956, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -498k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -383k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -381k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.9915636580224783, "delta": -247890.91450561956 }, "results": [ { "value": -497890.91450561956, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -498k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -383k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -381k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5f5988ff0501f27550ba", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -724315.8663587607, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -724k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -576k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -571k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.0694739038821734, "delta": -374315.86635876074 }, "results": [ { "value": -724315.8663587607, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -724k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -576k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -571k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "83d0ac77d42ce2928112", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -223236.12130592763, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -223k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -189k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -186k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.2323612130592765, "delta": -123236.12130592763 }, "results": [ { "value": -223236.12130592763, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -223k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -189k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -186k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1550c28a9240c33926e8", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-250,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -250000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -331469.76417521015, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -331k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -524k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -479k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3258790567008405, "delta": -81469.76417521015 }, "results": [ { "value": -331469.76417521015, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -331k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -524k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -479k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5b5c198653152cab2dbe", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-350,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -502490.62641244754, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -502k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -757k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -700k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4356875040355643, "delta": -152490.62641244754 }, "results": [ { "value": -502490.62641244754, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -502k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -757k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -700k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ee26c3de01771cf001f8", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: number, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -167832.03169002384, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -168k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -232k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -218k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.6783203169002383, "delta": -67832.03169002384 }, "results": [ { "value": -167832.03169002384, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -168k on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -232k with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -218k; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fdb4ef163e7177eefeb5", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-2.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -2.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.044649815445446, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -2.04pp on each world's own median; -2.09pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.92938627974793, "delta": 0.15535018455455418 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.044649815445446, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -2.04pp on each world's own median; -2.09pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2a9085f65603c9eb537a", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.6%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.6146858434859759, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.61pp on each world's own median; -0.65pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0244764058099598, "delta": -0.014685843485975902 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.6146858434859759, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.61pp on each world's own median; -0.65pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f14215afad9f959dd4e4", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.30632520531944607, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.31pp on each world's own median; -0.34pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.5316260265972304, "delta": -0.10632520531944606 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.30632520531944607, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.31pp on each world's own median; -0.34pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "98769412e37ba64590f5", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.7%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.064821985192225, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -2.06pp on each world's own median; -2.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.2146011677601323, "delta": -0.364821985192225 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.064821985192225, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -2.06pp on each world's own median; -2.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3f85d1e69427846807cd", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.5959062386571006, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.60pp on each world's own median; -0.61pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.4897655966427514, "delta": -0.19590623865710055 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.5959062386571006, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.60pp on each world's own median; -0.61pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "128657d5298f20e6b6f6", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.27378833511403045, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.27pp on each world's own median; -0.28pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.3689416755701522, "delta": -0.07378833511403043 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.27378833511403045, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.27pp on each world's own median; -0.28pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4439e1290d945531ac6d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.8%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.0709477124001623, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -2.07pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.09pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.41pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.150526506888979, "delta": -0.27094771240016224 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.0709477124001623, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -2.07pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.09pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.41pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7fa82d1d87276599780a", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.6351713049209362, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.64pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.65pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.73pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2703426098418724, "delta": -0.1351713049209362 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.6351713049209362, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.64pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.65pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.73pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b1cc086b802fe71955ee", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.32892882414441793, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.33pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.34pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.37pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.6446441207220897, "delta": -0.12892882414441792 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.32892882414441793, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.33pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.34pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,566 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.37pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a317,973.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6db136fb4803ac8be95f", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -1.3392980110621888, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -1.34pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.07pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.956641436472992, "delta": 0.06070198893781109 }, "results": [ { "value": -1.3392980110621888, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -1.34pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.07pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "73719ff6e60c0069bb9d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.43828905801723117, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.44pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.61pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.63pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.095722645043078, "delta": -0.03828905801723115 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.43828905801723117, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.44pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.61pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.63pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "65eb499bb226d4ab9180", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2027", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.26010877195584214, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.26pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.28pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.32pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3005438597792107, "delta": -0.06010877195584213 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.26010877195584214, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2026-27, engine period 2026): -0.26pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.28pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a323,745 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.32pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a320,978.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5af3da953e9758e6e99b", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-2.6%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -2.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.0527355798571385, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -2.05pp on each world's own median; -2.13pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7895136845604379, "delta": 0.5472644201428616 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.0527355798571385, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -2.05pp on each world's own median; -2.13pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d730f3dac97102019dee", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.7%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.6214939824384516, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.62pp on each world's own median; -0.66pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8878485463406451, "delta": 0.0785060175615484 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.6214939824384516, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.62pp on each world's own median; -0.66pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ed1e2ef028b6e913d2bb", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.3%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.3151092838377103, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.32pp on each world's own median; -0.34pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0503642794590344, "delta": -0.015109283837710319 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.3151092838377103, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.32pp on each world's own median; -0.34pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "543385a694db7ee235aa", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.9%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -1.9960921841155752, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -2.00pp on each world's own median; -2.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0505748337450396, "delta": -0.0960921841155753 }, "results": [ { "value": -1.9960921841155752, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -2.00pp on each world's own median; -2.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d2157f56fbe2e0de8a5a", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.5239922997818898, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.52pp on each world's own median; -0.60pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0479845995637795, "delta": -0.02399229978188977 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.5239922997818898, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.52pp on each world's own median; -0.60pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "be712b249f2c7e410bbc", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.1862874015967506, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.19pp on each world's own median; -0.28pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9314370079837531, "delta": 0.013712598403249399 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.1862874015967506, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.19pp on each world's own median; -0.28pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d46f9dae1d2cda237c06", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.8%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.1322644245579436, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -2.13pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.13pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.46pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1845913469766354, "delta": -0.3322644245579436 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.1322644245579436, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -2.13pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.13pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.46pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "66528cc16a1e828f2d7c", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.6544172644334711, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.65pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.66pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.75pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3088345288669423, "delta": -0.15441726443347115 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.6544172644334711, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.65pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.66pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.75pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5deccf1c07c318a5a626", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.33644402188796363, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.34pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.34pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.37pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.6822201094398181, "delta": -0.13644402188796362 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.33644402188796363, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.34pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.34pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a320,977 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.37pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,333.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "79ce0fe4c976b238b7f6", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -1.5148788975511103, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -1.51pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.04pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0820563553936502, "delta": -0.11487889755111036 }, "results": [ { "value": -1.5148788975511103, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -1.51pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.04pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a5a9262d98c1be6bb1c3", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.4882045902361707, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.49pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.60pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.62pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2205114755904267, "delta": -0.08820459023617067 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.4882045902361707, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.49pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.60pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.62pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0aa125cd03d24a361ab7", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2028", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.2793569506640825, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.28pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.28pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.31pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3967847533204125, "delta": -0.07935695066408249 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.2793569506640825, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2027-28, engine period 2027): -0.28pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.28pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,220 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.31pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,397.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d12e5c5f91aa023c27af", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-3.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -3.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -3.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.651056909401241, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -2.65pp on each world's own median; -2.67pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8284552841878878, "delta": 0.5489430905987591 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.651056909401241, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -2.65pp on each world's own median; -2.67pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "71f9f6b85fc464cbc5c9", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.9%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.7958640764077742, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.80pp on each world's own median; -0.83pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.8842934182308603, "delta": 0.10413592359222579 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.7958640764077742, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.80pp on each world's own median; -0.83pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "593716b26928771544bc", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.4085995297441798, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.41pp on each world's own median; -0.43pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0214988243604495, "delta": -0.008599529744179768 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.4085995297441798, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.41pp on each world's own median; -0.43pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "77f5eaa2ffa0823bb2bd", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-2.1%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -2.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.830922687136038, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -2.83pp on each world's own median; -2.85pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.3480584224457324, "delta": -0.7309226871360379 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.830922687136038, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -2.83pp on each world's own median; -2.85pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3eb87f8fa94d57a21205", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.8322682464027924, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.83pp on each world's own median; -0.85pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.6645364928055848, "delta": -0.3322682464027924 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.8322682464027924, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.83pp on each world's own median; -0.85pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0b1ddf5d8a3b2f15f6f9", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.3992944559041831, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.40pp on each world's own median; -0.41pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.9964722795209155, "delta": -0.1992944559041831 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.3992944559041831, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.40pp on each world's own median; -0.41pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c9a86ffbc75a82fdc902", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.7%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.7437989040472868, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -2.74pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.67pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -3.22pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.6139993553219334, "delta": -1.0437989040472868 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.7437989040472868, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -2.74pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.67pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -3.22pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "79b7bc7c288a390375ea", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.8404872760068365, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.84pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.83pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.99pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.680974552013673, "delta": -0.3404872760068365 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.8404872760068365, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.84pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.83pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.99pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "382c885eb253a2d56852", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.4332645169958269, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.43pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.43pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.51pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.1663225849791345, "delta": -0.2332645169958269 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.4332645169958269, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.43pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.43pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,396 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.51pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a318,699.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "978e236e8c0141da2e0c", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -1.7866852884119329, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -1.79pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.85pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.24pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1911235256079553, "delta": -0.28668528841193286 }, "results": [ { "value": -1.7866852884119329, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -1.79pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.85pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.24pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b320012c5f5b0d053c66", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.5661334878306565, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.57pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.85pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.68pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4153337195766413, "delta": -0.1661334878306565 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.5661334878306565, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.57pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.85pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.68pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4b0d308abf15d4d05e1b", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2029", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.31246322363741896, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.31pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.41pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.33pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.5623161181870948, "delta": -0.11246322363741895 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.31246322363741896, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2028-29, engine period 2028): -0.31pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.41pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a324,704 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.33pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a321,825.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6497c54857b8fd0ff338", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-3.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -3.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -3.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -3.029414601962852, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -3.03pp on each world's own median; -3.05pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (253k children AHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +86k, data Populace to Microcosm +103k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +6k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +102k; the releases that move it most are 2.147.1 +116k, 2.148.2 -42k, 2.146.3 +38k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9466920631133913, "delta": 0.17058539803714812 }, "results": [ { "value": -3.029414601962852, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -3.03pp on each world's own median; -3.05pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (253k children AHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +86k, data Populace to Microcosm +103k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +6k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +102k; the releases that move it most are 2.147.1 +116k, 2.148.2 -42k, 2.146.3 +38k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "30432262d5f30a9012c6", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.8%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.9191762523375502, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.92pp on each world's own median; -0.94pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.1489703154219377, "delta": -0.11917625233755014 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.9191762523375502, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.92pp on each world's own median; -0.94pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b7fb63ef48525f90b84d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.4%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.463077681140291, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.46pp on each world's own median; -0.49pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.1576942028507275, "delta": -0.063077681140291 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.463077681140291, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.46pp on each world's own median; -0.49pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9ac757190e9ed186c53d", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-2.1%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -2.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -3.0604005606663627, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -3.06pp on each world's own median; -3.08pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (276k children BHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +30k, data Populace to Microcosm +143k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +4k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +10k; the releases that move it most are 2.146.3 +31k, 2.147.1 -25k, 2.141.6 -23k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.4573336003173154, "delta": -0.9604005606663626 }, "results": [ { "value": -3.0604005606663627, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -3.06pp on each world's own median; -3.08pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (276k children BHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +30k, data Populace to Microcosm +143k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +4k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +10k; the releases that move it most are 2.146.3 +31k, 2.147.1 -25k, 2.141.6 -23k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "af99fcfef8aefd761956", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.8835944944293228, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.88pp on each world's own median; -0.92pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.7671889888586456, "delta": -0.3835944944293228 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.8835944944293228, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.88pp on each world's own median; -0.92pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "301a562cd4e1120c9739", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.1%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.39921156961084847, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.40pp on each world's own median; -0.45pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 3.9921156961084847, "delta": -0.2992115696108485 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.39921156961084847, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.40pp on each world's own median; -0.45pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f0df150a5edf3555d37f", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.8%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.9650867409813255, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -2.97pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -3.05pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -3.46pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.647270411656292, "delta": -1.1650867409813255 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.9650867409813255, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -2.97pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -3.05pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -3.46pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "643b4b6a0c6bf7c52bf9", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.9109872591154602, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.91pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.94pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -1.07pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.8219745182309204, "delta": -0.4109872591154602 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.9109872591154602, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.91pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.94pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -1.07pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1c91294360b77b9702ba", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.46533050210373084, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.47pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.49pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.56pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.326652510518654, "delta": -0.2653305021037308 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.46533050210373084, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.47pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.49pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a321,824 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.56pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,073.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "eb0d9e819ef808b46db7", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.7%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -1.9641289626792275, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -1.96pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -3.08pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.26pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1553699780466045, "delta": -0.2641289626792276 }, "results": [ { "value": -1.9641289626792275, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -1.96pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -3.08pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.26pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4f6dcc0218e6aa18b696", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.6242832727285226, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.62pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.92pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.69pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2485665454570452, "delta": -0.12428327272852258 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.6242832727285226, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.62pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.92pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.69pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6268463c130a1200f4ea", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2030", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.3%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.3393459606088829, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.34pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.45pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.34pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1311532020296098, "delta": -0.0393459606088829 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.3393459606088829, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): -0.34pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.45pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,198 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.34pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,262.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f0e27d84fa943fb2d5a3", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, children: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-3.1%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -3.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -3.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.5225838548781354, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -2.52pp on each world's own median; -2.60pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8137367273800437, "delta": 0.5774161451218647 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.5225838548781354, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -2.52pp on each world's own median; -2.60pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c48c45c8a2bce06509d4", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.8%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.7757179296175885, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.78pp on each world's own median; -0.81pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9696474120219856, "delta": 0.02428207038241159 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.7757179296175885, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.78pp on each world's own median; -0.81pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8b108c4b0da7e647c408", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 1, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.3%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.3966914187642203, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.40pp on each world's own median; -0.43pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.3223047292140677, "delta": -0.09669141876422033 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.3966914187642203, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.40pp on each world's own median; -0.43pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "71710deef0dc8f202aae", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, children: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-2.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -2.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -3.4899677191844916, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -3.49pp on each world's own median; -3.55pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.5863489632656778, "delta": -1.2899677191844914 }, "results": [ { "value": -3.4899677191844916, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Relative low income on the same housing basis and group, but here the two readings of DWP's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the line held at the with-limit world's median, in the measured note) differ by more than half DWP's rounding unit, so the attached value is one construction of the concept rather than the concept itself.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -3.49pp on each world's own median; -3.55pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2dffe54c58ce594e828f", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "note": "republished differently: Child Poverty Strategy note Table A2: -0.5%", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.6%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -1.030991189177385, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "DWP publishes this cell twice: -0.6 percentage points in the Budget note (staged) and -0.5 in Table A2 of the Child Poverty Strategy note (5 December 2025).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -1.03pp on each world's own median; -1.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.7183186486289752, "delta": -0.4309911891773851 }, "results": [ { "value": -1.030991189177385, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "DWP publishes this cell twice: -0.6 percentage points in the Budget note (staged) and -0.5 in Table A2 of the Child Poverty Strategy note (5 December 2025).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -1.03pp on each world's own median; -1.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8bb43fbb58b8094c2d95", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 2, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.5091812623991583, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.51pp on each world's own median; -0.53pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 2.5459063119957914, "delta": -0.3091812623991583 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.5091812623991583, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, relative_moving bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_bhc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: relative low income (below 60% of the median, HBAI equivalised household income) on the same housing basis, for the same HBAI group, static, removal against a world that keeps the limit. DWP does not say whether its policy scenario's line is that scenario's own median or the baseline's; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median (in_relative_poverty_*), and the measured note gives the value with the line held at the with-limit world's median. The two differ by no more than half DWP's rounding unit, the lane's tolerance for a convention a source leaves unstated (two readings that close can still round to different published figures where they straddle a rounding boundary).", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Table 2's header cell reads 'Change in relative low income AHC compared to baseline' under a title that says before housing costs. The title governs: Table 2's values differ from Table 1's, and the Child Poverty Strategy note republishes it as Table A2 with a BHC header.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.51pp on each world's own median; -0.53pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3827447f4bb7a064c0f5", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, children: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.9%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -3.373647870410947, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -3.37pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.60pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.58pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.7756041423215512, "delta": -1.473647870410947 }, "results": [ { "value": -3.373647870410947, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -3.37pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -2.60pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -2.58pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "38408df1eab917c86bda", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -1.0222650342202702, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -1.02pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.81pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.81pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.0445300684405403, "delta": -0.5222650342202702 }, "results": [ { "value": -1.0222650342202702, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -1.02pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.81pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.81pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f395cca948e596d72808", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 3, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.5074977433594796, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.51pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.43pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.42pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.537488716797398, "delta": -0.3074977433594796 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.5074977433594796, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 ahc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income_ahc", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.51pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.43pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a322,261 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.42pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a319,455.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b2a3827ac69db9d4aead", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, children: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "children", "value_verbatim": "-1.7%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -1.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -2.2459985338870716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -2.25pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -3.55pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -3.25pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3211756081688657, "delta": -0.5459985338870716 }, "results": [ { "value": -2.2459985338870716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, children, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -2.25pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -3.55pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -3.25pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2e31f909524e61baa6a0", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, individuals: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "individuals", "value_verbatim": "-0.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.7091914194662365, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.71pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -1.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.99pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.418382838932473, "delta": -0.20919141946623654 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.7091914194662365, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, people, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "household_count_people" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.71pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -1.07pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.99pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8e33ccd24d96abc7f859", "source": "dwp", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Table 4, working_age_adults: percentage_points, FYE 2031", "name": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removing the two-child limit on Universal Credit: Impact on low income poverty levels in the United Kingdom", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/poverty-impacts-of-social-security-changes-at-budget-2025/removing-the-two-child-limit-on-universal-credit-impact-on-low-income-poverty-levels-in-the-united-kingdom", "metric": "poverty_rate_change", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "percent", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "pre_ab2025", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "bhc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "absolute", "poverty_line_anchor": "fye_2011", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "as published: 'Change in ... compared to baseline'; negative = reduction in the number in low income", "subgroup": "working_age_adults", "value_verbatim": "-0.3%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2b195b9a58524193", "external_value": -0.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "pre_ab2025", "latest": { "value": -0.3815438865711105, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.38pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.53pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.49pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.271812955237035, "delta": -0.0815438865711105 }, "results": [ { "value": -0.3815438865711105, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, absolute_fye2011 bhc, working_age_adults, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "equiv_hbai_household_net_income", "is_hbai_working_age_adult" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "DWP's absolute low income line is 60% of the FYE 2011 median, uprated by HBAI's CPI variants: the note cites the HBAI FYE 2024 methodology and predates HBAI's March 2026 move to an FYE 2025 reference year. policyengine-uk 2.132.6 serves the FYE 2025 line (in_poverty_*), so the attached value uses a constructed FYE 2011 line: the engine's own FYE 2011 entry (305.7 a week BHC, 261.92 AHC, in FYE 2021 prices) uprated by the engine's OBR CPI index, as policyengine-uk did before it rebased. Headline CPI stands in for HBAI's CPI variants. The measured note gives the count on the served FYE 2025 line, which is a different line.", "Both are static. DWP's Policy Simulation Model 'does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as ... an increase in the take-up of benefits among those already eligible but not claiming'. PolicyEngine runs no behavioural response, and would_claim_uc is a dataset input with no formula, so no family's decision to claim responds to the reform.", "Groups follow HBAI: children are dependent children (under 16, or 16 to 19 and not married, in a civil partnership or living with a partner, living with parents or a responsible adult, and in full-time non-advanced education or unwaged government training); pensioners are adults at or above State Pension age, so working-age adults are the adults below it; individuals are everyone. PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child, is_hbai_working_age_adult and all people.", "FYE N is the financial year April N-1 to March N (FYE 2030 = 2029-30). PolicyEngine runs it as engine period N-1: by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year (parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year instead, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "DWP rounds numbers to the nearest 50,000 and rates to the nearest 0.1 percentage point 'due to uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach'; PolicyEngine's value is unrounded.", "Different data and forecasts: DWP's model pools FRS FYE 2022-2024 and is consistent with the OBR's November 2025 forecasts; the certified pair is the Microcosm UK national release (an FRS calibration build whose data year is 2024-25) projected with policyengine-uk 2.132.6's parameters and uprating.", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2030-31, engine period 2030): -0.38pp on each world's own FYE 2011 line; -0.53pp with the relative line held at the with-limit world's median.", "On the absolute line the engine serves (FYE 2025 reference, \u00a325,702 a year for a couple without children) the change is -0.49pp; the constructed FYE 2011 line is \u00a322,707.", "PE oriented to it: negative = fewer in low income, as the tables print it." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "559dfd6172fe158c4c63", "source": "ey_item_club", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "EY ITEM Club Autumn Forecast: Tightening the purse strings", "window": "", "publication_title": "EY ITEM Club Autumn Forecast: Tightening the purse strings", "url": "https://www.ey.com/content/dam/ey-unified-site/ey-com/en-uk/newsroom/2025/11/ey-uk-ey-item-club-autumn-forecast-11-2025.pdf", "metric": "fiscal_headroom", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "point_in_time", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/55", "basis": "outturn", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "UK", "measure_type": "typical headroom left by governments against their fiscal targets (historical norm)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "sign_convention": "positive = headroom inside the fiscal rule; negative = shortfall against it", "timing": "pre-Budget expectation", "value_verbatim": "30bn" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 30000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 30000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:macro", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "Parameters: none searched \u2014 a macro-fiscal aggregate names no engine lever; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:macro", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "Parameters: none searched \u2014 a macro-fiscal aggregate names no engine lever; the Macro entry point (#55) answers it", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "macro-fiscal quantity: the household model has no forecast, no fiscal rule, no headroom and no GDP or CPI channel; 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Parameters: 14 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount']. Variables: 1 ['high_value_council_tax_surcharge']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__corporation_tax_plus_1p_and_bank_surcharge", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax and the bank surcharge are business-side taxes outside a household microsimulation (the engine's business_rates incidence via shareholdings is the only corporate leg it holds).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|bank_surcharge|surcharge|profits/. Parameters: 14 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount']. Variables: 1 ['high_value_council_tax_surcharge']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__corporation_tax_plus_1p_and_bank_surcharge", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax and the bank surcharge are business-side taxes outside a household microsimulation (the engine's business_rates incidence via shareholdings is the only corporate leg it holds).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|bank_surcharge|surcharge|profits/. Parameters: 14 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount']. Variables: 1 ['high_value_council_tax_surcharge']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax and the bank surcharge are business-side taxes outside a household microsimulation (the engine's business_rates incidence via shareholdings is the only corporate leg it holds).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "225d6c05da3d24ada007", "source": "fabian_society", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Taxing Questions: How the chancellor can raise revenue fairly at the Autumn Budget", "window": "", "publication_title": "Taxing Questions: How the chancellor can raise revenue fairly at the Autumn Budget", "url": "https://fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Taxing-Questions-FINAL-word-betterworld.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Horserace Betting Levy from 10 to 20 per cent", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to British racing (Horserace Betting Levy)", "value_verbatim": "approximately \u00a3140m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 140000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:not_this_quantity", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2819861ff8fa8f6a5412", "source": "fabian_society", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Taxing Questions: How the chancellor can raise revenue fairly at the Autumn Budget", "window": "", "publication_title": "Taxing Questions: How the chancellor can raise revenue fairly at the Autumn Budget", "url": "https://fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Taxing-Questions-FINAL-word-betterworld.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__insurance_premium_tax_on_private_medical_insurance_20pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No insurance premium tax and no private-medical-insurance holding on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "insurance premium tax on private medical insurance from 12 per cent to the higher rate of 20 per cent", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "an additional \u00a3550m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__insurance_premium_tax_on_private_medical_insurance_20pct", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1345ef7e2957e0d1", "external_value": 550000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 550000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__insurance_premium_tax_on_private_medical_insurance_20pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No insurance premium tax and no private-medical-insurance holding on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /insurance_premium|ipt\\b|medical_insurance|private_medical/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__insurance_premium_tax_on_private_medical_insurance_20pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No insurance premium tax and no private-medical-insurance holding on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /insurance_premium|ipt\\b|medical_insurance|private_medical/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No insurance premium tax and no private-medical-insurance holding on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6a7f908216e5c40d7fbc", "source": "fabian_society", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Taxing Questions: How the chancellor can raise revenue fairly at the Autumn Budget", "window": "", "publication_title": "Taxing Questions: How the chancellor can raise revenue fairly at the Autumn Budget", "url": "https://fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Taxing-Questions-FINAL-word-betterworld.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_rental_income", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "property_income and the separate property-income rate schedule exist at the pin; an NI-type charge on rental income is a new base with no parameter (NI base extension switch). 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e5df637d370f16779f7f", "source": "fabian_society", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Taxing Questions: How the chancellor can raise revenue fairly at the Autumn Budget", "window": "", "publication_title": "Taxing Questions: How the chancellor can raise revenue fairly at the Autumn Budget", "url": "https://fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Taxing-Questions-FINAL-word-betterworld.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_rental_income", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "property_income and the separate property-income rate schedule exist at the pin; an NI-type charge on rental income is a new base with no parameter (NI base extension switch). The Fabians' variant (rental rates 28/42/47) IS expressible via gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.*.", "reform_hint": "rental income taxed at the same top rate of 47 per cent, higher rate of 42 per cent and basic rate of 28 per cent as income from work", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a31-2bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_rental_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6f7d4d097c61e99e", "external_value": 1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], 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"ab2025_option__personal_tax_threshold_freeze_two_more_years_to_2030", "model": "PolicyEngine ('Modelling conducted using Policy Engine', footnote 3)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "freezing income tax thresholds for a further two years until 2029/30 (footnote 3: 'The basic and higher rate thresholds were frozen in cash terms for an additional two years (2028/29 and 2029/30)')", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a311.7bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__personal_tax_threshold_freeze_two_more_years_to_2030", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", 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2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 38278702.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 38278702.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 38995569.54350376, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0187275823381827, "delta": 716867.5435037613 }, "results": [ { "value": 38995569.54350376, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0c8a710b9466bdf11ff7", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Alabama, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Alabama", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AL", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "AL", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 796869.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 796869.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 773450.5892315438, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9706119691336265, "delta": -23418.410768456175 }, "results": [ { "value": 773450.5892315438, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c3a6815ea1a765b38c33", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Alaska, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Alaska", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AK", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "AK", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 70014.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 70014.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 103844.57555363413, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4831972970210834, "delta": 33830.57555363413 }, "results": [ { "value": 103844.57555363413, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "d8333a50a82d3ba7f047", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Arizona, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Arizona", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AZ", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "AZ", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 822250.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 822250.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 971482.3606550664, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1814926855032732, "delta": 149232.36065506644 }, "results": [ { "value": 971482.3606550664, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "21fbd9df0edadd842000", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Arkansas, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Arkansas", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AR", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "AR", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 454106.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 454106.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 399459.7582624811, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8796619253268644, "delta": -54646.241737518925 }, "results": [ { "value": 399459.7582624811, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5a5784965df967b86cbc", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: California, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, California", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "CA", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 4617552.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 4617552.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 4369822.700518019, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9463505122450204, "delta": -247729.29948198143 }, "results": [ { "value": 4369822.700518019, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c49b1ea5d5aaa3be1133", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Colorado, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Colorado", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CO", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "CO", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 427576.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 427576.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 466302.77328515594, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0905728415185978, "delta": 38726.77328515594 }, "results": [ { "value": 466302.77328515594, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "11667f0955cd189fe92d", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Connecticut, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Connecticut", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CT", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "CT", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 304710.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 304710.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 275854.08972958906, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9053004159022975, "delta": -28855.91027041094 }, "results": [ { "value": 275854.08972958906, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aea994fe1ae0a6b6e56e", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Delaware, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Delaware", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "DE", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "DE", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 92179.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 92179.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 112434.29710824875, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2197387377629259, "delta": 20255.29710824875 }, "results": [ { "value": 112434.29710824875, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3a226c7da4b8794f85ea", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: District of Columbia, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, District of Columbia", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "DC", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "DC", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 124462.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 124462.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 73320.63355878547, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.3% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5891005572687685, "delta": -51141.36644121453 }, "results": [ { "value": 73320.63355878547, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.3% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "e49b1e2aad2626811155", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Florida, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Florida", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "FL", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "FL", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2926900.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2926900.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2643632.4107062086, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.903219245859513, "delta": -283267.58929379145 }, "results": [ { "value": 2643632.4107062086, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1c794b47fc5dc528a337", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Georgia, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Georgia", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "GA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "GA", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1534743.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1534743.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1311904.7325100824, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8548041805762153, "delta": -222838.26748991758 }, "results": [ { "value": 1311904.7325100824, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "80b64f9dc2e058447997", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Hawaii, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Hawaii", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "HI", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "HI", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 161104.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 161104.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 106741.84677101039, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6625648448890803, "delta": -54362.15322898961 }, "results": [ { "value": 106741.84677101039, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "e070cbe11d3e9a922544", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Idaho, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Idaho", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ID", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "ID", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 156238.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 156238.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 126495.05258828097, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8096305161886416, "delta": -29742.947411719026 }, "results": [ { "value": 126495.05258828097, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2b1b76be75b40f277fb9", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Illinois, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Illinois", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IL", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "IL", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1539693.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1539693.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1463559.8560635627, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 123.1% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9505530362634387, "delta": -76133.14393643732 }, "results": [ { "value": 1463559.8560635627, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 123.1% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "001d5dca7bab7f660777", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Indiana, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Indiana", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IN", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "IN", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 625253.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 625253.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 900139.5317177706, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4396404842803963, "delta": 274886.5317177706 }, "results": [ { "value": 900139.5317177706, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "87453cdea716ae97b617", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Iowa, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Iowa", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "IA", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 224333.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 224333.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 254654.76273639375, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1351640763347066, "delta": 30321.76273639375 }, "results": [ { "value": 254654.76273639375, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "928df87efba39a252742", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Kansas, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Kansas", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KS", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "KS", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 230768.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 230768.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 278232.88661480736, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2056822723029508, "delta": 47464.88661480736 }, "results": [ { "value": 278232.88661480736, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4eeffefa54ee835834f4", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Kentucky, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Kentucky", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KY", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "KY", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 633417.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 633417.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 735332.9774483264, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1608987088258231, "delta": 101915.97744832642 }, "results": [ { "value": 735332.9774483264, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1ec8e8987ed855910fba", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Louisiana, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Louisiana", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "LA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "LA", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 775630.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 775630.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 784708.3787455506, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0117045224469794, "delta": 9078.378745550639 }, "results": [ { "value": 784708.3787455506, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b43c0ee41c161a751057", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Maine, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Maine", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ME", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "ME", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 126472.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 126472.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 65056.867144276795, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5143973934489594, "delta": -61415.132855723205 }, "results": [ { "value": 65056.867144276795, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "d892dd3e17ef36e48218", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Maryland, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Maryland", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MD", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MD", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 543232.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 543232.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 706755.2090979615, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3010191025159812, "delta": 163523.20909796155 }, "results": [ { "value": 706755.2090979615, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "2005cb4df9f0f9b0b41a", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Massachusetts, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Massachusetts", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MA", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 815773.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 815773.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 852921.1630467554, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.9% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0455373774895165, "delta": 37148.16304675536 }, "results": [ { "value": 852921.1630467554, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.9% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "720cfe9f2fb6ae1ccaeb", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Michigan, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Michigan", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MI", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MI", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1026970.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1026970.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1064987.9727503443, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped at 100%. The report prints no uncapped value for it: the cap's own redistribution raised it over 100% after Exhibit A.3 was drawn (report ch. II.D)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0370195553427504, "delta": 38017.972750344314 }, "results": [ { "value": 1064987.9727503443, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped at 100%. The report prints no uncapped value for it: the cap's own redistribution raised it over 100% after Exhibit A.3 was drawn (report ch. II.D)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e91e7253321750f31681", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Minnesota, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Minnesota", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MN", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MN", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 372438.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 372438.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 403252.7987258181, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0827380630489318, "delta": 30814.79872581811 }, "results": [ { "value": 403252.7987258181, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "18ac72cdfa1e0cada808", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Mississippi, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Mississippi", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MS", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MS", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 546475.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 546475.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 467282.71376904286, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8550852532486259, "delta": -79192.28623095714 }, "results": [ { "value": 467282.71376904286, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3bd5a4601e4693896a1f", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Missouri, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Missouri", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MO", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MO", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 650863.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 650863.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 829963.0075263992, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2751731278723775, "delta": 179100.00752639922 }, "results": [ { "value": 829963.0075263992, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "eff256eed2acec763cb8", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Montana, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Montana", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MT", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MT", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 99076.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 99076.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 64486.11028365925, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6508751895883892, "delta": -34589.88971634075 }, "results": [ { "value": 64486.11028365925, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "0b2761ae8fb1eb1bc627", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Nebraska, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Nebraska", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NE", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NE", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 144217.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 144217.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 141718.58512629784, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9826760030114192, "delta": -2498.4148737021605 }, "results": [ { "value": 141718.58512629784, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d49df7bf494d054fa4f6", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Nevada, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Nevada", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NV", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NV", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 350325.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 350325.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 531171.6555735668, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.5162253780734083, "delta": 180846.6555735668 }, "results": [ { "value": 531171.6555735668, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "80c2ff6ca97e136b46d0", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: New Hampshire, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, New Hampshire", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NH", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NH", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 68108.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 68108.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 75645.65091792449, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.110672034385454, "delta": 7537.6509179244895 }, "results": [ { "value": 75645.65091792449, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fd79616b36164adfcc00", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: New Jersey, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, New Jersey", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NJ", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NJ", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 774508.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 774508.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 986199.2430152415, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2733235073301263, "delta": 211691.24301524146 }, "results": [ { "value": 986199.2430152415, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a1a31541af175255a6db", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: New Mexico, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, New Mexico", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NM", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NM", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 439272.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 439272.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 333567.88605855056, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.9% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7593652362512305, "delta": -105704.11394144944 }, "results": [ { "value": 333567.88605855056, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.9% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "54a6dab5bac0ea9f0ab9", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: New York, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, New York", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NY", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NY", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 2557581.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2557581.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 3081158.55900769, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.20471592454264, "delta": 523577.5590076898 }, "results": [ { "value": 3081158.55900769, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9c7f4c7eee4a38f5029f", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: North Carolina, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, North Carolina", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NC", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NC", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1273122.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1273122.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1188386.4267159658, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9334426918362623, "delta": -84735.57328403415 }, "results": [ { "value": 1188386.4267159658, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0282d537370ed5ed7153", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: North Dakota, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, North Dakota", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ND", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "ND", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 46050.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 46050.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 33632.39048003263, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7303450701418595, "delta": -12417.609519967373 }, "results": [ { "value": 33632.39048003263, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "67d6df2fd3de6ac6b6c4", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Ohio, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Ohio", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OH", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "OH", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1307013.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1307013.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1260840.1872954166, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9646730271966818, "delta": -46172.8127045834 }, "results": [ { "value": 1260840.1872954166, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f7fd218e5dbb4c130d6c", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Oklahoma, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Oklahoma", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OK", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "OK", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 597177.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 597177.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 605191.6370582993, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0134208736409795, "delta": 8014.637058299268 }, "results": [ { "value": 605191.6370582993, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "68bad32fa040ead62085", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Oregon, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Oregon", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OR", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "OR", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 483101.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 483101.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 490217.56977138686, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 116.8% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.014731018506248, "delta": 7116.569771386858 }, "results": [ { "value": 490217.56977138686, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 116.8% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b798dd1d54fd79766867", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Pennsylvania, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Pennsylvania", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "PA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "PA", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1387198.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1387198.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1607272.1104933785, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 109.3% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1586465021528134, "delta": 220074.11049337848 }, "results": [ { "value": 1607272.1104933785, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 109.3% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cb8c6b249c1aac04089d", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Rhode Island, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Rhode Island", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "RI", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "RI", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 111905.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 111905.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 133639.3212082036, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 101.2% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.194221180538882, "delta": 21734.32120820359 }, "results": [ { "value": 133639.3212082036, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 101.2% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "66f95051bfb8902fbd7e", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: South Carolina, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, South Carolina", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "SC", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "SC", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 732890.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 732890.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 568991.1867190703, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7763664215899662, "delta": -163898.8132809297 }, "results": [ { "value": 568991.1867190703, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2c65ce90b2feb4248899", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: South Dakota, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, South Dakota", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "SD", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "SD", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 80223.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 80223.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 101569.35286765866, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2660876914059391, "delta": 21346.352867658657 }, "results": [ { "value": 101569.35286765866, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4d203bfcbdf684037c3c", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Tennessee, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Tennessee", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "TN", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "TN", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 869286.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 869286.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1011569.5339830572, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1636786212858108, "delta": 142283.53398305725 }, "results": [ { "value": 1011569.5339830572, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8c317a66233dbd64e287", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Texas, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Texas", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "TX", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "TX", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 3846398.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 3846398.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 3587296.0876074866, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9326377789317399, "delta": -259101.91239251336 }, "results": [ { "value": 3587296.0876074866, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c8365db078d089b72818", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Utah, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Utah", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UT", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "UT", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 197170.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 197170.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 271022.4495687001, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3745623044514892, "delta": 73852.4495687001 }, "results": [ { "value": 271022.4495687001, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "6626c874e7c1f9a072d4", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Vermont, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Vermont", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "VT", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "VT", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 54697.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 54697.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 36356.142674948045, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6646825726264337, "delta": -18340.857325051955 }, "results": [ { "value": 36356.142674948045, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F2, confidence medium] State SNAP eligible-count gaps follow PE's participant scale (person grain), not the eligibility rules", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "7e9a8c954846a4aed2f7", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Virginia, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Virginia", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "VA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "VA", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 804116.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 804116.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 765513.4557082229, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9519938114752385, "delta": -38602.54429177707 }, "results": [ { "value": 765513.4557082229, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "68ac7f77bc38c013f3c1", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Washington, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Washington", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "WA", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 625211.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 625211.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 660782.3765546158, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 100.7% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.056894994737162, "delta": 35571.376554615796 }, "results": [ { "value": 660782.3765546158, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 100.7% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aa5d142077e9e2becc05", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: West Virginia, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, West Virginia", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WV", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "WV", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 255283.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 255283.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 270845.70018074923, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0609625403209348, "delta": 15562.700180749234 }, "results": [ { "value": 270845.70018074923, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bdd836b146791a39e758", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Wisconsin, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Wisconsin", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WI", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "WI", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 527559.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 527559.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 611574.6990579749, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 113.5% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1592536551513193, "delta": 84015.69905797485 }, "results": [ { "value": 611574.6990579749, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 113.5% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "90c655b99aa8b5d6b9b5", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.18: Wyoming, FY 2022", "name": "People eligible for SNAP, Wyoming", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "eligible_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "count", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WY", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "WY", "program": "snap", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 47196.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 47196.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 35327.27971054775, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7485227500327941, "delta": -11868.720289452249 }, "results": [ { "value": 35327.27971054775, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e1272093bb6bdd95d3ff", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Alabama, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Alabama", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AL", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "AL", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8988, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8988, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1125945705384956, "delta": 0.10119999999999996 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "07d5bc2e1ecac424c0cc", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Alaska, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Alaska", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AK", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "AK", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.7278, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7278, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9978952125347794, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.371111861135998, "delta": 0.2700952125347794 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9978952125347794, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "e21605083047c2bffd29", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Arizona, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Arizona", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AZ", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "AZ", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.7725, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7725, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7834042704064107, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0141155603966483, "delta": 0.010904270406410732 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7834042704064107, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "29b2550dadb52fa624b4", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Arkansas, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Arkansas", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AR", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "AR", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.5889, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.5889, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.6980811682798438, "delta": 0.4111 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "a15ff9fa6bce63b17141", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: California, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, California", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "CA", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8065, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8065, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9848672082985472, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2211620685660847, "delta": 0.17836720829854724 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9848672082985472, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "6a648bc113028180fa9a", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Colorado, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Colorado", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CO", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "CO", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9992, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9992, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9851189917406478, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9859077179149798, "delta": -0.014081008259352212 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9851189917406478, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d6c748d73907c86ac096", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Connecticut, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Connecticut", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CT", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "CT", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9822, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9822, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9811524711887547, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9989334872620187, "delta": -0.0010475288112452574 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9811524711887547, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1c3f19e45816e28a7707", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Delaware, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Delaware", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "DE", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "DE", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9136, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9136, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.958961119393928, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.049650962559028, "delta": 0.04536111939392806 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.958961119393928, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2cc6e5f3902b9d7623e3", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: District of Columbia, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, District of Columbia", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "DC", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "DC", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.3% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.3% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b3eae7f322c8344804f8", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Florida, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Florida", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "FL", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "FL", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8073, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8073, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2386968908708038, "delta": 0.19269999999999998 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "f4f137aa027f76b177a1", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Georgia, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Georgia", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "GA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "GA", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9217, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9217, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0849517196484757, "delta": 0.07830000000000004 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cd282229d3ba9bb7644d", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Hawaii, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Hawaii", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "HI", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "HI", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8081, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8081, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2374706100730106, "delta": 0.19189999999999996 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "e48647585b666b7a0b2c", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Idaho, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Idaho", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ID", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "ID", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.7293, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7293, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3711778417660772, "delta": 0.27070000000000005 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "e6dcf3763a5e4a55f84b", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Illinois, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Illinois", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IL", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "IL", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 123.1% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 123.1% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "feac5ce471c3bb203a05", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Indiana, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Indiana", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IN", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "IN", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8902, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8902, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1233430689732644, "delta": 0.10980000000000001 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "cfdbc229ee38dfa0dd36", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Iowa, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Iowa", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "IA", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9762, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9762, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8491540926920086, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8698566817168701, "delta": -0.12704590730799137 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8491540926920086, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F3, confidence medium] Iowa and Wisconsin: PE puts too much of the SNAP caseload in BBCE-only units, so too few federally eligible people carry the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "c11411f927de86a2ba08", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Kansas, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Kansas", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KS", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "KS", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.7892, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7892, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8615098318614369, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.091624216752961, "delta": 0.07230983186143691 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8615098318614369, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "401ebf62c3925654e11d", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Kentucky, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Kentucky", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KY", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "KY", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.7463, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7463, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7968107916937514, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0676816182416606, "delta": 0.05051079169375139 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7968107916937514, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9ceca8223ef6ae70a996", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Louisiana, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Louisiana", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "LA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "LA", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9916, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9916, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.008471157724889, "delta": 0.008399999999999963 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f89d6953e7407fb95034", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Maine, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Maine", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ME", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "ME", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9393, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9393, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9998633157768011, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0644770741794964, "delta": 0.060563315776801074 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9998633157768011, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "37096d59fcb94091444f", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Maryland, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Maryland", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MD", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MD", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8499, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8499, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9087369290426098, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0692280609984819, "delta": 0.05883692904260984 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9087369290426098, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e2000d224de8d5845de4", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Massachusetts, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Massachusetts", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MA", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.9% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.9% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b2ef8f8150b319e06d3a", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Michigan, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Michigan", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MI", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MI", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.919536826351059, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped at 100%. The report prints no uncapped value for it: the cap's own redistribution raised it over 100% after Exhibit A.3 was drawn (report ch. II.D)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.919536826351059, "delta": -0.08046317364894096 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.919536826351059, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped at 100%. The report prints no uncapped value for it: the cap's own redistribution raised it over 100% after Exhibit A.3 was drawn (report ch. II.D)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f720a57d0784cf29ec97", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Minnesota, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Minnesota", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MN", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MN", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9329, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9329, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9317061771822187, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9987203099820118, "delta": -0.0011938228177812427 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9317061771822187, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "556a9c41aa6811a53ee9", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Mississippi, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Mississippi", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MS", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MS", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.735, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.735, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3605442176870748, "delta": 0.265 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "0f4a45b96862062535d0", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Missouri, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Missouri", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MO", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MO", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9187, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9187, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.088494611951671, "delta": 0.08130000000000004 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cf19b18f6fe4a772c77f", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Montana, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Montana", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MT", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "MT", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.7508, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7508, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7200059741439022, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9589850481405197, "delta": -0.030794025856097806 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7200059741439022, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "67ad8af03ce60d1b724c", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Nebraska, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Nebraska", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NE", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NE", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9319, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9319, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9999643810519336, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0730382884986949, "delta": 0.06806438105193369 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9999643810519336, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c61a0b3173fb24bf3476", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Nevada, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Nevada", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NV", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NV", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9819, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9819, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0184336490477646, "delta": 0.018100000000000005 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "515fe00c31c2e78ac09a", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: New Hampshire, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, New Hampshire", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NH", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NH", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8233, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8233, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9115407885871374, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1071793861133699, "delta": 0.08824078858713735 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9115407885871374, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b7390003dd1b7e76a27f", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: New Jersey, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, New Jersey", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NJ", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NJ", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9103, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9103, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9368143255424342, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0291270191611932, "delta": 0.02651432554243416 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9368143255424342, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5a14f3e04c730de39583", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: New Mexico, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, New Mexico", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NM", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NM", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.9% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 122.9% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5742d6c62aa85c0bb4e7", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: New York, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, New York", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NY", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NY", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9128, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9128, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9626691380905292, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0546331486530776, "delta": 0.049869138090529286 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9626691380905292, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a04ee03aa3a4ab5d9b73", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: North Carolina, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, North Carolina", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NC", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "NC", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9471, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9471, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9999964410052606, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0558509566099257, "delta": 0.052896441005260586 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9999964410052606, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "30bd7f82c2276949fa53", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: North Dakota, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, North Dakota", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ND", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "ND", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8123, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8123, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2310722639418934, "delta": 0.18769999999999998 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "50402beab2223d6c3bdb", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Ohio, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Ohio", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OH", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "OH", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9873, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9873, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0128633647320977, "delta": 0.012700000000000045 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ebc29d71d00181b74f0c", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Oklahoma, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Oklahoma", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OK", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "OK", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9847, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9847, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0155377272265664, "delta": 0.01529999999999998 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "27eaea59e4b42b297d14", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Oregon, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Oregon", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OR", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "OR", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 116.8% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 116.8% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6f2f1a5568a34d746bae", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Pennsylvania, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Pennsylvania", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "PA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "PA", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 109.3% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 109.3% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4797ae349e1befb35bc0", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Rhode Island, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Rhode Island", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "RI", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "RI", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 101.2% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit.", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 101.2% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "833d3ffb0d632e42425d", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: South Carolina, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, South Carolina", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "SC", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "SC", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.758, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.758, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.99999989409802, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.319261074007942, "delta": 0.24199989409802003 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.99999989409802, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "d16d6436f18261518b6c", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: South Dakota, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, South Dakota", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "SD", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "SD", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8409, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8409, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9999979323854716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1891995866160918, "delta": 0.15909793238547165 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9999979323854716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "939a4137a0fb23f648ab", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Tennessee, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Tennessee", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "TN", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "TN", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8442, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8442, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1845534233593935, "delta": 0.15580000000000005 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "ca30f0b063b953fab0db", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Texas, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Texas", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "TX", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "TX", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.7379, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7379, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.355197181189863, "delta": 0.2621 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "573ae00af9b91d404df3", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Utah, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Utah", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UT", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "UT", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.7609, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.7609, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3142331449599158, "delta": 0.23909999999999998 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "69fac806b8f77b0fede3", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Vermont, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Vermont", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "VT", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "VT", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9898, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9898, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0103051121438675, "delta": 0.010199999999999987 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e499c06d46c4ce296391", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Virginia, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Virginia", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "VA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "VA", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.832, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.832, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7539394414391236, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9061772132681775, "delta": -0.07806055856087635 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7539394414391236, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "890ea7e8936b0da92fe1", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Washington, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Washington", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WA", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "WA", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9999993349767446, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 100.7% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9999993349767446, "delta": -6.650232553528923e-07 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9999993349767446, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 100.7% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "33fa88cb1d321e32948e", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: West Virginia, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, West Virginia", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WV", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "WV", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.9757, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9757, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0249051962693452, "delta": 0.02429999999999999 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8aef9c831d92d2588136", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Wisconsin, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Wisconsin", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WI", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "WI", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 1.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.0, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8603737832189388, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 113.5% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8603737832189388, "delta": -0.13962621678106124 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8603737832189388, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is capped: FNS's implied FY 2022 rate before the cap was 113.5% (Exhibit A.3)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F3, confidence medium] Iowa and Wisconsin: PE puts too much of the SNAP caseload in BBCE-only units, so too few federally eligible people carry the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "6fd802d6a401b05b7a2a", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table A.17: Wyoming, FY 2022", "name": "SNAP participation rate, Wyoming", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WY", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "WY", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.6255, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.6255, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.598721023181455, "delta": 0.37450000000000006 }, "results": [ { "value": 1.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "FNS counts only people eligible under federal income and resource rules: BBCE-only eligibility is excluded from both the eligible count and the participants. PolicyEngine's counterpart is computed the same way, with BBCE (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible) turned off for every month, so a BBCE-only unit is neither eligible nor a participant.", "PolicyEngine's SNAP participants are calibrated to FNS average-month household counts, national and by State, so the rate's numerator agrees partly by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine treats the SPM unit as the SNAP unit and counts its members who are not excluded (students, immigration status, work rules). FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1).", "This State is saturated in PolicyEngine: every federally eligible person's SPM unit carries the SNAP take-up flag (measured). Populace's take-up stage sets every eligible unit to take up when the FNS household target meets or exceeds the eligible weight, so this rate reflects calibration, not take-up behavior. Eligible people outside participating units here are in units with a zero benefit." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 F1, confidence high] SNAP State rates of 96-100% are saturation, not take-up: every federally eligible unit carries the take-up flag", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/647" } }, { "claim_id": "fa0c5ddc7678f32e806a", "source": "fns_snap_rates", "country": "US", "source_column": "Table B.2b: United States, FY 2022 (whole percent)", "name": "SNAP participation rate, United States", "window": "FY 2022, average month", "publication_title": "Empirical Bayes Shrinkage Estimates of State SNAP Participation Rates: Fiscal Year 2020 and Fiscal Year 2022", "url": "https://www.fns.usda.gov/research/snap/state-participation-rates/2022", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "average_month", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "snap", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "snap", "rate_unit": "persons", "year_basis": "federal_fiscal_year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.88, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.88, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9699077432862786, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). 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FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. Measured: as served, PolicyEngine has 60.6 million people in participating SPM units in an average 2024 month; FNS counts 41.1 million participants in FY 2022 (Table A.1)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1021678900980438, "delta": 0.0899077432862786 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9699077432862786, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "Average of the 12 months of CY2024: weighted persons who are not is_snap_excluded_member in SPM units with is_snap_eligible (eligible_persons) and with snap > 0 (participants), in the federal-rules world (is_tanf_non_cash_eligible forced False for every month, so BBCE-only units are neither eligible nor participants); participation_rate = participants / eligible_persons; takeup_flag_share = eligible_persons whose SPM unit has takes_up_snap_if_eligible / eligible_persons. baseline_* repeat the counts in the as-served world (BBCE included).", "policyengine_variables": [ "is_snap_eligible", "snap", "is_snap_excluded_member", "is_tanf_non_cash_eligible", "takes_up_snap_if_eligible", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:01:11.066966+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are the average month of calendar 2024 on the certified data; FNS values are the average month of fiscal 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022). 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FNS builds the SNAP household inside the CPS household from purchase-and-prepare rules, and imputes resources, deductions and monthly income that the CPS does not record.", "FNS caps State rates at 100%: where the estimated eligible count fell below the participant count, FNS raised the eligible count to equal participants and reduced other States in proportion. In a capped State the published eligible count equals participants and the rate is 100% by construction.", "FNS State values are shrinkage estimates from a small survey sample. Rate standard errors range from 1.7 to 6.3 points, so a 90% confidence interval (estimate plus or minus 1.645 standard errors) spans about 6 to 21 points.", "FNS counts people in SNAP households. PolicyEngine's SNAP calibration matches FNS at household grain only, and SPM-unit membership overcounts the members of SNAP assistance units. 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April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "The claim is a lower bound (over 6%).", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 6.19% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0313057096682805, "delta": 0.18783425800968345 }, "results": [ { "value": 6.1878342580096835, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "The claim is a lower bound (over 6%).", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 6.19% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e44f61711bb76b235928", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Q1 2026 dual fuel cap", "name": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b353345e31ab14ecf735/E03444720_Budget_2025_Web_Accessible.pdf", "metric": "energy_bill_change", "unit_concept": "gbp_per_household", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "point_in_time", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Great Britain", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "VAT savings", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "Great Britain", "period_detail": "Q1 2026 dual fuel cap announced on 21 November 2025", "reform_hint": "Energy bills package: Exchequer funds 75% of the domestic cost of the legacy Renewables Obligation 2026-27 to 2028-29 and the Energy Company Obligation is not renewed from April 2026", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households (reduction in costs)", "subgroup": "typical dual fuel household (Ofgem price cap typical domestic consumption values)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a36" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5a24f4aaef397698", "external_value": 6.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:bill_increase:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -6.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f404b733b9b6ee4d735d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Q1 2026 dual fuel cap", "name": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b353345e31ab14ecf735/E03444720_Budget_2025_Web_Accessible.pdf", "metric": "energy_bill_change", "unit_concept": "gbp_per_household", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "point_in_time", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Great Britain", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "ECO", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "Great Britain", "period_detail": "Q1 2026 dual fuel cap announced on 21 November 2025", "reform_hint": "Energy bills package: Exchequer funds 75% of the domestic cost of the legacy Renewables Obligation 2026-27 to 2028-29 and the Energy Company Obligation is not renewed from April 2026", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households (reduction in costs)", "subgroup": "typical dual fuel household (Ofgem price cap typical domestic consumption values)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a360" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5a24f4aaef397698", "external_value": 60.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:bill_increase:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -60.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f7fd0bd182c6e8fa3537", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Q1 2026 dual fuel cap", "name": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b353345e31ab14ecf735/E03444720_Budget_2025_Web_Accessible.pdf", "metric": "energy_bill_change", "unit_concept": "gbp_per_household", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "point_in_time", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Great Britain", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "total (RO + ECO + VAT)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "Great Britain", "period_detail": "Q1 2026 dual fuel cap announced on 21 November 2025", "reform_hint": "Energy bills package: Exchequer funds 75% of the domestic cost of the legacy Renewables Obligation 2026-27 to 2028-29 and the Energy Company Obligation is not renewed from April 2026", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households (reduction in costs)", "subgroup": "typical dual fuel household (Ofgem price cap typical domestic consumption values)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3134" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5a24f4aaef397698", "external_value": 134.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:bill_increase:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -134.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fe66761da6d5dbf51223", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Q1 2026 dual fuel cap", "name": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b353345e31ab14ecf735/E03444720_Budget_2025_Web_Accessible.pdf", "metric": "energy_bill_change", "unit_concept": "gbp_per_household", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "point_in_time", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Great Britain", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "RO", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "Great Britain", "measure_key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Renewables Obligation share of an electricity bill is not a parameter. The engine has electricity_consumption (LCFS-imputed, NEED-calibrated) and a flat energy_bills_credit lever (gov.treasury.energy_bills_rebate.energy_bills_credit), so the measure is a CONSTRUCTION: bill x domestic RO share (~41%, HMT) x 75%, or the ~GBP 150 average as a flat credit. Either is stated as constructed, never comparable.", "period_detail": "Q1 2026 dual fuel cap announced on 21 November 2025", "reform_hint": "Renewables Obligation: Fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation via the Exchequer over the Spending Review period", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households (reduction in costs)", "subgroup": "typical dual fuel household (Ofgem price cap typical domestic consumption values)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a367" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "electricity_consumption", "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9ca24eb4e469691a", "external_value": 67.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:bill_increase:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -67.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "116f6f41f625b453c789", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "estimated annual losses from labour fraud within the Construction Industry Scheme (2022 assessment)", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "outturn", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "estimated annual losses from labour fraud within the Construction Industry Scheme (2022 assessment)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Construction Industry Scheme: Strengthen HMRC powers to tackle fraud from 6 April 2026", "value_verbatim": "c\u00a30.5bn per year" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e8ea39389d2f7d27ae00", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "pension contributions using salary sacrifice arrangements (total, not only the above-cap portion)", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2024, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "outturn", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "pension contributions using salary sacrifice arrangements (total, not only the above-cap portion)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "value_verbatim": "\u00a332bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6405ee1c18d09a53", "external_value": 32000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 32000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d51c48daf5cee80ce825", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Gross Gambling Yield for the affected tax heads (total)", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Gross Gambling Yield for the affected tax heads (total)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a310 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 10000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "37659d5ede879d08d1bf", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Gross Gambling Yield, Bingo Duty", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Gross Gambling Yield, Bingo Duty", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a30.3 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 300000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 300000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ff48860466a51482ef4e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Gross Gambling Yield, Remote Gaming Duty", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Gross Gambling Yield, Remote Gaming Duty", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a37.1 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 7100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 7100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f2e2aab0e82e9d17f00b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Gross Gambling Yield, remote General Betting Duty", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Gross Gambling Yield, remote General Betting Duty", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a32.3 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 2300000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2300000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1514a14355bb2ab22e9b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "lease payments to Motability, excluding wheelchair accessible vehicles and certain adapted cars", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "lease payments to Motability, excluding wheelchair accessible vehicles and certain adapted cars", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a33.5 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 3500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 3500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2f45478ed4fcf01465c3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "total chargeable gains from disposals of company shares to EOTs", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "total chargeable gains from disposals of company shares to EOTs", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "value_verbatim": "approximately \u00a36.8 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 6800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 6800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3c364a53a17e97693cd6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "income in excess of the thresholds", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "income in excess of the thresholds", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a32 trillion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 2000000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2000000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "79497a71ab268972c5f8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "properties in England valued above \u00a32 million in 2026 subject to the tax (before behaviour)", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "properties", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregate": "tax_base", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "properties in England valued above \u00a32 million in 2026 subject to the tax (before behaviour)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "value_verbatim": "165,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": 165000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 165000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "358edf365cb7a3a676e5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "children lifted out of poverty", "name": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b353345e31ab14ecf735/E03444720_Budget_2025_Web_Accessible.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "two child limit removal alongside other measures announced this year, such as the expansion of free school meals", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "horizon": "unstated in the red book", "poverty_line": "unstated in the red book", "reform_hint": "Two child limit removal plus other 2025 measures (e.g. free school meals expansion)", "sign_convention": "as worded: 'lift ... out of poverty' (positive = reduction in the number of children in poverty)", "value_verbatim": "around 550,000" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e5fc9717d9867fcb", "external_value": 550000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -550000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c1df9fa17a16783a9cef", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "children lifted out of poverty", "name": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025 (HC 1492)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6929b353345e31ab14ecf735/E03444720_Budget_2025_Web_Accessible.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "horizon": "unstated in the red book (OBR EFO para 3.20 restates it as 'by 2029-30')", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "unstated in the red book", "reform_hint": "Removal of the two child limit on the Child Element in Universal Credit from April 2026", "sign_convention": "as worded: 'lift ... out of poverty' (positive = reduction in the number of children in poverty)", "value_verbatim": "450,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": 450000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -450000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "01e91af895a7f97e0368", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "08f60fb53387091c3075", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Tariff changes since Spring Statement 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0504f0fca3fd26bc", "external_value": -55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0ae04963a2451a3c15ba", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are not significant behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "reform_hint": "Non-reimbursed Homeworking Expenses: Remove the tax relief available from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0af8654e6def05f54e0f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief Supplement", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0c796602f7a38d3157ef", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "More timely payment for Self Assessment: Require ITSA taxpayers with Pay as You Earn (PAYE) income to pay more of their ITSA liabilities in-year via PAYE from April 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "100960def9e145234d7b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "High-value multiplier", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "100cc42b541a18bac40b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "RHL multipliers", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "107e259d7b0fdc04e395", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Lifelong Learning Entitlement, confirmation of policy detail for LLE launch on 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1121c6f07ff0b041967b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural change'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit Pensions: Provide inflation protection for pre-1997 pensions in the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and Financial Assistance Scheme (FAS) where members\u2019 former schemes provided it, from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "88c7abd7b0b1b071", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "125f0dfb965945d01034", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1bc6c3abee36fe905256", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The announcement-baseline leg (#13). Relative to current law the measure is a null change: gov.dwp.pip.* carries the unreformed award rates, and the Spring Statement 2025 four-point daily-living rule was never a parameter, so the world HMT scores against (the abandoned reform) cannot be executed. Scoring it needs the counterfactual world, not a lever.", "reform_hint": "Personal Independence Payment: Not proceeding with Spring Statement 2025 reforms to eligibility", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "program": "pip", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d95b6438a110c7", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1e29513e8fe52243d776", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transfer Pricing: Introduce a requirement for in- scope multinationals to file an International Controlled Transactions Schedule from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "20228973ad2f432f7aab", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Closure of post-departure trade profits loophole from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "24bff81e42918934d825", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "24c73d3b87eb4dafbd09", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transitional penalties arrangements under Making Tax Digital", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "25250f4d732b7d543019", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "reform_hint": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme: Exclude Private Hire Vehicle Services from the scope of the scheme from 2 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+190m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4392fede4e6eb91d", "external_value": 190000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 190000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2725463ccf364642efd6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2025; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "2025-26 is before the measure starts (6 April 2026): both worlds apply the limit, so PolicyEngine's effect is exactly zero, as is HM Treasury's.", "Measured (engine period 2025): Exchequer effect \u00a30.000bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a30.000bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2025; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "2025-26 is before the measure starts (6 April 2026): both worlds apply the limit, so PolicyEngine's effect is exactly zero, as is HM Treasury's.", "Measured (engine period 2025): Exchequer effect \u00a30.000bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a30.000bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "273ad9ec980418c1a464", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Digital prompts: Invest in new technology to provide taxpayers with real time digital prompts for VAT from April 2027 and Corporation Tax from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2744efdea845c1cad86e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Vaping Duty Stamps: Introduce a Vaping Duty Stamps scheme alongside Vaping Products Duty from 1 October 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2c5e31fc9b25293d3f0b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "311873fcffe08fccec40", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "reform_hint": "Youth Guarantee: Provide targeted support for young people to earn or learn, including a jobs guarantee, starting from 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact [AME savings only]", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "edc1a92f943039e4", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "32f8cb790256499be6aa", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "measure_scope": "England and Wales (presented UK-wide incl. Scottish BGA and NI Executive funding)", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to \u00a335,000 from Winter 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-1,785m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": -1785000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1785000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "34c02bf54b2bf09c08c5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax adviser non-compliance: Strengthen powers to tackle tax advisers who facilitate non- compliance from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "34f059bd88df4ca34f86", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Increase the Venture Capital Trust (VCT) scheme and the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) annual and lifetime investment limits and the gross assets test from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "18f7521a5bf90ddc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "353418134a895e883216", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3ac1025af425f41b13dc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-590m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": -590000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -590000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3b1cf6e80051c6032266", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Air Passenger Duty: Extend the scope of the higher rate to cover all private jets over 5.7 tonnes from 1 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "cc5b4ed255659628", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /air_passenger|apd|aviation|private_jet/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /air_passenger|apd|aviation|private_jet/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3d43a51d8fba82c0a3da", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Delay bringing Employee Car Ownership schemes within the Benefit in Kind rules from 6 April 2026 to 6 April 2030, with a two year transition period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "82d535fae699c3f1", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3dbde0ba158dcc5c3d09", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax Avoidance: Tighten the company share exchange and reconstruction rules to more effectively target Capital Gains Tax and Corporation Tax avoidance from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "411bc2f4643406268f89", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Image Rights payments: Clarify image rights payments by an employer to an employee are taxable as employment income from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "45fc6e3e058c786c8907", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "Inheritance Tax: Maintain the nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band, and allowance for 100% rate of agricultural property relief and business property relief for a further year, from April 2030 until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4668829c09723ebedfb9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "reform_hint": "UK Listing Relief: Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief for transfers of a company's securities for a three- year period from the point of listing, effective from 27 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "program": "stamp_taxes", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "71b435fe1c807a4b", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "494d1a1c7165aa84456b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "reform_hint": "Soil and Land Remediation: DEFRA grant scheme to support Local Authority remediation of land", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "973585bb7dde813c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4dcdf07379dd893e144f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'includes no adjustments for behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a Supporting Small Business scheme from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4ecb49b3f817f1e32b74", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at \u00a35000 from April 2026 to April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4bfac4d85ab5b3a1", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "58668e900abe8341b633", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Post Office Capture Redress Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5b1bfd53a33f251ed755", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "reform_hint": "Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief: Allow any unused allowance for the 100% rate of relief to be transferable between spouses and civil partners from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "dbfd369c9f255acc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5e855467818f42106677", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Economic Crime (Anti Money Laundering) Levy Rate Increase", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fc184c3ea908ac", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "602e3e44f885ca81ddd1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Extend Targeted Case Review of Universal Credit to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2797a7f49790137f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6194cb60f1096fbc811c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not include any adjustment for a behavioural response'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "reform_hint": "Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Expansion of the UK ETS to International Maritime Routes from 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d72328abeb0ba34d", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "61a3527188ee31ef6f12", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Increase to late payment penalty rate", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6375b1129e6a654d926f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27; extend the 5p cut in rates to 31 August 2026, then increase by 1p from 1 September 2026, 2p from 1 December 2026, and 2p from 1 March 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "program": "fuel_duty", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "fuel_duty" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c3e1cfcd25a0df2e", "external_value": -45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "68e3fd83aaeecaff86c6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6a41636a4eaae64c9dce", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Property Income: Introduce separate tax rates for property income at 22% for the property basic rate, 42% for the property higher rate and 47% for the property additional rate, from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2813c0b5ccaaec98", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6c6a8bb48b73b38ab75a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "reform_hint": "Advanced Corporation Tax (ACT) reform: Abolish shadow ACT restrictions to relax the limits on companies\u2019 use of surplus ACT balances from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8af60005543f8016", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6ed2dace875f632af541", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Carer\u2019s Allowance Review: Reassess overpayments from 2015 to 2025 caused by incorrect operational guidance", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "program": "carers_allowance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "638cdb76b2bab859", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6ee8f98953289b39fa5c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not make a behavioural adjustment'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Renewables Obligation share of an electricity bill is not a parameter. The engine has electricity_consumption (LCFS-imputed, NEED-calibrated) and a flat energy_bills_credit lever (gov.treasury.energy_bills_rebate.energy_bills_credit), so the measure is a CONSTRUCTION: bill x domestic RO share (~41%, HMT) x 75%, or the ~GBP 150 average as a flat credit. Either is stated as constructed, never comparable.", "reform_hint": "Renewables Obligation: Fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation via the Exchequer over the Spending Review period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "electricity_consumption", "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9ca24eb4e469691a", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "701e3e833e33e8bc8449", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Increase spending on student loans due to a new means-tested maintenance grant offer for students from academic year 2028/29", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "70ab947b1a7e5a30c6b7", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "reform_hint": "Health and Disability Benefits: Improve operations by increasing face-to-face assessments, increasing WCA reassessment capability, and PIP award review changes, starting from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "494e2ee24c82ed8e", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "740b37f93c0bf038a216", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Dividend Income: Increase tax rates on dividend income by 2ppts at the ordinary and upper rate from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5e58b8743cde2414", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "783d36d1fb153e7903c6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7f71f4e223ca8db483a9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Student Loans: Freeze Plan 2 repayment threshold for three years from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8d27ddf9d209faea0bb1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Cross-border VAT grouping: Revert to unconditional whole entity cross-border VAT grouping from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d065b97a330cb396", "external_value": -40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "930e67628a11b179b513", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Small business rates relief and rural rate relief interaction", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "95f41d91b8dde4db5171", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "reform_hint": "Soft Drink Industry Levy: Reduce the levy threshold from 5g to 4.5g/100ml and extend to milk-based drinks and milk substitutes from 1 January 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8c553b05740aca02", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "962a7a1c1576d98c9cbe", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "reform_hint": "VAT: Introduce a relief for business donations of goods to charity for onward distribution or use in the delivery of their services, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "faa75a07ff8b16bc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9665eb5e94bd71c7893f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Reduce the VCT scheme Income Tax relief from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1c9d3f34416e9ab6", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+590m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 590000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 590000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aaac24f2d4f762717744", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Benefit-in-Kind tax easement for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) company cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "aebcce369c83c1cbacb0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "reform_hint": "Enterprise Management Incentives (EMI): Increase eligibility to allow scale-ups, as well as start-ups, to access the scheme from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2397e24e3dbcd42f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b23915497770e1fb14db", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b74ca8d2b2f8769e835f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Writing-down Allowances: Reduce the main rate writing-down allowance to 14% from April 2026 and introduce a new 40% first-year allowance from 1 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+35m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "76fff2379042f836", "external_value": 35000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 35000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bba1a1a35d0bd4864a49", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Increase the Expensive Car Supplement threshold for zero emission vehicles to \u00a350,000, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "53efc873518a2d23", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bc1f28f4ea1d12ec3d0a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit and Pension Credit Administration: Bring together the administration of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ce483a4cf52b1bf2", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bc6639ed7ea386f9482a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Late Filing Penalties: Double late filing penalties for Corporation Tax from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bcc65d3654cd933436f9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit: Reduce the financial cliff edge for claimants in supported housing and temporary accommodation from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "program": "housing_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d4047f13cf03b341", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bffff93c63390e6eb937", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Scottish Government Police and Fire Pensions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-350m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e053d8b5ab4e74ac", "external_value": -350000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c00638bb2a4e5a0a1897", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates Retention: Extend Greater London Authority enhanced business rates retention arrangements, and pilot Business Rate Retentions for West England Combined Authority, Cornwall, and Liverpool City Region, for three years from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2fa899a332f7964f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c5c18f8a0f4d4a05095a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme: Transfer investment reserve to scheme members", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-1,975m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3936e8a0414d94d1", "external_value": -1975000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1975000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cbdcff902cb5f978d710", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cc3e71b46ed544f4f6e9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d1eade174f6172fcb42c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d232d78956f565828145", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Extend the \u00a32,500 surplus earnings threshold for one year from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29bbf81f8bde7c6f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d801448c7e1d36a5adfd", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Rewards for informants of high value tax fraud: New Rewards for Informants scheme for high value tax fraud from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d9b939e21c75a87d5299", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "reform_hint": "Supporting Savers: Make the Help to Save scheme permanent, maintain total ISA annual subscription limit at \u00a320,000 with cash limit reduced to \u00a312,000 for under-65s from April 2027, delay ISA digitalisation until April 2028 and maintain the ISA subscription limits until 2030/31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "program": "savings", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8a3c5181e02b1b9b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dad5486eee80f7903530", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "db73378db957a8dde90f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Construction Industry Scheme: Strengthen HMRC powers to tackle fraud from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dcbfb9b90b14a21b1a60", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2025; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "2025-26 is before the measure starts (6 April 2026): both worlds apply the limit, so PolicyEngine's effect is exactly zero, as is HM Treasury's.", "Measured (engine period 2025): Exchequer effect \u00a30.000bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a30.000bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2025; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "2025-26 is before the measure starts (6 April 2026): both worlds apply the limit, so PolicyEngine's effect is exactly zero, as is HM Treasury's.", "Measured (engine period 2025): Exchequer effect \u00a30.000bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a30.000bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "dd48f42b7001932225e7", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No additional behavioural effects are anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Introducing Penalty Reform for NMSA", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ded586ea16c9ffa85037", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Low Value Imports: Reform the customs treatment of low value imports from March 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db25b0d137ee6bf8", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e1a970d467a9aedf08f0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Child Benefit: Exempt 16\u201319-year-olds with an illness or disability from the 12-hour weekly rule and equalise the treatment of non-standard educational settings from 1 September 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "84a96307fe87e163", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e1d0b89af9ecb1d5a4f1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Maintain the secondary threshold for employer contributions at current level for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9a6d1ace6f3b5b3a", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e333aae1e79088e8d4a1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e3c5cc3a2f85c1e5781a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-60m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": -60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e5cd8e0924934c42a39b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Loan Charge: Government response to the independent review", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5438b645ba9cd38", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e736597020680c3d8bcc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6405ee1c18d09a53", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e8d8001d90f3043e4388", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Remove access to Class 2 National Insurance contributions (NICs) and increase the initial residency and contributions history requirements for Class 3 NICs for individuals abroad from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "60e7246c2f8564b1", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e9d27002e2a4d32dcbaa", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "measure_scope": "England and Northern Ireland", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Landfill Tax: Increase the lower rate by the cash increase of the standard rate from 1 April 2026 and in each year of the forecast period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "aac32edbf6d15db8", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "eb902913447a845b0a23", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ed95d23a21573c4f3e81", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increasing the Immigration Skills Charge (ISC)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+45m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "70f727320ed78ce3", "external_value": 45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "edea1003aca8a620a3d7", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f1c3ec2e132c828c800b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "reform_hint": "Sizewell C: Reclassify construction costs and recognise income generated through the Regulated Asset Base levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "05df94b4fe468f2e", "external_value": 50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f2df63b987d284f463eb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) emissions regulatory standard changes", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f3e51d5cfb82d15f2a8d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a445f2d6200a2fde", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f64fd24dc9d1390cc61f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f822b8ea1d293eb14f64", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Deliver recommendations from Volume 1 of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry's final report", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ff0b1e96eef30db194cc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Making better use of third-party data: Invest to acquire third-party data more frequently for interest and card sales from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ffb9ab110ef0847ae951", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit (DB) Pension Scheme Surplus Extraction: Introduce flexibilities for employers and direct payments to members from April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "015669a22141273f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "00a9c02f4a275abf8856", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "International Student Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "211584fb4d098c6a", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "01c1739bad2422c73c1a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increasing the Immigration Skills Charge (ISC)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+180m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "70f727320ed78ce3", "external_value": 180000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 180000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "03fcd7546d8652e48e18", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Cap trust charges at \u00a35m for pre-30 October 2024 excluded property trusts for charges applying from 6 April 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "044fcab69317b745a6b4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not include any adjustment for a behavioural response'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "reform_hint": "Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Expansion of the UK ETS to International Maritime Routes from 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d72328abeb0ba34d", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "049d7345af6095826e58", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1320m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1320000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1320000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0809fab050ca5d2fa8c9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "High-value multiplier", "value_verbatim": "+805m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 805000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 805000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0a7a5259481e4210b3fb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+185m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 185000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 185000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0a801adfc870019d5cb2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Increase the Venture Capital Trust (VCT) scheme and the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) annual and lifetime investment limits and the gross assets test from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "18f7521a5bf90ddc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0e2e7445f0397fc29042", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Maintain the secondary threshold for employer contributions at current level for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9a6d1ace6f3b5b3a", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:57:47.607249+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:57:47.607249+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0ff7254bc6fdf0f61d9c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "reform_hint": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme: Exclude Private Hire Vehicle Services from the scope of the scheme from 2 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+725m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4392fede4e6eb91d", "external_value": 725000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 725000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "10dc92e1c6397c25e748", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "Inheritance Tax: Maintain the nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band, and allowance for 100% rate of agricultural property relief and business property relief for a further year, from April 2030 until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "11cfe7dacc6bfb400a63", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "reform_hint": "Sizewell C: Reclassify construction costs and recognise income generated through the Regulated Asset Base levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+510m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "05df94b4fe468f2e", "external_value": 510000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 510000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1349c376ba4823de1bb0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-245m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a445f2d6200a2fde", "external_value": -245000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -245000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "15393285e21d21a7b5b5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,055m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -2055000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2055000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -2308547892.8115234, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2026): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.309bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.317bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1233809697379675, "delta": -253547892.81152344 }, "results": [ { "value": -1102711078.5245361, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:32.265405+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -2308547892.8115234, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2026): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.309bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.317bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1c1c7f98ccf0bec675e6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:17.919001+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:17.919001+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1f121b045f26c5bd6ab3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Delay bringing Employee Car Ownership schemes within the Benefit in Kind rules from 6 April 2026 to 6 April 2030, with a two year transition period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-150m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "82d535fae699c3f1", "external_value": -150000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "207514d392b17e39c02c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Cross-border VAT grouping: Revert to unconditional whole entity cross-border VAT grouping from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d065b97a330cb396", "external_value": -45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2178ffed26a2fc2c260a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "reform_hint": "Soil and Land Remediation: DEFRA grant scheme to support Local Authority remediation of land", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "973585bb7dde813c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2571ef32cbcafd8ffbd5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27; extend the 5p cut in rates to 31 August 2026, then increase by 1p from 1 September 2026, 2p from 1 December 2026, and 2p from 1 March 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,370m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "program": "fuel_duty", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "fuel_duty" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c3e1cfcd25a0df2e", "external_value": -2370000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2370000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1147160282.2736816, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:12:45.087163+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.48403387437708084, "delta": 1222839717.7263184 }, "results": [ { "value": -1147160282.2736816, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:12:45.087163+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "26522f45804b4f05260c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Closure of post-departure trade profits loophole from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "26c1614aa0754666bbf6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit and Pension Credit Administration: Bring together the administration of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ce483a4cf52b1bf2", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "27a9c6e44eaab0dd8960", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No additional behavioural effects are anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Introducing Penalty Reform for NMSA", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2ead5a81c6ed82612a96", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Non-derecognition liabilities: Introduce anti- avoidance rule to tackle certain arrangements involving non-derecognition liabilities from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "328831b29027ed92e9df", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-600m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": -600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "39839c08baeb1aa13b45", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Post Office Capture Redress Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "39cec7c23a1552a2f674", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Increase the Expensive Car Supplement threshold for zero emission vehicles to \u00a350,000, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "53efc873518a2d23", "external_value": -50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3b2de2f12d8272d56e9a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Writing-down Allowances: Reduce the main rate writing-down allowance to 14% from April 2026 and introduce a new 40% first-year allowance from 1 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,035m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "76fff2379042f836", "external_value": 1035000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1035000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4177dfc9fdf3fabb4919", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Increase spending on student loans due to a new means-tested maintenance grant offer for students from academic year 2028/29", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "41a99da0a68f88f84685", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Extend Targeted Case Review of Universal Credit to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2797a7f49790137f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "470c7ca73ddc126e2441", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increase to the Money and Pensions Service (MaPS) Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bf9c655d5a7c94c3", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "48001fcd799d0983c7d0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+90m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 90000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 90000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "481fa71686dcf90b827a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit (DB) Pension Scheme Surplus Extraction: Introduce flexibilities for employers and direct payments to members from April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+30m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "015669a22141273f", "external_value": 30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 30000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "482d98b47bf6918f30e8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+225m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 225000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 225000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "485460ed617f2d4ef853", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "reform_hint": "Health and Disability Benefits: Improve operations by increasing face-to-face assessments, increasing WCA reassessment capability, and PIP award review changes, starting from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+85m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "494e2ee24c82ed8e", "external_value": 85000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 85000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "48d072820a8af1034e7a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+810m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 810000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 810000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4bcba25157b9c8200286", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "reform_hint": "Youth Guarantee: Provide targeted support for young people to earn or learn, including a jobs guarantee, starting from 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact [AME savings only]", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "edc1a92f943039e4", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4d4af236342ce2a11679", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,365m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -2365000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2365000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -2308547892.8115234, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2026): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.309bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.317bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 0.9761301872353164, "delta": 56452107.18847656 }, "results": [ { "value": -1102711078.5245361, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:32.265405+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -2308547892.8115234, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2026; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2026): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.309bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.317bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "507061eb261487e96d4e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transfer Pricing: Introduce a requirement for in- scope multinationals to file an International Controlled Transactions Schedule from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "55642b3183f950de8c81", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief Supplement", "value_verbatim": "+785m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 785000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 785000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "573da1770cb8a3d11e73", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Extend 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars and electric vehicle charge points to 31 March 2027 for Corporation Tax and 5 April 2027 for Income Tax", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-145m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "355f19cf7dfccd5a", "external_value": -145000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -145000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "57fee27fbe06efe2d7be", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "584d192411065f5a7933", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "59582830439f1c1a2e00", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Student Loans: Freeze Plan 2 repayment threshold for three years from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5,915m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "student_loan_repayment" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.student_loans.thresholds.plan_2" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "09524ad9e271897a", "external_value": 5915000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5915000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5b4e97b7c9c95d215ff4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Dividend Income: Increase tax rates on dividend income by 2ppts at the ordinary and upper rate from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+280m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5e58b8743cde2414", "external_value": 280000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 280000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 869685770.220581, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:02:59.921510+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 3.1060206079306467, "delta": 589685770.220581 }, "results": [ { "value": 869685770.220581, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:02:59.921510+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5cac30a451594c63449b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "reform_hint": "Enterprise Management Incentives (EMI): Increase eligibility to allow scale-ups, as well as start-ups, to access the scheme from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-70m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2397e24e3dbcd42f", "external_value": -70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5f6380adadcdb17645fe", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+600m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "619b07773f3e5609edf1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Loan Charge: Government response to the independent review", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-95m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5438b645ba9cd38", "external_value": -95000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -95000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "66fe0bbe13bddb5d0b28", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "67bb77eede0b1a9c5116", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Tariff changes since Spring Statement 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-150m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0504f0fca3fd26bc", "external_value": -150000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6a4bbf357a30bc704d48", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'includes no adjustments for behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a Supporting Small Business scheme from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-1,180m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -1180000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1180000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "761ea0bb7987daf7c6f6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Late Filing Penalties: Double late filing penalties for Corporation Tax from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "79d5d98c9e8ec7d6801e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Making better use of third-party data: Invest to acquire third-party data more frequently for interest and card sales from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "79f97832749ca6f6492f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:17.919001+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); 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negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-1,255m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "88c7abd7b0b1b071", "external_value": -1255000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1255000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "823c49ef1c006d8ebb97", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "reform_hint": "Soft Drink Industry Levy: Reduce the levy threshold from 5g to 4.5g/100ml and extend to milk-based drinks and milk substitutes from 1 January 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8c553b05740aca02", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "849e59efdf9b96334e7d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "More timely payment for Self Assessment: Require ITSA taxpayers with Pay as You Earn (PAYE) income to pay more of their ITSA liabilities in-year via PAYE from April 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8512917ca6dacbca1d87", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Scottish Government Police and Fire Pensions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-350m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e053d8b5ab4e74ac", "external_value": -350000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "85a36c8acfadfaaa1834", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are not significant behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "reform_hint": "Non-reimbursed Homeworking Expenses: Remove the tax relief available from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "88f711f0f798ccdae299", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) emissions regulatory standard changes", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8b6ced826fa0a8fafa80", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax Avoidance: Tighten the company share exchange and reconstruction rules to more effectively target Capital Gains Tax and Corporation Tax avoidance from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9134456cc0602efd2dc2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Carer\u2019s Allowance Review: Reassess overpayments from 2015 to 2025 caused by incorrect operational guidance", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "program": "carers_allowance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "638cdb76b2bab859", "external_value": -20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9558216f4b28b43fc3f0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Small business rates relief and rural rate relief interaction", "value_verbatim": "+110m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "96e088552afe434f7ac2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transitional penalties arrangements under Making Tax Digital", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "970aa5fb3b80240fd69d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Digital prompts: Invest in new technology to provide taxpayers with real time digital prompts for VAT from April 2027 and Corporation Tax from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "99c2f251ce2daf7fb61c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9a11e380a618e8963afd", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|accuracy|review/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9c49c63d06ae270d5592", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "reform_hint": "Advanced Corporation Tax (ACT) reform: Abolish shadow ACT restrictions to relax the limits on companies\u2019 use of surplus ACT balances from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8af60005543f8016", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9c8e02d27c4f6dc987c6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Extend the \u00a32,500 surplus earnings threshold for one year from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-145m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29bbf81f8bde7c6f", "external_value": -145000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -145000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9e42170b1fb98c09d2e5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+110m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a0e94f701a9f59070ea0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "RHL multipliers", "value_verbatim": "-965m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": -965000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -965000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a53088de8a7069c1b4ca", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Lifelong Learning Entitlement, confirmation of policy detail for LLE launch on 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a6f2384f1d59313d6aa1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Benefit-in-Kind tax easement for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) company cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "aa90b181ea9cffc0dcb8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The announcement-baseline leg (#13). Relative to current law the measure is a null change: gov.dwp.pip.* carries the unreformed award rates, and the Spring Statement 2025 four-point daily-living rule was never a parameter, so the world HMT scores against (the abandoned reform) cannot be executed. Scoring it needs the counterfactual world, not a lever.", "reform_hint": "Personal Independence Payment: Not proceeding with Spring Statement 2025 reforms to eligibility", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-235m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "program": "pip", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d95b6438a110c7", "external_value": -235000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -235000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ac683d8f188f6dcd6229", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Remove access to Class 2 National Insurance contributions (NICs) and increase the initial residency and contributions history requirements for Class 3 NICs for individuals abroad from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "60e7246c2f8564b1", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b0d54bddfee876daece2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:30.695473+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:30.695473+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b20614ccb7bdb2b74eab", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax adviser non-compliance: Strengthen powers to tackle tax advisers who facilitate non- compliance from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b39e64a6558f470c2d63", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Low Value Imports: Reform the customs treatment of low value imports from March 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db25b0d137ee6bf8", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b5a22a7e30dbd03623a2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit: Reduce the financial cliff edge for claimants in supported housing and temporary accommodation from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "program": "housing_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d4047f13cf03b341", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b80f6fa54f3e81918e6e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "reform_hint": "Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief: Allow any unused allowance for the 100% rate of relief to be transferable between spouses and civil partners from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-30m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "dbfd369c9f255acc", "external_value": -30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -30000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bb096d95fcffe956edc5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bb837ebdf17bd219b7fa", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "reform_hint": "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Remove indirect emissions from scope of the CBAM from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1b2006d2932b127f", "external_value": -40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "be6223472fa13f034534", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Child Benefit: Exempt 16\u201319-year-olds with an illness or disability from the 12-hour weekly rule and equalise the treatment of non-standard educational settings from 1 September 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "84a96307fe87e163", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c6d3f5cb48ed964878c0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects expected'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax debt collection: Invest in HMRC's debt management staff to increase collection of overdue tax debts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cb54369af2d332c8be18", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6405ee1c18d09a53", "external_value": -40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:37.570545+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 40000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d2c761388a97433451b4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Rewards for informants of high value tax fraud: New Rewards for Informants scheme for high value tax fraud from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d2dd6394c11096759820", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-120m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": -120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:30.695473+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 120000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:30.695473+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d526d022daebe37db638", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Construction Industry Scheme: Strengthen HMRC powers to tackle fraud from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+205m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 205000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 205000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d70f694db6ed78532808", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "reform_hint": "VAT: Introduce a relief for business donations of goods to charity for onward distribution or use in the delivery of their services, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "faa75a07ff8b16bc", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d877db2352fae442685e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "reform_hint": "UK Listing Relief: Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief for transfers of a company's securities for a three- year period from the point of listing, effective from 27 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-35m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "program": "stamp_taxes", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "71b435fe1c807a4b", "external_value": -35000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -35000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d9dba4f0867ca8c26fd9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Property Income: Introduce separate tax rates for property income at 22% for the property basic rate, 42% for the property higher rate and 47% for the property additional rate, from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2813c0b5ccaaec98", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:16.247077+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2027-28 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:16.247077+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2027-28 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "db62b1a87b6e4d946973", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "reform_hint": "Supporting Savers: Make the Help to Save scheme permanent, maintain total ISA annual subscription limit at \u00a320,000 with cash limit reduced to \u00a312,000 for under-65s from April 2027, delay ISA digitalisation until April 2028 and maintain the ISA subscription limits until 2030/31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "program": "savings", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8a3c5181e02b1b9b", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e1b6a80c647af86915bd", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Image Rights payments: Clarify image rights payments by an employer to an employee are taxable as employment income from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e23d12a5469bc8b6d019", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6405ee1c18d09a53", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:37.570545+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:37.570545+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e37778289c6e8bfc0e75", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e5139579893cd2b3e0cf", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Reduce the VCT scheme Income Tax relief from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1c9d3f34416e9ab6", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e6efd01c73c0ea8f62be", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief", "value_verbatim": "-1,745m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -1745000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1745000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e7c5660d87c429fa8d73", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Economic Crime (Anti Money Laundering) Levy Rate Increase", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fc184c3ea908ac", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e7ece98add59e05f69a1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates Retention: Extend Greater London Authority enhanced business rates retention arrangements, and pilot Business Rate Retentions for West England Combined Authority, Cornwall, and Liverpool City Region, for three years from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2fa899a332f7964f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e85ccf2819c687bc08d1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not make a behavioural adjustment'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Renewables Obligation share of an electricity bill is not a parameter. The engine has electricity_consumption (LCFS-imputed, NEED-calibrated) and a flat energy_bills_credit lever (gov.treasury.energy_bills_rebate.energy_bills_credit), so the measure is a CONSTRUCTION: bill x domestic RO share (~41%, HMT) x 75%, or the ~GBP 150 average as a flat credit. Either is stated as constructed, never comparable.", "reform_hint": "Renewables Obligation: Fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation via the Exchequer over the Spending Review period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,580m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "electricity_consumption", "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9ca24eb4e469691a", "external_value": -2580000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2580000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ea4021631773a75a9a88", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Increase to late payment penalty rate", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fde45c34018f7a3a259e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "measure_scope": "England and Northern Ireland", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Landfill Tax: Increase the lower rate by the cash increase of the standard rate from 1 April 2026 and in each year of the forecast period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+35m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "aac32edbf6d15db8", "external_value": 35000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 35000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ffcef8d67cd6b4f922ee", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "measure_scope": "England and Wales (presented UK-wide incl. Scottish BGA and NI Executive funding)", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to \u00a335,000 from Winter 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-1,390m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": -1390000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1390000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1374884371.923767, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:24:02.482333+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9891254474271706, "delta": 15115628.07623291 }, "results": [ { "value": -1374884371.923767, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:24:02.482333+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "00887d5246feae037324", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "reform_hint": "Health and Disability Benefits: Improve operations by increasing face-to-face assessments, increasing WCA reassessment capability, and PIP award review changes, starting from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+310m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "494e2ee24c82ed8e", "external_value": 310000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 310000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "02dcbc2f8221ae7b7e28", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Vaping Duty Stamps: Introduce a Vaping Duty Stamps scheme alongside Vaping Products Duty from 1 October 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "05b683634c5c35b77704", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "06673543085a91a8a957", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'includes no adjustments for behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a Supporting Small Business scheme from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-500m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0cf1584e8564e04ed942", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Increase to late payment penalty rate", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0dbc55bc9e5b357e3e76", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax adviser non-compliance: Strengthen powers to tackle tax advisers who facilitate non- compliance from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0e58ec88e380ac43445f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Increase spending on student loans due to a new means-tested maintenance grant offer for students from academic year 2028/29", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1392c82c41f658abfabb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not make a behavioural adjustment'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Renewables Obligation share of an electricity bill is not a parameter. The engine has electricity_consumption (LCFS-imputed, NEED-calibrated) and a flat energy_bills_credit lever (gov.treasury.energy_bills_rebate.energy_bills_credit), so the measure is a CONSTRUCTION: bill x domestic RO share (~41%, HMT) x 75%, or the ~GBP 150 average as a flat credit. Either is stated as constructed, never comparable.", "reform_hint": "Renewables Obligation: Fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation via the Exchequer over the Spending Review period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "electricity_consumption", "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9ca24eb4e469691a", "external_value": -2100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1619fa2c8b6710c0de25", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not include any adjustment for a behavioural response'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "reform_hint": "Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Expansion of the UK ETS to International Maritime Routes from 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d72328abeb0ba34d", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1a2787271b8d47b935ca", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Non-derecognition liabilities: Introduce anti- avoidance rule to tackle certain arrangements involving non-derecognition liabilities from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+75m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 75000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 75000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1a4b88215bb354c9c04b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Increase the Venture Capital Trust (VCT) scheme and the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) annual and lifetime investment limits and the gross assets test from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-60m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "18f7521a5bf90ddc", "external_value": -60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1e0c1bc41107929025bc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "reform_hint": "VAT: Introduce a relief for business donations of goods to charity for onward distribution or use in the delivery of their services, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "faa75a07ff8b16bc", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1e6e319f2f2d3d23a57e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+165m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 165000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 165000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "20092ac7150fa38ccbd0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+615m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 615000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 615000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "270934418b2b06a873ea", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-615m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": -615000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -615000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "277082155f80d879cac7", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Dividend Income: Increase tax rates on dividend income by 2ppts at the ordinary and upper rate from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+985m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5e58b8743cde2414", "external_value": 985000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 985000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 898954399.7271729, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:06.766584+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9126440606367237, "delta": -86045600.27282715 }, "results": [ { "value": 898954399.7271729, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:06.766584+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2b5a9461fa80d6acecb5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,250m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -2250000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2250000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -2501757079.452759, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2027): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.502bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.510bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1118920353123372, "delta": -251757079.4527588 }, "results": [ { "value": -1180490146.0510254, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:40.257971+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -2501757079.452759, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2027): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.502bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.510bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2bcd23567f5f97d18371", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "reform_hint": "Soft Drink Industry Levy: Reduce the levy threshold from 5g to 4.5g/100ml and extend to milk-based drinks and milk substitutes from 1 January 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8c553b05740aca02", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2c1f8427aaadce4ccdb2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Child Benefit: Exempt 16\u201319-year-olds with an illness or disability from the 12-hour weekly rule and equalise the treatment of non-standard educational settings from 1 September 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "84a96307fe87e163", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2c33a29a114627855c09", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "reform_hint": "Sizewell C: Reclassify construction costs and recognise income generated through the Regulated Asset Base levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+580m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "05df94b4fe468f2e", "external_value": 580000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 580000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2c4160483d17d9748619", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Maintain the secondary threshold for employer contributions at current level for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9a6d1ace6f3b5b3a", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:57:54.123054+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 5000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:57:54.123054+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2f91443d455e306ec79c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Extend Targeted Case Review of Universal Credit to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2797a7f49790137f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "30a0950ae00c3786e41f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "reform_hint": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme: Exclude Private Hire Vehicle Services from the scope of the scheme from 2 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+665m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4392fede4e6eb91d", "external_value": 665000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 665000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3383ad3d0efddf0b3331", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Rewards for informants of high value tax fraud: New Rewards for Informants scheme for high value tax fraud from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "33c58943eea6e2d156c0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Low Value Imports: Reform the customs treatment of low value imports from March 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db25b0d137ee6bf8", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "35badc58091e96b2dd17", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "reform_hint": "Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief: Allow any unused allowance for the 100% rate of relief to be transferable between spouses and civil partners from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-70m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "dbfd369c9f255acc", "external_value": -70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3705c594c05106636b45", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Improve accuracy in Pension Credit claims from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+85m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0f7a59fa2f71ff08", "external_value": 85000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 85000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|accuracy|review/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|accuracy|review/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "38197d89a2c79017db66", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Benefit-in-Kind tax easement for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) company cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-35m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": -35000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -35000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3a4a4848e4290ea14b0a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Increase the Expensive Car Supplement threshold for zero emission vehicles to \u00a350,000, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-110m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "53efc873518a2d23", "external_value": -110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3d21e0b67d8f704d8d08", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:26.562649+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 25000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:26.562649+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4037cc6d145575b7e96e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "More timely payment for Self Assessment: Require ITSA taxpayers with Pay as You Earn (PAYE) income to pay more of their ITSA liabilities in-year via PAYE from April 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "41c12d040e16159b47eb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Scottish Government Police and Fire Pensions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-350m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e053d8b5ab4e74ac", "external_value": -350000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "43218c3b954b5235e2fe", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "reform_hint": "Enterprise Management Incentives (EMI): Increase eligibility to allow scale-ups, as well as start-ups, to access the scheme from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-230m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2397e24e3dbcd42f", "external_value": -230000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -230000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4d5c75f445e84cfbd16c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4ee4d92970fe9540389b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Image Rights payments: Clarify image rights payments by an employer to an employee are taxable as employment income from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5097e2692642cecee59c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Closure of post-departure trade profits loophole from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+120m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": 120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "540ae21a34974d712f0f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Small business rates relief and rural rate relief interaction", "value_verbatim": "+105m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 105000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 105000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "57ecaedc388caaa9b10f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "International Student Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "211584fb4d098c6a", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "587ce2729bc3e08b2e6b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "Inheritance Tax: Maintain the nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band, and allowance for 100% rate of agricultural property relief and business property relief for a further year, from April 2030 until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "598a21f8f919f891750d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Extend 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars and electric vehicle charge points to 31 March 2027 for Corporation Tax and 5 April 2027 for Income Tax", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "355f19cf7dfccd5a", "external_value": -100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5d1d3fb452aee0dbc60d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Post Office Capture Redress Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5e03df3094c04490891e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "measure_scope": "England and Northern Ireland", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Landfill Tax: Increase the lower rate by the cash increase of the standard rate from 1 April 2026 and in each year of the forecast period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+60m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "aac32edbf6d15db8", "external_value": 60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "60144c1fc8265da6271b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit and Pension Credit Administration: Bring together the administration of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ce483a4cf52b1bf2", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "61363e48a06b1a52117a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Property Income: Introduce separate tax rates for property income at 22% for the property basic rate, 42% for the property higher rate and 47% for the property additional rate, from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2813c0b5ccaaec98", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 482970061.984375, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:22.900670+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 96.594012396875, "delta": 477970061.984375 }, "results": [ { "value": 482970061.984375, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:22.900670+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "61cec2a5f8e77eca1fa3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The announcement-baseline leg (#13). Relative to current law the measure is a null change: gov.dwp.pip.* carries the unreformed award rates, and the Spring Statement 2025 four-point daily-living rule was never a parameter, so the world HMT scores against (the abandoned reform) cannot be executed. Scoring it needs the counterfactual world, not a lever.", "reform_hint": "Personal Independence Payment: Not proceeding with Spring Statement 2025 reforms to eligibility", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-1,755m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "program": "pip", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d95b6438a110c7", "external_value": -1755000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1755000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "62c379d1be8e2ce01940", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1640m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1640000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1640000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "65672db1936dee55c2ea", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Construction Industry Scheme: Strengthen HMRC powers to tackle fraud from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+165m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 165000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 165000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6610fb4de541b03e6d88", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Lifelong Learning Entitlement, confirmation of policy detail for LLE launch on 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "68dc707c7618bd920b6c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transfer Pricing: Introduce a requirement for in- scope multinationals to file an International Controlled Transactions Schedule from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+105m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 105000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 105000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "692bda1db11c4e2f765b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,065m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1065000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1065000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "69cff83ec19209d74330", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Incorporation Relief: Require taxpayers to actively claim incorporation relief to improve compliance from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6ce06e6d8be40fc02c3d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6eb59c718beba11ab101", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "High-value multiplier", "value_verbatim": "+795m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 795000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 795000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "70be5f0fdb4188625d19", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transitional penalties arrangements under Making Tax Digital", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": -45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "73d93e5ee9d7efbf41ea", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:38.688067+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:38.688067+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "750a3cfc5c85c542e428", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; 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no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7a128c1c93d962d9fd88", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at \u00a35000 from April 2026 to April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4bfac4d85ab5b3a1", "external_value": 55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1053950722.9139404, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:04:45.242714+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 19.162740416617098, "delta": 998950722.9139404 }, "results": [ { "value": 1053950722.9139404, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:04:45.242714+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7ad0b82b45cc0e563746", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; 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the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "822312a32dd9aa439583", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,590m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -2590000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2590000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -2501757079.452759, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2027): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.502bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.510bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 0.9659293743060845, "delta": 88242920.54724121 }, "results": [ { "value": -1180490146.0510254, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:40.257971+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -2501757079.452759, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2027; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2027): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.502bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.510bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8937b95a625cf25f1c9b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-155m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": -155000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -155000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:38.688067+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 155000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:38.688067+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "90a1822064d978c20101", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural change'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit Pensions: Provide inflation protection for pre-1997 pensions in the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and Financial Assistance Scheme (FAS) where members\u2019 former schemes provided it, from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-60m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "88c7abd7b0b1b071", "external_value": -60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "97fa9023a2777411c466", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief Supplement", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "99ea5970f800ce1dfeee", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "reform_hint": "UK Listing Relief: Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief for transfers of a company's securities for a three- year period from the point of listing, effective from 27 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "program": "stamp_taxes", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "71b435fe1c807a4b", "external_value": -45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9e203f00e3bb4b407192", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Student Loans: Freeze Plan 2 repayment threshold for three years from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+255m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "student_loan_repayment" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.student_loans.thresholds.plan_2" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "09524ad9e271897a", "external_value": 255000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 255000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 156414444.15554428, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T12:27:26.954763+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect read from the head variable(s) student_loan_repayment (receipt), which gov_tax / gov_spending do not carry on the certified engine", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6133899770805659, "delta": -98585555.84445572 }, "results": [ { "value": 156414444.15554428, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T12:27:26.954763+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect read from the head variable(s) student_loan_repayment (receipt), which gov_tax / gov_spending do not carry on the certified engine", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a105edae84120977f026", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates Retention: Extend Greater London Authority enhanced business rates retention arrangements, and pilot Business Rate Retentions for West England Combined Authority, Cornwall, and Liverpool City Region, for three years from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2fa899a332f7964f", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a1ccb613a233d428d1fd", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Late Filing Penalties: Double late filing penalties for Corporation Tax from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+60m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a21f691802537d2305ce", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+200m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a2d1a001b1b6a9c55134", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Delay bringing Employee Car Ownership schemes within the Benefit in Kind rules from 6 April 2026 to 6 April 2030, with a two year transition period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-150m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "82d535fae699c3f1", "external_value": -150000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a36418c11acd1f8b8f0b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Reduce the VCT scheme Income Tax relief from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+125m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1c9d3f34416e9ab6", "external_value": 125000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 125000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a3a2c7ba83a9cfdbb6b1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit (DB) Pension Scheme Surplus Extraction: Introduce flexibilities for employers and direct payments to members from April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+120m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "015669a22141273f", "external_value": 120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a96594445601e8987ccf", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:26.562649+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:26.562649+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b0447054a53357ab1444", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax Avoidance: Tighten the company share exchange and reconstruction rules to more effectively target Capital Gains Tax and Corporation Tax avoidance from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b4fbcf647c2783f026f6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "reform_hint": "Youth Guarantee: Provide targeted support for young people to earn or learn, including a jobs guarantee, starting from 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact [AME savings only]", "value_verbatim": "+45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "edc1a92f943039e4", "external_value": 45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bb444a839daad1491de5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-45m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": -45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bc4d48c1f9d2ce5a8554", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+785m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 785000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 785000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cf93060c5aea54acc909", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increasing the Immigration Skills Charge (ISC)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+165m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "70f727320ed78ce3", "external_value": 165000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 165000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d03974ec57d5671745da", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) emissions regulatory standard changes", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "da4df3bc2ecb57ffcaaa", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "reform_hint": "Supporting Savers: Make the Help to Save scheme permanent, maintain total ISA annual subscription limit at \u00a320,000 with cash limit reduced to \u00a312,000 for under-65s from April 2027, delay ISA digitalisation until April 2028 and maintain the ISA subscription limits until 2030/31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "program": "savings", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8a3c5181e02b1b9b", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "deaeaba1ff9369127a38", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Writing-down Allowances: Reduce the main rate writing-down allowance to 14% from April 2026 and introduce a new 40% first-year allowance from 1 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,505m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "76fff2379042f836", "external_value": 1505000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1505000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dfe7313fd019cb3c20e4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No additional behavioural effects are anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Introducing Penalty Reform for NMSA", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e0d69d399895eef30b99", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "reform_hint": "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Remove indirect emissions from scope of the CBAM from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-170m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1b2006d2932b127f", "external_value": -170000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -170000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e2277d68bf3389b979be", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax debt collection: Invest in HMRC's debt management capacity to increase collection of overdue tax debts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e2a3615f815780a9cd7e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27; 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:12:55.522029+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5105509270744815, "delta": 418478957.35131836 }, "results": [ { "value": -436521042.64868164, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:12:55.522029+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e2fc017a0bba7728420e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e35728c0756ed4665f65", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "reform_hint": "Advanced Corporation Tax (ACT) reform: Abolish shadow ACT restrictions to relax the limits on companies\u2019 use of surplus ACT balances from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8af60005543f8016", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e42e24939b40ea3fcb39", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Tariff changes since Spring Statement 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-95m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0504f0fca3fd26bc", "external_value": -95000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -95000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e62c05624c327cca2585", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Economic Crime (Anti Money Laundering) Levy Rate Increase", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+110m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fc184c3ea908ac", "external_value": 110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e72e184c958ac510b468", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Deliver recommendations from Volume 1 of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry's final report", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": -55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e87375353136b2adbba9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e8c2c300778ef7be4ea5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+775m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 775000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 775000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "eabe0faed195e924e8d0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ebc0cfa15fee52e9bd4e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Air Passenger Duty: Extend the scope of the higher rate to cover all private jets over 5.7 tonnes from 1 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "cc5b4ed255659628", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /air_passenger|apd|aviation|private_jet/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /air_passenger|apd|aviation|private_jet/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ec1d7ca4e1533681a4bf", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are not significant behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "reform_hint": "Non-reimbursed Homeworking Expenses: Remove the tax relief available from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+30m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 30000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ed931590108802e19178", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increase to the Money and Pensions Service (MaPS) Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bf9c655d5a7c94c3", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ef4aad8e402a0ed48841", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Carer\u2019s Allowance Review: Reassess overpayments from 2015 to 2025 caused by incorrect operational guidance", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-35m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "program": "carers_allowance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "638cdb76b2bab859", "external_value": -35000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -35000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f5050da363a0906610f4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "RHL multipliers", "value_verbatim": "-860m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": -860000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -860000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f59781f0cb0c3e1457d1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "reform_hint": "Soil and Land Remediation: DEFRA grant scheme to support Local Authority remediation of land", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "973585bb7dde813c", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f6747e892b7f45ebd7f4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Loan Charge: Government response to the independent review", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-30m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5438b645ba9cd38", "external_value": -30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -30000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f8db02c6e3b44c160748", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme: Transfer investment reserve to scheme members", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3936e8a0414d94d1", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f9fd7474ac5d72e793e2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects expected'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax debt collection: Invest in HMRC's debt management staff to increase collection of overdue tax debts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+85m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 85000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 85000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fc4b8044c3abd87621af", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief", "value_verbatim": "-865m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -865000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -865000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fc85d3e0f14ae5fcf949", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit: Reduce the financial cliff edge for claimants in supported housing and temporary accommodation from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "program": "housing_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d4047f13cf03b341", "external_value": -20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fe43ba46380f1fcaa8a5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+45m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "026fea270e30790c40ec", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,255m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 1255000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1255000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "02b20142feae568564bb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural change'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit Pensions: Provide inflation protection for pre-1997 pensions in the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and Financial Assistance Scheme (FAS) where members\u2019 former schemes provided it, from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-60m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "88c7abd7b0b1b071", "external_value": -60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "039130400db35c58aca6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief Supplement", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "04f26c9d298192f7e657", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No additional behavioural effects are anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Introducing Penalty Reform for NMSA", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "04f468acbd0e2254ec77", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "More timely payment for Self Assessment: Require ITSA taxpayers with Pay as You Earn (PAYE) income to pay more of their ITSA liabilities in-year via PAYE from April 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+85m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 85000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 85000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "051513efe6b90b1db73f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "Inheritance Tax: Maintain the nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band, and allowance for 100% rate of agricultural property relief and business property relief for a further year, from April 2030 until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "07073134c8501cf68fa3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "reform_hint": "Advanced Corporation Tax (ACT) reform: Abolish shadow ACT restrictions to relax the limits on companies\u2019 use of surplus ACT balances from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8af60005543f8016", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0a4fe01aa5c77c0f215b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "reform_hint": "Enterprise Management Incentives (EMI): Increase eligibility to allow scale-ups, as well as start-ups, to access the scheme from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-410m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2397e24e3dbcd42f", "external_value": -410000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -410000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0da1232b3dae966882af", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Increase the Venture Capital Trust (VCT) scheme and the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) annual and lifetime investment limits and the gross assets test from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "18f7521a5bf90ddc", "external_value": -45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0f395426698ed7162428", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not include any adjustment for a behavioural response'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "reform_hint": "Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Expansion of the UK ETS to International Maritime Routes from 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+75m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d72328abeb0ba34d", "external_value": 75000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 75000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0f786ee9bd1736251b39", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-70m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": -70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "159ec062a11202807d8b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are not significant behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "reform_hint": "Non-reimbursed Homeworking Expenses: Remove the tax relief available from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1672fdf78c8843dbf3ed", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6405ee1c18d09a53", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:52.806915+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2028-29: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:52.806915+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2028-29: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "18bc472d8045dffd1892", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) emissions regulatory standard changes", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+70m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "23206ced8034b3780a50", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Child Benefit: Exempt 16\u201319-year-olds with an illness or disability from the 12-hour weekly rule and equalise the treatment of non-standard educational settings from 1 September 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "84a96307fe87e163", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2449a2fb41ba416c9fec", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Carer\u2019s Allowance Review: Reassess overpayments from 2015 to 2025 caused by incorrect operational guidance", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "program": "carers_allowance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "638cdb76b2bab859", "external_value": -20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "284fdebf0de36ac9698d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "measure_scope": "England and Wales (presented UK-wide incl. Scottish BGA and NI Executive funding)", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to \u00a335,000 from Winter 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-1,330m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": -1330000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1330000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -1350902635.4329834, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:24:52.037184+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0157162672428446, "delta": -20902635.4329834 }, "results": [ { "value": -1350902635.4329834, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:24:52.037184+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2beaaebf480e714f92b8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "reform_hint": "Supporting Savers: Make the Help to Save scheme permanent, maintain total ISA annual subscription limit at \u00a320,000 with cash limit reduced to \u00a312,000 for under-65s from April 2027, delay ISA digitalisation until April 2028 and maintain the ISA subscription limits until 2030/31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "program": "savings", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8a3c5181e02b1b9b", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2ce1de245e5a8670f4a2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Maintain the secondary threshold for employer contributions at current level for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+290m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9a6d1ace6f3b5b3a", "external_value": 290000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 290000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 224666948.31237793, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:58:00.517468+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7747136148702687, "delta": -65333051.68762207 }, "results": [ { "value": 224666948.31237793, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:58:00.517468+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2d118bb7d04d7bca55ff", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+3,325m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 3325000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 3325000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 4838076868.264832, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:35.135337+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.4550607122600998, "delta": 1513076868.2648315 }, "results": [ { "value": 4838076868.264832, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:35.135337+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2e4683c2ff42da3d9f91", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,445m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -2445000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2445000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -2862605005.842285, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2028): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.863bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.870bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1707995933915276, "delta": -417605005.84228516 }, "results": [ { "value": -1315523732.194519, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:47.885030+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -2862605005.842285, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2028): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.863bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.870bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3588fe3dd5a8f006fdb5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Increase the Expensive Car Supplement threshold for zero emission vehicles to \u00a350,000, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-190m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "53efc873518a2d23", "external_value": -190000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -190000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3603eb099894d5b9785e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increasing the Immigration Skills Charge (ISC)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+145m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "70f727320ed78ce3", "external_value": 145000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 145000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "36c1365e085fbbfc32fa", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "reform_hint": "Health and Disability Benefits: Improve operations by increasing face-to-face assessments, increasing WCA reassessment capability, and PIP award review changes, starting from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+520m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "494e2ee24c82ed8e", "external_value": 520000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 520000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "36fcc936171ce0391388", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1725m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1725000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1725000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3cea2ce1e57d61594f4a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief", "value_verbatim": "-585m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -585000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -585000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3e330251aa419abaffa7", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "reform_hint": "Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief: Allow any unused allowance for the 100% rate of relief to be transferable between spouses and civil partners from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-70m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "dbfd369c9f255acc", "external_value": -70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3fbcf762871210fa34fe", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "41decfc938906b1c0d7a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Cross-border VAT grouping: Revert to unconditional whole entity cross-border VAT grouping from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d065b97a330cb396", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "421e2d4d85d450311424", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Lifelong Learning Entitlement, confirmation of policy detail for LLE launch on 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4a4226a1bc93165548bf", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-630m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a445f2d6200a2fde", "external_value": -630000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -630000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4ac5cde8894181641b2a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Late Filing Penalties: Double late filing penalties for Corporation Tax from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+65m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 65000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 65000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4d5df701710554daf191", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Tariff changes since Spring Statement 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0504f0fca3fd26bc", "external_value": -100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "511b635eae33d4eeb737", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects expected'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax debt collection: Invest in HMRC's debt management staff to increase collection of overdue tax debts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+155m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 155000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 155000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "512552a7a5399f096b19", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Scottish Government Police and Fire Pensions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-350m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e053d8b5ab4e74ac", "external_value": -350000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -350000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "54796e38529b1e6b5b30", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+265m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 265000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 265000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "57084b5b3a4871861951", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "625f71ae777394bd01c3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Benefit-in-Kind tax easement for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) company cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "62e2cb8871fca6b745e2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Extend the \u00a32,500 surplus earnings threshold for one year from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29bbf81f8bde7c6f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "63bfd852a27ab941b3d5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 1100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6490600de73e51376d22", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "International Student Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+445m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "211584fb4d098c6a", "external_value": 445000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 445000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "68feff63a3cdd33a674e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Increase to late payment penalty rate", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6a0e8966e0213aa7db86", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Extend 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars and electric vehicle charge points to 31 March 2027 for Corporation Tax and 5 April 2027 for Income Tax", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "355f19cf7dfccd5a", "external_value": 15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6c1d91712d107a5d6883", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Incorporation Relief: Require taxpayers to actively claim incorporation relief to improve compliance from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6c9d06fad2bb57333131", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increase to the Money and Pensions Service (MaPS) Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+15m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bf9c655d5a7c94c3", "external_value": 15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "76cb5cfaec9f6b79b568", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "791eacaec483c363b710", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Making better use of third-party data: Invest to acquire third-party data more frequently for interest and card sales from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+30m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 30000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "797f078a07676436415a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "reform_hint": "Soil and Land Remediation: DEFRA grant scheme to support Local Authority remediation of land", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+35m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "973585bb7dde813c", "external_value": 35000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 35000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7c6d4b47f5ecc63e3751", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,815m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -2815000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2815000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -2862605005.842285, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2028): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.863bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.870bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 1.0169111921286982, "delta": -47605005.842285156 }, "results": [ { "value": -1315523732.194519, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:47.885030+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -2862605005.842285, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2028; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2028): Exchequer effect \u00a3-2.863bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a32.870bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8034c1ee39b0d8439f4e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax Avoidance: Tighten the company share exchange and reconstruction rules to more effectively target Capital Gains Tax and Corporation Tax avoidance from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "82c21418d01450404826", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Cap trust charges at \u00a35m for pre-30 October 2024 excluded property trusts for charges applying from 6 April 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "84ef25d950ea77f39b42", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "86717bababd7234da532", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit (DB) Pension Scheme Surplus Extraction: Introduce flexibilities for employers and direct payments to members from April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+125m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "015669a22141273f", "external_value": 125000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 125000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8db7dd6d1488df757431", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-75m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6405ee1c18d09a53", "external_value": -75000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -75000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:52.806915+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2028-29: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 75000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:52.806915+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2028-29: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8dd07475ac3a10afd814", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8f51dd146b1f25f31a50", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Post Office Capture Redress Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "93d87a3c339bd6841898", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme: Transfer investment reserve to scheme members", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3936e8a0414d94d1", "external_value": -20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "96a2f9dff00b2db1db17", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transfer Pricing: Introduce a requirement for in- scope multinationals to file an International Controlled Transactions Schedule from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+150m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 150000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 150000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "96cee4780acd026bbfed", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax adviser non-compliance: Strengthen powers to tackle tax advisers who facilitate non- compliance from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "98c48ac8fd44f79a75dd", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "reform_hint": "VAT: Introduce a relief for business donations of goods to charity for onward distribution or use in the delivery of their services, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "faa75a07ff8b16bc", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "99855b75252c4cb2f786", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Non-derecognition liabilities: Introduce anti- avoidance rule to tackle certain arrangements involving non-derecognition liabilities from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+145m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 145000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 145000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9c9f3e04f52b6f2420a8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Loan Charge: Government response to the independent review", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+35m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5438b645ba9cd38", "external_value": 35000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 35000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9e3a6f0540998749a536", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not make a behavioural adjustment'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Renewables Obligation share of an electricity bill is not a parameter. The engine has electricity_consumption (LCFS-imputed, NEED-calibrated) and a flat energy_bills_credit lever (gov.treasury.energy_bills_rebate.energy_bills_credit), so the measure is a CONSTRUCTION: bill x domestic RO share (~41%, HMT) x 75%, or the ~GBP 150 average as a flat credit. Either is stated as constructed, never comparable.", "reform_hint": "Renewables Obligation: Fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation via the Exchequer over the Spending Review period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,195m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "electricity_consumption", "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9ca24eb4e469691a", "external_value": -2195000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2195000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a22de81facf0e22e0ae8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Remove access to Class 2 National Insurance contributions (NICs) and increase the initial residency and contributions history requirements for Class 3 NICs for individuals abroad from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "60e7246c2f8564b1", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a433a931145f3baab5cb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'includes no adjustments for behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a Supporting Small Business scheme from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-305m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -305000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -305000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a82e10cd9d1a4d8f0300", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "RHL multipliers", "value_verbatim": "-865m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": -865000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -865000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "abb734cf24f05e62d740", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Deliver recommendations from Volume 1 of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry's final report", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": -55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ae43176232a2ce1166fc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Vaping Duty Stamps: Introduce a Vaping Duty Stamps scheme alongside Vaping Products Duty from 1 October 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. 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Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+605" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": 605000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 605000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 525782246.8251953, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:46.359726+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8690615650003228, "delta": -79217753.17480469 }, "results": [ { "value": 525782246.8251953, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:46.359726+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b37fa974fddedc1c401a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "High-value multiplier", "value_verbatim": "+795m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 795000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 795000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b58c333d1e8d76ef4ddf", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+625m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 625000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 625000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b67d9e90101ab706e69e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Extend Targeted Case Review of Universal Credit to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2797a7f49790137f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b6e32b5897ba789206e8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Property Income: Introduce separate tax rates for property income at 22% for the property basic rate, 42% for the property higher rate and 47% for the property additional rate, from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+590m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2813c0b5ccaaec98", "external_value": 590000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 590000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 504737007.2144165, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:29.367201+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8554864529057907, "delta": -85262992.7855835 }, "results": [ { "value": 504737007.2144165, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:29.367201+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b909b47face9cb9f1ff0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "reform_hint": "Youth Guarantee: Provide targeted support for young people to earn or learn, including a jobs guarantee, starting from 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact [AME savings only]", "value_verbatim": "+45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "edc1a92f943039e4", "external_value": 45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ba2c82d135dd7b87adff", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit and Pension Credit Administration: Bring together the administration of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+105m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ce483a4cf52b1bf2", "external_value": 105000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 105000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bd29e6538fa1961c5888", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-625m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": -625000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -625000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "be324a96cbf4951edf18", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax debt collection: Invest in HMRC's debt management capacity to increase collection of overdue tax debts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+90m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 90000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 90000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bfe244c6f1f184d035e3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transitional penalties arrangements under Making Tax Digital", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c0b458cb78abdc1b0dc1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Reduce the VCT scheme Income Tax relief from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+95m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1c9d3f34416e9ab6", "external_value": 95000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 95000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c0c702e289aee97d5ddf", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+825m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 825000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 825000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c72bdb4b2202f3362770", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Air Passenger Duty: Extend the scope of the higher rate to cover all private jets over 5.7 tonnes from 1 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "cc5b4ed255659628", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /air_passenger|apd|aviation|private_jet/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /air_passenger|apd|aviation|private_jet/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cc60f836e6fb472d7dfc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "measure_scope": "England and Northern Ireland", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Landfill Tax: Increase the lower rate by the cash increase of the standard rate from 1 April 2026 and in each year of the forecast period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+85m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "aac32edbf6d15db8", "external_value": 85000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 85000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cfe643c089e8074004e1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The announcement-baseline leg (#13). Relative to current law the measure is a null change: gov.dwp.pip.* carries the unreformed award rates, and the Spring Statement 2025 four-point daily-living rule was never a parameter, so the world HMT scores against (the abandoned reform) cannot be executed. Scoring it needs the counterfactual world, not a lever.", "reform_hint": "Personal Independence Payment: Not proceeding with Spring Statement 2025 reforms to eligibility", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-3,350m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "program": "pip", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d95b6438a110c7", "external_value": -3350000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -3350000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d44a9244abaafa3c2741", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at \u00a35000 from April 2026 to April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+525m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4bfac4d85ab5b3a1", "external_value": 525000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 525000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1111461379.5609741, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:04:52.756037+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.1170692944018557, "delta": 586461379.5609741 }, "results": [ { "value": 1111461379.5609741, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:04:52.756037+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d5811ad834c47a682ceb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+905m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 905000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 905000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d6bd0f49e2319b12162b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27; extend the 5p cut in rates to 31 August 2026, then increase by 1p from 1 September 2026, 2p from 1 December 2026, and 2p from 1 March 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-855m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "program": "fuel_duty", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "fuel_duty" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c3e1cfcd25a0df2e", "external_value": -855000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -855000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -304287209.6838379, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:06.386245+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.3558914733144303, "delta": 550712790.3161621 }, "results": [ { "value": -304287209.6838379, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:06.386245+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d704070e0a8874fa0b0e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Rewards for informants of high value tax fraud: New Rewards for Informants scheme for high value tax fraud from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dbe4da53d198993d84c1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "reform_hint": "UK Listing Relief: Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief for transfers of a company's securities for a three- year period from the point of listing, effective from 27 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "program": "stamp_taxes", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "71b435fe1c807a4b", "external_value": -50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dbedac76932dca3d0397", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "reform_hint": "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Remove indirect emissions from scope of the CBAM from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-180m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1b2006d2932b127f", "external_value": -180000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -180000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "de369d52e5c36397dda1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Low Value Imports: Reform the customs treatment of low value imports from March 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db25b0d137ee6bf8", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e387ce56821f0ae1168b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit: Reduce the financial cliff edge for claimants in supported housing and temporary accommodation from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "program": "housing_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d4047f13cf03b341", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e556083ada0dcac7caf3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Digital prompts: Invest in new technology to provide taxpayers with real time digital prompts for VAT from April 2027 and Corporation Tax from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+140m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 140000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 140000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e711308864e500ab588f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Closure of post-departure trade profits loophole from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+170m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": 170000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 170000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e7fb2844bcb05ad2126b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Improve accuracy in Pension Credit claims from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+135m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0f7a59fa2f71ff08", "external_value": 135000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 135000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|accuracy|review/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|accuracy|review/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e91554bb7d73eb723caa", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Delay bringing Employee Car Ownership schemes within the Benefit in Kind rules from 6 April 2026 to 6 April 2030, with a two year transition period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-150m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "82d535fae699c3f1", "external_value": -150000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f5a61f6287b3f3b534f6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates Retention: Extend Greater London Authority enhanced business rates retention arrangements, and pilot Business Rate Retentions for West England Combined Authority, Cornwall, and Liverpool City Region, for three years from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2fa899a332f7964f", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f7c9ae5f955691958652", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Small business rates relief and rural rate relief interaction", "value_verbatim": "+105m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 105000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 105000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fa41c0492bee4718a8fe", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "reform_hint": "Sizewell C: Reclassify construction costs and recognise income generated through the Regulated Asset Base levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+675m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "05df94b4fe468f2e", "external_value": 675000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 675000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fd696888f8c85343a352", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+225m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 225000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 225000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "628b13b784af34521962", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "from 2028/29, per year", "name": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge (factsheet)", "window": "", "publication_title": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge (factsheet)", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-value-council-tax-surcharge/high-value-council-tax-surcharge", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation": "per year from 2028/29", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge on owners of residential property in England worth \u00a32 million or more in 2026, from April 2028", "sign_convention": "as worded: 'raise' (positive = yield)", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a3430 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": 430000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 430000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 525782246.8251953, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:46.359726+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2227494112213844, "delta": 95782246.82519531 }, "results": [ { "value": 525782246.8251953, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:46.359726+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "07b30bc2974d45c9a488", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+4,870m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6405ee1c18d09a53", "external_value": 4870000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 4870000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2282579319.3875732, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:59.726204+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.46870211897075426, "delta": -2587420680.6124268 }, "results": [ { "value": 2282579319.3875732, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:59.726204+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0aba21117c5a4dcaff31", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Extend the \u00a32,500 surplus earnings threshold for one year from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29bbf81f8bde7c6f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0abf87a27f031b5dbd71", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "reform_hint": "VAT: Introduce a relief for business donations of goods to charity for onward distribution or use in the delivery of their services, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "faa75a07ff8b16bc", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0b6d75d0ba5e1f1ead44", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit: Reduce the financial cliff edge for claimants in supported housing and temporary accommodation from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "program": "housing_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d4047f13cf03b341", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0df360c8ec172fee5b5f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Low Value Imports: Reform the customs treatment of low value imports from March 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+535m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db25b0d137ee6bf8", "external_value": 535000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 535000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "15e16b2f507dc5ed4b08", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increasing the Immigration Skills Charge (ISC)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+150m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "70f727320ed78ce3", "external_value": 150000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 150000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1d3942a037c465cc9fcd", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increase to the Money and Pensions Service (MaPS) Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:16.511894+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "217f91ee101d6ea74bda", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:59.726204+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.4711206025567747, "delta": -2562420680.6124268 }, "results": [ { "value": 2282579319.3875732, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); 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no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "26e7590bb6887433f16f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Improve accuracy in Pension Credit claims from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+75m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0f7a59fa2f71ff08", "external_value": 75000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 75000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|accuracy|review/. 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Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2915b9da7268768c2f71", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Deliver recommendations from Volume 1 of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry's final report", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2e5399928bb198a95f5d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,435m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 1435000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1435000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "31421f810ab90aedeb40", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1810m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1810000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1810000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "32db2c8af22de3538590", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Lifelong Learning Entitlement, confirmation of policy detail for LLE launch on 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "34a91b67075eeb4a0d9d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Image Rights payments: Clarify image rights payments by an employer to an employee are taxable as employment income from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3a5716273b1abf31efff", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "reform_hint": "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Remove indirect emissions from scope of the CBAM from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-170m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1b2006d2932b127f", "external_value": -170000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -170000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3b1afdb827213c4975db", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Increase to late payment penalty rate", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+90m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 90000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 90000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3da50fd9d799a099e187", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:53.941429+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3e5c3b9b121246835509", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The announcement-baseline leg (#13). Relative to current law the measure is a null change: gov.dwp.pip.* carries the unreformed award rates, and the Spring Statement 2025 four-point daily-living rule was never a parameter, so the world HMT scores against (the abandoned reform) cannot be executed. Scoring it needs the counterfactual world, not a lever.", "reform_hint": "Personal Independence Payment: Not proceeding with Spring Statement 2025 reforms to eligibility", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-4,495m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "program": "pip", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d95b6438a110c7", "external_value": -4495000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -4495000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "46439afcec193357e4e6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural change'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit Pensions: Provide inflation protection for pre-1997 pensions in the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and Financial Assistance Scheme (FAS) where members\u2019 former schemes provided it, from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-65m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "88c7abd7b0b1b071", "external_value": -65000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -65000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "48c8435c051eefd676d5", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Tariff changes since Spring Statement 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0504f0fca3fd26bc", "external_value": -100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "49f5eecaa404b5d16f5f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "reform_hint": "Sizewell C: Reclassify construction costs and recognise income generated through the Regulated Asset Base levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+795m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "05df94b4fe468f2e", "external_value": 795000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 795000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4a41308d52e57c40c7b6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Cross-border VAT grouping: Revert to unconditional whole entity cross-border VAT grouping from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d065b97a330cb396", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cross_border_vat_grouping_reverted", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat_group|cross_border|grouping/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporate VAT grouping rules; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4dce01b8c3c61855dcdf", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax debt collection: Invest in HMRC's debt management capacity to increase collection of overdue tax debts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+170m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 170000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 170000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4e74caf0ee2b67838e75", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Extend 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars and electric vehicle charge points to 31 March 2027 for Corporation Tax and 5 April 2027 for Income Tax", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "355f19cf7dfccd5a", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5594d44d4faa5467d89a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transitional penalties arrangements under Making Tax Digital", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5899faea880dd665d995", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "RHL multipliers", "value_verbatim": "-865m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": -865000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -865000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5c2514bff6553785dd1f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No additional behavioural effects are anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Introducing Penalty Reform for NMSA", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-45m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": -45000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -45000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5d7648e6f34453870905", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Extend Targeted Case Review of Universal Credit to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2797a7f49790137f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5fe21a561075cff6da9b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at \u00a35000 from April 2026 to April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+470m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4bfac4d85ab5b3a1", "external_value": 470000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 470000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1175278484.0128174, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:01.082475+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.500592519176207, "delta": 705278484.0128174 }, "results": [ { "value": 1175278484.0128174, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:01.082475+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "60fcd3e9744ba50730d9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Rewards for informants of high value tax fraud: New Rewards for Informants scheme for high value tax fraud from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+95m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 95000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 95000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "613fd2dc7db71ac83279", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Small business rates relief and rural rate relief interaction", "value_verbatim": "+105m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 105000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 105000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "619dcfe4f4e85e62639f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Construction Industry Scheme: Strengthen HMRC powers to tackle fraud from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+120m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "642413683055b5657e9b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates Retention: Extend Greater London Authority enhanced business rates retention arrangements, and pilot Business Rate Retentions for West England Combined Authority, Cornwall, and Liverpool City Region, for three years from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2fa899a332f7964f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6433288ca2c45e1c77c3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "reform_hint": "Soil and Land Remediation: DEFRA grant scheme to support Local Authority remediation of land", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "973585bb7dde813c", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6464b15f66dbd44cf6d8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1000m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "67f3e4d6a1070d902798", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,715m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -2715000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2715000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -3187208199.3825684, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2029): Exchequer effect \u00a3-3.187bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a33.187bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1739256719641136, "delta": -472208199.38256836 }, "results": [ { "value": -1337451105.5802002, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:55.234418+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -3187208199.3825684, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2029): Exchequer effect \u00a3-3.187bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a33.187bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6aefc2354014034ff673", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme: Transfer investment reserve to scheme members", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3936e8a0414d94d1", "external_value": -20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6b1233f96f76e4c6d7f2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transfer Pricing: Introduce a requirement for in- scope multinationals to file an International Controlled Transactions Schedule from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+245m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 245000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 245000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6e9d0cb90f309b74bff6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Maintain the secondary threshold for employer contributions at current level for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+615m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9a6d1ace6f3b5b3a", "external_value": 615000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 615000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 481150041.1246338, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:58:07.249038+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.782357790446559, "delta": -133849958.87536621 }, "results": [ { "value": 481150041.1246338, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:58:07.249038+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "73058d74fd0fa7176ed2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+905m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 905000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 905000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "73d95b61fdf7d5c3faed", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not make a behavioural adjustment'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Renewables Obligation share of an electricity bill is not a parameter. The engine has electricity_consumption (LCFS-imputed, NEED-calibrated) and a flat energy_bills_credit lever (gov.treasury.energy_bills_rebate.energy_bills_credit), so the measure is a CONSTRUCTION: bill x domestic RO share (~41%, HMT) x 75%, or the ~GBP 150 average as a flat credit. Either is stated as constructed, never comparable.", "reform_hint": "Renewables Obligation: Fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation via the Exchequer over the Spending Review period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "electricity_consumption", "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9ca24eb4e469691a", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "788c7a37e55fd965df05", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+70m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7ac2ddf802979e7c6bed", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Property Income: Introduce separate tax rates for property income at 22% for the property basic rate, 42% for the property higher rate and 47% for the property additional rate, from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+435m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2813c0b5ccaaec98", "external_value": 435000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 435000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 526704409.86291504, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:35.860425+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.210814735317046, "delta": 91704409.86291504 }, "results": [ { "value": 526704409.86291504, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:35.860425+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7c3072ece914b6d7d0eb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Late Filing Penalties: Double late filing penalties for Corporation Tax from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+65m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 65000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 65000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7e01d47afdf187cee417", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Increase the Expensive Car Supplement threshold for zero emission vehicles to \u00a350,000, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-325m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "53efc873518a2d23", "external_value": -325000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -325000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. 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Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "802f6ee863ea8129716e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+7,650m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 7650000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 7650000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 7981272767.158691, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "84c7cb604f0f209b322f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Economic Crime (Anti Money Laundering) Levy Rate Increase", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+115m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fc184c3ea908ac", "external_value": 115000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 115000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "855de5189b29e9c9275d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Post Office Capture Redress Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8e46acbe393c0c208f78", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-640m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": -640000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -640000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8f0560fc09591977d058", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Remove access to Class 2 National Insurance contributions (NICs) and increase the initial residency and contributions history requirements for Class 3 NICs for individuals abroad from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "60e7246c2f8564b1", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9093842d95a3f043d5b1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "948f349245832aebe692", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Closure of post-departure trade profits loophole from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+160m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": 160000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 160000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "97b9e756b9d2501432c0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+280m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 280000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 280000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "97d6c677b464338f8233", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-3,095m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -3095000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -3095000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -3187208199.3825684, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2029): Exchequer effect \u00a3-3.187bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a33.187bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 1.0297926330799898, "delta": -92208199.38256836 }, "results": [ { "value": -1337451105.5802002, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:55.234418+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -3187208199.3825684, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2029): Exchequer effect \u00a3-3.187bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a33.187bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9836867c1dc8a2a90040", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit (DB) Pension Scheme Surplus Extraction: Introduce flexibilities for employers and direct payments to members from April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+135m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "015669a22141273f", "external_value": 135000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 135000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a186803017d804178f69", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "reform_hint": "Enterprise Management Incentives (EMI): Increase eligibility to allow scale-ups, as well as start-ups, to access the scheme from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-585m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2397e24e3dbcd42f", "external_value": -585000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -585000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a1ed7cd62db345ba34d6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Student Loans: Freeze Plan 2 repayment threshold for three years from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+355m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "student_loan_repayment" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.student_loans.thresholds.plan_2" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "09524ad9e271897a", "external_value": 355000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 355000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 489135829.7342968, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T12:27:39.997445+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect read from the head variable(s) student_loan_repayment (receipt), which gov_tax / gov_spending do not carry on the certified engine", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3778474077022445, "delta": 134135829.7342968 }, "results": [ { "value": 489135829.7342968, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T12:27:39.997445+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect read from the head variable(s) student_loan_repayment (receipt), which gov_tax / gov_spending do not carry on the certified engine", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a701717c497cb183dfa2", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "reform_hint": "Advanced Corporation Tax (ACT) reform: Abolish shadow ACT restrictions to relax the limits on companies\u2019 use of surplus ACT balances from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8af60005543f8016", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a9f9b84a0e9374b717fe", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Scottish Government Police and Fire Pensions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-360m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e053d8b5ab4e74ac", "external_value": -360000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -360000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aa44547c9fd4848b79dc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b22783375471aa031869", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Benefit-in-Kind tax easement for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) company cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:53.941429+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b7d5e1c549b4a4d1dedc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Reduce the VCT scheme Income Tax relief from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+95m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1c9d3f34416e9ab6", "external_value": 95000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 95000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bb5f78ade1fc6d56cff8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "reform_hint": "Youth Guarantee: Provide targeted support for young people to earn or learn, including a jobs guarantee, starting from 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact [AME savings only]", "value_verbatim": "+50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "edc1a92f943039e4", "external_value": 50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "be5f21f9ac4dfed104cd", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Cap trust charges at \u00a35m for pre-30 October 2024 excluded property trusts for charges applying from 6 April 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": -20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "be8b3bc8e86dfd260468", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Increase spending on student loans due to a new means-tested maintenance grant offer for students from academic year 2028/29", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c0228a60c3fb29802b30", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "reform_hint": "UK Listing Relief: Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief for transfers of a company's securities for a three- year period from the point of listing, effective from 27 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "program": "stamp_taxes", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "71b435fe1c807a4b", "external_value": -50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c07158691f467febd643", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+640m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 640000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 640000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c3b16e1ae233dc4b4fa9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief Supplement", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c55232eed490b9ea3584", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "reform_hint": "Soft Drink Industry Levy: Reduce the levy threshold from 5g to 4.5g/100ml and extend to milk-based drinks and milk substitutes from 1 January 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8c553b05740aca02", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c8386be619ccfda06acb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "reform_hint": "Health and Disability Benefits: Improve operations by increasing face-to-face assessments, increasing WCA reassessment capability, and PIP award review changes, starting from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+580m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "494e2ee24c82ed8e", "external_value": 580000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 580000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c88b24c422bf387cf859", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "Inheritance Tax: Maintain the nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band, and allowance for 100% rate of agricultural property relief and business property relief for a further year, from April 2030 until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cc992a6af428c4bd6396", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,135m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1135000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1135000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d23bcfd159ba0b240e73", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Writing-down Allowances: Reduce the main rate writing-down allowance to 14% from April 2026 and introduce a new 40% first-year allowance from 1 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,470m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "76fff2379042f836", "external_value": 1470000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1470000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d4635e6a2d9565f4fb45", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects expected'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax debt collection: Invest in HMRC's debt management staff to increase collection of overdue tax debts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+115m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 115000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 115000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d4b8dc99d886c7b416a1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d561dec1514ae5f6e854", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "reform_hint": "Supporting Savers: Make the Help to Save scheme permanent, maintain total ISA annual subscription limit at \u00a320,000 with cash limit reduced to \u00a312,000 for under-65s from April 2027, delay ISA digitalisation until April 2028 and maintain the ISA subscription limits until 2030/31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-35m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "program": "savings", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8a3c5181e02b1b9b", "external_value": -35000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -35000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d7cadf8ceb350e9e81e6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Incorporation Relief: Require taxpayers to actively claim incorporation relief to improve compliance from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+110m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d8c5e6054172263ec80a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not include any adjustment for a behavioural response'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "reform_hint": "Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS): Expansion of the UK ETS to International Maritime Routes from 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+290m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d72328abeb0ba34d", "external_value": 290000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 290000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d90685a76f9ef1590947", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "reform_hint": "Agricultural Property Relief and Business Property Relief: Allow any unused allowance for the 100% rate of relief to be transferable between spouses and civil partners from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-70m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "dbfd369c9f255acc", "external_value": -70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apr_bpr_unused_allowance_transferable_between_spouses", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|agricultural|business_property|relief_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Inheritance tax relief on agricultural and business property: no estates or IHT at the pin (see the nil-rate-band entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "da056199ee94ae086fa6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Non-derecognition liabilities: Introduce anti- avoidance rule to tackle certain arrangements involving non-derecognition liabilities from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+110m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "db102a2c33b7cb4d5bf1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'includes no adjustments for behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a Supporting Small Business scheme from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dba40b9cf3ea8cf33646", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit and Pension Credit Administration: Bring together the administration of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+225m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ce483a4cf52b1bf2", "external_value": 225000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 225000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ddd2e9ec1c068bc57993", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "measure_scope": "England and Northern Ireland", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Landfill Tax: Increase the lower rate by the cash increase of the standard rate from 1 April 2026 and in each year of the forecast period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+110m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "aac32edbf6d15db8", "external_value": 110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e40da41629dcbb42dc83", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Vaping Duty Stamps: Introduce a Vaping Duty Stamps scheme alongside Vaping Products Duty from 1 October 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e46b5b42ba344506c0a4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+7,780m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 7780000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 7780000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 7981272767.158691, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:43.283596+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0258705356245104, "delta": 201272767.1586914 }, "results": [ { "value": 7981272767.158691, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:43.283596+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e4b8051d1f2518d22607", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+325m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 325000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 325000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e70ad2a1d76f9abb427f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e7bc053298c879a1cb74", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "More timely payment for Self Assessment: Require ITSA taxpayers with Pay as You Earn (PAYE) income to pay more of their ITSA liabilities in-year via PAYE from April 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+605m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 605000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 605000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e91199b3616da1352ffd", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax Avoidance: Tighten the company share exchange and reconstruction rules to more effectively target Capital Gains Tax and Corporation Tax avoidance from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ee8f4f919bbdb5443dfb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Child Benefit: Exempt 16\u201319-year-olds with an illness or disability from the 12-hour weekly rule and equalise the treatment of non-standard educational settings from 1 September 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "84a96307fe87e163", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f32d24f51b643c51d9c3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "High-value multiplier", "value_verbatim": "+795m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 795000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 795000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f3aae4424f1f541ddc8f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Carer\u2019s Allowance Review: Reassess overpayments from 2015 to 2025 caused by incorrect operational guidance", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "program": "carers_allowance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "638cdb76b2bab859", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f5e4d1910fc328925647", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Dividend Income: Increase tax rates on dividend income by 2ppts at the ordinary and upper rate from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,325m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5e58b8743cde2414", "external_value": 1325000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 1325000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 956856803.2247314, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:20.846590+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7221560779054577, "delta": -368143196.77526855 }, "results": [ { "value": 956856803.2247314, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:20.846590+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f6c737facda123f71e47", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Making better use of third-party data: Invest to acquire third-party data more frequently for interest and card sales from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+350m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 350000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 350000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f850d7b6b9615b2d8b8e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax adviser non-compliance: Strengthen powers to tackle tax advisers who facilitate non- compliance from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f8f5048bd3522b4177e0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Loan Charge: Government response to the independent review", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-155m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5438b645ba9cd38", "external_value": -155000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -155000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fcc34e4fb2ae0279bd0b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,640m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 1640000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1640000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fcc907f437bb887e3391", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are not significant behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "reform_hint": "Non-reimbursed Homeworking Expenses: Remove the tax relief available from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "05d10dd83509eb6dea64", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Image Rights payments: Clarify image rights payments by an employer to an employee are taxable as employment income from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0b733e8ab00534f12887", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "reform_hint": "Enterprise Management Incentives (EMI): Increase eligibility to allow scale-ups, as well as start-ups, to access the scheme from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-695m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2397e24e3dbcd42f", "external_value": -695000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -695000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__emi_eligibility_extended_to_scale_ups", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emi\\b|share_option|enterprise_management/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Enterprise Management Incentives: company share-option scheme eligibility; no household base.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0b7db348581bd3d149f8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Savings Income: Increase tax rates on savings income by 2ppts at the basic, higher and additional rate from 6 April 2027 and maintain the Starting Rate of Savings limit at \u00a35000 from April 2026 to April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+505m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4bfac4d85ab5b3a1", "external_value": 505000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 505000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 1244568076.2560425, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:09.493342+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.4644912401109753, "delta": 739568076.2560425 }, "results": [ { "value": 1244568076.2560425, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:09.493342+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0f2311e456234a0df816", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "reform_hint": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme: Exclude Private Hire Vehicle Services from the scope of the scheme from 2 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+675m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4392fede4e6eb91d", "external_value": 675000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 675000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__toms_private_hire_vehicles_excluded", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /private_hire|tour_operator|toms|taxi/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Tour Operators' Margin Scheme VAT on private-hire services: an operator-side VAT scheme; household VAT is modelled on LCFS consumption categories with no private-hire split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0f52c5b2619e1b8d8eeb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "High-value multiplier", "value_verbatim": "+795m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 795000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 795000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "11319dc3eb7284c84685", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-2,850m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -2850000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2850000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -3384932377.9678955, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2030): Exchequer effect \u00a3-3.385bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a33.385bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1876955712168054, "delta": -534932377.9678955 }, "results": [ { "value": -1383786399.4030151, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:11:02.273112+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -3384932377.9678955, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Both are static Exchequer costs. HM Treasury's static leg compares Universal Credit expenditure before and after removal for families with a third or later child born after April 2017, before the costing's behavioural response; PolicyEngine's value is the change in gov_tax less the change in gov_spending with no behavioural response (the change in universal_credit alone is in the measured note).", "Measured (engine period 2030): Exchequer effect \u00a3-3.385bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a33.385bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "12a7b145d8ca034ec3cb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "reform_hint": "UK Listing Relief: Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief for transfers of a company's securities for a three- year period from the point of listing, effective from 27 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "program": "stamp_taxes", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "71b435fe1c807a4b", "external_value": -50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdrt|reserve_tax|listing|securities/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief on newly listed securities; no securities-transaction base (stamp duty at the pin is land tax).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "14e9524a3788115d9273", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Closure of post-departure trade profits loophole from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+135m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": 135000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 135000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "16d89131a87dfabd65f0", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax debt collection: Invest in HMRC's debt management capacity to increase collection of overdue tax debts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+485m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 485000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 485000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1814463e45ea1adc0c6b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme: Transfer investment reserve to scheme members", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3936e8a0414d94d1", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__british_coal_staff_superannuation_scheme_reserve_transfer", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /coal|superannuation|reserve_transfer/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "One-off transfer of a scheme's investment reserve to its members; scheme membership is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1a177e30864e4fe04025", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Tariff changes since Spring Statement 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-105m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0504f0fca3fd26bc", "external_value": -105000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -105000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__tariffs_changes_since_spring_2025", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tariff|customs|import/. Parameters: 26 node(s) ['gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.ESA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.amount', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.step', 'gov.dwp.JSA.income.capital.tariff_income.threshold']. Variables: 5 ['jsa_income_tariff_income', 'esa_income_tariff_income', 'income_support_tariff_income', 'housing_benefit_tariff_income', 'uc_tariff_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs tariffs; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "201c1413f41a43c65611", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Writing-down Allowances: Reduce the main rate writing-down allowance to 14% from April 2026 and introduce a new 40% first-year allowance from 1 January 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,450m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "76fff2379042f836", "external_value": 1450000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1450000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "22360ea567145e3b569f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No additional behavioural effects are anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Introducing Penalty Reform for NMSA", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-30m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": -30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -30000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "22c78b2b84c76ac11d9a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Air Passenger Duty: Extend the scope of the higher rate to cover all private jets over 5.7 tonnes from 1 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "cc5b4ed255659628", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /air_passenger|apd|aviation|private_jet/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__apd_higher_rate_extended_to_private_jets", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /air_passenger|apd|aviation|private_jet/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Air passenger duty is not modelled and private-jet travel is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "27f185b8fee8ff419a09", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "Inheritance Tax: Maintain the nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band, and allowance for 100% rate of agricultural property relief and business property relief for a further year, from April 2030 until April 2031", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+130m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 130000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 130000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2b2eeb9821f73d94ad1c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+75m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 75000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 75000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2b3753e267da6b7a0332", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates Retention: Extend Greater London Authority enhanced business rates retention arrangements, and pilot Business Rate Retentions for West England Combined Authority, Cornwall, and Liverpool City Region, for three years from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2fa899a332f7964f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_retention_gla_and_pilots", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|retention/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Local-government revenue retention arrangements; no household incidence.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "33fd0cf20632a32bdbf1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional revenue", "value_verbatim": "+640m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 640000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 640000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3560f4aa1f147de93263", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Deliver recommendations from Volume 1 of the Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry's final report", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3576ea92b929c2d1328d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Rewards for informants of high value tax fraud: New Rewards for Informants scheme for high value tax fraud from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+65m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 65000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 65000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "38f3b1f49bec7a6c0190", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increase to the Money and Pensions Service (MaPS) Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+15m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bf9c655d5a7c94c3", "external_value": 15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3a89f90ed6abc3531b23", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Increase the Expensive Car Supplement threshold for zero emission vehicles to \u00a350,000, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-505m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "53efc873518a2d23", "external_value": -505000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -505000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /expensive_car|vehicle_excise|ved\\b|car_purchase/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Vehicle excise duty is not modelled and vehicle purchase price is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3b3fcd95d62c15241387", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "reform_hint": "Health and Disability Benefits: Improve operations by increasing face-to-face assessments, increasing WCA reassessment capability, and PIP award review changes, starting from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+455m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "494e2ee24c82ed8e", "external_value": 455000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 455000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__health_and_disability_benefits_operations", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Operational delivery (face-to-face assessments, WCA reassessment capacity, PIP award-review frequency); the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3c87a09e910f159cfa68", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27; extend the 5p cut in rates to 31 August 2026, then increase by 1p from 1 September 2026, 2p from 1 December 2026, and 2p from 1 March 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-840m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "program": "fuel_duty", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "fuel_duty" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c3e1cfcd25a0df2e", "external_value": -840000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -840000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -222428230.3647461, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:25.200407+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.26479551233898346, "delta": 617571769.6352539 }, "results": [ { "value": -222428230.3647461, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:13:25.200407+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "42e2eb4924258f2519e9", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4c40c133f036812404c7", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-3,235m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3236600844bf3f17", "external_value": -3235000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -3235000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -3384932377.9678955, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2030): Exchequer effect \u00a3-3.385bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a33.385bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch", "ratio": 1.046346948367201, "delta": -149932377.9678955 }, "results": [ { "value": -1383786399.4030151, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:11:02.273112+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -3384932377.9678955, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "static: current law minus the with-limit world, gov_tax less gov_spending, engine period 2030; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_tax", "gov_spending", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "HM Treasury's post-behavioural costing (\u00a33.1 billion in 2029-30, the figure Budget 2025 Table 1.2 carries as 'Removing the two-child limit' and Table 4.1 line 6 as -3,095m) adds new claims: 11% take-up among the newly entitled and 22% among previously entitled non-claimants. PolicyEngine's value is static, so it should be read against the static leg.", "Measured (engine period 2030): Exchequer effect \u00a3-3.385bn (change in gov_tax less change in gov_spending); Universal Credit changes by \u00a33.385bn.", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4cc7de3e4939d03ad16a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Motability: Introduce VAT at the standard rate on Advance Payments paid to Motability or equivalent schemes, and Insurance Premium Tax at the standard rate on insurance related to vehicle leases, from 1 July 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+305m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "290a4a1ed498975c", "external_value": 305000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 305000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4f1a6877f32ae4cd5ed6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'does not make a behavioural adjustment'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Renewables Obligation share of an electricity bill is not a parameter. The engine has electricity_consumption (LCFS-imputed, NEED-calibrated) and a flat energy_bills_credit lever (gov.treasury.energy_bills_rebate.energy_bills_credit), so the measure is a CONSTRUCTION: bill x domestic RO share (~41%, HMT) x 75%, or the ~GBP 150 average as a flat credit. Either is stated as constructed, never comparable.", "reform_hint": "Renewables Obligation: Fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation via the Exchequer over the Spending Review period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__renewables_obligation_exchequer_funded_75pct", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "electricity_consumption", "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9ca24eb4e469691a", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "534ee9a944fbf77b582b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "554f76a7135c07aeff76", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Loan Charge: Government response to the independent review", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-95m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5438b645ba9cd38", "external_value": -95000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -95000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__loan_charge_review_response", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /loan_charge|disguised|remuneration/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disguised-remuneration loan charge settlements: a historic-liability administrative measure with no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "589bf4288b4f39732fc1", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "More timely payment for Self Assessment: Require ITSA taxpayers with Pay as You Earn (PAYE) income to pay more of their ITSA liabilities in-year via PAYE from April 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+235m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 235000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 235000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5dc755724d2175827a3a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Increase the Venture Capital Trust (VCT) scheme and the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) annual and lifetime investment limits and the gross assets test from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "18f7521a5bf90ddc", "external_value": -55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_and_eis_investment_limits_increased", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "VCT/EIS scheme limits: company-side investment limits with no household base at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5f0f06fdb94700a65564", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Benefit-in-Kind tax easement for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) company cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "615a5c2de453842f24b3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "reform_hint": "Compensation Payments: Post Office Capture Redress Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "715dbdebff0cf2f0", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__compensation_payments_post_office_capture_and_infected_blood", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /compensation|post_office|infected_blood/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compensation schemes for identified individuals; no bundle population.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6163815dbea9b9ed8e4c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,155m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1155000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1155000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "62bccdb2fe49fffa1f78", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-945m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a445f2d6200a2fde", "external_value": -945000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -945000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "67fd1c9381c20c4f76f4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "reform_hint": "Soft Drink Industry Levy: Reduce the levy threshold from 5g to 4.5g/100ml and extend to milk-based drinks and milk substitutes from 1 January 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+40m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8c553b05740aca02", "external_value": 40000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 40000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sdil_threshold_cut_and_milk_based_drinks", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /soft_drink|sugar|sdil|levy/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The Soft Drinks Industry Levy is a producer-side levy; the consumption module has no sugary-drinks category and no levy pass-through.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6ba695e1f9c89fd40f6a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Improve accuracy in Pension Credit claims from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+60m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0f7a59fa2f71ff08", "external_value": 60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|accuracy|review/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_pension_credit_accuracy_reviews", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|accuracy|review/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative accuracy reviews of Pension Credit claims; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6bb880a648d53dea0dcc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Property Income: Introduce separate tax rates for property income at 22% for the property basic rate, 42% for the property higher rate and 47% for the property additional rate, from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+445m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2813c0b5ccaaec98", "external_value": 445000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 445000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 550781262.1694336, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:42.372625+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2377107015043451, "delta": 105781262.1694336 }, "results": [ { "value": 550781262.1694336, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:42.372625+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6bbd7ae91defe83e12ea", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "reform_hint": "Soil and Land Remediation: DEFRA grant scheme to support Local Authority remediation of land", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "973585bb7dde813c", "external_value": 10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__environmental_regeneration_grant_scheme", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /regeneration|remediation|water_company/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Grant scheme for public bodies.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6d338b03a99c33f23888", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Construction Industry Scheme: Strengthen HMRC powers to tackle fraud from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+110m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6edacb41943bea8c679e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'includes no adjustments for behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a Supporting Small Business scheme from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "70228a67a00eafe24ee8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,865m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 1865000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1865000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "71a16bc4d9a75d45a0fb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Child Benefit: Exempt 16\u201319-year-olds with an illness or disability from the 12-hour weekly rule and equalise the treatment of non-standard educational settings from 1 September 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "84a96307fe87e163", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__child_benefit_16_19_illness_disability_12_hour_rule_exemption", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /child_benefit\\.eligibility|qualifying_young_person|twelve_hour|12_hour|hours_of_study/. Parameters: 6 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.child_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.education_or_training_start_age_limit', 'gov.hmrc.child_benefit.eligibility.qualifying_young_person_age_limit']. Variables: 22 ['is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_education_or_training_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_age_condition_for_child_tax_credit', 'meets_qualifying_young_person_entry_condition_for_universal_credit']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Child Benefit's qualifying-young-person conditions exist (education_or_training conditions, age limits) but the 12-hour weekly rule and an illness/disability exemption from it are administrative detail below the survey's resolution: no hours-of-study or non-standard-setting flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "71c711cdacb7e1ded0c8", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Incorporation Relief: Require taxpayers to actively claim incorporation relief to improve compliance from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+115m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 115000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 115000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "73e88d5bed80a3f87184", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "measure_scope": "England and Northern Ireland", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Landfill Tax: Increase the lower rate by the cash increase of the standard rate from 1 April 2026 and in each year of the forecast period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+130m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "aac32edbf6d15db8", "external_value": 130000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 130000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__landfill_tax_lower_rate_increase", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /landfill|waste/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Landfill tax is a producer-side environmental tax with no household incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "789d04efcbdaac15e70d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+11,890m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 11890000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 11890000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 13347079049.836914, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:51.376780+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.122546597967781, "delta": 1457079049.836914 }, "results": [ { "value": 13347079049.836914, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:51.376780+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "78aecce8579d6767c00a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Lifelong Learning Entitlement, confirmation of policy detail for LLE launch on 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": 5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'childcare_grant_student_finance_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7a3694e4817f7d6d05eb", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax adviser non-compliance: Strengthen powers to tackle tax advisers who facilitate non- compliance from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+55m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 55000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7adea7ab0e7ed05d7b03", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit (DB) Pension Scheme Surplus Extraction: Introduce flexibilities for employers and direct payments to members from April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+145m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "015669a22141273f", "external_value": 145000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 145000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__db_pension_scheme_surplus_extraction", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|defined_benefit|scheme/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Employer-side defined-benefit surplus rules; no scheme-level representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7c0cd0f071765d49213f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural change'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Defined Benefit Pensions: Provide inflation protection for pre-1997 pensions in the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and Financial Assistance Scheme (FAS) where members\u2019 former schemes provided it, from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-70m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "program": "pensions", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "88c7abd7b0b1b071", "external_value": -70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ppf_and_fas_pre_1997_inflation_protection", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /ppf|pension_protection|financial_assistance|pre_1997/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Pension Protection Fund / Financial Assistance Scheme indexation of pre-1997 pensions: scheme-specific, no PPF membership flag on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7c0cdf77fc71ae4dd046", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural adjustment is applied'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "No Warm Home Discount parameter or variable at the pin. The GBP 150 rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits is a CONSTRUCTION on benefit receipt using the flat energy_bills_credit lever; the Warm Homes Plan capital funding has no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "Warm Homes Plan: Expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-640m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__warm_homes_plan_and_warm_home_discount_expansion", "program": "energy_bills", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "energy_bills_rebate" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "73425126d26fad13", "external_value": -640000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -640000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7cd5e7fac07ada4b5804", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) emissions regulatory standard changes", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+90m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 90000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 90000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7f98e5b21302a4e16f49", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling Duty: Increase Remote Gaming Duty to 40% from 1 April 2026, introduce a new Remote Betting Rate at 25% (excluding Self-Service Betting Terminals, spread betting, pool betting & UK horseracing) from 1 April 2027, and abolish Bingo Duty from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1885m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a4e6c62716af9e0c", "external_value": 1885000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1885000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "806bf3c2ea24a96c782a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "reform_hint": "Supporting Savers: Make the Help to Save scheme permanent, maintain total ISA annual subscription limit at \u00a320,000 with cash limit reduced to \u00a312,000 for under-65s from April 2027, delay ISA digitalisation until April 2028 and maintain the ISA subscription limits until 2030/31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "program": "savings", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8a3c5181e02b1b9b", "external_value": -15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__supporting_savers_help_to_save_and_cash_isa_limit", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /(^|[_.])isa([_.]|$)|help_to_save|tax_free_savings|subscription/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['tax_free_savings_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No ISA holdings, no subscription flows and no subscription-limit parameter at the pin. The engine has tax_free_savings_income (an income INPUT from tax-free accounts) but no stock of ISA cash, no annual subscription and no under-65 test, so the GBP 12,000 cash-ISA limit and the permanent Help to Save scheme have no lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "80a226ddc2b0600d8514", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Vaping Duty Stamps: Introduce a Vaping Duty Stamps scheme alongside Vaping Products Duty from 1 October 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8203d08e5bbb50f18b1d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "848417f82f0d7b721563", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tax Avoidance: Tighten the company share exchange and reconstruction rules to more effectively target Capital Gains Tax and Corporation Tax avoidance from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+20m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 20000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "848e6997489e25901d3b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Non-derecognition liabilities: Introduce anti- avoidance rule to tackle certain arrangements involving non-derecognition liabilities from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+60m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 60000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8490e078a4b31f3f4b7c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Student Loans: Freeze Plan 2 repayment threshold for three years from 6 April 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+380m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "student_loan_repayment" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.student_loans.thresholds.plan_2" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "09524ad9e271897a", "external_value": 380000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 380000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 496054954.00096226, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T12:27:46.465376+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect read from the head variable(s) student_loan_repayment (receipt), which gov_tax / gov_spending do not carry on the certified engine", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3054077736867429, "delta": 116054954.00096226 }, "results": [ { "value": 496054954.00096226, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T12:27:46.465376+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect read from the head variable(s) student_loan_repayment (receipt), which gov_tax / gov_spending do not carry on the certified engine", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8b4aa1954f79ff577397", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are not significant behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "reform_hint": "Non-reimbursed Homeworking Expenses: Remove the tax relief available from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8b7eaa37d5a74425d938", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Increasing the Immigration Skills Charge (ISC)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+155m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "70f727320ed78ce3", "external_value": 155000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 155000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8ed2c2c008bde105abb3", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+985m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 985000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 985000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "913411363638840acc6a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Extend 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars and electric vehicle charge points to 31 March 2027 for Corporation Tax and 5 April 2027 for Income Tax", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "355f19cf7dfccd5a", "external_value": 25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /first_year_allowance|zero_emission|charge_point|capital_allowance/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax first-year allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "92b6ccc793a61ee28253", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The announcement-baseline leg (#13). Relative to current law the measure is a null change: gov.dwp.pip.* carries the unreformed award rates, and the Spring Statement 2025 four-point daily-living rule was never a parameter, so the world HMT scores against (the abandoned reform) cannot be executed. Scoring it needs the counterfactual world, not a lever.", "reform_hint": "Personal Independence Payment: Not proceeding with Spring Statement 2025 reforms to eligibility", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5,345m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__pip_not_proceeding_with_ss2025_eligibility_reforms", "program": "pip", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d95b6438a110c7", "external_value": -5345000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5345000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "961d0db722a70926b15b", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "reform_hint": "Sizewell C: Reclassify construction costs and recognise income generated through the Regulated Asset Base levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+970m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "05df94b4fe468f2e", "external_value": 970000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 970000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__sizewell_c_rab_levy_reclassification", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sizewell|regulated_asset|rab_levy|nuclear/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Regulated Asset Base levy accounting on energy bills: a classification change; the household bill incidence of the RAB levy is not separated in electricity_consumption.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9725392e303938c132e7", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "reform_hint": "Advanced Corporation Tax (ACT) reform: Abolish shadow ACT restrictions to relax the limits on companies\u2019 use of surplus ACT balances from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8af60005543f8016", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__advanced_corporation_tax_shadow_act_abolished", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /corporation|act\\b|shadow/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Shadow ACT restrictions; business-side corporation tax.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9b4ce351b09fbbf8b782", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Economic Crime (Anti Money Laundering) Levy Rate Increase", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+115m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fc184c3ea908ac", "external_value": 115000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 115000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9cda3ddc58d4a7cee07a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "reform_hint": "Universal Credit: Extend the \u00a32,500 surplus earnings threshold for one year from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29bbf81f8bde7c6f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /surplus|assessment_period|earnings_threshold/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "The surplus-earnings rule is a monthly assessment-period carry-over; the engine models UC on an annual basis with no assessment-period earnings history, and no surplus-earnings parameter exists.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9d499aa82d9250679063", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "reform_hint": "Youth Guarantee: Provide targeted support for young people to earn or learn, including a jobs guarantee, starting from 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact [AME savings only]", "value_verbatim": "+50m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "program": "spending", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "edc1a92f943039e4", "external_value": 50000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 50000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__jobs_and_skills_youth_guarantee_and_levy", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /youth|guarantee|skills_levy|apprentice/. Parameters: 29 node(s) ['gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.additions', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.addition', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.eligibility', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.child.disability.severe.addition']. Variables: 9 ['is_apprentice', 'is_guarantee_credit_eligible', 'guarantee_credit', 'standard_minimum_guarantee', 'minimum_guarantee', 'child_minimum_guarantee_addition']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Youth Guarantee, Growth and Skills Levy and employment support: departmental spending, no household transfer modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9f4957d36cb828ad6001", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "RHL multipliers", "value_verbatim": "-865m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": -865000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -865000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a0643345292d47fdeb00", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects have been taken into account'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit: Reduce the financial cliff edge for claimants in supported housing and temporary accommodation from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-25m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "program": "housing_benefit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d4047f13cf03b341", "external_value": -25000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__housing_benefit_cliff_edge_supported_and_temporary_accommodation", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /supported_housing|temporary_accommodation|exempt_accommodation|housing_benefit\\.means_test\\.income/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker_hours']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No supported-housing or temporary-accommodation tenure flag on the bundle; Housing Benefit income disregards exist as parameters but the population the measure targets cannot be identified.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a225b3676e06ec9f58c6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'There are no behavioural effects anticipated'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "reform_hint": "National Insurance: Remove access to Class 2 National Insurance contributions (NICs) and increase the initial residency and contributions history requirements for Class 3 NICs for individuals abroad from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+15m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "60e7246c2f8564b1", "external_value": 15000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 15000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__nics_class_2_abroad_removed_and_class_3_residency_requirement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /class_2|class_3|voluntary|abroad|contributions_history/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold']. Variables: 3 ['travel_grant_abroad_placement', 'ni_class_3', 'ni_class_2']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Voluntary Class 2/3 contributions by people living abroad; the bundle is UK-resident households and carries no contributions history.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a427022e0f4ce18f3cab", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "reform_hint": "DWP Fraud and Error: Extend Targeted Case Review of Universal Credit to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,265m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2797a7f49790137f", "external_value": 1265000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1265000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__dwp_fraud_and_error_uc_targeted_case_review_extended", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /fraud|error|case_review|targeted/. Parameters: 11 node(s) ['gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[0].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[1].amount', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].threshold', 'gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.age_eligibility[2].amount']. Variables: 8 ['meets_universal_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_working_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible', 'would_claim_targeted_childcare', 'targeted_childcare_entitlement', 'meets_tax_credit_criteria_for_targeted_childcare_entitlement']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative fraud-and-error yield; no parametric representation of case reviews.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a4e0fcaab431832b0687", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Late Filing Penalties: Double late filing penalties for Corporation Tax from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+70m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 70000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 70000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a9a18b90ccfe6128171e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transitional penalties arrangements under Making Tax Digital", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "aaff9096312b45fff221", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "reform_hint": "Venture Capital Schemes: Reduce the VCT scheme Income Tax relief from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1c9d3f34416e9ab6", "external_value": 100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vct_income_tax_relief_reduced", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /venture|vct|eis|investment_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Venture Capital Trust income tax relief is not modelled: no VCT subscription variable and no relief parameter.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ab1f24d6862396f3b2cc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Cap trust charges at \u00a35m for pre-30 October 2024 excluded property trusts for charges applying from 6 April 2025", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-30m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "13057e53f08f34dc", "external_value": -30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -30000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__motability_vat_on_advance_payments_and_ipt", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /motability|insurance_premium|ipt\\b|lease/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No Motability lease, insurance premium tax or scheme-specific VAT base at the pin; Motability participation is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c518e8e5adcfc61e95c6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Transfer Pricing: Introduce a requirement for in- scope multinationals to file an International Controlled Transactions Schedule from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+350m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 350000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 350000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c6d1030dba613eebb2ee", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "reform_hint": "Student Finance: Increase spending on student loans due to a new means-tested maintenance grant offer for students from academic year 2028/29", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-5m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2e2990574b65355b", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__student_finance_lle_launch_and_loan_outlay", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /lifelong|lle|loan_outlay|student_finance/. 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Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Lifelong Learning Entitlement loan outlay: a loan-issuance policy, not a repayment rule; the engine models repayments on income by plan type.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cd2132d725f092344396", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Council Tax: \u00a35 precept flexibility for fire authorities from April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "o/w additional spending", "value_verbatim": "-75m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "29a6027650d6630f", "external_value": -75000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -75000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d1514606b08f31db116c", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'assumes no behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "reform_hint": "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): Remove indirect emissions from scope of the CBAM from 1 January 2027", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-165m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "program": "environmental_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1b2006d2932b127f", "external_value": -165000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -165000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cbam_indirect_emissions_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /cbam|carbon_border|indirect_emissions/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Carbon border adjustment on imports: producer-side, no household incidence path.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d16930d863e10eca7040", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary Sacrifice: Limit the value of salary sacrificed pension contributions that can receive employee and employer NICs relief to \u00a32,000 per year from 6 April 2029", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+5,070m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6405ee1c18d09a53", "external_value": 5070000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 5070000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 2639460463.502075, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:07:06.700311+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5206036417163856, "delta": -2430539536.497925 }, "results": [ { "value": 2639460463.502075, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:07:06.700311+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d4ebdacda9401f73a09f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "reform_hint": "Low Value Imports: Reform the customs treatment of low value imports from March 2029", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+555m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "program": "customs", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "db25b0d137ee6bf8", "external_value": 555000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 555000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__low_value_imports_customs_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /customs|import|low_value/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Customs treatment of low-value imports; no import price incidence module.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d962e4036293804e8734", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural effects'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "reform_hint": "VAT: Introduce a relief for business donations of goods to charity for onward distribution or use in the delivery of their services, from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-10m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "program": "vat", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "faa75a07ff8b16bc", "external_value": -10000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__vat_relief_business_donations_of_goods_to_charity", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /vat|donation|charity/. Parameters: 62 node(s) ['gov.contrib.conservatives.cb_hitc_household', 'gov.contrib.conservatives.pensioner_personal_allowance', 'gov.contrib.labour.private_school_vat', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.private_pension_index', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.UNITED_KINGDOM', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.private_rental_prices.ENGLAND']. Variables: 11 ['private_pension_income', 'private_transfer_income', 'private_school_vat', 'attends_private_school_random_draw', 'attends_private_school', 'full_rate_vat_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Business-side VAT relief on donated goods; household VAT is modelled on consumption only.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "db849dbc0aa1cc6663f7", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Support for British automotive industry: Delay bringing Employee Car Ownership schemes within the Benefit in Kind rules from 6 April 2026 to 6 April 2030, with a two year transition period", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-140m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "82d535fae699c3f1", "external_value": -140000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -140000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dee5831928a6b5ed609a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+2,110m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bb09b1118d3d718e", "external_value": 2110000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2110000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dfe41eee180f8c5808d4", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "reform_hint": "Housing Benefit and Pension Credit Administration: Bring together the administration of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit from Autumn 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+265m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ce483a4cf52b1bf2", "external_value": 265000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 265000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hb_and_pension_credit_administration_brought_together", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /administration|consolidat|merge/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative consolidation of pensioner Housing Benefit and Pension Credit; the yield is a take-up-and-accuracy effect of joint administration with no parametric lever.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e1e0b0d7ab5062fbfe7e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Post-behavioural Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Personal Tax: Maintain the personal income tax and equivalent national insurance thresholds at current levels for a further three years until April 2031", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+12,435m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 12435000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 12435000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 13347079049.836914, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:51.376780+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0733477321943639, "delta": 912079049.8369141 }, "results": [ { "value": 13347079049.836914, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:51.376780+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e22c3b8afe04ef1c3923", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "International Student Levy", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+480m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "211584fb4d098c6a", "external_value": 480000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 480000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e7e20d114c5cc3bf5c0f", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Carer\u2019s Allowance Review: Reassess overpayments from 2015 to 2025 caused by incorrect operational guidance", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "program": "carers_allowance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "638cdb76b2bab859", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__carers_allowance_overpayments_review", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /carer|overpayment/. Parameters: 9 node(s) ['gov.dwp.carer_premium.couple', 'gov.dwp.carer_premium.single', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.min_hours', 'gov.dwp.carers_allowance.rate', 'gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.carer.addition', 'gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.carer.amount']. Variables: 12 ['receives_carers_allowance', 'receives_carer_support_payment', 'receives_carer_benefit', 'is_carer_for_benefits', 'carer_premium', 'num_carers']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Administrative review of historic overpayments (2015-2025 earnings-averaging guidance); no overpayment history on the bundle and no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ea8f633c6f038590d347", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "Capital Gains Tax: Reduce Capital Gains Tax relief on qualifying disposals to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50% from 26 November 2025", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,100m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b7a3c2d481599499", "external_value": 1100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "eb458692964f0a2bb064", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Digital prompts: Invest in new technology to provide taxpayers with real time digital prompts for VAT from April 2027 and Corporation Tax from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+210m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 210000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 210000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ec5b0ee171f6809a43fc", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce a three-year Transitional Relief scheme, partially funded by a 1p Transitional Relief Supplement in 2026/27", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Transitional Relief Supplement", "value_verbatim": "+0m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "917b58d4dec97b3f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_transitional_relief_and_supplement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|transitional|multiplier|rateable/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property business rates schemes; the engine holds only an aggregate business_rates incidence via corporate shareholdings (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.*), not the rating list.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "efa62f3de02664fabd95", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "none: 'No behavioural impacts'", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Fiscally Neutral Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscally_neutral": "yes (offset by DEL / matched spending per the costing note)", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "not_on_table_4_1", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "reform_hint": "Scottish Government Police and Fire Pensions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "-370m" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e053d8b5ab4e74ac", "external_value": -370000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -370000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f01a8db6a44c46afbcd6", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Business Rates: Introduce two new lower multipliers for eligible retail, hospitality and leisure properties funded by a new high-value multiplier from 1 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Small business rates relief and rural rate relief interaction", "value_verbatim": "+105m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "program": "business_rates", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ecc25f2c5daff7f8", "external_value": 105000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 105000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__business_rates_rhl_lower_multipliers_and_high_value_multiplier", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /business_rate|multiplier|retail|hospitality/. Parameters: 4 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.ENGLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.SCOTLAND', 'gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics.revenue.WALES']. Variables: 2 ['business_rates', 'baseline_business_rates']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Per-property retail, hospitality and leisure multipliers; only aggregate business-rates incidence exists at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f1721882c9416b5eb46d", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Static Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High Value Council Tax Surcharge: Introduce a surcharge on owners of residential properties valued over \u00a32m in England from 1 April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+635m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "eee4c69182e785bb", "external_value": 635000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 635000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 551901366.6567383, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); 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no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Penalty Reform: Increase to late payment penalty rate", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+115m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 115000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 115000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f5af7e8bb1ee421b954e", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "document_section": "Closing the Tax Gap Measures", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Making better use of third-party data: Invest to acquire third-party data more frequently for interest and card sales from April 2028", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+465m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9dcfb90927f28515", "external_value": 465000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 465000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f6e6e396f573e079519a", "source": "hm_treasury", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Budget 2025: Policy costings (PU 3595)", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/692872fd2a37784b16ecf676/Budget_2025-Policy_Costings.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "forecast", "behavioural_adjustment": "included (see note)", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_leg_heading": "Exchequer impact (\u00a3m)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "tax_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "national_accounts_basis": "All costings are presented on a National Accounts basis (p.10)", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Dividend Income: Increase tax rates on dividend income by 2ppts at the ordinary and upper rate from 6 April 2026", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer (reduces borrowing); negative = cost to the Exchequer (no legend printed in the document; convention observed from the costings' own wording, e.g. 'yield' rows carry + and 'cost' rows carry -)", "table_row": "Exchequer impact", "value_verbatim": "+1,390m" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5e58b8743cde2414", "external_value": 1390000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 1390000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 979754234.6118164, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:27.267309+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7048591615912349, "delta": -410245765.3881836 }, "results": [ { "value": 979754234.6118164, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:27.267309+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__ets_expansion_to_international_maritime", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UK ETS on maritime routes: an emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin (the contrib carbon tax is a separate, off-by-default lever).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|carbon_price|maritime|shipping/. Parameters: 15 node(s) ['gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.alcohol_and_tobacco', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.clothing_and_footwear', 'household.consumption.carbon.emissions.housing_water_and_electricity']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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"time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "bands F-G +50%, H +100% (gross, before recycling)", "country": "UK", "data": "English council-tax band counts and 2025-26 average bills (technical appendix)", "estimate_kind": "central", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Same construction as the G/H doubling: band-level scaling of council_tax via a modifier, no multiplier parameter.", "reform_hint": "Increase rates by 50 per cent for bands F-G and double the rate for the existing H band", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a33.9 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "council_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b57782315454df04", "external_value": 3900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "df99e0ee40938ac3ff47", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax: Technical 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"ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Same construction as the G/H doubling: band-level scaling of council_tax via a modifier, no multiplier parameter.", "reform_hint": "Increase rates by 50 per cent for bands F-G and double the rate for the existing H band", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a34 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "council_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b57782315454df04", "external_value": 4000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 4000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fa10ba61d00b660173b6", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax (Sriram, Jung)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax (Sriram, Jung)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/articles/towards-a-fair-and-proportional-property-tax", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "recycled to cut bands A-D by 2.7 per cent", "country": "UK", "data": "English council-tax band counts and 2025-26 average bills (technical appendix)", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Same construction as the G/H doubling: band-level scaling of council_tax via a modifier, no multiplier parameter.", "reform_hint": "Lower rates on lower council tax bands, with \u00a31 billion recycled to cut bills for households in bands A-D by 2.7 per cent", "sign_convention": "positive = cost to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a31 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "council_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b57782315454df04", "external_value": 1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "860e3601b72461e02af5", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue / bands A-D", "name": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax: Technical appendix (band multiplier table)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax: Technical appendix (band multiplier table)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/index.php/actions/tools/tools/download-file?id=309669", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "bands A-D cut by 2.7 per cent (recycled \u00a31bn)", "council_tax_band": "A-D", "country": "UK", "data": "English council-tax band counts and 2025-26 average bills (technical appendix)", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Same construction as the G/H doubling: band-level scaling of council_tax via a modifier, no multiplier parameter.", "reform_hint": "Increase rates by 50 per cent for bands F-G and double the rate for the existing H band", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "-\u00a31bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "council_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b57782315454df04", "external_value": -1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3064edecf1d2e314aeb6", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue / bands F-H", "name": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax: Technical appendix (band multiplier table)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax: Technical appendix (band multiplier table)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/index.php/actions/tools/tools/download-file?id=309669", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "bands F-G +50%, H +100% (gross, before recycling)", "council_tax_band": "F-H", "country": "UK", "data": "English council-tax band counts and 2025-26 average bills (technical appendix)", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "England", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Same construction as the G/H doubling: band-level scaling of council_tax via a modifier, no multiplier parameter.", "reform_hint": "Increase rates by 50 per cent for bands F-G and double the rate for the existing H band", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a33.9bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__council_tax_bands_f_g_plus_50pct_h_plus_100pct_recycled_to_a_d", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "council_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b57782315454df04", "external_value": 3900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "192009ab4661ef208540", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "package_total", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "raising remote gaming duty ... from 21 per cent to 50 per cent; raising machine game duty ... to 50 per cent; raising the general betting duty from 15 to 25 per cent with the exception of horse-racing", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "just over \u00a33 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 3000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "1f3d18a77ca178edbc3c", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax (Sriram, Jung)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax (Sriram, Jung)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/articles/towards-a-fair-and-proportional-property-tax", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "central", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "central", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "locator_note": "body-text figure; the summary bullet says around \u00a3120 million", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__non_uk_resident_sdlt_surcharge_2_to_6pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "SDLT on residential transactions exists at the pin, but buyer residence status is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Increasing the surcharge from 2 to 6 per cent", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a3100 million", "year_note": "page says only per year; staged at FY 2026-27" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__non_uk_resident_sdlt_surcharge_2_to_6pct", "program": "stamp_taxes", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8ab2fc64c0793af3", "external_value": 100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__non_uk_resident_sdlt_surcharge_2_to_6pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "SDLT on residential transactions exists at the pin, but buyer residence status is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdlt|non_resident|surcharge|stamp_duty/. Parameters: 141 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount']. Variables: 19 ['non_residential_property_value', 'cumulative_non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_property_purchased', 'lbtt_on_non_residential_property_rent', 'lbtt_on_non_residential_property_transactions']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__non_uk_resident_sdlt_surcharge_2_to_6pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "SDLT on residential transactions exists at the pin, but buyer residence status is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdlt|non_resident|surcharge|stamp_duty/. Parameters: 141 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount']. Variables: 19 ['non_residential_property_value', 'cumulative_non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_property_purchased', 'lbtt_on_non_residential_property_rent', 'lbtt_on_non_residential_property_transactions']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "SDLT on residential transactions exists at the pin, but buyer residence status is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4c4d7dd73ddc95f73d69", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Reform gambling taxes to lift half a million children out of poverty, urges IPPR (press release)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reform gambling taxes to lift half a million children out of poverty, urges IPPR (press release)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/media-office/reform-gambling-taxes-to-lift-half-a-million-children-out-of-poverty-urges-ippr", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "package_total", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "raising remote gaming duty ... from 21 per cent to 50 per cent; raising machine game duty ... to 50 per cent; raising the general betting duty from 15 to 25 per cent with the exception of horse-racing", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a33.2 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 3200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8d0346841684b3e0a966", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "machine_games_duty_to_50_excl_category_D", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase machine games duty (MGD) on all cash-prize paying slot machines from 20 per cent to 50 per cent", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3880 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 880000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 880000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9259353a8aea4b4c0b6b", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax (Sriram, Jung)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Towards a fair and proportional property tax (Sriram, Jung)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/articles/towards-a-fair-and-proportional-property-tax", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "central", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "central", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "locator_note": "summary bullet figure; the body text says around \u00a3100 million", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__non_uk_resident_sdlt_surcharge_2_to_6pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "SDLT on residential transactions exists at the pin, but buyer residence status is not on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Increase the surcharge from 2 per cent to 6 per cent", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a3120 million", "year_note": "page says only per year; staged at FY 2026-27" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__non_uk_resident_sdlt_surcharge_2_to_6pct", "program": "stamp_taxes", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "8ab2fc64c0793af3", "external_value": 120000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__non_uk_resident_sdlt_surcharge_2_to_6pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "SDLT on residential transactions exists at the pin, but buyer residence status is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdlt|non_resident|surcharge|stamp_duty/. Parameters: 141 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount']. Variables: 19 ['non_residential_property_value', 'cumulative_non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_property_purchased', 'lbtt_on_non_residential_property_rent', 'lbtt_on_non_residential_property_transactions']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__non_uk_resident_sdlt_surcharge_2_to_6pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "SDLT on residential transactions exists at the pin, but buyer residence status is not on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /sdlt|non_resident|surcharge|stamp_duty/. Parameters: 141 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[0].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount']. Variables: 19 ['non_residential_property_value', 'cumulative_non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_rent', 'non_residential_property_purchased', 'lbtt_on_non_residential_property_rent', 'lbtt_on_non_residential_property_transactions']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "SDLT on residential transactions exists at the pin, but buyer residence status is not on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b7c6b538bce2389c4e4d", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Fairness first: How the budget can make life better and the economy stronger (Jung, Henry, Quilter-Pinner, Norris, Sriram, Narayanan, Hawkey, Ellis, Parkes)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Fairness first: How the budget can make life better and the economy stronger (Jung, Henry, Quilter-Pinner, Norris, Sriram, Narayanan, Hawkey, Ellis, Parkes)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/articles/fairness-first-how-the-budget-can-make-life-better-and-the-economy-stronger", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "origin": "IPPR's own 6 Aug 2025 gambling report", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "A tax on the harmful, profitable gambling industry, largely targeted at online gambling and slot machines", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a33.2 billion a year" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 3200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4f9b49760fa2c6c15120", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Additional revenue (\u00a3m) / B1", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "machine_games_duty_to_50_excl_category_D", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "machine_category": "B1", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "method": "2023/24 GGY per machine type grown at the most recent annual growth rate to 2026/27 (Appendix 2)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase machine games duty for all machines to 50 per cent, excluding category D", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "72" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 72000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 72000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "64a51a91adaac8828f87", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Additional revenue (\u00a3m) / B3", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "machine_games_duty_to_50_excl_category_D", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "machine_category": "B3", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "method": "2023/24 GGY per machine type grown at the most recent annual growth rate to 2026/27 (Appendix 2)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase machine games duty for all machines to 50 per cent, excluding category D", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "685" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 685000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 685000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "209fecd5baa69670fe4b", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Additional revenue (\u00a3m) / B4", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "machine_games_duty_to_50_excl_category_D", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "machine_category": "B4", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "method": "2023/24 GGY per machine type grown at the most recent annual growth rate to 2026/27 (Appendix 2)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase machine games duty for all machines to 50 per cent, excluding category D", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 6000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 6000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3242b8a17e7f70b606ae", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Additional revenue (\u00a3m) / C", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "machine_games_duty_to_50_excl_category_D", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "machine_category": "C", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "method": "2023/24 GGY per machine type grown at the most recent annual growth rate to 2026/27 (Appendix 2)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase machine games duty for all machines to 50 per cent, excluding category D", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "68" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 68000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 68000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. 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Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8d41192f0339a5833c74", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Additional revenue (\u00a3m) / Total", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "machine_games_duty_to_50_excl_category_D", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "machine_category": "total B1+B3+B4+C", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase machine games duty for all machines to 50 per cent, excluding category D", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "858" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 858000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 858000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. 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Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7d5144fa20bde6ab4b7e", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue estimate 2026/27 (\u00a3bn)", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "package_total", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "raising remote gaming duty ... from 21 per cent to 50 per cent; raising machine game duty ... to 50 per cent; raising the general betting duty from 15 to 25 per cent with the exception of horse-racing", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "3.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 3200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bae28360e00cab0b24db", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue estimate 2026/27 (\u00a3bn)", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "remote_gaming_duty_21_to_50", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase RGD from 21 to 50 per cent", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "1.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 1800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "be52da8c05ca39cf19a9", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue estimate 2026/27 (\u00a3bn)", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "machine_games_duty_to_50_excl_category_D", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase machine games duty for all machines to 50 per cent, excluding category D", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "0.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c4f4b109fb33b76ce72d", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Revenue estimate 2026/27 (\u00a3bn)", "name": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Reforming gambling taxation: How to lift half a million children out of poverty (Parkes, Kumar, O'Halloran)", "url": "https://files.ippr.org/production/Downloads/Reforming_gambling_taxation_August25_2025-08-04-143817_rtlt.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "general_betting_duty_15_to_25_excl_horse_racing", "country": "UK", "data": "Gambling Commission industry statistics July 2025; SMF (Noyes 2025) 2024/25 estimates uprated by GGY growth", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Increase general betting duty, excluding horse racing", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "0.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4fcaa73437fd0ebf9b6c", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Fairness first: How the budget can make life better and the economy stronger (Jung, Henry, Quilter-Pinner, Norris, Sriram, Narayanan, Hawkey, Ellis, Parkes)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Fairness first: How the budget can make life better and the economy stronger (Jung, Henry, Quilter-Pinner, Norris, Sriram, Narayanan, Hawkey, Ellis, Parkes)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/articles/fairness-first-how-the-budget-can-make-life-better-and-the-economy-stronger", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/55", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__boe_apf_indemnity_or_reserves_remuneration_reform", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Central-bank balance-sheet arithmetic; no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "a combination of a reserves income levy and stopping the bank\u2019s active quantitative tightening programme", "sign_convention": "positive = saving against the current budget rule", "value_verbatim": "between \u00a35 and 8 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__boe_apf_indemnity_or_reserves_remuneration_reform", "program": "monetary_fiscal", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5af56eeea08f067", "external_value": 5000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__boe_apf_indemnity_or_reserves_remuneration_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Central-bank balance-sheet arithmetic; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /boe|bank_of_england|reserves|apf|quantitative/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.boe.base_rate', 'gov.hmrc.student_loans.interest_rates.plan_1.boe_margin']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__boe_apf_indemnity_or_reserves_remuneration_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Central-bank balance-sheet arithmetic; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /boe|bank_of_england|reserves|apf|quantitative/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.boe.base_rate', 'gov.hmrc.student_loans.interest_rates.plan_1.boe_margin']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Central-bank balance-sheet arithmetic; no household incidence.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/55" } }, { "claim_id": "8db2a4ea98c3e424e09c", "source": "ippr", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Fairness first: How the budget can make life better and the economy stronger (Jung, Henry, Quilter-Pinner, Norris, Sriram, Narayanan, Hawkey, Ellis, Parkes)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Fairness first: How the budget can make life better and the economy stronger (Jung, Henry, Quilter-Pinner, Norris, Sriram, Narayanan, Hawkey, Ellis, Parkes)", "url": "https://www.ippr.org/articles/fairness-first-how-the-budget-can-make-life-better-and-the-economy-stronger", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/55", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__boe_apf_indemnity_or_reserves_remuneration_reform", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Central-bank balance-sheet arithmetic; no household incidence.", "reform_hint": "a combination of a reserves income levy and stopping the bank\u2019s active quantitative tightening programme", "sign_convention": "positive = saving against the current budget rule", "value_verbatim": "between \u00a35 and 8 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__boe_apf_indemnity_or_reserves_remuneration_reform", "program": "monetary_fiscal", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5af56eeea08f067", "external_value": 8000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 8000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__boe_apf_indemnity_or_reserves_remuneration_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Central-bank balance-sheet arithmetic; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /boe|bank_of_england|reserves|apf|quantitative/. Parameters: 2 node(s) ['gov.boe.base_rate', 'gov.hmrc.student_loans.interest_rates.plan_1.boe_margin']. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__boe_apf_indemnity_or_reserves_remuneration_reform", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Central-bank balance-sheet arithmetic; no household incidence.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /boe|bank_of_england|reserves|apf|quantitative/. 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eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1000444178477307, "delta": 0.07923517893540277 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8712351789354028, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0edbfd1f892d5b36c879", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Alaska, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Alaska", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AK", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "AK", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.751, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.751, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8426544377877417, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1220431927932646, "delta": 0.09165443778774174 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8426544377877417, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9a0457a348a1c163d3b9", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Arizona, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Arizona", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AZ", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "AZ", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.786, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.786, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8392326497444604, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0677260174865908, "delta": 0.0532326497444604 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8392326497444604, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3ca144af251f333a67e0", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Arkansas, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Arkansas", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "AR", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "AR", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.805, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.805, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8705429838224877, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.081419855680109, "delta": 0.06554298382248769 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8705429838224877, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9357938a53b8b8bc1cbf", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): California, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, California", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CA", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "CA", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.774, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.774, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8792310823288946, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1359574707091662, "delta": 0.10523108232889455 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8792310823288946, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "8fe6e6be2dd2e9e5189a", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Colorado, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Colorado", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CO", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "CO", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.773, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.773, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8760171806109114, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.13326931514995, "delta": 0.10301718061091136 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8760171806109114, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "33c0b11211972fff26ce", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Connecticut, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Connecticut", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "CT", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "CT", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.82, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.82, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.673107549495868, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8208628652388635, "delta": -0.1468924505041319 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.673107549495868, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "undiagnosed", "rationale": "[batch3 E2, confidence medium] Connecticut: PE EITC participation 15 points below IRS; the flag-off mass rests on few records that the weight solve does not down-weight", "action_link": "diagnosis/batch3/E.md" } }, { "claim_id": "24384f97d32b17341e5f", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Delaware, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Delaware", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "DE", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "DE", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.824, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.824, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8676041099072023, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0529176091106824, "delta": 0.043604109907202315 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8676041099072023, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "398639e9ebbd8665146a", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): District of Columbia, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, District of Columbia", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "DC", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "DC", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.736, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.736, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8802677032063005, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1960159010955171, "delta": 0.14426770320630056 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8802677032063005, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "92aa1caec795252eb72d", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Florida, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Florida", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "FL", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "FL", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.82, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.82, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9346580673279731, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.139826911375577, "delta": 0.11465806732797312 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9346580673279731, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "38e29938c27e9b529c51", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Georgia, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Georgia", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "GA", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "GA", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.821, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.821, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9429871611847916, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1485836311629618, "delta": 0.12198716118479169 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9429871611847916, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "45dd8ea5b64d47413a04", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Hawaii, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Hawaii", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "HI", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "HI", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.833, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.833, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8379187776385673, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0059048951243306, "delta": 0.0049187776385672954 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8379187776385673, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c08abbf099c5be3f714a", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Idaho, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Idaho", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ID", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "ID", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.807, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.807, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8053556394920525, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9979623785527292, "delta": -0.0016443605079475843 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8053556394920525, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7fddc6674dddd2608777", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Illinois, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Illinois", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IL", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "IL", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.81, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.81, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8852884551161869, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0929487100199837, "delta": 0.07528845511618687 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8852884551161869, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "56b5dda1a05fcfa4833b", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Indiana, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Indiana", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IN", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "IN", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.833, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.833, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8167157539940618, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.980451085226965, "delta": -0.01628424600593814 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8167157539940618, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "08f20530ac3354b47342", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Iowa, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Iowa", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "IA", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "IA", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.807, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.807, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7765797347863288, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9623045040722785, "delta": -0.03042026521367125 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7765797347863288, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4f06df42be291e036aba", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Kansas, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Kansas", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KS", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "KS", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.783, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.783, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8726076324821181, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1144414207945315, "delta": 0.08960763248211812 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8726076324821181, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f0f2034a08df15dbbd58", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Kentucky, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Kentucky", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "KY", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "KY", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.825, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.825, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8511200708696179, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0316606919631732, "delta": 0.026120070869617984 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8511200708696179, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9c0d7c54618426609e3c", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Louisiana, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Louisiana", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "LA", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "LA", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.816, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.816, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8810950035801562, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.079773288701172, "delta": 0.0650950035801563 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8810950035801562, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "15488d7d25263ab31aab", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Maine, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Maine", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ME", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "ME", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.852, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.852, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8196813958362431, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9620673660049802, "delta": -0.03231860416375687 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8196813958362431, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "805531f0389048744a50", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Maryland, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Maryland", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MD", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "MD", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.822, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.822, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8764580193163247, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0662506317716847, "delta": 0.05445801931632477 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8764580193163247, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aeec61da0ef96d61e701", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Massachusetts, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Massachusetts", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MA", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "MA", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.817, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.817, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8181640335527677, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0014247656704622, "delta": 0.0011640335527677292 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8181640335527677, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b76829e6164c5aa80b6a", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Michigan, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Michigan", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MI", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "MI", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.828, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.828, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9621002089281496, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1619567740678136, "delta": 0.13410020892814967 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9621002089281496, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "de7cfb4f8a2900da6951", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Minnesota, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Minnesota", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MN", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "MN", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.819, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.819, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9999531983008486, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2209440760694124, "delta": 0.18095319830084866 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9999531983008486, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "39eb5b816ef4b45388ec", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Mississippi, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Mississippi", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MS", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "MS", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.802, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.802, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9606643737238578, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1978358774611693, "delta": 0.15866437372385778 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9606643737238578, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "739c67477a871d4460a2", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Missouri, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Missouri", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MO", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "MO", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.793, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.793, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8561815710719808, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0796741123228004, "delta": 0.06318157107198075 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8561815710719808, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "029e07d38a3df5aee901", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Montana, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Montana", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "MT", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "MT", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.751, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.751, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8273172394369094, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1016208248161243, "delta": 0.07631723943690938 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8273172394369094, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6778be5ac3ced7fa9738", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): National, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, United States", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.808, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.808, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8801297294390866, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0892694671275824, "delta": 0.07212972943908658 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8801297294390866, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "b82aa1cbd9e59212ad21", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Nebraska, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Nebraska", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NE", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "NE", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.832, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.832, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9185008235315518, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.103967335975423, "delta": 0.08650082353155186 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9185008235315518, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aa8ac59eaf6eae191dbb", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Nevada, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Nevada", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NV", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "NV", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.822, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.822, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8918862180986862, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0850197300470636, "delta": 0.06988621809868623 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8918862180986862, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f52cec37e57e7f56d55c", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): New Hampshire, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, New Hampshire", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NH", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "NH", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7864229546022832, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9830286932528539, "delta": -0.01357704539771687 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7864229546022832, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "07f302f5e17e2c432f18", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): New Jersey, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, New Jersey", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NJ", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "NJ", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.811, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.811, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8290904892393416, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0223063985688552, "delta": 0.018090489239341534 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8290904892393416, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c4b604be0b81db57b9cf", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): New Mexico, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, New Mexico", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NM", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "NM", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.836, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.836, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8047867430039731, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9626635681865707, "delta": -0.03121325699602684 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8047867430039731, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ab06e46405d223e02c2e", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): New York, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, New York", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NY", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "NY", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.837, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.837, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8413678953907784, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0052185130116826, "delta": 0.00436789539077842 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8413678953907784, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bf281a1525fe6c51c037", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): North Carolina, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, North Carolina", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "NC", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "NC", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.797, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.797, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9080754727809794, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.13936696710286, "delta": 0.1110754727809794 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9080754727809794, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "994af2a774851789aa81", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): North Dakota, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, North Dakota", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "ND", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "ND", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.796, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.796, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7645168356656071, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9604482860120692, "delta": -0.03148316433439291 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7645168356656071, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b1d358e8766c12560087", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Ohio, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Ohio", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OH", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "OH", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.826, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.826, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8444470285649296, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0223329643643215, "delta": 0.018447028564929635 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8444470285649296, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ba20651e0785aa0d8d57", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Oklahoma, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Oklahoma", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OK", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "OK", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.791, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.791, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9426972296697523, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1917790514156161, "delta": 0.1516972296697523 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9426972296697523, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "c9a8d2bed3f8bca36cd9", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Oregon, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Oregon", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "OR", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "OR", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.784, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.784, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7928962533039448, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0113472618672765, "delta": 0.008896253303944723 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7928962533039448, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "10aef5149d62a7e2bd1d", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Pennsylvania, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Pennsylvania", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "PA", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "PA", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.828, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.828, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8153600282609679, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9847343336485119, "delta": -0.012639971739032085 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8153600282609679, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5c5638e555ef1bf9f724", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Rhode Island, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Rhode Island", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "RI", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "RI", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.824, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.824, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7868471252904825, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9549115598185468, "delta": -0.03715287470951745 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7868471252904825, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "09057a43236fc4fb27b3", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): South Carolina, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, South Carolina", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "SC", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "SC", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.807, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.807, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9464786424790987, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1728359882021049, "delta": 0.1394786424790987 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9464786424790987, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "a14c6fbdcd94d72cf723", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): South Dakota, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, South Dakota", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "SD", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "SD", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.823, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.823, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8072930612072853, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9809150196929348, "delta": -0.015706938792714675 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8072930612072853, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2cc49b50cbfd8576dd96", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Tennessee, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Tennessee", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "TN", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "TN", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.82, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.82, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9512268548458389, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1600327498119987, "delta": 0.13122685484583896 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9512268548458389, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "1d6fdb20253e0df807a1", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Texas, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Texas", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "TX", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "TX", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.806, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.806, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.906257022673099, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1243883655993785, "delta": 0.100257022673099 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.906257022673099, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "44c58f4dc8e208cea168", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Utah, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Utah", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UT", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "UT", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.754, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.754, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9002050807073093, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1939059425826384, "delta": 0.1462050807073093 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9002050807073093, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "0d4d28d94447970126ef", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Vermont, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Vermont", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "VT", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "VT", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.8, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8951183609477082, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1188979511846353, "delta": 0.0951183609477082 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8951183609477082, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1d6085945242e1a31a31", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Virginia, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Virginia", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "VA", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "VA", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.822, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.822, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.9503759920733211, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1561751728385903, "delta": 0.12837599207332118 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9503759920733211, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch3 E1, confidence medium] PE EITC participation runs high because PE has no EITC non-filers", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1133" } }, { "claim_id": "912a800ca185c084a571", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Washington, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Washington", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WA", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "WA", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.774, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.774, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.864349114315351, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1167301218544585, "delta": 0.09034911431535098 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.864349114315351, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "235774175eb8aa90a11a", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): West Virginia, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, West Virginia", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WV", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "WV", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.851, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.851, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8885577869981386, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0441337097510441, "delta": 0.03755778699813861 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8885577869981386, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a15a4cb141fbd8abe9c8", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Wisconsin, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Wisconsin", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WI", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "WI", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.789, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.789, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.7673839354358573, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9726032134801739, "delta": -0.02161606456414278 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.7673839354358573, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2e42b2f6e86dad8ce319", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): Wyoming, Tax year 2022", "name": "EITC participation rate, Wyoming", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "WY", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "WY", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "acs" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.786, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.786, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8236394651135387, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0478873601953418, "delta": 0.03763946511353866 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8236394651135387, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5288482f2f3b7b5946b1", "source": "irs_eitc_participation", "country": "US", "source_column": "IRS EITC participation rates by state (fetched 2026-10-06): footnote 2, TY2022 CPS national estimate (whole percent)", "name": "EITC participation rate, United States (CPS)", "window": "TY 2022", "publication_title": "EITC participation rates by state", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/tax-professionals/eitc-central/eitc-participation-rate-by-state", "metric": "participation_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2022, "time_basis": "annual", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": "eitc", "conditions": { "geography": "US", "program": "eitc", "rate_unit": "tax_units", "survey_basis": "cps" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.78, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.78, "calibration_relationship": "consumed_as_target", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.8801297294390866, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. The two national figures differ by method, not by year." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.128371447998829, "delta": 0.1001297294390866 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8801297294390866, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "CY2024 tax units, counted through is_tax_unit_head: participants = units with eitc > 0 as served; eligible_tax_units = units with eitc > 0 when takes_up_eitc and would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit are forced True (filers and non-filers); participation_rate = participants / eligible_tax_units. entitled_flag_off / entitled_flag_on_not_paid split the entitled non-participants as served (take-up flag off; flag on but not a filer).", "policyengine_variables": [ "eitc", "takes_up_eitc", "would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit", "eitc_eligible", "eitc_maximum", "eitc_phased_in", "eitc_reduction", "eitc_child_count", "is_tax_unit_head", "state_code_str" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-07T00:25:46.293924+00:00", "annotations": [ "PolicyEngine values are calendar 2024 on the certified data; the IRS State series ends at tax year 2022. Level differences can come from the two-year gap as well as from the models.", "IRS models eligibility from survey income and family data (ACS for States, CPS for the national headline) and reads receipt from IRS records; eligible people include non-filers. PolicyEngine's eligible count is every tax unit with a positive federal EITC when take-up and filing are forced on; its participants are tax units with a positive EITC as served.", "PolicyEngine's EITC claims are calibrated to IRS SOI TY2022 State claims by number of children and to TY2024 national claims, so the rate's numerator agrees by construction. The eligible count is the out-of-sample part of this comparison.", "PolicyEngine's take-up flag is seeded from the National Taxpayer Advocate's TY2016 rates by number of children (65%, 86%, 85% and 82% for none, one, two, three or more), the same in every State, and calibration then reweights the units. Measured: after calibration, PolicyEngine's 2024 rates by number of children are 73.9%, 95.6%, 94.7%, 94.7%.", "The certified data stores would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit as true for every tax unit, so no entitled PolicyEngine unit misses the EITC by not filing; every PolicyEngine non-participant is a unit whose take-up flag is off. IRS counts eligible non-filers as non-participants: 4.6 million of the 5.7 million eligible non-claimants in tax year 2021.", "The State table is ACS-based and its national row reads 80.8% for tax year 2022; IRS calls the CPS-based 78% the reported national estimate for that year. 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This provision is effective 'iia 12/31/24', so FY2026 mixes the TY2025 settlement with TY2026 withholding; PolicyEngine reports the calendar-2026 liability change." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__jcx_producer__obbba_auto_loan_interest", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": -1083160345.3574219, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:chain_pos15:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. This provision is effective 'iia 12/31/24', so FY2026 mixes the TY2025 settlement with TY2026 withholding; PolicyEngine reports the calendar-2026 liability change." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__jcx_producer__obbba_auto_loan_interest", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "[batch2 A3, confidence medium] No tax on car loan interest: qualified-interest proxy uses one year of loan issuance as the TY2026 stock (explains ~15% of the gap; residual open)", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1117" } }, { "claim_id": "104dc5af09aca30514e5", "source": "jct", "country": "US", "source_column": "3. Termination of deduction for personal exemptions other than temporary senior deduction [1]", "name": "3. 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This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/24', so FY2026 mixes the TY2025 settlement with TY2026 withholding; PolicyEngine reports the calendar-2026 liability change." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__jcx_producer__obbba_personal_exemption_termination", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.255829935882883, "delta": 28301186657.043945 }, "results": [ { "value": 149241645907.31738, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.729.0", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z", "release": "f0af251", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:chain_pos03:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/24', so FY2026 mixes the TY2025 settlement with TY2026 withholding; PolicyEngine reports the calendar-2026 liability change." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__f0af251__obbba_personal_exemption_termination", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 214380228203.10742, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.752.2", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701", "release": "l0-refit", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. 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This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/24', so FY2026 mixes the TY2025 settlement with TY2026 withholding; PolicyEngine reports the calendar-2026 liability change." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__jcx_producer__obbba_personal_exemption_termination", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 138926186657.04395, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:chain_pos03:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-15T00:00:00", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/24', so FY2026 mixes the TY2025 settlement with TY2026 withholding; PolicyEngine reports the calendar-2026 liability change." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__jcx_producer__obbba_personal_exemption_termination", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "01304f138bf44f724ef0", "source": "jct", "country": "US", "source_column": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]", "name": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]", "window": "", "publication_title": "Estimated Revenue Effects Relative To The Present Law Baseline Of The Tax Provisions In \u201cTitle VII \u2013 Finance\u201d Of The Substitute Legislation As Passed By The Senate To Provide For Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget", "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/eb21dc77-6439-4fc3-8f5d-fc23a8c377e0/x-35-25.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "usd", "value_kind": "usd", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "US", "program": null, "conditions": { "bill_version": "JCX-35-25", "geography": "US", "provision": "4. Extension and enhancement of increased child tax credit [1]", "row_kind": "provision", "table_section": "Chapter 1: Providing Permanent Tax Relief for Middle-Class Families and Workers" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "12ace32f57dd8364", "external_value": -48769000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "us_signed_change", "external_value_pe_sign": -48769000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -91195453103.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.2.1", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-spm-20260915", "release": "spm-20260915", "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. UNBLOCK: build baseline_k ReformRefs from CBO Jan-2025 Tax Parameters expiry projections (source already cited in the contrib bracket yaml); registered in RUNNABILITY.md.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-10-06T16:22:20.935490+00:00", "annotations": [ "LAST-IN-STACK baseline (vs full current law); JCT scores at stack position 4 (expiry + provisions 1-3) \u2014 baseline_k ReformRef build registered", "PE CY2026 vs JCT FY2026" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.869947161167955, "delta": -42426453103.0 }, "results": [ { "value": -85642146969.64697, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "1.729.0", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-f0af251-703bd81a565c-20260620T201958Z", "release": "f0af251", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:stacked_chained:chain_pos04:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-06-20T20:19:58", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/25', so FY2026 (Oct 2025-Sep 2026) holds only the withholding-year part of the TY2026 effect. JCT's own FY2026 value is 56% of its FY2027 value. PolicyEngine reports one full calendar-2026 liability change: compare with the FY2027 claim." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__f0af251__obbba_child_tax_credit", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" }, { "value": -85857310019.36963, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "1.752.2", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-sparse-l0-refit-57k-71a0887-national-only-20260701", "release": "l0-refit", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:isolated:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-01T00:00:00", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/25', so FY2026 (Oct 2025-Sep 2026) holds only the withholding-year part of the TY2026 effect. JCT's own FY2026 value is 56% of its FY2027 value. PolicyEngine reports one full calendar-2026 liability change: compare with the FY2027 claim." ], "baseline": "pre_obbba_expiry_2026", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" }, { "value": -90628266316.41602, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildi-sparse-rmloss100-6e8e929-20260709T034135Z", "release": "buildi", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:chain_pos04:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-09T03:41:35", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/25', so FY2026 (Oct 2025-Sep 2026) holds only the withholding-year part of the TY2026 effect. JCT's own FY2026 value is 56% of its FY2027 value. PolicyEngine reports one full calendar-2026 liability change: compare with the FY2027 claim." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__jcx_producer__obbba_child_tax_credit", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" }, { "value": -88750704657.55127, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildj-sparse-rmloss100-75d5add-20260710T094201Z", "release": "buildj", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:chain_pos04:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-10T09:42:01", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/25', so FY2026 (Oct 2025-Sep 2026) holds only the withholding-year part of the TY2026 effect. JCT's own FY2026 value is 56% of its FY2027 value. PolicyEngine reports one full calendar-2026 liability change: compare with the FY2027 claim." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__jcx_producer__obbba_child_tax_credit", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" }, { "value": -89064547927.9414, "status": "concept_mismatch", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildo-sparse-rmloss100-22bd902-20260722T232627Z", "release": "buildo", "construction": "reform_delta:income_tax:jcx_stacked:chain_pos04:cy2026_for_fy2026", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-07-22T23:26:27", "annotations": [ "JCX-35-25 reports fiscal-year receipts. This provision is effective 'tyba 12/31/25', so FY2026 (Oct 2025-Sep 2026) holds only the withholding-year part of the TY2026 effect. JCT's own FY2026 value is 56% of its FY2027 value. PolicyEngine reports one full calendar-2026 liability change: compare with the FY2027 claim." ], "baseline": "obbba_stack_below__jcx_producer__obbba_child_tax_credit", "status_effective": "concept_mismatch" }, { "value": -91169531318.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "1.764.6", "data_bundle": "populace-us-2024-buildp-sparse-rmloss100-cae8640-20260728T011454Z", "release": "buildp", "construction": "scored as expiry reversal from enacted law; negated (exact for the same static world pair) | gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.base[0].amount: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.amount.adult_dependent: -> 0; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.individual_max: -> 1000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.refundable.phase_in.threshold: -> 3000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.JOINT: -> 110000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SINGLE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SURVIVING_SPOUSE: -> 75000; gov.irs.credits.ctc.phase_out.threshold.SEPARATE: -> 55000 | RESOLVED AS BASELINE DEFINITION (Max 8/2, issue #13): JCT's provision-4 baseline = expiry world + provisions 1-3 (a constructible ReformRef), not an inherent convention gap. This run scores provision 4 LAST-IN-STACK (vs full current law) \u2014 a different, well-defined baseline. The 1.87 ratio vs JCT's stack position is dominated by interactions with the provisions that differ between the two baselines \u2014 chiefly personal exemptions (present on JCT's expiry side until provision 3 terminates them) and the expiry-side AMT/QBI/SALT rules shaping the liability that limits the nonrefundable CTC. 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Parameters: 63 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.age_threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[0].amount', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[1].amount', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[2].threshold']. Variables: 27 ['is_in_non_advanced_education', 'household_benefits_individual_non_dep_deduction', 'housing_benefit_non_dep_deductions', 'housing_benefit_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible', 'uc_minimum_income_floor', 'uc_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "jrf_pre_ab2025_projection_path", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__uc_protected_minimum_floor_deductions_capped_at_15pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UC deductions (advances, debt repayments, third-party deductions) are not modelled at the pin: no deductions parameter and no deductions variable; the FRR deductions family in this repo is an external-scores lane, not an engine capability.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /deduction|advance|third_party|debt|floor/. Parameters: 63 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.age_threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[0].amount', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[1].amount', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[2].threshold']. Variables: 27 ['is_in_non_advanced_education', 'household_benefits_individual_non_dep_deduction', 'housing_benefit_non_dep_deductions', 'housing_benefit_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible', 'uc_minimum_income_floor', 'uc_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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the FRR deductions family in this repo is an external-scores lane, not an engine capability.", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "The cost of introducing a protected minimum floor on its own", "scotland_treatment": "cost and poverty estimates count the removal of the two-child limit in Scotland as part of the effect (note 2)", "sign_convention": "positive = cost to the Exchequer", "take_up": "UC take-up calibrated to published counts of children impacted by the two-child limit and held constant across scenarios (note 3)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3380 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__uc_protected_minimum_floor_deductions_capped_at_15pct", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "768efd32351426d3", "external_value": 380000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -380000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "jrf_pre_ab2025_projection_path", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__uc_protected_minimum_floor_deductions_capped_at_15pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UC deductions (advances, debt repayments, third-party deductions) are not modelled at the pin: no deductions parameter and no deductions variable; the FRR deductions family in this repo is an external-scores lane, not an engine capability.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /deduction|advance|third_party|debt|floor/. Parameters: 63 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.age_threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[0].amount', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[1].amount', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[2].threshold']. Variables: 27 ['is_in_non_advanced_education', 'household_benefits_individual_non_dep_deduction', 'housing_benefit_non_dep_deductions', 'housing_benefit_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible', 'uc_minimum_income_floor', 'uc_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "jrf_pre_ab2025_projection_path", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__uc_protected_minimum_floor_deductions_capped_at_15pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "UC deductions (advances, debt repayments, third-party deductions) are not modelled at the pin: no deductions parameter and no deductions variable; the FRR deductions family in this repo is an external-scores lane, not an engine capability.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /deduction|advance|third_party|debt|floor/. Parameters: 63 node(s) ['gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.age_threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[0].threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[0].amount', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[1].threshold', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[1].amount', 'gov.dwp.housing_benefit.non_dep_deduction.amount[2].threshold']. Variables: 27 ['is_in_non_advanced_education', 'household_benefits_individual_non_dep_deduction', 'housing_benefit_non_dep_deductions', 'housing_benefit_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible', 'uc_minimum_income_floor', 'uc_individual_non_dep_deduction_eligible']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "jrf_pre_ab2025_projection_path", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "UC deductions (advances, debt repayments, third-party deductions) are not modelled at the pin: no deductions parameter and no deductions variable; the FRR deductions family in this repo is an external-scores lane, not an engine capability.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7978cd132adc51144101", "source": "jrf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Two policies to boost family living standards and reduce child poverty (Schmuecker, Tims)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Two policies to boost family living standards and reduce child poverty (Schmuecker, Tims)", "url": "https://www.jrf.org.uk/child-poverty/two-policies-to-boost-family-living-standards-and-reduce-child-poverty", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "jrf_pre_ab2025_projection_path", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "horizon": "end_of_parliament", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "model_version": "v02_85", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "Removing the two-child limit alone, without introducing the protected minimum floor", "scotland_treatment": "cost and poverty estimates count the removal of the two-child limit in Scotland as part of the effect (note 2)", "sign_convention": "positive = cost to the Exchequer", "take_up": "UC take-up calibrated to published counts of children impacted by the two-child limit and held constant across scenarios (note 3)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a32.8 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e5d553fdbcc04bb8", "external_value": 2800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 2800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "jrf_pre_ab2025_projection_path", "latest": { "value": 1337451105.5802002, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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"value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0b8d5cfd6927f71", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "49e20b67d358480f420d", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "CGT on employee ownership trusts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "CGT on employee ownership trusts", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c96c10ea0d5e9db4", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4bc9dea24514acdccf9d", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:37.570545+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "96c36bb7e9ad2e204a1c", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Dividends", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the basic and higher rates of tax on dividends from April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "static: Dividends", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -869685770.220581, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:02:59.921510+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": -869685770.220581 }, "results": [ { "value": -869685770.220581, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:02:59.921510+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "99953eb7088ffef1387c", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of high value council tax surcharge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of high value council tax surcharge", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-high-value-council-tax-surcharge-costing.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High value council tax surcharge on properties in England valued over \u00a32 million (2026 prices) from April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): This table uses the convention that a negative figure means a reduction in PSNB.", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f75f45255edfa2b7", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:30.695473+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:30.695473+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9acf19ff4418a6f8d758", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "CGT relief on employee ownership trusts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "CGT relief on employee ownership trusts", "uncertainty_rating": "Very High", "value_verbatim": "-182" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c96c10ea0d5e9db4", "external_value": -182000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 182000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9b019f8d3e91ba889410", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = revenue yield (no sign note printed on this table; inferred from para 1.19 'The final costing estimated a central revenue yield of \u00a31.1 billion in 2028-29' matching the +1.1 post-behavioural cell)", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c91b80d09ab6dc83ddcc", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Reduction to the writing down allowance main rate from 18 to 14 per cent from April 2026, alongside a new 40 per cent first-year allowance from January 2026", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1dd776ad05b6da31", "external_value": 100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. 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Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:37.570545+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2026-27: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f84eca7b7c6a0467d942", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Other behaviour", "value_verbatim": "0.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": 100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:45.832745+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -100000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); 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chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:26.562649+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3661f968247ce0560d22", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Great Britain", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "Great Britain", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Removal of the two-child limit within UC from April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter') (this table: positive = higher UC spending)", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "2.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5c861b1639af42f9", "external_value": 2200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -2200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "388a6f5598f5897dca98", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling duty reform", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Gambling duty reform", "value_verbatim": "-1.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a9cce9927e12ddf0", "external_value": -1100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "39974209702a750c0276", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "New mileage-based charge on electric cars from April 2028 (\u00a30.03 per mile battery electric, \u00a30.015 per mile plug-in hybrid in 2028-29, CPI-uprated)", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3a396ca696ec8eb7d7ab", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3dbca68c2651441515ba", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "SEND-related spending judgements", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "SEND-related spending judgements", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "def7645adab37f1f", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4700b2d43db889ff7521", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-non-labour-components-of-incomes-tax-costing.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the ordinary and upper rates of dividend tax from April 2026", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): This table uses the convention that a negative figure means a reduction in PSNB.", "table_row": "Behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -898954399.7271729, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:06.766584+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -1.7979087994543457, "delta": -1398954399.7271729 }, "results": [ { "value": -898954399.7271729, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:06.766584+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "491a70cd40e77b3cd161", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High value council tax surcharge on properties in England valued over \u00a32 million (2026 prices) from April 2028", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f75f45255edfa2b7", "external_value": 100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:38.688067+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -100000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:38.688067+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4b5cda536d175f59e0a8", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Changes to writing down allowances", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Changes to writing down allowances", "value_verbatim": "-1.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1dd776ad05b6da31", "external_value": -1500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "66c1eb4886bfcdd824c6", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Freeze to income tax thresholds (personal allowance, higher-rate and additional-rate thresholds) for 2028-29 to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:26.562649+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2027-28: the measure commences in FY 2028-29 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "698f51e59fffe53952f8", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "CGT relief on employee ownership trusts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "CGT relief on employee ownership trusts", "uncertainty_rating": "Very High", "value_verbatim": "-763" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c96c10ea0d5e9db4", "external_value": -763000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 763000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. 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The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "uncertainty_rating": "High", "value_verbatim": "16" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 16000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -16000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b374d6f3aa15aa94df52", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of high value council tax surcharge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of high value council tax surcharge", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-high-value-council-tax-surcharge-costing.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "measure_scope": "England", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High value council tax surcharge on properties in England valued over \u00a32 million (2026 prices) from April 2028", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): This table uses the convention that a negative figure means a reduction in PSNB.", "table_row": "Behavioural response", "value_verbatim": "155" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f75f45255edfa2b7", "external_value": 155000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 155000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); 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The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "value_verbatim": "-1.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": -1100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6e6f2ee351b71d5f1267", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "package_total", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Direct effects of Government decisions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Direct effects of Government decisions", "value_verbatim": "-1.0" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f390343ec37fb91c", "external_value": -1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6f9900c3e602f77bfcf2", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling duty reform: remote gaming duty 21 to 40 per cent and bingo duty abolished from April 2026; 25 per cent remote betting rate from April 2027", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a9cce9927e12ddf0", "external_value": 600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "71d29ee01588a0cbdb57", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = revenue yield (no sign note printed on this table; inferred from para 1.19 'The final costing estimated a central revenue yield of \u00a31.1 billion in 2028-29' matching the +1.1 post-behavioural cell)", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "-0.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": -200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "77e6af51bb7e484cf2b0", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "block": "existing", "component": "Employee NICs", "counterfactual": "thresholds uprated in line with inflation (Box 3.3: 'Had the PA and HRT instead moved in line with inflation'); yield of all freezes since 2022-23, not the AB2025 pre-measures world", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Existing changes to thresholds (freezes announced before Autumn Budget 2025)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter.", "table_row": "existing: Employee NICs", "value_verbatim": "-0.5" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9d3687887e879ec8", "external_value": -500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "79728b258aff9d4f29da", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "package_total", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Memo: total effect of Government decisions on current budget deficit", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Memo: total effect of Government decisions on current budget deficit", "value_verbatim": "-3.9" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "82fb200ec9ece546", "external_value": -3900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 3900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7ca86558cee9a1ae4f78", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "basis": "unstated", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "march_2026_efo", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Additional rate threshold: reduction", "measure_key": "efo_march_2026__additional_rate_threshold_reduction", "note": "latest re-estimated yield of previously announced personal tax measures", "obr_measure_key": "efo_march_2026__additional_rate_threshold_reduction", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "value_verbatim": "0.995" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "cc6337228ceb9c8d", "external_value": 995000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "latest": { "value": 2029703929.581665, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__additional_rate_threshold_reduction_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:15:56.557450+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__additional_rate_threshold_reduction", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.0399034468157438, "delta": 1034703929.581665 }, "results": [ { "value": 2029703929.581665, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__additional_rate_threshold_reduction_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:15:56.557450+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__additional_rate_threshold_reduction", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7fb714ba27c94079d111", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-non-labour-components-of-incomes-tax-costing.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Reduction in taxable income", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the ordinary and upper rates of dividend tax from April 2026", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): This table uses the convention that a negative figure means a reduction in PSNB.", "table_row": "Reduction in taxable income", "value_verbatim": "0.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -926897621.9467163, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:13.718281+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -4.6344881097335815, "delta": -1126897621.9467163 }, "results": [ { "value": -926897621.9467163, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:13.718281+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "80b4b177945db2f87b78", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary-sacrificed pension contributions above an annual \u00a32,000 threshold no longer exempt from NICs from April 2029", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Post-behavioural costing", "value_verbatim": "0.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": 100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:52.806915+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2028-29: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -100000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:52.806915+00:00", "annotations": [ "not yet in force in FY 2028-29: the measure commences in FY 2029-30 (registry commences_fy) and the reform and baseline worlds are identical in this year; the counterpart is zero", "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "89e32a3e2628fabf9f51", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "package_total", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Memo: direct effect of decisions not on HM Treasury's Autumn Budget 2025 policy decisions table", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Memo: direct effect of decisions not on HM Treasury's Autumn Budget 2025 policy decisions table", "value_verbatim": "2.4" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3c39a4509cf0c827", "external_value": 2400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -2400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8b8fb94b10941c15f2db", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "uncertainty_rating": "High", "value_verbatim": "-1,098" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": -1098000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1098000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8c8b3a3d43ff8bb76bc4", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "basis": "unstated", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "march_2026_efo", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Autumn Statement 2023 NICs reduction", "measure_key": "efo_march_2026__autumn_statement_2023_nics_reduction", "note": "latest re-estimated yield of previously announced personal tax measures", "obr_measure_key": "efo_march_2026__autumn_statement_2023_nics_reduction", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "value_verbatim": "-12.0" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2dd6516101bb2398", "external_value": -12000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "latest": { "value": -13292840621.33057, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__autumn_statement_2023_nics_reduction_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:19:16.678741+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the Class 1 2p and Class 4 1p legs while retaining the later Spring Budget 2024 cuts. The Table 3.17 aggregate also includes Class 2 abolition; that leg is omitted because its counterfactual is not stored and Class 2 is outside the prescribed NICs head." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__autumn_statement_2023_nics_reduction", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1077367184442142, "delta": -1292840621.3305702 }, "results": [ { "value": -13292840621.33057, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__autumn_statement_2023_nics_reduction_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:19:16.678741+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the Class 1 2p and Class 4 1p legs while retaining the later Spring Budget 2024 cuts. The Table 3.17 aggregate also includes Class 2 abolition; that leg is omitted because its counterfactual is not stored and Class 2 is outside the prescribed NICs head." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__autumn_statement_2023_nics_reduction", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8d04fdafd2b5bf9ce129", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "CGT on employee ownership trusts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "CGT on employee ownership trusts", "value_verbatim": "-0.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c96c10ea0d5e9db4", "external_value": -800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b45917a025032d5b3fb6", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "package_total", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Indirect effects of Government decisions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Indirect effects of Government decisions", "value_verbatim": "3.9" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3dc9057d2c26e2e", "external_value": 3900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -3900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b4d1431fccf103894a41", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Tackling construction industry scheme fraud", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "Tackling construction industry scheme fraud", "uncertainty_rating": "High", "value_verbatim": "-130" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "df4df27c100f02bb", "external_value": -130000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 130000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b73aa7c18cbfdd2e3f91", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "New mileage-based charge on electric cars from April 2028 (\u00a30.03 per mile battery electric, \u00a30.015 per mile plug-in hybrid in 2028-29, CPI-uprated)", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Post-behavioural costing", "value_verbatim": "-1.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": -1100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b80451a15d84f86e0829", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-non-labour-components-of-incomes-tax-costing.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the ordinary and upper rates of dividend tax from April 2026", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): This table uses the convention that a negative figure means a reduction in PSNB.", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-1.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": -1200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -1200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -926897621.9467163, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:13.718281+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.772414684955597, "delta": 273102378.0532837 }, "results": [ { "value": -926897621.9467163, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:13.718281+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bd4fc2b83d947c9565e6", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling duty reform: remote gaming duty 21 to 40 per cent and bingo duty abolished from April 2026; 25 per cent remote betting rate from April 2027", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-1.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a9cce9927e12ddf0", "external_value": -1700000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1700000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c18830c05e27d012f7a5", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Freeze to income tax thresholds (personal allowance, higher-rate and additional-rate thresholds) for 2028-29 to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "memo", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Memo: impact of error in costing", "value_verbatim": "-0.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": -200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -4838076868.264832, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); 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The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "New mileage-based charge on electric cars from April 2028 (\u00a30.03 per mile battery electric, \u00a30.015 per mile plug-in hybrid in 2028-29, CPI-uprated)", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d18c6ca81c374076b454", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "reform_hint": "Non-doms: closure of post-departure trade profits loophole", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "Non-doms: closure of post-departure trade profits loophole", "uncertainty_rating": "High", "value_verbatim": "-170" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "program": "trusts", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "188a61e40f69ddc6", "external_value": -170000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 170000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__trust_charges_cap_and_post_departure_trade_profits", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /trust|domicile|non_dom|departure/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Excluded-property trust charges and post-departure trade profits: no trusts, no non-domicile status and no emigration event at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d1f6e96e25452c0a75a5", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-non-labour-components-of-incomes-tax-costing.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the basic, higher and additional rates of savings income tax from April 2027", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): This table uses the convention that a negative figure means a reduction in PSNB.", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-0.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d48cad183e410e", "external_value": -600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1111461379.5609741, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:04:52.756037+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.8524356326016236, "delta": -511461379.5609741 }, "results": [ { "value": -1111461379.5609741, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:04:52.756037+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d482e7352ab353fb68f8", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Pass-through", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Freeze to income tax thresholds (personal allowance, higher-rate and additional-rate thresholds) for 2028-29 to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Pass-through", "value_verbatim": "-0.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": -100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -4838076868.264832, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:35.135337+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 48.380768682648316, "delta": -4738076868.264832 }, "results": [ { "value": -4838076868.264832, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:35.135337+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d5fc646f525c45620e01", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = revenue yield (no sign note printed on this table; inferred from para 1.19 'The final costing estimated a central revenue yield of \u00a31.1 billion in 2028-29' matching the +1.1 post-behavioural cell)", "table_row": "Post-behavioural costing", "value_verbatim": "1.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 1100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d989ca602ce47048fdc2", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "basis": "unstated", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "march_2026_efo", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Spring Budget 2024 NICs reduction", "measure_key": "efo_march_2026__spring_budget_2024_nics_reduction", "note": "latest re-estimated yield of previously announced personal tax measures", "obr_measure_key": "efo_march_2026__spring_budget_2024_nics_reduction", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "value_verbatim": "-12.015" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f363ad6196c85a56", "external_value": -12015000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "latest": { "value": -13923768529.340982, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__spring_budget_2024_nics_reduction_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:20:29.347202+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__spring_budget_2024_nics_reduction", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1588654622838936, "delta": -1908768529.3409824 }, "results": [ { "value": -13923768529.340982, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__spring_budget_2024_nics_reduction_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:20:29.347202+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__spring_budget_2024_nics_reduction", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "da4c9152bc6bfcf33888", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "Incorporation relief reform", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "Incorporation relief reform", "uncertainty_rating": "High", "value_verbatim": "0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "df4df27c100f02bb", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4c449d64d3fd77983556", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "block": "existing", "component": "Income tax (basic, higher and additional rates)", "counterfactual": "thresholds uprated in line with inflation (Box 3.3: 'Had the PA and HRT instead moved in line with inflation'); yield of all freezes since 2022-23, not the AB2025 pre-measures world", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Existing changes to thresholds (freezes announced before Autumn Budget 2025)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter.", "table_row": "existing: Income tax (basic, higher and additional rates)", "value_verbatim": "42.6" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9d3687887e879ec8", "external_value": 42600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 42600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4daecc392ba6aed1287f", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. 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The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a5e90fe8ce637b5e302d", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Savings", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the basic, higher and additional rates of savings income tax from April 2027", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "static: Savings", "value_verbatim": "-0.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d48cad183e410e", "external_value": -600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1175278484.0128174, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:01.082475+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.9587974733546956, "delta": -575278484.0128174 }, "results": [ { "value": -1175278484.0128174, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:01.082475+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aa2a4d42a87396d38b61", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Pass-through", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Freeze to income tax thresholds (personal allowance, higher-rate and additional-rate thresholds) for 2028-29 to 2030-31", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "af7a20a107db8a0e24c5", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "RDEL changes", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "RDEL changes", "value_verbatim": "-0.8" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "70b94efac61450a0", "external_value": -800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "af9eb4a231329ee0634e", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Increases to income tax rates on property, savings and dividends (three measures combined)", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; 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OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:43:57.216916+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Uses Table 3.19's indexed UEL/UPL path (UEL divided by 52). The 3.17 plural line does not disclose a secondary-threshold counterfactual, so that component is missing and the construction is partial." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.529728527304512, "delta": -20588259950.338593 }, "results": [ { "value": -7129492866.602148, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:43:57.216916+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Uses Table 3.19's indexed UEL/UPL path (UEL divided by 52). The 3.17 plural line does not disclose a secondary-threshold counterfactual, so that component is missing and the construction is partial." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c3a8a0075f01b2c9a28c", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Freezes to personal tax thresholds extended for 2028-29 to 2030-31 (income tax thresholds and the NICs secondary threshold together)", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "as worded (positive = yield / reduction in borrowing)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a38.3 billion" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "499ebda786e54c3c", "external_value": 8300000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 8300000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c3f9c3e5df1d576fed28", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "package_total", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Direct effects of Government decisions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Direct effects of Government decisions", "value_verbatim": "-14.8" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f390343ec37fb91c", "external_value": -14800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 14800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c480f772f14600e0f135", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "New mileage-based charge on electric cars from April 2028 (\u00a30.03 per mile battery electric, \u00a30.015 per mile plug-in hybrid in 2028-29, CPI-uprated)", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-1.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": -1600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ca17ff323473f4fc1e5b", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling duty reform", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Gambling duty reform", "value_verbatim": "-1.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a9cce9927e12ddf0", "external_value": -1100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ccc28d1f8611fd8e214a", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Increases to income tax rates on property, savings and dividends (three measures combined)", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; 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chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f75f45255edfa2b7", "external_value": 200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -538656855.5283203, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:53.941429+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -2.6932842776416015, "delta": -738656855.5283203 }, "results": [ { "value": -538656855.5283203, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:08:53.941429+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f0471dacd482cb449b01", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary-sacrificed pension contributions above an annual \u00a32,000 threshold no longer exempt from NICs from April 2029", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-4.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -4900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -4900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -2282579319.3875732, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:59.726204+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.46583251416072924, "delta": 2617420680.6124268 }, "results": [ { "value": -2282579319.3875732, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:06:59.726204+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f0d3b5b833242f2f3a5c", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-non-labour-components-of-incomes-tax-costing.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the basic, higher and additional rates of savings income tax from April 2027", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): This table uses the convention that a negative figure means a reduction in PSNB.", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-0.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d48cad183e410e", "external_value": -600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1175278484.0128174, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:01.082475+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.9587974733546956, "delta": -575278484.0128174 }, "results": [ { "value": -1175278484.0128174, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:05:01.082475+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f23b609743f2a372ee40", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling duty reform: remote gaming duty 21 to 40 per cent and bingo duty abolished from April 2026; 25 per cent remote betting rate from April 2027", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-1.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a9cce9927e12ddf0", "external_value": -1800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f50fb6f7f040cf050edf", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Mileage-based charge on electric cars", "value_verbatim": "-1.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": -1400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f5bf98416b73d7a0ef05", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "block": "total", "counterfactual": "thresholds uprated in line with inflation (Box 3.3: 'Had the PA and HRT instead moved in line with inflation'); 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vehicle purchases are not on the bundle (the SMF's grant-adjusted figure is an OBR restatement).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_car_grant|charging|grant/. Parameters: 13 node(s) ['gov.dfe.adult_dependants_grant.income_limit', 'gov.dfe.adult_dependants_grant.maximum', 'gov.dfe.adult_dependants_grant.other_adult_income_limit', 'gov.dfe.childcare_grant.coverage_rate', 'gov.dfe.childcare_grant.eligible_child.max_age.special_educational_needs', 'gov.dfe.childcare_grant.eligible_child.max_age.standard']. Variables: 33 ['education_grants', 'adult_dependants_grant_other_adult_income', 'adult_dependants_grant_adult_receives_student_finance', 'adult_dependants_grant_has_other_adult_dependant', 'adult_dependants_grant', 'would_claim_adult_dependants_grant']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__electric_car_grant_and_charging_infrastructure", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Purchase grant and charging capital; vehicle purchases are not on the bundle (the SMF's grant-adjusted figure is an OBR restatement).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_car_grant|charging|grant/. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Purchase grant and charging capital; vehicle purchases are not on the bundle (the SMF's grant-adjusted figure is an OBR restatement).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "04cb5dbc5611a452e57f", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Tax administration, compliance and debt collection", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Tax administration, compliance and debt collection", "value_verbatim": "-2.5" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "436234fdc3bfd3c2", "external_value": -2500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 2500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "04cbb2dfaa0e0b2a91bf", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "06251b8ddea06d5625ca", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "employee NICs primary threshold/lower profits limit alignment with the PA and subsequent freeze", "counterfactual": "thresholds uprated in line with inflation (Box 3.3: 'Had the PA and HRT instead moved in line with inflation'); yield of all freezes since 2022-23, not the AB2025 pre-measures world", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Employee NICs threshold changes since March 2022 (alignment with the PA, then freezes)", "sign_convention": "as worded (positive = yield / reduction in borrowing)", "value_verbatim": "negative at \u00a30.4 billion" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a817a6a6bcbff848", "external_value": -400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0cac6b5738b503f293e5", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "basis": "unstated", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "march_2026_efo", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Autumn Budget 2024 employer NICs rise", "measure_key": "efo_march_2026__autumn_budget_2024_employer_nics_rise", "note": "latest re-estimated yield of previously announced personal tax measures", "obr_measure_key": "efo_march_2026__autumn_budget_2024_employer_nics_rise", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "value_verbatim": "29.355" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b88f02fa603450f1", "external_value": 29355000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "latest": { "value": 26639168076.054092, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__autumn_budget_2024_employer_nics_rise_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:21:44.806665+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold. 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the engine expresses award rates and eligibility, not assessment throughput.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /assessment|reassess|award_review|wca/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2e4981393b33706d6940", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_total_policy_decisions", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The package total sums measures the household model cannot express (business taxes, administrative yields, departmental spending). A PE package number is the sum of the expressible household legs only, stated as constructed with the omitted lines listed; it is never compared to the Table 4.1 total as if like-for-like.", "reform_hint": "Memo: direct effect of decisions on HM Treasury's Autumn Budget 2025 policy decisions table", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Memo: direct effect of decisions on HM Treasury's Autumn Budget 2025 policy decisions table", "value_verbatim": "-24.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_total_policy_decisions", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "224dee5ad82f5bdf", "external_value": -24100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 24100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "301181084ed1ff0b0795", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "package_total", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Indirect effects of Government decisions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Indirect effects of Government decisions", "value_verbatim": "5.4" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3dc9057d2c26e2e", "external_value": 5400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -5400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3379435e376edda5dbe9", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary-sacrificed pension contributions above an annual \u00a32,000 threshold no longer exempt from NICs from April 2029", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:07:06.700311+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "34639ae9ad15d7d6b191", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Property", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the basic, higher and additional rates of property income tax from April 2027", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "49bea09e201d9b1e4488", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook March 2026 - detailed forecast tables: receipts", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/d055fbf02d5b3g6jq8l2/efo-march-2026-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "basis": "unstated", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "march_2026_efo", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "line_item": "Class 1 NICs: threshold freezes", "measure_key": "efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes", "note": "latest re-estimated yield of previously announced personal tax measures", "obr_measure_key": "efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "value_verbatim": "14.150297966704203" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4fa6b51d57ddb8b0", "external_value": 14150297966.704203, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "no_stated_convention", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_announcement_baseline_efo_march_2026", "latest": { "value": -7296023384.202045, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:10:05.394359+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Uses Table 3.19's indexed UEL/UPL path (UEL divided by 52). The 3.17 plural line does not disclose a secondary-threshold counterfactual, so that component is missing and the construction is partial." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.5156091695997966, "delta": -21446321350.90625 }, "results": [ { "value": -7296023384.202045, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:10:05.394359+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Uses Table 3.19's indexed UEL/UPL path (UEL divided by 52). The 3.17 plural line does not disclose a secondary-threshold counterfactual, so that component is missing and the construction is partial." ], "baseline": "pre_efo_march_2026__class_1_nics_threshold_freezes", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4b2bfe251429301a9e0a", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Other tax measures", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Other tax measures", "value_verbatim": "-4.6" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fe960ae2f54191a1", "external_value": -4600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 4600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4d1ae82ce6e92ca2c432", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "income tax freezes at the basic, higher and additional rates (all since 2022-23)", "counterfactual": "thresholds uprated in line with inflation (Box 3.3: 'Had the PA and HRT instead moved in line with inflation'); yield of all freezes since 2022-23, not the AB2025 pre-measures world", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "All income tax threshold freezes (existing changes plus November 2025 measures)", "sign_convention": "as worded (positive = yield / reduction in borrowing)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a356 billion" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "ab7836e126f8572a", "external_value": 56000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 56000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4ec41b91f324a36dd0a3", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = revenue yield (no sign note printed on this table; inferred from para 1.19 'The final costing estimated a central revenue yield of \u00a31.1 billion in 2028-29' matching the +1.1 post-behavioural cell)", "table_row": "Post-behavioural costing", "value_verbatim": "1.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 1900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4fec6a586b2badfa132e", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Employers switching to ordinary contributions", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Salary-sacrificed pension contributions above an annual \u00a32,000 threshold no longer exempt from NICs from April 2029", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:42.372625+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6556f7a968c0186d34dc", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Increases to income tax rates on property, savings and dividends (three measures combined)", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-2.4" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d504498c15cc61cf", "external_value": -2400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 2400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6711b3be826b4c8bd7d5", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "CGT relief on employee ownership trusts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "CGT relief on employee ownership trusts", "uncertainty_rating": "Very High", "value_verbatim": "-972" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c96c10ea0d5e9db4", "external_value": -972000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 972000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "67f738dcccd7cc173e55", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Great Britain", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "Great Britain", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Removal of the two-child limit within UC from April 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter') (this table: positive = higher UC spending)", "table_row": "Post-behavioural costing", "value_verbatim": "3.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5c861b1639af42f9", "external_value": 3100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -3100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "68065ec482e8aaccd419", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of changes to non-labour components of income tax", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-non-labour-components-of-incomes-tax-costing.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the ordinary and upper rates of dividend tax from April 2026", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): This table uses the convention that a negative figure means a reduction in PSNB.", "table_row": "Behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -979754234.6118164, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:27.267309+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": -979754234.6118164 }, "results": [ { "value": -979754234.6118164, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:03:27.267309+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6897accd851cb256a190", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = revenue yield (no sign note printed on this table; inferred from para 1.19 'The final costing estimated a central revenue yield of \u00a31.1 billion in 2028-29' matching the +1.1 post-behavioural cell)", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "-0.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": -200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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No mechanics are invented.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2030 would proxy OBR FY 2030-31.", "Head mapping unavailable for Total; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The Class 2 parameters exist, but PE-UK does not retain the required indexed counterfactual path for this 3.17 re-estimate. Class 2 is also outside the lane brief's prescribed broad NICs aggregate. No mechanics are invented.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=obr_efo_forecast; basis=unstated; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2030 would proxy OBR FY 2030-31.", "Head mapping unavailable for Total; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b016f5f485e6460938ca", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling duty reform: remote gaming duty 21 to 40 per cent and bingo duty abolished from April 2026; 25 per cent remote betting rate from April 2027", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Post-behavioural costing", "value_verbatim": "-1.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a9cce9927e12ddf0", "external_value": -1200000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1200000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b16d6a8c866ed33b58e4", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "reform_hint": "Reduction to the writing down allowance main rate from 18 to 14 per cent from April 2026, alongside a new 40 per cent first-year allowance from January 2026", "scoring_method": "post_behavioural", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Post-behavioural costing", "value_verbatim": "-1.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "program": "corporation_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1dd776ad05b6da31", "external_value": -1500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /writing_down|capital_allowance|first_year_allowance|corporation/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 1 ['capital_allowances']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Corporation tax capital allowances; business-side.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b219b93b788baacd2c26", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "NICs on salary-sacrificed pensions contributions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "NICs on salary-sacrificed pensions contributions", "value_verbatim": "-2.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -2600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -2600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -2639460463.502075, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:07:06.700311+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.015177101346952, "delta": -39460463.502075195 }, "results": [ { "value": -2639460463.502075, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:07:06.700311+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it", "null registry values executed as 1e+100 (no limit): gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b542d717de6858d705e8", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "High value council tax surcharge", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "High value council tax surcharge", "value_verbatim": "-0.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "program": "council_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "high_value_council_tax_surcharge" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[1].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[2].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[3].amount", "gov.hmrc.council_tax.high_value_surcharge.amount[4].amount" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f75f45255edfa2b7", "external_value": -400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -551901366.6567383, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:09:02.182259+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3797534166418457, "delta": -151901366.65673828 }, "results": [ { "value": -551901366.6567383, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:09:02.182259+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__high_value_council_tax_surcharge", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b580a419531fb33de5ce", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "block": "existing", "counterfactual": "thresholds uprated in line with inflation (Box 3.3: 'Had the PA and HRT instead moved in line with inflation'); yield of all freezes since 2022-23, not the AB2025 pre-measures world", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Existing changes to thresholds (freezes announced before Autumn Budget 2025)", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter.", "table_row": "Existing changes to thresholds", "value_verbatim": "53.8" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9d3687887e879ec8", "external_value": 53800000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 53800000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_box_3_3_thresholds_indexed_with_inflation", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b654cbf0d63963d51cee", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Savings", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "2 percentage point increase to the basic, higher and additional rates of savings income tax from April 2027", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; 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artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:42.372625+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": -550781262.1694336 }, "results": [ { "value": -550781262.1694336, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__property_income_separate_rates); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__property_income_separate_rates_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:01:42.372625+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d89db77252e4a27ad7fb", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "New mileage-based charge on electric cars from April 2028 (\u00a30.03 per mile battery electric, \u00a30.015 per mile plug-in hybrid in 2028-29, CPI-uprated)", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "-2.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": -2100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 2100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d9178c0389c7c3c1c085", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "reform_hint": "Gambling duty reform: remote gaming duty 21 to 40 per cent and bingo duty abolished from April 2026; 25 per cent remote betting rate from April 2027", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in borrowing (no note printed on this table; chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Direct behavioural effect", "value_verbatim": "0.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a9cce9927e12ddf0", "external_value": 700000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -700000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__gambling_duties_rgd_40_remote_betting_25", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|horserace|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming variable at the pin; the consumption module carries LCFS categories (alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, recreation_consumption) with no gambling split, and the duty is levied on operators' gross gaming yield, not on a household base the engine holds.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d93336e76db63f76fd52", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "reform_hint": "HMRC use of third party data", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_41_head": "Tax", "table_row": "HMRC use of third party data", "uncertainty_rating": "High", "value_verbatim": "-442" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "program": "administration", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "df4df27c100f02bb", "external_value": -442000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 442000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__hmrc_further_measures_to_close_the_tax_gap", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /tax_gap|compliance|enforcement/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Compliance yield from HMRC operational investment; no parametric representation.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d9cd33746c8920eefc16", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, 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chapter convention per the Table 3.1 note 'A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing' and the Box 3.3 Table A note 'Here we present higher taxes as positive numbers, in contrast to the tables elsewhere in this chapter')", "table_row": "Memo: impact of error in costing", "value_verbatim": "-0.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": -600000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": -600000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -13347079049.836914, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:51.376780+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 22.24513174972819, "delta": -12747079049.836914 }, "results": [ { "value": -13347079049.836914, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "delta_on_modified_baseline on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:49:51.376780+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect = \u0394gov_tax \u2212 \u0394gov_spending on the certified world", "claim sign: positive = cost / increase in borrowing; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fa346ab10b01ab8ee583", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "static", "sign_convention": "positive = revenue yield (no sign note printed on this table; inferred from para 1.19 'The final costing estimated a central revenue yield of \u00a31.1 billion in 2028-29' matching the +1.1 post-behavioural cell)", "table_row": "Static costing", "value_verbatim": "2.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 2100000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2100000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fb9a5993b983f6fefc44", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "aggregation_level": "measure_or_group", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "reform_hint": "CGT on employee ownership trusts", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "CGT on employee ownership trusts", "value_verbatim": "-1.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "program": "capital_gains_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c96c10ea0d5e9db4", "external_value": -1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__cgt_employee_ownership_trust_relief_cut_to_50pct", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /employee_ownership|eot|cgt|capital_gains|relief/. Parameters: 36 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate', 'gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_contribution.basic_amount']. Variables: 11 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'capital_gains', 'capital_gains_behavioural_response', 'relative_capital_gains_mtr_change', 'capital_gains_before_response', 'marginal_tax_rate_on_capital_gains']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Disposals to employee ownership trusts are business disposals; capital_gains is a single realised-gains variable with no disposal type or relief split.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "fd411306fcfc68075d95", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation_level": "package_total", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "Direct effects of Government decisions", "scoring_method": "final", "sign_convention": "Note (verbatim): A positive sign implies an increase in borrowing.", "table_row": "Direct effects of Government decisions", "value_verbatim": "-18.0" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f390343ec37fb91c", "external_value": -18000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": 18000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ce57b7a1e62852590251", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "average per subsequent year", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation": "average per year 2027-28 to 2030-31", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Five-month freeze to fuel duty rates until September 2026 then staggered reversal of the 5p cut; RPI uprating from April 2027", "sign_convention": "as worded (positive = cost / increase in borrowing)", "value_verbatim": "an average of \u00a30.9 billion" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", "program": "fuel_duty", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "fuel_duty" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e86929abeeeaeab8", "external_value": 900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 222428230.3647461, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27); 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The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "share_of_static_yield": "3.0 per cent", "sign_convention": "as worded: reduction in the static yield (positive = reduction in yield)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a360 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 60000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:not_this_quantity", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5ab958309d8f102b7f5c", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "medium term, per year", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregation": "per year in the medium term", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "cash receipts from higher repayments and interest", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Freeze to the repayments and interest rate thresholds for Plan 2 student loan repayments for three years from 2027-28", "sign_convention": "as worded (positive = yield / reduction in borrowing)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a30.4 billion a year" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "program": "student_loans", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "student_loan_repayment" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.student_loans.thresholds.plan_2" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d57402691db99f85", "external_value": 400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 496054954.00096226, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T12:27:46.465376+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect read from the head variable(s) student_loan_repayment (receipt), which gov_tax / gov_spending do not carry on the certified engine", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2401373850024056, "delta": 96054954.00096226 }, "results": [ { "value": 496054954.00096226, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T12:27:46.465376+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "PE static exchequer effect read from the head variable(s) student_loan_repayment (receipt), which gov_tax / gov_spending do not carry on the certified engine", "claim sign: positive = yield to the Exchequer, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__student_loans_plan2_threshold_freeze", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f1d1ffe8b77386047717", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "non-compliance 2030-31", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED non-compliance (98.5 per cent compliance rate)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "share_of_static_yield": "1.4 per cent", "sign_convention": "as worded: reduction in the static yield (positive = reduction in yield)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a330 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 30000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:not_this_quantity", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2d194c4fc225b4d60901", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "purchasing response 2030-31", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "fewer electric car purchases (after other Budget measures and other tax heads)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "eVED: new mileage-based charge on battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars from April 2028", "scoring_method": "behavioural_effect", "share_of_static_yield": "7.1 per cent", "sign_convention": "as worded: reduction in the static yield (positive = reduction in yield)", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3150 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 150000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "unknown", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:not_this_quantity", "external_value_pe_sign": null, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "69b228d51c15e673d746", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2050-51", "name": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Economic and fiscal outlook \u2013 November 2025", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2051, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "assumption": "more than 90 per cent of cars on the road fully electric; all new car sales zero-emission by 2035 (footnote 21)", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2050-51", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "price_basis": "today's prices", "reform_hint": "Mileage-based charge on battery and plug-in hybrid cars, long-run projection on stated Government policy", "sign_convention": "as worded (positive = yield / reduction in borrowing)", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a37 billion in today\u2019s prices" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d464f97c32a8fdfc", "external_value": 7000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 7000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f37810903817ab2f0c16", "source": "obr_efo", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2050-51", "name": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Supplementary forecast information release: Costing of eVED: a new mileage-based charge on electric and plug-in hybrid cars (updated 3 September 2026)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-eVED-costing-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2051, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "assumption": "around 90 per cent of cars on the road projected to be fully electric", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2050-51", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. 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PE's would_claim_child_benefit is fixed in this static run, so the PE child_benefit delta is zero." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1b7fe901fe3b3a5f368d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "1.1614361788518344" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": 1161436.1788518343, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1161436.1788518343, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1bedd8d3aef3c7347c30", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "1.5111186896592081" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 1511118.689659208, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1511118.689659208, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1fa8e0fee8654913e3e0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "243ab1c4b1e8b747940d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "-0.27029792712643025" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -270297.92712643027, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -270297.92712643027, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "26dfbc0353bbdd682ae1", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-9619.251699103523" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d32461d1f518da75", "external_value": -9619251699.103523, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -9619251699.103523, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -12070073648.808764, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:35:21.293392+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2547830149754422, "delta": -2450821949.7052402 }, "results": [ { "value": -12070073648.808764, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:35:21.293392+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2720abefcb9067a7283d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "318.7795630547339" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d32461d1f518da75", "external_value": 318779563.0547339, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 318779563.0547339, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:35:21.293392+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -318779563.0547339 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:35:21.293392+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "273dea00cdc05839e8d9", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "3.392714563213293" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 3392714.563213293, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3392714.563213293, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; 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No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "6.093086084517308" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 6093086.0845173085, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 6093086.0845173085, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3beae90bb7db07c5bf1f", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-57.88132534042767" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": -57881325.340427674, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -57881325.340427674, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "40355fe43f50a07b2cfc", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:39:42.634830+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:39:42.634830+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "40522ca225de534d4f26", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "497f838651b37ebeeec5", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-261.4603221318944" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fd10f381813243", "external_value": -261460322.13189438, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -261460322.13189438, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4c400391def88cda2d9d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-1672.203" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0a67ec2728bca53f", "external_value": -1672203000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1672203000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1374884384.7363591, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:44:11.982657+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = winter_fuel_allowance; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8221994487130804, "delta": 297318615.2636409 }, "results": [ { "value": -1374884384.7363591, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:44:11.982657+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = winter_fuel_allowance; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4c58c520e5f7480c9e6e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare outside cap", "value_verbatim": "-480.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5c861b1639af42f9", "external_value": -480000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -480000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4e0cd6771a594152d3ca", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "12.431759575112478" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fd10f381813243", "external_value": 12431759.575112479, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 12431759.575112479, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 15403093.633636475, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:36:26.358396+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.239011544630609, "delta": 2971334.058523996 }, "results": [ { "value": 15403093.633636475, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:36:26.358396+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5244e74f9119514b7d1e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-1886.715" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5c861b1639af42f9", "external_value": -1886715000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1886715000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1104248292.8024673, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:47:33.683484+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Unmapped OBR heads: Welfare outside cap." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5852756207495394, "delta": 782466707.1975327 }, "results": [ { "value": -1104248292.8024673, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:47:33.683484+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Unmapped OBR heads: Welfare outside cap." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5557fd1e13078e8717e4", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-132.18390209964178" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": -132183902.09964179, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -132183902.09964179, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "562720153a193e85ca09", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "335.59751839493276" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 335597518.39493275, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 335597518.39493275, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 892986096.3162842, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:39:42.634830+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.6608840869479073, "delta": 557388577.9213514 }, "results": [ { "value": 892986096.3162842, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:39:42.634830+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "58fe098fca76ea5142e7", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5c30232035f43ffa39ef", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Tobacco duty", "value_verbatim": "14.437147955229523" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 14437147.955229523, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 14437147.955229523, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Tobacco duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Tobacco duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5fce77c72fffb10e9753", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Customs duty", "value_verbatim": "5.853548977112083" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 5853548.977112083, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5853548.977112083, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Customs duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Customs duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "61f48dc1f741bd0e1d1b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "624a40ad6547c8af294a", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; 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The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:45:21.324936+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "640b9a3a5abcaa93fc1b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6e7b9cca31fca2d0193b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-358.39985008761914" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": -358399850.0876191, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -358399850.0876191, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. 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raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:45:21.324936+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:45:21.324936+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "72a983b798063ebcdcb1", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-394.59130994431405" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d32461d1f518da75", "external_value": -394591309.94431406, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -394591309.94431406, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "76de05ad1c3565ad14f0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "141.92108768720072" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 141921087.68720073, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 141921087.68720073, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Income tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Income tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "774362a57e18bce5701d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", "value_verbatim": "60.798604675213376" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": 60798604.675213374, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 60798604.675213374, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Inheritance tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Inheritance tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "79373b4b627f4b9461fb", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_standard_and_health_protections", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-240.8425" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4c600f3a70cf3d81", "external_value": -240842500.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -240842500.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "79a080c16dda70dfec41", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-22.05992630030609" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": -22059926.30030609, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -22059926.30030609, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "79bfced3e8e23279de4c", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-9343.022622888573" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": -9343022622.888573, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -9343022622.888573, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -12070073648.808764, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:33:00.016582+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2918810256585969, "delta": -2727051025.920191 }, "results": [ { "value": -12070073648.808764, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:33:00.016582+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7c54937962cd854d2766", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": 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"claim_id": "a241399654e3bb97a8ed", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "23923.34205364956" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": 23923342053.649563, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 23923342053.649563, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 24754424875.897583, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:38:33.651628+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0347394114243849, "delta": 831082822.2480202 }, "results": [ { "value": 24754424875.897583, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:38:33.651628+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a2ec94a76116bf047a7d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a9c4ef60ad0e26322a31", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "190.8104138027605" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fd10f381813243", "external_value": 190810413.8027605, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 190810413.8027605, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:36:26.358396+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -190810413.8027605 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:36:26.358396+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ac04874bf2578560e586", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Alcohol duty", "value_verbatim": "5.7850990479314195" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 5785099.04793142, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5785099.04793142, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Alcohol duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Alcohol duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ac72ee36e27e8a808f78", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "0.5385540185143711" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": 538554.0185143711, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 538554.0185143711, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aef19f40dbc39b078f87", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-10.729860902800937" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -10729860.902800936, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10729860.902800936, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:43:03.881868+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 10729860.902800936 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:43:03.881868+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b0be28199c73eae1b834", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-25.370811479555872" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -25370811.47955587, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -25370811.47955587, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:43:03.881868+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 25370811.47955587 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:43:03.881868+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bdf4a7973c3db08becd1", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c0ab32bcf6c18ecdc0f6", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c1fd268fbe8b4b1d57e6", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "171.89191998605588" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d32461d1f518da75", "external_value": 171891919.98605588, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 171891919.98605588, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 104678630.74134064, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:35:21.293392+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6089793560385638, "delta": -67213289.24471524 }, "results": [ { "value": 104678630.74134064, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:35:21.293392+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c596699eea5f24297bd1", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "171.41066303096537" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": 171410663.03096536, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 171410663.03096536, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 104678630.74134064, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:33:00.016582+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.610689142030974, "delta": -66732032.28962472 }, "results": [ { "value": 104678630.74134064, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:33:00.016582+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c613805a64a85c61699a", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:45:21.324936+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:45:21.324936+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cba1ef9661ea5a68f5fb", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-186.66169494794963" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": -186661694.94794962, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -186661694.94794962, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ce437f7b6b9650dcd1ed", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "3.194839600493571" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d48cad183e410e", "external_value": 3194839.600493571, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3194839.600493571, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:41:55.783987+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at \u00a35,000, but PE's parameter is constant at \u00a35,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -3194839.600493571 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:41:55.783987+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at \u00a35,000, but PE's parameter is constant at \u00a35,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d1c9602f3d14ce2b0f0b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "133.72731052195903" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": 133727310.52195902, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 133727310.52195902, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d209cae34ede069c2305", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-250.0" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "child_benefit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_end", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_start" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7ef154fddbe9a1a5", "external_value": -250000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -250000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1720629444.0709229, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:37:28.073663+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. PE's would_claim_child_benefit is fixed in this static run, so the PE child_benefit delta is zero." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 6.8825177762836915, "delta": -1470629444.0709229 }, "results": [ { "value": -1720629444.0709229, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:37:28.073663+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. PE's would_claim_child_benefit is fixed in this static run, so the PE child_benefit delta is zero." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d67cc81ee0956222cfcd", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-699.5209274729086" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fd10f381813243", "external_value": -699520927.4729086, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -699520927.4729086, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1167913753.6299438, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:36:26.358396+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.6695908696386719, "delta": -468392826.15703523 }, "results": [ { "value": -1167913753.6299438, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:36:26.358396+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d81ce2a20bb9aa22e046", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "684.4304843659679" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": 684430484.3659679, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 684430484.3659679, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:33:00.016582+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -684430484.3659679 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:33:00.016582+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. 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no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Income tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ea88764d1ea39561631e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-410.0150385887736" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": -410015038.5887736, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -410015038.5887736, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ef8d1d6e46e9d7d19c8e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:46:26.363596+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:46:26.363596+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f3e32af42b6cc784d572", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:46:26.363596+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:46:26.363596+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f58e8c6623fd90c0603b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-330.13676176593646" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": -330136761.76593643, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -330136761.76593643, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -583538584.2492275, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:34:07.646269+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.767566208403505, "delta": -253401822.4832911 }, "results": [ { "value": -583538584.2492275, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:34:07.646269+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f864c6b5a84c5c00d8e8", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:40:49.736732+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified property-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. PE maps the direct Income Tax liability; the OBR also allocates effects to taxes and the Scottish block grant that this construction does not model. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, Inheritance tax, Stamp duty, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:40:49.736732+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified property-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. PE maps the direct Income Tax liability; the OBR also allocates effects to taxes and the Scottish block grant that this construction does not model. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, Inheritance tax, Stamp duty, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f86c9901fdda4a3696e8", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "30.213302653524025" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 30213302.653524026, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 30213302.653524026, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f9d34bd0af6cc4611f72", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Capital gains tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2026 would proxy OBR FY 2026-27.", "Head mapping unavailable for Capital gains tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fab86ed9c0cb8a807aaa", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Stamp duty", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fae9bdf2e65e4765e5c3", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-312.9217912621155" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": -312921791.2621155, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -312921791.2621155, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -8507737534.679443, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:38:33.651628+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 27.188063510581884, "delta": -8194815743.417328 }, "results": [ { "value": -8507737534.679443, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:38:33.651628+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2026 proxies FY 2026-27. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fe9a8b81e051b93920ec", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "5.6511801026078325" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": 5651180.102607832, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5651180.102607832, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0309968995ff7729a8a9", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "20.144606500244482" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 20144606.500244483, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20144606.500244483, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. 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Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -280547244.177091 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:00:59.534577+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "15edea0d2f1337bd8c20", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": 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the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2ac6c1070653e261aac1", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-182.6490358484948" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": -182649035.8484948, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -182649035.8484948, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2aecb9bb00ef52a84dc4", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "403.9394445104126" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d32461d1f518da75", "external_value": 403939444.51041263, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 403939444.51041263, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; 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Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. 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Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. 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raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:59:47.891807+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2585284465853936, "delta": -2538217302.2227955 }, "results": [ { "value": -12356159334.317142, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:59:47.891807+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2e99569130fc535bfff0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:12:00.519380+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:12:00.519380+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "34477c8dfd241cda1159", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "122.18143547911787" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 122181435.47911787, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 122181435.47911787, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:04:15.969675+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -122181435.47911787 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:04:15.969675+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "35503af71cb855e55304", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-38.10223965153843" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -38102239.65153843, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -38102239.65153843, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:07:51.944488+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 38102239.65153843 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:07:51.944488+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3c29bb444a87e352db43", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "1.6878731027686753" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": 1687873.1027686752, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1687873.1027686752, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "45a9d6a328cd90fbf33a", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", "value_verbatim": "102.24854681655523" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": 102248546.81655523, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 102248546.81655523, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Inheritance tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; 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PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5088be8feb9225aa1ef4", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "3.1405148034139247" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fd10f381813243", "external_value": 3140514.8034139248, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3140514.8034139248, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5134e9c0b06a46c68140", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-1676.337" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0a67ec2728bca53f", "external_value": -1676337000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1676337000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1358708147.8148103, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:09:12.213684+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = winter_fuel_allowance; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8105220774908687, "delta": 317628852.1851897 }, "results": [ { "value": -1358708147.8148103, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:09:12.213684+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = winter_fuel_allowance; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "532dfe8803bd2f2dabee", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_standard_and_health_protections", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare outside cap", "value_verbatim": "-4.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4c600f3a70cf3d81", "external_value": -4000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -4000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare outside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare outside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5416b27789300dac8596", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "206.48157821251218" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 206481578.21251217, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 206481578.21251217, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Income tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Income tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "55760aed9c32a5784b14", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": 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"publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "0.19716475126614982" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 197164.75126614983, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 197164.75126614983, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5a52ed8c9c78623957b5", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": 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It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 62.99754340955398, "delta": -8644543664.361586 }, "results": [ { "value": -8783977312.67981, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:03:12.397603+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "773fb4d59cd1cb805b14", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "784.7108522952692" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": 784710852.2952693, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 784710852.2952693, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:57:31.576743+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -784710852.2952693 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:57:31.576743+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "784815fc703127165b65", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:12:00.519380+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:12:00.519380+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "78e093555e768f25c74c", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Tobacco duty", "value_verbatim": "30.90124337834187" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 30901243.378341872, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 30901243.378341872, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Tobacco duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Tobacco duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "828bafe1027ea5530dfc", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "-2.111519415894798" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": -2111519.415894798, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2111519.415894798, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "83980538936d5bf78902", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "83aace5e8af0946975bb", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-426.0" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "child_benefit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_end", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_start" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7ef154fddbe9a1a5", "external_value": -426000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -426000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:02:09.597415+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = child_benefit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. 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Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6431835340306458, "delta": -60654455.29123908 }, "results": [ { "value": 109333370.59695435, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:59:47.891807+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9c928adac8df8ec683c4", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "-12.7955469452619" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": -12795546.945261901, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -12795546.945261901, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9d6c6f61067ba0b7973a", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "57.336369197747175" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 57336369.19774717, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 57336369.19774717, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9dba86401d74b538f368", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-16.095413675439087" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -16095413.675439086, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -16095413.675439086, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:07:51.944488+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 16095413.675439086 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:07:51.944488+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a334a5a40b81761d2179", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Customs duty", "value_verbatim": "12.163832401696807" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 12163832.401696807, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 12163832.401696807, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Customs duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Customs duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a3552bee130c3334899d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "24166.582486907064" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": 24166582486.907063, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 24166582486.907063, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 25206449240.09022, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:03:12.397603+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0430291189805814, "delta": 1039866753.1831589 }, "results": [ { "value": 25206449240.09022, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:03:12.397603+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a6c3a6602f240da63bff", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "6.154373680937649" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": 6154373.680937649, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 6154373.680937649, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 8119534.424377441, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:58:39.570547+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.3193112484421634, "delta": 1965160.7434397927 }, "results": [ { "value": 8119534.424377441, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:58:39.570547+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a6f094c595eac34c5418", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "2.238872256787487" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 2238872.256787487, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2238872.256787487, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. 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No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Capital gains tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. 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"key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -403221.639611952, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -403221.639611952, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": 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"data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b569940f8bd2938743ca", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "1030.6693360009078" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 1030669336.0009078, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1030669336.0009078, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 922708537.6471558, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:04:15.969675+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8952517605960318, "delta": -107960798.35375202 }, "results": [ { "value": 922708537.6471558, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:04:15.969675+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. 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No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-368.70320537524304" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": -368703205.37524307, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -368703205.37524307, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d9537cd4788a4a1f5177", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:10:43.215510+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:10:43.215510+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "daa431fe8695d7caccc9", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:10:43.215510+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:10:43.215510+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "dd4aabe593488725db9b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "161.06638811701737" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": 161066388.11701736, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 161066388.11701736, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:58:39.570547+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -161066388.11701736 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:58:39.570547+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e14c5e37d264d6ac0af1", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:10:43.215510+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:10:43.215510+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e4e511654d3b81ef1acb", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "27.84524926110863" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fd10f381813243", "external_value": 27845249.26110863, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 27845249.26110863, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f2bcf3e9c95916b62505", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-242.06840086703144" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": -242068400.86703146, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -242068400.86703146, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f304cdda6a5b6d9a126b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "0.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 483128254.0361328, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:05:36.419855+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified property-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. PE maps the direct Income Tax liability; the OBR also allocates effects to taxes and the Scottish block grant that this construction does not model. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, Inheritance tax, Stamp duty, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": null, "delta": 483128254.0361328 }, "results": [ { "value": 483128254.0361328, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:05:36.419855+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified property-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. PE maps the direct Income Tax liability; the OBR also allocates effects to taxes and the Scottish block grant that this construction does not model. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, Inheritance tax, Stamp duty, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f5b1a5d46ddb8532d59c", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "157.87846038779415" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": 157878460.38779414, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 157878460.38779414, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f66f5d91847f64d07b03", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-9564.167485439439" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": -9564167485.439438, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -9564167485.439438, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -12356159334.317142, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:57:31.576743+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2919220991401765, "delta": -2791991848.8777046 }, "results": [ { "value": -12356159334.317142, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:57:31.576743+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fbc418bad76b27b05cf4", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "-38.33328287756088" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": -38333282.877560884, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -38333282.877560884, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2027 would proxy OBR FY 2027-28.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "feeb2eab1a6c05f36a27", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-221.0" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "child_benefit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_end", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_start" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7ef154fddbe9a1a5", "external_value": -221000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -221000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1844209824.508789, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:02:09.597415+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. PE's would_claim_child_benefit is fixed in this static run, so the PE child_benefit delta is zero." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 8.3448408348814, "delta": -1623209824.508789 }, "results": [ { "value": -1844209824.508789, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:02:09.597415+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2027 proxies FY 2027-28. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. PE's would_claim_child_benefit is fixed in this static run, so the PE child_benefit delta is zero." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "01c0090e527aa6db24d1", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-2325.254" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5c861b1639af42f9", "external_value": -2325254000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2325254000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1317493136.007225, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:39:00.873228+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Unmapped OBR heads: Welfare outside cap." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5666018146865783, "delta": 1007760863.992775 }, "results": [ { "value": -1317493136.007225, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:39:00.873228+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Unmapped OBR heads: Welfare outside cap." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "02d18451ba3f240d8790", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "261.6545115364215" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 261654511.53642154, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 261654511.53642154, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Income tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Income tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "041ab3006574214ba6b2", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "6.7267014290163205" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 6726701.429016321, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 6726701.429016321, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0d8181c0ef10986dc479", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "202.84074805001308" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": 202840748.05001307, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 202840748.05001307, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:24:06.304477+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -202840748.05001307 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:24:06.304477+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. 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This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. 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This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. 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Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.6536413230446252, "delta": -499604267.7348715 }, "results": [ { "value": -1263944357.8132381, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:26:35.235346+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1a013f1d0878c1f8e6cf", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "490.71376068209355" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0a67ec2728bca53f", "external_value": 490713760.68209356, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 490713760.68209356, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:35:14.391952+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -490713760.68209356 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:35:14.391952+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1cdea776ac86490abeb1", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "360.14991747214975" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "86fd10f381813243", "external_value": 360149917.4721497, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 360149917.4721497, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:26:35.235346+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -360149917.4721497 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:26:35.235346+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1efb4f1aaf704ce7aebd", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-290.6457112809461" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": -290645711.2809461, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -290645711.2809461, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "238e8722b406708f58a0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "42.3607418" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": 42360741.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 42360741.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "23e0b1f28deaa3a7986b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "2.838759920443839" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 2838759.920443839, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2838759.920443839, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "244771b3322a4125a562", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "3220.073386374221" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 3220073386.3742213, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3220073386.3742213, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 4036115762.338745, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:36:28.063352+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2534235335808235, "delta": 816042375.9645238 }, "results": [ { "value": 4036115762.338745, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:36:28.063352+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "25cb0ecfae5b856a9a71", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "0.1369597690068531" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 136959.7690068531, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 136959.7690068531, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2e4f3b2cec5780f5ccb0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "88.62134378866848" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 88621343.78866848, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 88621343.78866848, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; 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Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4ddbb9b558fd92d3c40e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", 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null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_standard_and_health_protections", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. 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The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "50fec158198ab2860ffd", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "-1.8766378792906133" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": -1876637.8792906133, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1876637.8792906133, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5437b4273721ec92083a", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-21.459998959731617" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": -21459998.959731616, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -21459998.959731616, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:34:05.565924+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 21459998.959731616 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:34:05.565924+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5987129b7d69d9aa9bfe", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "1.2806256912634406" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 1280625.6912634405, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1280625.6912634405, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5cef9bca57fdd09432f6", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-9840.040167551244" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": -9840040167.551245, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -9840040167.551245, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -12663862924.5513, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:22:59.875390+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2869726859766246, "delta": -2823822757.0000553 }, "results": [ { "value": -12663862924.5513, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:22:59.875390+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5d5be56bd4d3df4339e3", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", "value_verbatim": "-15.094923" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": -15094923.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -15094923.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5eaa0427e088461fb1f0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "-0.9245724035413635" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": -924572.4035413635, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -924572.4035413635, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "61c89f00fd6eeee0d576", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "7.9963655273691145" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": 7996365.527369115, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 7996365.527369115, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "62713f7ff12e47dc3330", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-75.36834127218263" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": -75368341.27218263, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -75368341.27218263, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -95983530.8145752, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:37:41.013976+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2735258491087602, "delta": -20615189.542392567 }, "results": [ { "value": -95983530.8145752, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:37:41.013976+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "62f203b5c8d13efd3469", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "156.4393838339683" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 156439383.83396828, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 156439383.83396828, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:36:28.063352+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -156439383.83396828 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:36:28.063352+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "63feee434a6644eed3af", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-125.02202869605237" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": -125022028.69605237, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -125022028.69605237, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -8988426278.909851, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:29:00.644053+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 71.89474025223257, "delta": -8863404250.213799 }, "results": [ { "value": -8988426278.909851, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:29:00.644053+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "640bb7ada6d4bf134b0d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "179.64398788710764" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d32461d1f518da75", "external_value": 179643987.88710764, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 179643987.88710764, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 109787606.17053986, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:25:15.603077+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.611139885402304, "delta": -69856381.71656778 }, "results": [ { "value": 109787606.17053986, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:25:15.603077+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6d9ee1b6b43f481e764a", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", "value_verbatim": "146.84009098793942" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": 146840090.98793942, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 146840090.98793942, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Inheritance tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Inheritance tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6db4f9c50d9809a1e678", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-193.0" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "child_benefit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_end", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_start" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7ef154fddbe9a1a5", "external_value": -193000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -193000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1972030891.008606, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:27:52.864502+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. PE's would_claim_child_benefit is fixed in this static run, so the PE child_benefit delta is zero." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 10.21777663735029, "delta": -1779030891.008606 }, "results": [ { "value": -1972030891.008606, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:27:52.864502+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. 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"ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for VAT; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "898edb710e7b2d81d064", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "11.730019954526949" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 11730019.954526948, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 11730019.954526948, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8b510227975836c31ffa", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-465.0" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "program": "child_benefit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "child_benefit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_end", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges.CB_HITC.phase_out_start" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7ef154fddbe9a1a5", "external_value": -465000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -465000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:27:52.864502+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = child_benefit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. PE's would_claim_child_benefit is fixed in this static run, so the PE child_benefit delta is zero." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.0, "delta": 465000000.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:27:52.864502+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = child_benefit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: The HICBC tax-charge formula and thresholds are direct. child_benefit is a PROVISIONAL PE head mapping for the OBR \"Welfare inside cap\" head. The matched harvest row identifies neither the programme nor a mechanism. PE's would_claim_child_benefit is fixed in this static run, so the PE child_benefit delta is zero." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__hicbc_threshold_and_taper", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8b936da3e699f1e0e28d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "117.77732075587528" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": 117777320.75587527, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 117777320.75587527, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Capital gains tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Capital gains tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8d180d852ec71d776464", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "588.345351" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": 588345351.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 588345351.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 504907774.3865967, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:31:13.940127+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified property-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. PE maps the direct Income Tax liability; the OBR also allocates effects to taxes and the Scottish block grant that this construction does not model. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, Inheritance tax, Stamp duty, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8581826533147819, "delta": -83437576.61340332 }, "results": [ { "value": 504907774.3865967, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:31:13.940127+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified property-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. PE maps the direct Income Tax liability; the OBR also allocates effects to taxes and the Scottish block grant that this construction does not model. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, Inheritance tax, Stamp duty, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8d964687c9b589019738", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-77.54169664243784" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": -77541696.64243785, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -77541696.64243785, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -28354843.855041504, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:36:28.063352+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.3656722135677795, "delta": 49186852.78739634 }, "results": [ { "value": -28354843.855041504, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:36:28.063352+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "99a1812188d30aa00cb8", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "180.12093794196733" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": 180120937.94196734, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 180120937.94196734, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 109787606.17053986, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:22:59.875390+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. 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Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6095216215558017, "delta": -70333331.77142748 }, "results": [ { "value": 109787606.17053986, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:22:59.875390+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: The Class 1 rate lever is direct. PE static head mappings do not model the OBR's corporation-tax, capital-gains-tax, departmental-spending, or Scottish block-grant channels. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9c2cde38ba3ebc2881fe", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "197.3706145740998" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": 197370614.57409978, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 197370614.57409978, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9feb63905f6a230c88ba", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_standard_and_health_protections", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. 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The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare outside cap", "value_verbatim": "-5.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4c600f3a70cf3d81", "external_value": -5000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -5000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. 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The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. 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"Partial construction: Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at \u00a35,000, but PE's parameter is constant at \u00a35,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.125423754443094, "delta": 588527541.9003758 }, "results": [ { "value": 1111466159.0895996, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:32:46.327298+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at \u00a35,000, but PE's parameter is constant at \u00a35,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "add42d4fb576d08ae266", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-23.26758536616991" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": -23267585.36616991, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -23267585.36616991, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b27acaa8d6913e93b328", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Alcohol duty", "value_verbatim": "21.469939798682542" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 21469939.79868254, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 21469939.79868254, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Alcohol duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Alcohol duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b4c1dc90d4c9732eb5e6", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "78.36110760494722" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "379aa7a576321539", "external_value": 78361107.60494722, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 78361107.60494722, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bbcedebfdf18df1b84f6", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "24873.640251083874" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": 24873640251.083874, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 24873640251.083874, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 25618300125.581856, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:29:00.644053+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.029937711850019, "delta": 744659874.497982 }, "results": [ { "value": 25618300125.581856, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:29:00.644053+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bd408bc0051bf35f628d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", 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reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d404b40a470aa066251c", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", 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"sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 13483110.03993607, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 16707183.741485596, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:26:35.235346+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.239119438467834, "delta": 3224073.7015495263 }, "results": [ { "value": 16707183.741485596, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:26:35.235346+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d5a902435851aced9bf0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Customs duty", "value_verbatim": "19.61734531916971" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 19617345.31916971, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 19617345.31916971, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Customs duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Customs duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d7ffe45cd986c0e77504", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "-13.334609397444368" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": -13334609.397444367, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -13334609.397444367, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d8662704a81a556bee26", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_liability_abolition", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "25.848426991564555" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e52f66c0cabff1da", "external_value": 25848426.991564553, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25848426.991564553, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "dcbbf2926312bc04068d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "spring_budget_2024", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "-10088.448612903854" }, "measure": { "key": "spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d32461d1f518da75", "external_value": -10088448612.903854, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -10088448612.903854, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_spring_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -12663862924.5513, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:25:15.603077+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.255283484157644, "delta": -2575414311.6474457 }, "results": [ { "value": -12663862924.5513, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:25:15.603077+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 1 rate reversal; PE calendar 2024 proxies FY 2024-25. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, not the full OBR welfare-head scope, and the named non-microsimulation heads are omitted. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_spring_budget_2024__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "dcc05b09ddf355a90128", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "6.7267014290163205" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": 6726701.429016321, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 6726701.429016321, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 8283750.790786743, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:24:06.304477+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2314729408167173, "delta": 1557049.3617704222 }, "results": [ { "value": 8283750.790786743, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:24:06.304477+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Direct Class 4 rate reversal. Welfare inside cap is represented only by universal_credit, and non-microsimulation OBR heads remain unmapped. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e46d3b6e11bbae177b3c", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "398.27000000000004" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": 398270000.00000006, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 398270000.00000006, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 326313587.5677004, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:37:41.013976+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8193275606189278, "delta": -71956412.43229967 }, "results": [ { "value": 326313587.5677004, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:37:41.013976+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e7ac1178db4486c3a169", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_statement_2023", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-209.3726015320898" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "fd0fb33e1f501720", "external_value": -209372601.5320898, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -209372601.5320898, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_statement_2023__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e8e574b828d8878b7f1e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-270.7701242242245" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": -270770124.2242245, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -270770124.2242245, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ea42e5b9ba542b1fb221", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "9.207496135836879" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 9207496.135836879, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 9207496.135836879, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for PSCE in RDEL; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ecb754f9c5062a298049", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2028-29", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "206.00427087861084" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 206004270.87861085, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 206004270.87861085, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:30:05.073934+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -206004270.87861085 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:30:05.073934+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2028 proxies FY 2028-29. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. 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PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. 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No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's Class 2 flat-rate path records zero after abolition but does not store an indexed 2024+ counterfactual, and Class 2 is outside the lane's prescribed NICs aggregate. No reversal value is guessed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2028 would proxy OBR FY 2028-29.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "04d3acc48c5df97b6d22", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Alcohol duty", "value_verbatim": "30.37025940764128" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 30370259.40764128, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 30370259.40764128, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Alcohol duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Alcohol duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0677fb63729c1fd835b5", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Customs duty", "value_verbatim": "26.899676775943554" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 26899676.775943555, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 26899676.775943555, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Customs duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Customs duty; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "104406286781cb7b7ec0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", "value_verbatim": "-11.854122" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": -11854122.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -11854122.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "11ce2d7078a2606cd090", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-1734.2465" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0a67ec2728bca53f", "external_value": -1734246500.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1734246500.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1328674476.684928, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:53:53.243312+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = winter_fuel_allowance; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7661393444847246, "delta": 405572023.31507206 }, "results": [ { "value": -1328674476.684928, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:53:53.243312+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = winter_fuel_allowance; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "18c3e4bbaa52d4e323a2", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-157.10757363540452" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": -157107573.63540453, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -157107573.63540453, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -56626289.62754822, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:55:01.671105+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.36043004367796666, "delta": 100481284.00785631 }, "results": [ { "value": -56626289.62754822, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:55:01.671105+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "22bace178a3d2c7ae493", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "-6.3978631" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": -6397863.100000001, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -6397863.100000001, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": 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the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Corporation tax (onshore); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6379c321aeea4aba18db", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "-2.0961712099097594" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": -2096171.2099097595, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2096171.2099097595, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "69a3a7e8bc4ec652693e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "816.0506737154507" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 816050673.7154506, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 816050673.7154506, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; 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basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; 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The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1194463727124266, "delta": 887160911.9861908 }, "results": [ { "value": 8314434690.505005, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:55:01.671105+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "834a5b72a95ccd63c92a", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "526.0331145542328" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0a67ec2728bca53f", "external_value": 526033114.55423284, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 526033114.55423284, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:53:53.243312+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -526033114.55423284 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:53:53.243312+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "85c95c8128b8fd2a8917", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "1390.554382340003" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": 1390554382.340003, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1390554382.340003, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -239301307.7022705, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:52:46.793054+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.17209057821929843, "delta": -1629855690.0422735 }, "results": [ { "value": -239301307.7022705, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:52:46.793054+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8864c0bc5a8028d9c2c2", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "-336.382889551976" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": -336382889.551976, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -336382889.551976, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8d3e135a328d20ba0eb2", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-2570.299" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5c861b1639af42f9", "external_value": -2570299000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2570299000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1339468777.1564941, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:58:02.398241+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Unmapped OBR heads: Welfare outside cap." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5211334467921802, "delta": 1230830222.8435059 }, "results": [ { "value": -1339468777.1564941, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:58:02.398241+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Unmapped OBR heads: Welfare outside cap." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "912fed05a2ab63898a09", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_standard_and_health_protections", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare outside cap", "value_verbatim": "-6.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4c600f3a70cf3d81", "external_value": -6000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -6000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare outside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare outside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9e54ded2183eeb716570", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "-12.476326565482541" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": -12476326.565482542, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -12476326.565482542, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Scottish BGA (current); no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a00ccb01910b456397c3", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_standard_and_health_protections", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-785.3415" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4c600f3a70cf3d81", "external_value": -785341500.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -785341500.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a18f804665b69e73c5da", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Stamp duty", "value_verbatim": "-23.521973" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "042a362ae0e01b97", "external_value": -23521973.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -23521973.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a21782572e2dcfff572e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__hmrc_5000_compliance_staff", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "17.716498361140037" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6261460a05325c62", "external_value": 17716498.361140035, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 17716498.361140035, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "Compliance staffing and collection yield are not microsimulation parameters.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a forward change from the certified baseline.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for NICs; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a817a734e67a383f9d2b", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-159.90971901817312" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": -159909719.01817313, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -159909719.01817313, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -198664881.8786621, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:56:17.024616+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2423565190311203, "delta": -38755162.86048898 }, "results": [ { "value": -198664881.8786621, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:56:17.024616+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aa38ccd4bd50576e58d7", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "0.10069861457257609" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 100698.61457257609, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 100698.61457257609, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b08d24a87f4879f2643c", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "-129.84339406867448" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": -129843394.06867449, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -129843394.06867449, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -9404061793.93042, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:48:20.036076+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 72.42618587863306, "delta": -9274218399.861746 }, "results": [ { "value": -9404061793.93042, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:48:20.036076+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b36a123e06cc18ee8597", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__non_dom_residence_based_regime", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", "value_verbatim": "141.39304349077383" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a0dc2ca93c12cab3", "external_value": 141393043.49077383, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 141393043.49077383, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Capital gains tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "The residence history, foreign-income discount, CGT rebasing, IHT, and Temporary Repatriation Facility package is not a plain PE-UK parameter reform in this version.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2029 would proxy OBR FY 2029-30.", "Head mapping unavailable for Capital gains tax; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b3ce4c0bc13772f36956", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "25624.586204164254" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": 25624586204.164253, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 25624586204.164253, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 26148779059.003807, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:48:20.036076+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0204566368667591, "delta": 524192854.83955383 }, "results": [ { "value": 26148779059.003807, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:48:20.036076+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE represents the employer rate and weekly secondary threshold (\u00a396 \u00d7 52 = \u00a34,992 in the installed model). It has no Employment Allowance or firm entity, so the allowance increase and \u00a3100,000 test removal are missing. policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employee_incidence.yaml sets gov.contrib.policyengine.employer_ni.employee_incidence to 1, and policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/policyengine/employer_ni/employer_ni_fixed_employer_cost_change.py adjusts wages holding employer cost fixed. The resulting wage change moves employee-side Income Tax and NICs, which is why the PE Income-tax head is non-zero. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b730973f452f226fa8a0", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "44.04807422647605" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 44048074.22647604, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 44048074.22647604, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c261e6044638019ff2aa", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2024", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", "value_verbatim": "231.67192862583067" }, "measure": { "key": "autumn_budget_2024__employer_nics_package", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_2", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employer", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "31309e8cc3a471b7", "external_value": 231671928.62583068, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 231671928.62583068, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c7dfc9d9153d42d9c8a3", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare outside cap", "value_verbatim": "-525.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5c861b1639af42f9", "external_value": -525000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -525000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d23d55ddac0276b7ce4d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "3522.669371413509" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": 3522669371.413509, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3522669371.413509, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 1147567758.7722702, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:52:46.793054+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.32576652469425377, "delta": -2375101612.6412387 }, "results": [ { "value": 1147567758.7722702, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:52:46.793054+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d7852fc9b4988aaa3f1e", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "469.0964307994401" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d48cad183e410e", "external_value": 469096430.7994401, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 469096430.7994401, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 1175285824.4385986, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:51:40.902501+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. 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The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -329060572.787541 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:55:01.671105+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f2e614795e0040001cd3", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/54", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2024", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": 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PE maps the direct Income Tax liability; the OBR also allocates effects to taxes and the Scottish block grant that this construction does not model. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, Inheritance tax, Stamp duty, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2338659750495244, "delta": 99864695.85107422 }, "results": [ { "value": 526881476.8510742, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__property_income_separate_rates_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T12:50:30.490538+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2029 proxies FY 2029-30. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified property-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. PE maps the direct Income Tax liability; the OBR also allocates effects to taxes and the Scottish block grant that this construction does not model. 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Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -0.10331206777270079, "delta": 788306924.7468556 }, "results": [ { "value": 73815578.39709473, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:33:03.951254+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. 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No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2030 would proxy OBR FY 2030-31.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare outside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. 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Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8054826856053016, "delta": -243811892.2086029 }, "results": [ { "value": 1009608107.7913971, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:44:23.324249+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Counterfactual weekly values apply the installed parameter's documented OBR-CPI uprating to \u00a396 from 2028. Exact source rounding and non-microsimulation heads are not assumption-matched, so this is partial. 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The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1115034968754698, "delta": 1285855117.656145 }, "results": [ { "value": 12817826344.461914, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:41:04.089112+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5b427789b3b585206667", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "1457.9403398309337" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "dividend_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[0].rate", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.dividends[1].rate" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0704d88842961d9c", "external_value": 1457940339.8309336, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1457940339.8309336, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 1014237482.576416, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:24:43.627983+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6956645994815053, "delta": -443702857.25451756 }, "results": [ { "value": 1014237482.576416, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__dividend_income_rate_increase_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:24:43.627983+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), Capital gains tax, PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5eed0cbfa98ed5b04cc9", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "-131.95132480216" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0a67ec2728bca53f", "external_value": -131951324.80216, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -131951324.80216, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5f62166bc67b66dc3c6d", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "507.27394649189347" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "savings_income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings.higher", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.savings_starter_rate.allowance" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "63d48cad183e410e", "external_value": 507273946.4918935, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 507273946.4918935, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 1244574728.5960693, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:30:04.718960+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at \u00a35,000, but PE's parameter is constant at \u00a35,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.4534568297919837, "delta": 737300782.1041758 }, "results": [ { "value": 1244574728.5960693, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__savings_income_rates_and_starter_limit_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:30:04.718960+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the three certified savings-income rates to 20%, 40%, and 45%. The same OBR measure freezes the Starting Rate for Savings limit at \u00a35,000, but PE's parameter is constant at \u00a35,000 since 2010 and carries no no-measure uprating path; that component is omitted." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__savings_rates_plus_2pp_and_starter_limit_held", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "684f51dd05a93afa03fb", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-235.7172025606915" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": -235717202.5606915, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -235717202.5606915, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -84244420.02688599, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:41:04.089112+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.35739614721244234, "delta": 151472782.53380552 }, "results": [ { "value": -84244420.02688599, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:41:04.089112+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7026bc14213b92573e23", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-2684.855" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "5c861b1639af42f9", "external_value": -2684855000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2684855000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1385853710.9238129, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:46:52.664367+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Unmapped OBR heads: Welfare outside cap." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5161745088370928, "delta": 1299001289.0761871 }, "results": [ { "value": -1385853710.9238129, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:46:52.664367+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = universal_credit; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Unmapped OBR heads: Welfare outside cap." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "75a28ab8c78500fd3871", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", "value_verbatim": "-16.180760506127605" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": -16180760.506127605, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -16180760.506127605, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7ae7765626c2e7a2c959", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "533.1427623151989" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "74ced3cfb90a030b", "external_value": 533142762.31519884, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 533142762.31519884, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:41:04.089112+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -533142762.31519884 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__personal_tax_and_nics_threshold_freeze_extension_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:41:04.089112+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Reverses the PA/main/dividend HRT extension using the installed parameters' documented CPI uprating indices. The certified bundle already resumes uprating PT/UEL from 2028 and Class 4 limits from 2027, so it does not consistently encode the equivalent-NI freeze; this construction is partial and makes no NI threshold override. Unmapped OBR heads: Capital gains tax, Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8c6c7bbbef3f54fe9bb8", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "NICs", "value_verbatim": "3531.429304873591" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee", "salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer", "salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut", "national_insurance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3ac03b6623abb2f9", "external_value": 3531429304.873591, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3531429304.873591, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 1140959761.5656214, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:33:03.951254+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.32308724402072164, "delta": -2390469543.3079696 }, "results": [ { "value": 1140959761.5656214, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:33:03.951254+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: NICs = ni_class_1_employee + ni_class_1_employer + ni_class_4; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Unmapped OBR heads: Corporation tax (onshore), PSCE in RDEL, Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9023731c3decba9948ed", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_extension", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "PSCE in RDEL", "value_verbatim": "-2.484555000821547" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employer_nics_secondary_threshold_freeze_to_2031", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_employer" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.secondary_threshold" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "1f4911beaaec54cc", "external_value": -2484555.000821547, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -2484555.000821547, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9934e1f66dfc68a52c06", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-1753.8495" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0a67ec2728bca53f", "external_value": -1753849500.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1753849500.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": -1364501120.7383275, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:37:34.570657+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = winter_fuel_allowance; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7780035406335193, "delta": 389348379.2616725 }, "results": [ { "value": -1364501120.7383275, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:37:34.570657+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Welfare inside cap = winter_fuel_allowance; positive gain to the Exchequer = \u2212\u0394spending.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9e2c5b9ec042fabaeb24", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "tax_head": "Income tax", "value_verbatim": "561.6969451324424" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "0a67ec2728bca53f", "external_value": 561696945.1324424, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 561696945.1324424, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:37:34.570657+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -561696945.1324424 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world with plain parameter dictionary; raw aggregates in results/uk/obr_costings/autumn_budget_2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T13:37:34.570657+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "PE: static microsimulation on the certified world; reversal re-oriented to the announced measure; PE calendar year 2030 proxies FY 2030-31. measure \u0394 = \u2212(reversal \u2212 baseline).", "Head mapping: Income tax = income_tax; positive gain to the Exchequer = +\u0394tax.", "Partial construction: Turns off the certified \u00a335,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below \u00a335,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Unmapped OBR heads: Scottish BGA (current)." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a9293f080d6dc3b87e93", "source": "obr_pmd", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy measures database (November 2025)", "url": "https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Policy_measures_database_November_2025_.xlsx", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "gbp", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025", "basis": "forecast", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_phase": "original_scorecard", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fiscal_measure": "exchequer_impact", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "impact_channel": "spending_measure", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "obr_measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__uc_standard_and_health_protections", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", "spending_head": "Welfare inside cap", "value_verbatim": "-938.2125" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4c600f3a70cf3d81", "external_value": -938212500.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -938212500.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "obr_pre_measures_autumn_budget_2025__policy_parameters", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. No scalar proxy or inside/outside-cap allocation is assumed.", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T11:20:16.661319+00:00", "annotations": [ "OBR source facts: source_model=hmt_scorecard_obr_database; basis=forecast; behavioural_adjustment=unstated in harvest.", "No PE value: this registry entry is not expressible as a supported plain parameter reform.", "PE: no microsimulation constructed; the registry construction is a reversal on the certified world.", "PE calendar year 2030 would proxy OBR FY 2030-31.", "Head mapping unavailable for Welfare inside cap; no aggregate is substituted." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "PE's scenario layer randomly labels post-2025 claimants using hard-coded shares, does not test a Severe Conditions Criteria variable, and does not expose the full protection as a plain parameter dictionary. The available rebalancing uplift parameter is not referenced by a formula. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f0538af247f5ec3de673", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 10", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "22.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 22.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 22.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f7732b15d0cf1aa63301", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 11", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_11", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "15.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 15.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 15.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bd12ba0b701dedf2cc51", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 12", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_12", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "8.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 8.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 8.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "43b24f1b76faab83dd8e", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 13", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_13", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "10.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 10.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "641f4b9ab7d42eacd693", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 14", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_14", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "4.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 4.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 4.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "03e158d8dbc2df85e120", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 15", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_15", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "2.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 2.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e57157a2bc1f27b2f40c", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 16", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_16", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "4.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 4.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 4.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d9abf02fb57f70f09eb6", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 18", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_18", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "2.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 2.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ae3fe22881d6c1f4b554", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 18-24", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "18-24", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "49.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 49.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 49.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "af27634bba1dce05a0c0", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 19", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_19", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "1.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 1.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5fe592f9b74429e664c1", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 2", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "98.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 98.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 98.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "262a3f5cb96694b29bdb", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 25-34", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "25-34", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "28.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 28.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 28.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2da8c91acff6e77ba764", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 3", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "103.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 103.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 103.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bac4e8e14532e4f7c013", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 35-44", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "35-44", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "80.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 80.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 80.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5d61abad8555582572e8", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 4", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "107.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 107.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 107.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4773551bf9d442083a2c", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 45-54", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "45-54", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "47.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 47.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 47.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0fd56110700dce50bb06", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 5", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "60.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 60.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 60.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "aa23ebb00e469c11bca9", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 55-64", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "55-64", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "10.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 10.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 10.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7b291f9e636618f3e1a7", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 6", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_6", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "55.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 55.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a6796bfb2ec4f1335aeb", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 65+", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "65+", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "1.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 1.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3e5f3eef53977902cbd7", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 7", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "57.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 57.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 57.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "20025364437303b2e3f3", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 8", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "55.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 55.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "141dcc6adc23d6686781", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "FSM expansion / 9", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "FSM expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: FSM expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "17.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f5fec6b3876b1543", "external_value": 17.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 17.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d946fa7b8cc4dea64aa4", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 10", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "21.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 21.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 21.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9ebabedfb013d7948a67", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 11", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_11", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "15.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 15.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 15.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "32629c4abcc2690bd66e", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 12", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_12", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "9.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 9.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 9.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "01c412c8b8ee51556b93", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 13", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_13", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "9.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 9.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 9.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2f4296e6dd5216826d5e", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 14", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_14", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "4.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 4.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 4.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d17082295389142aace9", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 15", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_15", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "2.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 2.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d579cd20fb3f36c7705f", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 16", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_16", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "3.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 3.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "893a92290e449d962da4", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 18", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_18", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "2.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 2.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "814cf292576015b52520", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 19", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_19", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "2.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 2.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "180e7e7801ffb647fb93", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 2", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "101.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 101.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 101.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b8a41dc1e037a741eaa4", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 3", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "103.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 103.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 103.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e49dcb4a9ee3f6cb6874", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 4", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "105.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 105.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 105.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c5add5be50e7b4a6a73f", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 5", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "62.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 62.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 62.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8ab1c9f3db030b7469a0", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 6", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_6", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "54.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 54.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 54.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c89499131e6234e0c5a6", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 7", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "55.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 55.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cb78bb1c01c3ea53602e", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 8", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "54.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 54.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 54.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "29a65c6f2af282605777", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Free School Meals expansion / 9", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Free School Meals expansion", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: Free School Meals expansion", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "20.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "f326f06a7528bbe3", "external_value": 20.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 20.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-107.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": -107.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -107.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "95a78ee9c4a07da6612b", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 11", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_11", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-90.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": -90.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -90.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "970645c1511c32b8e064", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 11", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_11", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-98.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": -98.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -98.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "16b3476ff28bd7585013", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 12", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_12", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-187.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": -187.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -187.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8800b94d1f0a605f915c", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 20", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_20", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-1.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": -1.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a79adf6072687262af3d", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 20", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_20", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-1.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": -1.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -1.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e8d24b806eb91d5feee8", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 25-34", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "25-34", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "-91.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": -91.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -91.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9aa826118f5f4342c466", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 3", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-167.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": -167.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -167.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "baa90254a432990d97c5", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 45-54", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "45-54", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "-125.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": -125.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -125.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "388ff6273a98a4aff640", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 5", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-226.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": -226.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -226.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e96a087f13f975953483", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 5", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-141.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": -141.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -141.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "eb8cc265bcde7dc10828", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 7", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-137.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": -137.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -137.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4c12e23be1d5bd851650", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC Health cut / 8", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC Health cut", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC Health cut", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-156.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": -156.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -156.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0317b607fe74409d05be", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 0-17", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "0-17", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "124.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 124.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 124.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ad6e88321e745c76ba5e", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 10", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "55.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 55.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 55.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d30a9bd4f196c8de9974", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 11", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_11", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. 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The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "51.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 51.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 51.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3725218b1743debd84c7", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 12", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_12", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "2.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 2.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "31644a31971ed168957a", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 25-34", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "25-34", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "80.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 80.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 80.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7813c790200cc89a292d", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 3", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "146.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 146.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 146.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a78ae1645ec97a21b623", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 35-44", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "35-44", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "86.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 86.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 86.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "702fad07e2758faa9038", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 4", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "124.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 124.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 124.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c7daf9ea4e8abae3c38c", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 45-54", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "45-54", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "77.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 77.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 77.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3736948da00947e3e742", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 5", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "111.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 111.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 111.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "78c5830a03a12b3683bb", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 55-64", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "age_group": "55-64", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "age group", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "persons (household income per person)", "value_verbatim": "14.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 14.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 14.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "de349cd3673d6facddf5", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 7", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "86.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 86.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 86.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a966e10df59662926466", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 8", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: UC SA boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "103.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "15dcc69ab5b80869", "external_value": 103.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 103.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5f44c5052a44438f64c3", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC SA boost / 9", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC SA boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. 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The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "57.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 57.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 57.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ed6b9b74a08fab651581", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 11", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_11", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "51.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 51.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 51.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "210b7c6d713e184c5bee", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 12", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_12", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "39.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 39.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 39.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ff6fb57f8dc4a138238d", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 13", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_13", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "18.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 18.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 18.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d47c58245b0a42d400ac", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 14", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_14", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "13.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 13.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 13.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "966aadc6cdce77618544", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 15", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_15", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "12.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 12.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 12.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "485cf46b92d20a276c1b", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 16", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_16", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "13.1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 13.1, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 13.1, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "80f38fee7fe310c70566", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 17", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_17", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "3.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 3.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8d33e28d9688a93361c9", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 18", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_18", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "5.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 5.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 5.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4881a29f38caf554a679", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 19", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_19", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "4.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 4.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 4.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6d6eca19ac1140c0937a", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 2", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "138.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 138.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 138.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "20ad796601af3cfd9c6a", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 20", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_20", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "3.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 3.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "362cc4033e7f64a98737", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 3", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "143.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 143.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 143.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5620b23c57af47dfea52", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 4", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. The Universal Credit Act 2025 legislated this before the Budget; Table 4.1 line 85 is the protection package.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: UC standard allowance boost", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "120.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "uc_LCWRA_element", "uc_standard_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.active" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e3223467d2af2d07", "external_value": 120.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 120.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d6addf2fa914e01e112f", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC standard allowance boost / 5", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "UC standard allowance boost", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "Existing-claimant protection. At the pin the halved health element (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount 423.27 -> 217.26 from 2026; rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element = 217.26) is applied by uc_LCWRA_element to EVERY claimant with limited capability, because the bundle carries no claim-start date. The standard-allowance uplift (rebalancing.standard_allowance_uplift 0.023 -> 0.048) is fully carried. 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The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-43.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -43.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -43.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a44e67efd622f6f5185a", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 10", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-43.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -43.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -43.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7670c4248450b23c7b3a", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 11", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_11", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-43.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -43.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -43.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "7ab770334ebb20f780d6", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 11", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_11", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-42.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -42.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -42.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "12e9db15653d3c33cc16", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 12", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_12", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-52.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -52.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -52.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9fe1043295456b806f54", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 12", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_12", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-51.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -51.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -51.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a648c9e8e81b6fb51851", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 13", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_13", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-32.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -32.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -32.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "dc399c7a0c15d861e619", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 13", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_13", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-33.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -33.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -33.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2fb8ba8453ea0cb9064c", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 14", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_14", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-71.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -71.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -71.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "647570e9bbbc43fe145f", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 14", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_14", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-70.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -70.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -70.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "cd21899761fa2fe20775", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 15", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_15", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-55.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -55.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -55.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e1e6e33b7a9689045941", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 15", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_15", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-55.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -55.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -55.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "202c40b12935b1053775", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 16", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_16", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-76.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -76.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -76.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6bd9b6e13e34f532f9f7", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 16", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_16", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-76.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -76.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -76.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8e092c8acd0001ab829f", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 17", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_17", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-88.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -88.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -88.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "93b17801ea58a00cbd1b", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 17", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_17", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-89.3" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -89.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -89.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "0bd5c0a49db8440e5850", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 18", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_18", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-58.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -58.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -58.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3d7244f1e9f0ee91466e", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 18", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_18", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-58.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -58.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -58.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3f20cafab5b00295d0fc", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 19", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_19", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-74.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -74.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -74.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9471742f99c5d2dc68f8", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 19", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_19", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-74.0" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -74.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -74.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "566363d2333ff04e1eaf", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 2", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-20.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -20.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -20.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f2e993fa989b2fa7a0d6", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 2", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-21.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -21.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -21.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4199391d77ff5e1ec91b", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 20", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_20", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-130.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -130.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -130.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e78323028a6c07b9666c", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 20", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_20", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-130.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -130.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -130.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "102995dfe84cc607f895", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 3", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-9.8" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -9.8, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -9.8, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "a783f086a08762e68d09", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 3", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-8.6" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -8.6, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -8.6, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "2431a7e0f36cc7361116", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 4", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-27.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -27.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -27.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f750d89262a02c80baa7", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 4", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-27.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -27.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -27.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "283c101dce178d3e1b7f", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 5", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-17.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -17.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -17.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "d2b333546dbe805967ab", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 5", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-17.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -17.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -17.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "182cd87b1dc981e7aa0d", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 6", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_6", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-23.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -23.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -23.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "21add97db95d0e956cde", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 6", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_6", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-24.4" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -24.4, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -24.4, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "113a6b7c17b937eea7ff", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 7", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-17.2" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -17.2, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -17.2, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "b8d345daba7f026362ee", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 7", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-18.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -18.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -18.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "5d9c788781255e5977e3", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 8", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-20.7" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -20.7, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -20.7, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "95d92cc5baa5853704aa", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 8", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-21.5" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -21.5, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -21.5, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "463e6d3518f6daa2b657", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 9", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "all tax and benefit policies announced this Parliament \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-35.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c7eff2bf654e8d67", "external_value": -35.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -35.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "ef3950ac52297755fa30", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "eVED / 9", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "average_household_income_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "eVED", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "approx_chart_reading", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_axis": "net equivalised household income vigintile, after housing costs", "income_group": "vigintile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "reform_hint": "permanent tax and benefit changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024 \u2014 component: eVED", "sign_convention": "positive = gain to households", "unit_population": "households", "value_verbatim": "-35.9" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "program": "vehicle_excise_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6a3976f7679116d9", "external_value": -35.9, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:household_gain:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -35.9, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__eved_mileage_supplement_electric_and_phev", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. OBR's supplementary note (2 Apr 2026) sizes the base at 5.5m cars x 8,000 miles.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /electric_vehicle|mileage|vehicle|excise|ved\\b|_ev_|per_mile/. Parameters: 1 node(s) ['gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.income_definitions.capital_derived']. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_permanent_measures_since_ab2024", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No mileage, no fuel-type split and no vehicle excise duty at the pin. The bundle carries num_vehicles and owns_vehicle (WAS-imputed, NTS-calibrated) but not whether a vehicle is electric or a plug-in hybrid, nor annual mileage, and there is no VED parameter tree to attach a per-mile supplement to. 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PolicyEngine's value is the change in spending less the change in tax.", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): Exchequer cost \u00a33.187bn (change in gov_spending less change in gov_tax); Universal Credit rises \u00a33.187bn.", "PE oriented to it: positive = cost to the Exchequer." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9106309141093053, "delta": -312791800.61743164 }, "results": [ { "value": 3187208199.3825684, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the with-limit world, gov_spending less gov_tax, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "gov_spending", "gov_tax", "universal_credit" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Both are the Exchequer cost in 2029-30 with take-up unchanged by the reform: RF's cited method holds Universal Credit take-up at 80% 'between years (or scenarios)', and PolicyEngine's claims are dataset inputs that do not respond (would_claim_uc has no formula). PolicyEngine's value is the change in spending less the change in tax.", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured (2029-30, engine period 2029): Exchequer cost \u00a33.187bn (change in gov_spending less change in gov_tax); Universal Credit rises \u00a33.187bn.", "PE oriented to it: positive = cost to the Exchequer." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d151d3043e70bfed5a11", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Top of the Charts: Budget 2025 special (Ruth Curtice)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Top of the Charts: Budget 2025 special (Ruth Curtice)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/budget-2025-special/", "metric": "benefit_cost_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "all welfare decisions this Parliament (net)", "sign_convention": "positive = cost to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "welfare spending over the course of this Parliament has fallen by \u00a30.5bn in 29-30" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "06ab1fffab749515", "external_value": -500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:spending:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_start_of_parliament_policy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d16feac8a889c72b4174", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "window": "", "publication_title": "Stairway to headroom: Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Stairway-to-headroom.pdf", "metric": "benefit_cost_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__remove_the_benefit_cap", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Repealing the benefit cap", "sign_convention": "positive = cost to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "an additional \u00a31 billion in 2029-30" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__remove_the_benefit_cap", "program": "benefit_cap", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "benefit_cap_reduction", "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.benefit_cap.non_single.in_london", "gov.dwp.benefit_cap.non_single.outside_london", "gov.dwp.benefit_cap.single.in_london", "gov.dwp.benefit_cap.single.outside_london" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "bec9ca92b138e20b", "external_value": 1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:spending:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9b237f672025ed16d1a8", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC uprating total (Figure 8)", "name": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-outlook-2026/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "universal_credit_standard_allowance", "benefit_verbatim": "Universal Credit standard allowance", "component": "total April uprating", "country": "UK", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "value_verbatim": "1.7%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.017, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.017, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.017003431185665274, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 1.70% in April 2025." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0002018344508985, "delta": 3.4311856652730066e-06 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.017003431185665274, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 1.70% in April 2025." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "00d44466f046243cd9d0", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "April 2026 uprating: Local Housing Allowance (frozen)", "name": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/catching-up/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "local_housing_allowance", "benefit_verbatim": "Local Housing Allowance (frozen)", "country": "UK", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "uprating_event": "April 2026", "value_verbatim": "0%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "LHA_cap" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "Measured: gov.dwp.LHA.freeze is true for 2026-27." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": null, "delta": 0.0 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "LHA_cap" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "Measured: gov.dwp.LHA.freeze is true for 2026-27." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bfba5973b686e6a4cc1d", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "April 2026 uprating: State Pension (triple lock: earnings growth)", "name": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/catching-up/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "state_pension", "benefit_verbatim": "State Pension (triple lock: earnings growth)", "country": "UK", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "uprating_event": "April 2026", "value_verbatim": "4.8%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.048, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.048, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.0479913137893595, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "state_pension" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "Measured: gov.dwp.state_pension.new_state_pension.amount rises 4.80% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9998190372783229, "delta": -8.686210640498904e-06 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0479913137893595, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "state_pension" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "Measured: gov.dwp.state_pension.new_state_pension.amount rises 4.80% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6e3095cc719b962ea6d5", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "April 2026 uprating: UC health element, existing recipients", "name": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/catching-up/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "universal_credit_health_element", "benefit_verbatim": "UC health element, existing recipients", "country": "UK", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "uprating_event": "April 2026", "value_verbatim": "1.5%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.015, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.015, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.015427504902308264, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_LCWRA_element" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "Measured: the protected health element is \u00a3429.80 a month in 2026-27." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.028500326820551, "delta": 0.000427504902308265 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.015427504902308264, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_LCWRA_element" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "Measured: the protected health element is \u00a3429.80 a month in 2026-27." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "029a917fdcd006739554", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "April 2026 uprating: UC standard allowance", "name": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/catching-up/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "universal_credit_standard_allowance", "benefit_verbatim": "UC standard allowance", "country": "UK", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "uprating_event": "April 2026", "value_verbatim": "6.2%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.062, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.062, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.061878342580096835, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 6.19% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.998037783549949, "delta": -0.00012165741990316503 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.061878342580096835, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 6.19% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "11fc9161fc8aae002f7e", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "April 2026 uprating: UC standard allowance, under-25s", "name": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/catching-up/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "universal_credit_standard_allowance_under_25", "benefit_verbatim": "UC standard allowance, under-25s", "country": "UK", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "uprating_event": "April 2026", "value_verbatim": "6.8%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.068, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.068, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.06814310051107308, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_YOUNG rises 6.81% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0021044192804864, "delta": 0.00014310051107307986 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.06814310051107308, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_YOUNG rises 6.81% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2356da6d23775b6236ab", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "April 2026 uprating: inflation-linked benefits", "name": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Catching up? Benefit uprating policy for April 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/catching-up/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "inflation_linked_benefits", "benefit_verbatim": "inflation-linked benefits", "country": "UK", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "uprating_event": "April 2026", "value_verbatim": "3.8%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.038, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.038, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.03801099689218268, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_child_element", "uc_carer_element", "child_benefit", "carers_allowance", "pip_dl" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "Measured: the UC child element rises 3.80% in April 2026; the CPI-linked working-age basket (uc_child_element, uc_carer_element, child_benefit_eldest, child_benefit_additional, carers_allowance, pip_daily_living_standard) rises 3.77% to 3.84% (rates rounded to the penny)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 1.0002893918995441, "delta": 1.0996892182681128e-05 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.03801099689218268, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_child_element", "uc_carer_element", "child_benefit", "carers_allowance", "pip_dl" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "Measured: the UC child element rises 3.80% in April 2026; the CPI-linked working-age basket (uc_child_element, uc_carer_element, child_benefit_eldest, child_benefit_additional, carers_allowance, pip_daily_living_standard) rises 3.77% to 3.84% (rates rounded to the penny)." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8f3e291573a493e3571a", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC uprating total (Figure 8)", "name": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-outlook-2026/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "universal_credit_standard_allowance", "benefit_verbatim": "Universal Credit standard allowance", "component": "total April uprating", "country": "UK", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "value_verbatim": "6.2%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.062, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.062, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.061878342580096835, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 6.19% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.998037783549949, "delta": -0.00012165741990316503 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.061878342580096835, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 6.19% in April 2026." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2b4af19f0d204adacdab", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC uprating total (Figure 8)", "name": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-outlook-2026/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "universal_credit_standard_allowance", "benefit_verbatim": "Universal Credit standard allowance", "component": "total April uprating", "country": "UK", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "value_verbatim": "3.1%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.031, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.031, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.030997766087030865, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 3.10% in April 2027." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9999279382913182, "delta": -2.23391296913511e-06 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.030997766087030865, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 3.10% in April 2027." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "658dfe75c74b9348c964", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC uprating total (Figure 8)", "name": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-outlook-2026/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "universal_credit_standard_allowance", "benefit_verbatim": "Universal Credit standard allowance", "component": "total April uprating", "country": "UK", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "value_verbatim": "2.9%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.028999999999999998, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.028999999999999998, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.028902384922250723, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 2.89% in April 2028." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.996633962836232, "delta": -9.761507774927458e-05 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.028902384922250723, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 2.89% in April 2028." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c2a86001bca559feb249", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "UC uprating total (Figure 8)", "name": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "window": "", "publication_title": "Living Standards Outlook 2026", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/living-standards-outlook-2026/", "metric": "benefit_uprating_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "share", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benefit": "universal_credit_standard_allowance", "benefit_verbatim": "Universal Credit standard allowance", "component": "total April uprating", "country": "UK", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "value_verbatim": "2.9%" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "baseline", "reform_key": "03395a10966bb849", "external_value": 0.028999999999999998, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.028999999999999998, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": 0.027845194470407453, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 2.78% in April 2029." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable", "ratio": 0.9601791196692225, "delta": -0.0011548055295925452 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.027845194470407453, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.147.2", "data_bundle": "parameter-tree", "release": "parameter-tree", "construction": "Parameter-tree read-back on policyengine-uk 2.147.2, no simulation: each rate read at 1 June of each year (inside the tax year from April), the April uprating taken as the year-on-year rise.", "policyengine_variables": [ "uc_standard_allowance" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-22T19:33:16+00:00", "annotations": [ "Parameter-tree read-back, no simulation: the April rise in the rate PolicyEngine-UK holds. April 2026 rates are legislated amounts entered in the tree, so those comparisons check the entry, not a model.", "PolicyEngine-UK sets the UC standard allowance as CPI-only uprating from 2025-26 plus the Universal Credit Act 2025 uplift (2.3%, 3.1%, 4.0% and 4.8% for 2026-27 to 2029-30, not compounded), so its April 2027 to 2029 rises move with its CPI forecast.", "Measured: gov.dwp.universal_credit.standard_allowance.amount.SINGLE_OLD rises 2.78% in April 2029." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "comparable" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "58fb680ac65c11b696f6", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Black holes and consolidations: Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Black holes and consolidations: Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Black-holes-and-consolidations.pdf", "metric": "caseload", 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PolicyEngine removes the limit for 2025-26 (the removed_2025 world, the count set to the repo's no-limit sentinel for 2025) and compares it with current law, which applies the limit until 6 April 2026.", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "Children are HBAI dependent children on both sides: RF's cited method reweights 'the numbers of dependent children of each age', and PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child.", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 212k fewer children on each world's own median; 223k with the line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer children in poverty." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6416192529639285, "delta": -118265.64652190357 }, "results": [ { "value": 211734.35347809643, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "current law minus the 2025-26 removal, children below 60% of each world's own AHC median, engine period 2025; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Children in relative poverty after housing costs, but the two readings of RF's unstated median convention (each world's own median, attached; the with-limit world's, in the measured note) differ by more than half RF's 10,000 rounding, so the attached value is one construction of the concept.", "RF's 'today' is 2025-26. PolicyEngine removes the limit for 2025-26 (the removed_2025 world, the count set to the repo's no-limit sentinel for 2025) and compares it with current law, which applies the limit until 6 April 2026.", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "Children are HBAI dependent children on both sides: RF's cited method reweights 'the numbers of dependent children of each age', and PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child.", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 212k fewer children on each world's own median; 223k with the line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer children in poverty." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a6acbe49f0fc0e66272c", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "the two-child limit retained (poverty-producing effect, year-on-year increment)", "scenario": "two-child limit retained", "sign_convention": "positive = additional children in poverty in that year as a result of the two-child limit (year-on-year increment)", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "+48,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d1bbe057b553cc43", "external_value": 48000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 48000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -216072.2556438446, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:32.265405+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = more in poverty, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -4.5015053259134294, "delta": -264072.2556438446 }, "results": [ { "value": -216072.2556438446, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:32.265405+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = more in poverty, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "28e86283a834e1820805", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "the two-child limit retained (poverty-producing effect, year-on-year increment)", "scenario": "two-child limit retained", "sign_convention": "positive = additional children in poverty in that year as a result of the two-child limit (year-on-year increment)", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "+10,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d1bbe057b553cc43", "external_value": 10000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 10000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -227572.6849399805, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:40.257971+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = more in poverty, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -22.75726849399805, "delta": -237572.6849399805 }, "results": [ { "value": -227572.6849399805, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2027.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:40.257971+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2027 on the certified world proxies FY 2027-28; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = more in poverty, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "bdfe6482f25b49cb8692", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2029, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2028-29", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "the two-child limit retained (poverty-producing effect, year-on-year increment)", "scenario": "two-child limit retained", "sign_convention": "positive = additional children in poverty in that year as a result of the two-child limit (year-on-year increment)", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "+26,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d1bbe057b553cc43", "external_value": 26000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 26000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -249824.78027248383, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:47.885030+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = more in poverty, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -9.608645395095532, "delta": -275824.7802724838 }, "results": [ { "value": -249824.78027248383, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2028.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:47.885030+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2028 on the certified world proxies FY 2028-29; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = more in poverty, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2aacf2bc492595af956d", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "all children living in families in receipt of UC in England eligible for free school meals from September 2026", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "50,000-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "993a8bb60feeb1dc", "external_value": 50000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -50000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "3463546ddd5fc45cf054", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF 'current policy' projection at 30 Oct 2025: pre-Budget policy including the FSM extension and UC over-indexation, excluding the Scottish Government's two-child-limit mitigation; OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, HBAI 2023-24 base", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "repeal the two-child limit in full, lift the benefit cap and permanently relink LHA rates to local rents", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "660,000 fewer children growing up in poverty in 2029-30" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2eadd9a0352b3856", "external_value": 660000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -660000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "48004be88bba6fc4f9dc", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Press release: Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty thanks to scrapping of two-child limit and expansion of Free School Meals (Lindsay Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Press release: Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty thanks to scrapping of two-child limit and expansion of Free School Meals (Lindsay Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/rate-of-child-poverty-set-to-fall-over-the-parliament-with-over-half-a-million-children-lifted-out-of-poverty-thanks-to-scrapping-of-two-child-limit-and-expansion-of-free-school-meals/", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "Child Poverty Strategy package plus latest economic data", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty (2029-30 vs 2024-25)", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "equivalent to 300,000 fewer children growing up in poverty by the end of the Parliament" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "81f134d3f8fb5d6a", "external_value": 300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "482d3c164f22dfe4fff5", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF 'current policy' projection at 30 Oct 2025: pre-Budget policy including the FSM extension and UC over-indexation, excluding the Scottish Government's two-child-limit mitigation; OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, HBAI 2023-24 base", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__two_child_limit_exempt_working_families", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "An exemption condition on the limit (work status, hours) is a formula construction; the limit parameter has no eligibility conditions.", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "scrapping the two-child limit only for families in work (earning more than the equivalent of 16 hours per week at the National Living Wage)", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty vs the current-policy projection", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "scrapping the two-child limit only for families in work would reduce child poverty by 330,000 by that date" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__two_child_limit_exempt_working_families", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "acbdd89d84f25b98", "external_value": 330000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -330000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5b249b41dfc7a81daaf2", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Press release: Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty thanks to scrapping of two-child limit and expansion of Free School Meals (Lindsay Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Press release: Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty thanks to scrapping of two-child limit and expansion of Free School Meals (Lindsay Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/rate-of-child-poverty-set-to-fall-over-the-parliament-with-over-half-a-million-children-lifted-out-of-poverty-thanks-to-scrapping-of-two-child-limit-and-expansion-of-free-school-meals/", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF projection without the Child Poverty Strategy policies (two-child limit repeal, Free School Meals expansion), OBR November 2025 economic assumptions", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "policies in the Child Poverty Strategy (two-child limit repeal + Free School Meals expansion)", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "lift more than half a million children out of poverty by 2029-30" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7b74842878756a18", "external_value": 500000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -500000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5cd40f11fde6cd6df668", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF 'current policy' projection at 30 Oct 2025: pre-Budget policy including the FSM extension and UC over-indexation, excluding the Scottish Government's two-child-limit mitigation; OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, HBAI 2023-24 base", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "scrap the two-child limit in its entirety (from April 2026)", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "480,000 fewer children growing in poverty in 2029-30 than the counterfactual" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3d5845ce37917549", "external_value": 480000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 480000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "latest": { "value": 445085.27309934795, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "with-limit world minus current law, children below 60% of each world's own AHC median, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: children in relative poverty after housing costs, UK, static against a world that keeps the two-child limit. RF does not say whether a policy scenario's line is re-derived from that scenario's own median; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median, the measured note gives it with the line held at the with-limit world's median, and the two differ by no more than half RF's 10,000 rounding.", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "Children are HBAI dependent children on both sides: RF's cited method reweights 'the numbers of dependent children of each age', and PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child.", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 445k fewer children on each world's own median; 448k with the line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer children in poverty.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (253k children AHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +86k, data Populace to Microcosm +103k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +6k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +102k; the releases that move it most are 2.147.1 +116k, 2.148.2 -42k, 2.146.3 +38k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9272609856236416, "delta": -34914.72690065205 }, "results": [ { "value": 255067.05941343307, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:55.234418+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = fewer in poverty; PE oriented to it", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 445085.27309934795, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "with-limit world minus current law, children below 60% of each world's own AHC median, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: children in relative poverty after housing costs, UK, static against a world that keeps the two-child limit. RF does not say whether a policy scenario's line is re-derived from that scenario's own median; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median, the measured note gives it with the line held at the with-limit world's median, and the two differ by no more than half RF's 10,000 rounding.", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "Children are HBAI dependent children on both sides: RF's cited method reweights 'the numbers of dependent children of each age', and PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child.", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 445k fewer children on each world's own median; 448k with the line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer children in poverty.", "Against PolicyEngine's September 2026 result on these benchmarks (253k children AHC: Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2, under-18s, line held at the with-limit median), this run moves by: engine 2.89.2 to 2.132.6 +86k, data Populace to Microcosm +103k, under-18s to HBAI dependent children +6k, fixed line to each world's own median -3k (route +0k). policyengine-uk 2.148.3, the docs page's engine, adds +102k; the releases that move it most are 2.147.1 +116k, 2.148.2 -42k, 2.146.3 +38k (DECOMPOSITION.md, step 6 by release). Measured: results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/DECOMPOSITION.json." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "627df5abf9ec51a88989", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF 'current policy' projection at 30 Oct 2025: pre-Budget policy including the FSM extension and UC over-indexation, excluding the Scottish Government's two-child-limit mitigation; OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, HBAI 2023-24 base", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "horizon": "additional by 2029-30 on top of the 330,000 today", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "scrap the two-child limit in full", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty (increment over the 330,000 today)", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "save a further 150,000 children from that fate by 2029-30" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "3d5845ce37917549", "external_value": 150000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 150000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "latest": { "value": 233350.91962125152, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "(with-limit minus current law, 2029) minus (current law minus the 2025-26 removal, 2025), children below 60% of each world's own AHC median; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "RF's 'further 150,000' is its 2029-30 figure (480,000) less its 2025-26 one (330,000). PolicyEngine's value is the same difference of its own two runs: the 2029-30 removal against the with-limit world, less the 2025-26 removal against current law in 2025-26 (which still applies the limit).", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "Children are HBAI dependent children on both sides: RF's cited method reweights 'the numbers of dependent children of each age', and PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child.", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 233k fewer children on each world's own median; 225k with the line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer children in poverty." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.5556727974750102, "delta": 83350.91962125152 }, "results": [ { "value": 255067.05941343307, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:55.234418+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = fewer in poverty; PE oriented to it", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 233350.91962125152, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "(with-limit minus current law, 2029) minus (current law minus the 2025-26 removal, 2025), children below 60% of each world's own AHC median; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "RF's 'further 150,000' is its 2029-30 figure (480,000) less its 2025-26 one (330,000). PolicyEngine's value is the same difference of its own two runs: the 2029-30 removal against the with-limit world, less the 2025-26 removal against current law in 2025-26 (which still applies the limit).", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "Children are HBAI dependent children on both sides: RF's cited method reweights 'the numbers of dependent children of each age', and PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child.", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 233k fewer children on each world's own median; 225k with the line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer children in poverty." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "6e183e1d9ded9bb34a7b", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Press release: Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty thanks to scrapping of two-child limit and expansion of Free School Meals (Lindsay Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Press release: Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty thanks to scrapping of two-child limit and expansion of Free School Meals (Lindsay Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/rate-of-child-poverty-set-to-fall-over-the-parliament-with-over-half-a-million-children-lifted-out-of-poverty-thanks-to-scrapping-of-two-child-limit-and-expansion-of-free-school-meals/", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF projection without the Child Poverty Strategy policies (two-child limit repeal, Free School Meals expansion), OBR November 2025 economic assumptions", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "the lifting of the two-child limit", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "425,000 fewer children living in poverty by 2029-30 from the lifting of the two-child limit" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "af0e49e170b6bfbf", "external_value": 425000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 425000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "latest": { "value": 255067.05941343307, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:55.234418+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = fewer in poverty; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6001577868551367, "delta": -169932.94058656693 }, "results": [ { "value": 255067.05941343307, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:55.234418+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = fewer in poverty; PE oriented to it" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "95723ad0ea666078a6c2", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "baseline_policy": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF 'current policy' projection at 30 Oct 2025: pre-Budget policy including the FSM extension and UC over-indexation, excluding the Scottish Government's two-child-limit mitigation; OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, HBAI 2023-24 base", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__three_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "moving to a three-child limit", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty vs the current-policy projection", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "moving to a three-child limit would reduce child poverty by 350,000 in 2029-30" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__three_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a1e8d9aad38f24ae", "external_value": 350000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 350000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "latest": { "value": 318059.5270202011, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "with-limit world (2 children) minus the three-child world, children below 60% of each world's own AHC median, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: children in relative poverty after housing costs, UK, static against a world that keeps the two-child limit. RF does not say whether a policy scenario's line is re-derived from that scenario's own median; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median, the measured note gives it with the line held at the with-limit world's median, and the two differ by no more than half RF's 10,000 rounding.", "A three-child limit scored as RF scores it, 'compared to our projection for that year based on current policy', which keeps the two-child limit: the Universal Credit child count set to 3 against the with-limit world (2). The September 2026 result on this claim compared a three-child limit with current law, where the limit is already removed, so it measured the opposite change (a three-child limit replacing no limit).", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "Children are HBAI dependent children on both sides: RF's cited method reweights 'the numbers of dependent children of each age', and PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child.", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 318k fewer children on each world's own median; 319k with the line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer children in poverty." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9087415057720031, "delta": -31940.472979798913 }, "results": [ { "value": -82443.00550866127, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "forward_delta_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025_option__three_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025_option__three_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T16:20:41.640543+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world as served (current law); the claim is scored against rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = fewer in poverty; PE oriented to it", "History: the campaign-20260925-uk-ab2025 answer (Populace UK 2023, policyengine-uk 2.89.2) this claim carried when lane uk-two-child-limit-poverty took it over on 2026-10-23; the certified Microcosm pair's answer is the later entry." ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "constructed" }, { "value": 318059.5270202011, "status": "comparable", "engine_version": "2.132.6", "data_bundle": "microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71", "release": "1019T083323Z", "construction": "with-limit world (2 children) minus the three-child world, children below 60% of each world's own AHC median, engine period 2029; artifact results/uk/two_child_limit_poverty/pair-pe6.11.0_uk2.132.6_microcosm-uk-2024-25-national-20261019T083323Z-6cba5d71.json", "policyengine_variables": [ "in_relative_poverty_ahc", "is_hbai_dependent_child" ], "computed_at": "2026-10-26T17:46:49.070369+00:00", "annotations": [ "Same concept: children in relative poverty after housing costs, UK, static against a world that keeps the two-child limit. RF does not say whether a policy scenario's line is re-derived from that scenario's own median; PolicyEngine's value uses each world's own median, the measured note gives it with the line held at the with-limit world's median, and the two differ by no more than half RF's 10,000 rounding.", "A three-child limit scored as RF scores it, 'compared to our projection for that year based on current policy', which keeps the two-child limit: the Universal Credit child count set to 3 against the with-limit world (2). The September 2026 result on this claim compared a three-child limit with current law, where the limit is already removed, so it measured the opposite change (a three-child limit replacing no limit).", "Different counterfactual vintages: RF's is its 30 October 2025 current-policy projection (OBR March 2025 earnings, Bank of England August 2025 CPI, modelled changes applied to the outturn year); PolicyEngine's is the certified pair's world (Microcosm UK 2024-25, policyengine-uk 2.132.6 uprating) with the limit reinstated.", "Neither side includes the Scottish Government's proposed mitigation of the limit: RF excludes it, and policyengine-uk 2.132.6's Two Child Limit Payment is off in every year (the regulations were not laid).", "Children are HBAI dependent children on both sides: RF's cited method reweights 'the numbers of dependent children of each age', and PolicyEngine counts is_hbai_dependent_child.", "RF's financial year 2029-30 is claim period 2030 and PolicyEngine engine period 2029 (by default policyengine-uk 2.132.6 reads each parameter at 30 April of that year; parameters flagged fiscal_year_blend are averaged over the year, and those flagged preserve_calendar_dates keep their statutory dates).", "Computed on the certified pair through policyengine.py's managed route: the with-limit world sets gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count to 2 from 2025 to 2035 (the registered pre_ab2025 world); current law is the certified world as served, which removes the limit from 6 April 2026. Both are static: no behavioural response runs.", "Measured: 318k fewer children on each world's own median; 319k with the line held at the with-limit world's median.", "PE oriented to it: positive = fewer children in poverty." ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aee5756c05897fcd8829", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "the two-child limit retained (poverty-producing effect, year-on-year increment)", "scenario": "two-child limit retained", "sign_convention": "positive = additional children in poverty in that year as a result of the two-child limit (year-on-year increment)", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "+63,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__scrap_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d1bbe057b553cc43", "external_value": 63000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "result_oriented_to_claim", "external_value_pe_sign": 63000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": -255067.05941343307, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:55.234418+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = more in poverty, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": -4.048683482752906, "delta": -318067.0594134331 }, "results": [ { "value": -255067.05941343307, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "reversal_on_certified_world on the certified world (ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-25T14:10:55.234418+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2029 on the certified world proxies FY 2029-30; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against current_law", "children in poverty, relative_60_median_moving_ahc (housing basis AHC as the claim states)", "claim sign: positive = more in poverty, PE's own orientation" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b86ccbaf60712e079f9b", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "Press release: Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty thanks to scrapping of two-child limit and expansion of Free School Meals (Lindsay Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Press release: Rate of child poverty set to fall over the Parliament, with over half a million children lifted out of poverty thanks to scrapping of two-child limit and expansion of Free School Meals (Lindsay Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/rate-of-child-poverty-set-to-fall-over-the-parliament-with-over-half-a-million-children-lifted-out-of-poverty-thanks-to-scrapping-of-two-child-limit-and-expansion-of-free-school-meals/", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF projection without the Child Poverty Strategy policies (two-child limit repeal, Free School Meals expansion), OBR November 2025 economic assumptions", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "the expansion of Free School Meals", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "a further 80,0000 from the expansion of Free School Meals" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "993931a69ff2d406", "external_value": 80000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -80000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "rf_projection_without_child_poverty_strategy", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bca2c68b4bd18672b47e", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_count_change", "unit_concept": "children", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "rf_current_policy_projection_2025_10_30", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "counterfactual": "RF 'current policy' projection at 30 Oct 2025: pre-Budget policy including the FSM extension and UC over-indexation, excluding the Scottish Government's two-child-limit mitigation; 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it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "poverty_line": "relative_60_median", "reform_hint": "free school meals for all children in UC families in England from September 2026", "sign_convention": "positive = fewer children in poverty", "unit_population": "children", "value_verbatim": "50,000-100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "program": "in_kind", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "993a8bb60feeb1dc", "external_value": 100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__fsm_extension_to_all_uc_families_england", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /free_school|school_meal|fsm/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 3 ['free_school_fruit_veg', 'free_school_milk', 'free_school_meals']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "free_school_meals is an INPUT variable with no formula at the pin, and the benefit is in kind, outside the HBAI income concept the poverty claims use; it is a world descriptor, not a scored transfer.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "19d3ed5d464de9b0743f", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": 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"sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.32, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "851813e1ee63f1c1eb55", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "window": "", "publication_title": "No half measures: Setting child poverty on a downward course at the Autumn Budget (Clegg, Judge)", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/10/No-half-measures_v2.pdf", "metric": "poverty_rate", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__uk_ets_extended_to_eu_scope_aviation_and_shipping", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /emission|ets\\b|aviation|shipping|carbon/. Parameters: 40 node(s) ['gov.contrib.ubi_center.carbon_tax.consumer_incidence', 'gov.contrib.ubi_center.carbon_tax.rate', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.housing_costs_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.local_authority_targets.ons_income.net_income_bhc_uprating_factor', 'gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.carbon_intensity', 'gov.economic_assumptions.indices.carbon_intensity']. Variables: 2 ['carbon_tax', 'carbon_consumption']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Emitter-side carbon price with no household incidence path at the pin.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "22f95f66277b53d65d62", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30, nominal, \u00a3bn, rounded", "name": "Black holes and consolidations: Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Black holes and consolidations: Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Black-holes-and-consolidations.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_basis": "RF calculations, including use of the IPPR tax-benefit model; HMRC, Direct effects of illustrative tax changes, June 2025; HMRC, Tax relief statistics, December 2024; HMRC, Private pension statistics, July 2025; CenTax; National Food Strategy", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2029-30", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "reform_hint": "Introduce Membership NI for LLPs", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "1" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "program": "national_insurance", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7718692432a4c4f2", "external_value": 1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__nics_on_partnership_income", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /partner|llp|self_employment_income|class_4/. Parameters: 5 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.income_tax.bases.taxable_self_employment_income_deductions', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.additional', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit', 'gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit']. Variables: 6 ['self_employment_income', 'ni_class_4_maximum', 'ni_class_4', 'ni_class_4_main', 'partners_unused_personal_allowance', 'taxable_self_employment_income']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Partnership and LLP profits are not identified within self_employment_income on the bundle, and Class 4 NICs (the nearest lever, ni_class_4 at 6% above the LPL) applies to all self-employed; a charge on partners only cannot be targeted.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "23c264c23ad8772fd465", "source": "resolution_foundation", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30, nominal, \u00a3bn, rounded", "name": "Black holes and consolidations: Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025", "window": "", "publication_title": "Black holes and consolidations: Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025", "url": "https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2025/11/Black-holes-and-consolidations.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2030, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "costing_basis": "RF calculations, including use of the IPPR tax-benefit model; 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"external_value": 676000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 676000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1833ee126aebd5e0538d", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "income_aggregate", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "aggregate": "tax_base", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "reform_hint": "housing \u2018fairness\u2019 taxes: a Vacant Property Tax (1% annual value tax), a Non-Resident Purchases Tax (25% of sale value) and a Rapid Sales Tax (half of profits on homes sold within 12 months)", "subgroup": "annual profit on homes 'flipped' within 12 months", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a31bn" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2257e67f93b28594", "external_value": 1000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1c9e2564bae0e131aff5", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "cumulative", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "cumulative", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "horizon": "since 2010 (cumulative, 'next year')", "measure_type": "cumulative revenue foregone from the fuel duty freeze", "reform_hint": "the fuel duty freeze since 2010 (cumulative)", "sign_convention": "positive = cost to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3150 billion" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "6e112c767b02a151", "external_value": 150000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "opposite", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:opposite", "external_value_pe_sign": -150000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "26c4926c11f63aa73464", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Rapid Sales Tax (half of flipping gains)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "reform_hint": "housing \u2018fairness\u2019 taxes: a Vacant Property Tax (1% annual value tax), a Non-Resident Purchases Tax (25% of sale value) and a Rapid Sales Tax (half of profits on homes sold within 12 months)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a3500m a year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2257e67f93b28594", "external_value": 500000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 500000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4d1f1938ca7ec74522d9", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "central", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "central", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "likelihood_rating": "1/5", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "reform_hint": "a two-rate Minimum Unit Tax on alcohol (36p, 46p on spirits) alongside a 65p Minimum Unit Price", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3659 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b08f0bfb4fe30be7", "external_value": 659000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 659000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /alcohol|beer|wine|spirit|minimum_unit|duty/. Parameters: 124 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.abolish', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold']. Variables: 5 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption', 'food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption', 'stamp_duty_land_tax', 'fuel_duty']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /alcohol|beer|wine|spirit|minimum_unit|duty/. Parameters: 124 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.abolish', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold']. Variables: 5 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption', 'food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption', 'stamp_duty_land_tax', 'fuel_duty']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "59e33c8f96ef8b28121d", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "likelihood_rating": "3/5", "reform_hint": "housing \u2018fairness\u2019 taxes: a Vacant Property Tax (1% annual value tax), a Non-Resident Purchases Tax (25% of sale value) and a Rapid Sales Tax (half of profits on homes sold within 12 months)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a33.9bn" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2257e67f93b28594", "external_value": 3900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "709736add7ca70139418", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_high", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Vacant Property Tax (1% annual value tax)", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_high", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "reform_hint": "housing \u2018fairness\u2019 taxes: a Vacant Property Tax (1% annual value tax), a Non-Resident Purchases Tax (25% of sale value) and a Rapid Sales Tax (half of profits on homes sold within 12 months)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "up to \u00a32bn a year" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2257e67f93b28594", "external_value": 2000000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 2000000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], 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"autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "likelihood_rating": "1/5", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__end_fuel_duty_freeze_and_start_road_pricing", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Ending the freeze is expressible (fuel_duty lever); road pricing is not: no mileage on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "ending the freeze on fuel duty (and introducing road pricing, revenue dependent on model)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a33.4bn a year" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__end_fuel_duty_freeze_and_start_road_pricing", "program": "fuel_duty", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "67bcf8ee66ff7b8f", "external_value": 3400000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 3400000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__end_fuel_duty_freeze_and_start_road_pricing", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Ending the freeze is expressible (fuel_duty lever); road pricing is not: no mileage on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /road_pricing|mileage|per_mile|vehicle/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__end_fuel_duty_freeze_and_start_road_pricing", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Ending the freeze is expressible (fuel_duty lever); road pricing is not: no mileage on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /road_pricing|mileage|per_mile|vehicle/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 2 ['num_vehicles', 'owns_vehicle']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Ending the freeze is expressible (fuel_duty lever); road pricing is not: no mileage on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "83963d7c3c56436db955", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "additional 46p rate on spirits (increment over the single-rate MUT)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "reform_hint": "a two-rate Minimum Unit Tax (46p on spirits) alongside a 65p Minimum Unit Price", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3177 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b08f0bfb4fe30be7", "external_value": 177000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 177000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /alcohol|beer|wine|spirit|minimum_unit|duty/. Parameters: 124 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.abolish', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold']. Variables: 5 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption', 'food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption', 'stamp_duty_land_tax', 'fuel_duty']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /alcohol|beer|wine|spirit|minimum_unit|duty/. Parameters: 124 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.abolish', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold']. Variables: 5 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption', 'food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption', 'stamp_duty_land_tax', 'fuel_duty']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "87560e05f04693eb275a", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "likelihood_rating": "4/5", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "reform_hint": "Horserace Betting Levy to 20%; betting duty on horse racing to 5%; Remote Gaming Duty to 50%; General Betting Duty harmonised across all betting products at 25%; small businesses exempt", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "around \u00a31.9bn" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "program": "gambling_duties", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "501ecc27ac40b61f", "external_value": 1900000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1900000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__gambling_duties_consolidated_or_raised", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /gambl|betting|gaming|lottery|machine_games/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No gambling expenditure, gambling duty or gaming yield at the pin (see the announced gambling-duty entry).", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "8a470b663be003272527", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "Non-Resident Purchases Tax (25% of sale value)", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "reform_hint": "housing \u2018fairness\u2019 taxes: a Vacant Property Tax (1% annual value tax), a Non-Resident Purchases Tax (25% of sale value) and a Rapid Sales Tax (half of profits on homes sold within 12 months)", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "more than \u00a31.3bn" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2257e67f93b28594", "external_value": 1300000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 1300000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "aa8fb00bf52d456e97a1", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "central", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "central", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "reform_hint": "a 65p Minimum Unit Price on alcohol (without a Minimum Unit Tax)", "scenario": "65p Minimum Unit Price alone", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "a little over \u00a3300 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b08f0bfb4fe30be7", "external_value": -300000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -300000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /alcohol|beer|wine|spirit|minimum_unit|duty/. Parameters: 124 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.abolish', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold']. Variables: 5 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption', 'food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption', 'stamp_duty_land_tax', 'fuel_duty']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /alcohol|beer|wine|spirit|minimum_unit|duty/. Parameters: 124 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.abolish', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold']. Variables: 5 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption', 'food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption', 'stamp_duty_land_tax', 'fuel_duty']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "bf51315bcbd6a03c8b07", "source": "smf", "country": "UK", "source_column": "", "name": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "window": "", "publication_title": "The impossible Budget: Options and expectations for the Government\u2019s \u2018smorgasbord\u2019 (briefing paper)", "url": "https://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/The-impossible-Budget-November-2025-1.pdf", "metric": "revenue_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "36p single-rate MUT alongside 65p MUP, vs MUP alone", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "reform_hint": "a 36p Minimum Unit Tax alongside a 65p Minimum Unit Price", "sign_convention": "positive = yield to the Exchequer", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3481 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "program": "indirect_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "b08f0bfb4fe30be7", "external_value": 481000000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:exchequer:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 481000000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /alcohol|beer|wine|spirit|minimum_unit|duty/. Parameters: 124 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.abolish', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold']. Variables: 5 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption', 'food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption', 'stamp_duty_land_tax', 'fuel_duty']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025_option__alcohol_minimum_unit_tax", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No alcohol duty at the pin; alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption is a combined LCFS expenditure category with no unit content.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /alcohol|beer|wine|spirit|minimum_unit|duty/. Parameters: 124 node(s) ['gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.petrol_and_diesel', 'gov.hmrc.fuel_duty.rural_fuel_duty_relief', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.abolish', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].threshold', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[0].rate', 'gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.non_residential.purchase[1].threshold']. Variables: 5 ['in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area', 'alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption', 'food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption', 'stamp_duty_land_tax', 'fuel_duty']. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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it in full", "sign_convention": "positive = increase in the number expected to face hunger and hardship", "subgroup": "all people", "value_verbatim": "a 7% decrease" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", "program": "universal_credit", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "universal_credit", "child_tax_credit" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.child_count", "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "7a6e8bc22701a1c1", "external_value": -7.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:more_poverty:same", "external_value_pe_sign": -7.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "wpi_hunger_and_hardship_projection_2026_27", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "0a1354e77b24ee6426d1", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-charge-on-winter-fuel-payments/winter-fuel-payments-charge", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Income Tax charge equal to the full value of a Winter Fuel Payment / Pension Age Winter Heating Payment for pensioners with total income over \u00a335,000 (UK wide)", "subgroup": "self-employed individuals who receive winter payments and have total income above the threshold", "value_verbatim": "approximately 100,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": 100000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 100000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2a71d541c9080c9c6e19", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-charge-on-winter-fuel-payments/winter-fuel-payments-charge", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Income Tax charge equal to the full value of a Winter Fuel Payment / Pension Age Winter Heating Payment for pensioners with total income over \u00a335,000 (UK wide)", "subgroup": "Self Assessment individuals who also have PAYE income", "value_verbatim": "around 800,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": 800000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 800000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "37ff17ad6fa4e3527d92", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-charge-on-winter-fuel-payments/winter-fuel-payments-charge", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Income Tax charge equal to the full value of a Winter Fuel Payment / Pension Age Winter Heating Payment for pensioners with total income over \u00a335,000 (UK wide)", "subgroup": "individuals in receipt of winter payments with total income over the \u00a335,000 threshold", "value_verbatim": "approximately 2.2 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": 2200000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 2200000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "39f596333b9768bab08a", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-charge-on-winter-fuel-payments/winter-fuel-payments-charge", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Income Tax charge equal to the full value of a Winter Fuel Payment / Pension Age Winter Heating Payment for pensioners with total income over \u00a335,000 (UK wide)", "subgroup": "individuals in Self Assessment (including around 800,000 who also have PAYE income)", "value_verbatim": "900,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": 900000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 900000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f1a423d2857ed026f1b2", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-charge-on-winter-fuel-payments/winter-fuel-payments-charge", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2025-26", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Income Tax charge equal to the full value of a Winter Fuel Payment / Pension Age Winter Heating Payment for pensioners with total income over \u00a335,000 (UK wide)", "subgroup": "PAYE only individuals (recovered through tax code)", "value_verbatim": "Approximately 1.3 million" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": 1300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 1300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e69159eecd7da376d2ac", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles \u2014 benefits in kind easement", "window": "", "publication_title": "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles \u2014 benefits in kind easement", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/benefits-in-kind-easement-for-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles/plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-benefits-in-kind-easement", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "reform_hint": "Temporary benefit in kind easement for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle company cars, retrospective from 1 January 2025 to 5 April 2028", "subgroup": "employees who have private use of a PHEV through their employer", "value_verbatim": "an estimated 150,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a44dda95ba7ab498", "external_value": 150000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 150000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__phev_emissions_standard_and_bik_easement", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /phev|emissions_standard|benefit_in_kind|company_car/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car benefit in kind by emissions band is not modelled.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "f85196bbed8cf79c71e9", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Removal of tax relief on non-reimbursed homeworking expenses", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removal of tax relief on non-reimbursed homeworking expenses", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-removal-of-the-tax-relief-for-additional-homeworking-expenses/removal-of-tax-relief-on-non-reimbursed-homeworking-expenses", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "persons", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "reform_hint": "Removal of the tax relief for non-reimbursed additional homeworking expenses from 6 April 2026", "subgroup": "individuals losing the tax relief on home working expenses", "value_verbatim": "an estimated 300,000" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 300000.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 300000.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). 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Table 4.2 of Budget 2025)", "value_verbatim": "Approximately 38,500" }, "measure": null, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "9ce029ef5f810530", "external_value": 38500.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 38500.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e73c47b6175d5e76ac76", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 unused pension funds and death benefits", "window": "", "publication_title": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 unused pension funds and death benefits", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/inheritance-tax-unused-pension-funds-and-death-benefits/inheritance-tax-unused-pension-funds-and-death-benefits", "metric": "affected_count", "unit_concept": "estates", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "estates with an IHT liability where previously they would not", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "policy_vintage": "Autumn Budget 2024 measure", "reform_hint": "Unused pension funds and pension death benefits brought within the value of a person\u2019s estate for Inheritance Tax from 6 April 2027 (announced Autumn Budget 2024; 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "930d8e4ddc4b558a78e9", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "IHT paid", "name": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 thresholds", "window": "", "publication_title": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 thresholds", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/inheritance-tax-thresholds/inheritance-tax-thresholds", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "percent", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "point_in_time", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "measure_type": "share of IHT paid", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "IHT nil-rate band \u00a3325,000, residence nil-rate band \u00a3175,000, RNRB taper \u00a32 million and \u00a31 million APR/BPR allowance fixed for 2030-31", "subgroup": "estates of women (men 49%)", "value_verbatim": "51%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 51.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 51.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "c262cdfa9f20b12c5415", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "IHT paid", "name": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 thresholds", "window": "", "publication_title": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 thresholds", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/inheritance-tax-thresholds/inheritance-tax-thresholds", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "percent", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2025, "time_basis": "point_in_time", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "administrative_fact", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "measure_type": "share of IHT paid", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "IHT nil-rate band \u00a3325,000, residence nil-rate band \u00a3175,000, RNRB taper \u00a32 million and \u00a31 million APR/BPR allowance fixed for 2030-31", "subgroup": "estates of individuals aged 75 or over", "value_verbatim": "79%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 79.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 79.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. 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Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "26af377dbb089a50281e", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2025-26", "name": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-charge-on-winter-fuel-payments/winter-fuel-payments-charge", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "percent", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2026, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", 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"ab2025__property_income_separate_rates", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.additional", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.basic", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.property.higher" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "2813c0b5ccaaec98", "external_value": 6.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 6.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e6654688934ed0be35fe", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2029-30", "name": "Income Tax \u2014 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "4484572cd69664d2901a", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Changes to Employee Car Ownership Schemes (ECOS)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Changes to Employee Car Ownership Schemes (ECOS)", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-employee-car-ownership-schemes-for-income-tax/changes-to-employee-car-ownership-schemes-ecos", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "percent", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "comparator": "82% in the UK adult population", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Employee Car Ownership Schemes brought within the benefit in kind rules from 6 April 2030 (delayed from 6 April 2026; transitional rules to 6 April 2032)", "subgroup": "White \u2014 English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British ethnic background (company car recipients)", "value_verbatim": "88%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "82d535fae699c3f1", "external_value": 88.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 88.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. 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Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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NICs PT/LPL, UEL/UPL, UST/AUST aligned", "subgroup": "male", "value_verbatim": "53%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "income_tax", "ni_class_1_employee", "ni_class_1_employer", "ni_class_4" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.hmrc.income_tax.allowances.personal_allowance.amount", "gov.hmrc.income_tax.rates.uk[1].threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.primary_threshold", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds.upper_earnings_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.lower_profits_limit", "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.thresholds.upper_profits_limit" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e542376bc4ed0687", "external_value": 53.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 53.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9453c2e77447027e937c", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 thresholds", "window": "", "publication_title": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 thresholds", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/inheritance-tax-thresholds/inheritance-tax-thresholds", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "percentage_points", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "hmrc_tiin_iht_thresholds_cpi_indexed", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "comparison": "compared to increasing the thresholds with the Consumer Price Index", "component": "increase in the proportion of all UK deaths subject to IHT", "counterfactual": "IHT thresholds increased with CPI (TIIN counterfactual)", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "measure_type": "change_in_share", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "IHT nil-rate band \u00a3325,000, residence nil-rate band \u00a3175,000, RNRB taper \u00a32 million and \u00a31 million APR/BPR allowance fixed for 2030-31", "value_verbatim": "0.3 percentage points" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "e68955493fd243b1", "external_value": 0.3, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.3, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "hmrc_tiin_iht_thresholds_cpi_indexed", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "hmrc_tiin_iht_thresholds_cpi_indexed", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "hmrc_tiin_iht_thresholds_cpi_indexed", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "9504ea0bddbf96428148", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030-31", "name": "Changes to Employee Car Ownership Schemes (ECOS)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Changes to Employee Car Ownership Schemes (ECOS)", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-employee-car-ownership-schemes-for-income-tax/changes-to-employee-car-ownership-schemes-ecos", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "percent", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "comparator": "50% of the UK adult population", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "reform_hint": "Employee Car Ownership Schemes brought within the benefit in kind rules from 6 April 2030 (delayed from 6 April 2026; transitional rules to 6 April 2032)", "subgroup": "male (company car recipients)", "value_verbatim": "79%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "82d535fae699c3f1", "external_value": 79.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 79.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__employee_car_ownership_schemes_bik_delayed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /company_car|car_ownership|benefit_in_kind|bik/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "Company-car / employee-car-ownership benefit in kind is not modelled; no company-car variable on the bundle.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "6ddf518c11df302aefc7", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "each of the next five years", "name": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 thresholds", "window": "", "publication_title": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 thresholds", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/inheritance-tax-thresholds/inheritance-tax-thresholds", "metric": "affected_share", "unit_concept": "percent", "value_kind": "range_low", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "estimate_kind": "range_low", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "measure_type": "level share (unaffected)", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "reform_hint": "IHT nil-rate band \u00a3325,000, residence nil-rate band \u00a3175,000, RNRB taper \u00a32 million and \u00a31 million APR/BPR allowance fixed for 2030-31", "subgroup": "estates forecast to have no IHT liability", "value_verbatim": "More than 90%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "program": "inheritance_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "d5f9776146fbc0b7", "external_value": 90.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 90.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__iht_nil_rate_bands_and_apr_bpr_allowance_frozen_to_2031", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /inherit|estate|probate|nil_rate|bequest|death|agricultural|business_property/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No estates, bequests or inheritance tax at the pin: the parameter tree has no nil-rate band, residence nil-rate band or agricultural/business property relief, and no variable represents a death or an estate.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "25045fb7567d939161e3", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-charge-on-winter-fuel-payments/winter-fuel-payments-charge", "metric": "average_tax_change", "unit_concept": "gbp_per_month", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Income Tax charge equal to the full value of a Winter Fuel Payment / Pension Age Winter Heating Payment for pensioners with total income over \u00a335,000 (UK wide)", "sign_convention": "positive = deduction from the pensioner", "subgroup": "PAYE customer with a typical winter payment of \u00a3200", "value_verbatim": "approximately \u00a317 per month" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": 17.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:tax_increase:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 17.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4af2cabc2ca711cf5b15", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Removal of tax relief on non-reimbursed homeworking expenses", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removal of tax relief on non-reimbursed homeworking expenses", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-removal-of-the-tax-relief-for-additional-homeworking-expenses/removal-of-tax-relief-on-non-reimbursed-homeworking-expenses", "metric": "average_tax_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "per": "individual per year", "reform_hint": "Removal of the tax relief for non-reimbursed additional homeworking expenses from 6 April 2026", "sign_convention": "positive = tax increase for the individual", "subgroup": "basic rate taxpayers", "value_verbatim": "\u00a362" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 62.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:tax_increase:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 62.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "e9622dbc40fc3c7154f7", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026-27", "name": "Removal of tax relief on non-reimbursed homeworking expenses", "window": "", "publication_title": "Removal of tax relief on non-reimbursed homeworking expenses", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-removal-of-the-tax-relief-for-additional-homeworking-expenses/removal-of-tax-relief-on-non-reimbursed-homeworking-expenses", "metric": "average_tax_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "pe_expressibility": "not_expressible", "pe_missing": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "per": "individual per year", "reform_hint": "Removal of the tax relief for non-reimbursed additional homeworking expenses from 6 April 2026", "sign_convention": "positive = tax increase for the individual", "subgroup": "higher rate taxpayers", "value_verbatim": "\u00a3124" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "program": "income_tax", "computability": "not_expressible", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "c0573fb836838a4b", "external_value": 124.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:tax_increase:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 124.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [ { "value": null, "status": "pe_gap", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "pe_gap:not_expressible:ab2025__non_reimbursed_homeworking_expenses_relief_removed", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00", "annotations": [ "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "Searched BOTH the parameter tree and the VARIABLE list for /homework|working_from_home|home_office|expenses_relief/. Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). Re-run at policyengine-uk 2.89.2.", "no run executed: the verdict is the registry's, stated against the certified engine 2.89.2" ], "baseline": "current_law", "status_effective": "pe_gap" } ], "diagnosis": { "class": "pe_gap", "rationale": "No homeworking-expenses relief or claimant identification at the pin (HMRC's TIIN: ~300,000 homeworkers at GBP 62 / GBP 124 a year). The relief is a claim-level administrative item below the survey's resolution.", "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136" } }, { "claim_id": "735a3caf548d4d5e3c16", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "window": "", "publication_title": "Winter Fuel Payments charge", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/income-tax-charge-on-winter-fuel-payments/winter-fuel-payments-charge", "metric": "average_tax_change", "unit_concept": "gbp_per_month", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "pe_expressibility": "expressible", "reform_hint": "Income Tax charge equal to the full value of a Winter Fuel Payment / Pension Age Winter Heating Payment for pensioners with total income over \u00a335,000 (UK wide)", "sign_convention": "positive = deduction from the pensioner", "subgroup": "PAYE customer with a typical winter payment of \u00a3200", "value_verbatim": "approximately \u00a333 per month" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", "program": "winter_fuel_payment", "computability": "expressible", "head_variables": [ "winter_fuel_allowance" ], "parameter_paths": [ "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income" ] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "a24a052f61369e70", "external_value": 33.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "stated:tax_increase:same", "external_value_pe_sign": 33.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "current_law", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "83c4d98e7d6ccc7ca26b", "source": "uk_hmrc", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2027-28", "name": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 unused pension funds and death benefits", "window": "", "publication_title": "Inheritance Tax \u2014 unused pension funds and death benefits", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/inheritance-tax-unused-pension-funds-and-death-benefits/inheritance-tax-unused-pension-funds-and-death-benefits", "metric": "average_tax_change", "unit_concept": "gbp", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2028, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "basis": "static", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "component": "increase in the average IHT liability when pension assets are included in the estate", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2027-28", "geography": "UK", "per": "estate", "policy_vintage": "Autumn Budget 2024 measure", "reform_hint": "Unused pension funds and pension death benefits brought within the value of a person\u2019s estate for Inheritance Tax from 6 April 2027 (announced Autumn Budget 2024; 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Parameters: 0 node(s) []. Variables: 0 []. Both are searched because a parameter-only search misses a variable (#106). 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.43%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0243, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0243, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9d7d3125960af0b5e013", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 All Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Scotland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Scotland", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.62%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0262, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0262, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "dfea10fbec73352a26d4", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 All Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.57%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0157, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0157, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "00ca8a61b864df7eb978", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "No Earners", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "4.07%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0407, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0407, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.2441167432942792, "delta": 0.009935551452077161 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "070e6b84ecd1e37aeeda", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.03%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0003, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0003, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00014691693663847536, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.48972312212825125, "delta": -0.00015308306336152462 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00014691693663847536, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "072ee59fa9225307d465", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.75%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0175, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0175, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.12915650759697261, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 7.380371862684148, "delta": 0.11165650759697261 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.12915650759697261, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "09b2b2aa324d633d3be1", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.64%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0164, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0164, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.15547734367355145, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 9.480325833753136, "delta": 0.13907734367355146 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.15547734367355145, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2bd20cfb2b4c03693c6f", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Disabled", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "3.59%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0359, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0359, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.410461043233347, "delta": 0.01473555145207716 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3b0e14697e1b6ced3c79", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_1", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "8.52%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0852, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0852, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.08655265610443262, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0158762453571903, "delta": 0.001352656104432623 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.08655265610443262, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "55bd48e0cfb720cb63c5", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.78%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0178, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0178, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.8446939018020876, "delta": 0.03283555145207716 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5d0b9e21de6e68c726aa", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.36%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0036, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0036, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.012696823959641805, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 3.5268955443449457, "delta": 0.009096823959641804 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.012696823959641805, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "62155f672c20d34572af", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "With Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.42%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0142, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0142, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 3.5658839050758564, "delta": 0.036435551452077164 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "627e271c6c5a07b50123", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.38%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0138, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0138, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.043290790683271664, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 3.1370138176283815, "delta": 0.029490790683271664 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.043290790683271664, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7487aa61d525f9ae89ee", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Three+ Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.17%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0217, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0217, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.333435550786966, "delta": 0.02893555145207716 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7fff5ac4e819832f1118", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.58%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0158, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0158, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 3.2047817374732377, "delta": 0.03483555145207716 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "86786392455154f0f1d8", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Lone Parent", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.76%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0276, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0276, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.8346214294230856, "delta": 0.023035551452077162 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "92b09b36172b82f59d20", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.51%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0051, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0051, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00024558073698797533, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.04815308568391673, "delta": -0.004854419263012025 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00024558073698797533, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cde884f70fc0bb8c5162", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Two+ Earners", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.49%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0049, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0049, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 10.333786010627993, "delta": 0.04573555145207716 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05063555145207716, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e054cc01a227604e2063", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.65%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0165, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0165, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.06637817215275885, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 4.022919524409627, "delta": 0.049878172152758846 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.06637817215275885, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "eaedb6cb135cd1957051", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.70%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.007, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.007, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.007 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f292a0909e3442b200b0", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_6", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.24%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0124, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0124, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.029032373406956163, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.341320436044852, "delta": 0.016632373406956162 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.029032373406956163, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "255d56a3c497a19e3561", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Elderly Gainers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.64%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0064, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0064, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "370704d2ebe2de16dee4", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Elderly Gainers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Wales", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Wales", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "3.62%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0362, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0362, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c0e822ee6398bdcdc565", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Elderly Gainers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Scotland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Scotland", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "4.89%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0489, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0489, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ca18dd65907da98eb8ee", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Elderly Gainers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Northern Ireland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Northern Ireland", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "4.74%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0474, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0474, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "339a0d337c0bce7d1edb", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "With Children Gainers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Wales", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Wales", "household_type": "With Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.19%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0119, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0119, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7d91861c66ca13b15fed", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "With Children Gainers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Scotland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Scotland", "household_type": "With Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.68%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0068, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0068, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "96866080720361b97e94", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "With Children Gainers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Northern Ireland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Northern Ireland", "household_type": "With Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.79%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0179, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0179, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e1d2e08e4b3c1e1ce251", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "With Children Gainers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "household_type": "With Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.60%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.016, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.016, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3236624e906ec76f0adb", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 All Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Scotland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "Scotland", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "3.01%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0301, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0301, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "918fde64bcd60cc20d14", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 All Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Northern Ireland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "Northern Ireland", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "3.09%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0309, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0309, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a19cceb9cfd146692b0c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 All Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "England", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.67%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0167, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0167, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a9a33adec24f4c9f9c34", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 All Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Wales", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "Wales", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.67%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0267, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0267, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "19f409717e7627967211", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.56%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0156, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0156, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.03207533381069392, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.0561111417111486, "delta": 0.01647533381069392 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.03207533381069392, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1e8ff243adab862ae216", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "With Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.13%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0213, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0213, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9066185520397625, "delta": -0.001989024841553059 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "270e4a45bd61c88e7453", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.90%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.079, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.079, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05968639290805043, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7555239608613978, "delta": -0.01931360709194957 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05968639290805043, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2865366fe48d5d912652", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.37%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0037, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0037, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00013132464301377213, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.035493146760478954, "delta": -0.0035686753569862282 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00013132464301377213, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "38acd111da642671de1d", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.73%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0173, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0173, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0068164302426063725, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.39401330882117763, "delta": -0.010483569757393627 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0068164302426063725, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "399eb0ff4988c7635782", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.61%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0161, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0161, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.1994394508352137, "delta": 0.003210975158446941 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "52c198acb0d8b4f0894d", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Three+ Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "3.01%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0301, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0301, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6415606364932539, "delta": -0.010789024841553058 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7bb46d4f956fbf7e2802", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Lone Parent", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.79%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0279, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0279, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6921496472561627, "delta": -0.00858902484155306 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "823e733f62feb133c2fb", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "No Earners", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "4.14%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0414, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0414, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.46644867532480533, "delta": -0.02208902484155306 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a257d170cde271d97730", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.50%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.015, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.015, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 4.564549091167791e-06, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0003043032727445194, "delta": -0.014995435450908833 }, "results": [ { "value": 4.564549091167791e-06, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a6a39c2481cdcc2be92c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Disabled", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "3.49%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0349, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0349, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.5533230704426058, "delta": -0.01558902484155306 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c744bf64d1fe95691b11", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.27%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0127, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0127, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.0127 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cd4fece04092a5dd5246", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Two+ Earners", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.04%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0104, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0104, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.8568245344660521, "delta": 0.008910975158446941 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "da69f4effa74d8a3751e", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.77%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0177, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0177, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0027880327959632265, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.15751597717306365, "delta": -0.014911967204036774 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0027880327959632265, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ee29050bf29fd3448f4b", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_6", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.94%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0194, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0194, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0005127644372021837, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.026431156556813593, "delta": -0.018887235562797818 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0005127644372021837, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ee8f65454a0bac70e34f", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.21%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0021, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0021, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 8.179543377902682e-06, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.003895020656144134, "delta": -0.002091820456622097 }, "results": [ { "value": 8.179543377902682e-06, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "fdf5c2e3161cdbd91efd", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.01%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0201, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0201, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.9607450327585543, "delta": -0.0007890248415530592 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.01931097515844694, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ffa6961c5741e29180ad", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Gainers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_gaining", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.80%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.018, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.018, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.09619558352008852, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 5.344199084449363, "delta": 0.07819558352008851 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.09619558352008852, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "4d72bedf0f3b43671b62", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 All Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "6.33%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0633, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0633, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "51a97ffb9d4d47a139a2", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 All Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Northern Ireland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Northern Ireland", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "6.05%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0605, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0605, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "5aded772353154eb27b9", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 All Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Wales", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Wales", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "5.80%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.058, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.058, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f719faafd8b6d3cefd37", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 All Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "England", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "6.54%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0654, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0654, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1331d7ac264be182348c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "No Earners", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "22.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.222, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.222, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0005503506203706241, "delta": -0.22187782216227772 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "1fb460f9dbe4bb07b29c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "8.59%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0859, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0859, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0003362707606359545, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0039146770737596565, "delta": -0.08556372923936405 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0003362707606359545, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "285bce29dcafcbd915b4", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.20%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.002, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.002, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.061088918861139284, "delta": -0.0018778221622777216 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "295a0271b2c212a5d50a", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "6.49%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0649, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0649, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0018825552807747083, "delta": -0.06477782216227772 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "44ee4fca5ed6fb355aa2", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Three+ Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.25%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0025, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0025, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.04887113508891143, "delta": -0.0023778221622777216 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "496ce326fa433d5377e5", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.17%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0717, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0717, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.0717 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "55a986a14ba96f9347f1", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "4.67%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0467, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0467, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.0467 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "66eeef0699ea96a95de8", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.38%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0238, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0238, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.0238 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7b02806357f184244da6", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_6", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "8.47%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0847, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0847, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.0847 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8f2e1192bc3b99380254", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.70%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.077, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.077, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0004643634064414798, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.006030693590149088, "delta": -0.07653563659355853 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0004643634064414798, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9a20a395b9f67c115d60", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "27.3%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.273, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.273, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.00044753786711457347, "delta": -0.27287782216227774 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a01e747ad7eee53fa51c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.31%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0731, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0731, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.0731 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a596b3dcbd41b6cfdf78", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_1", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "6.36%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0636, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0636, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0004325567830175059, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.006801207280149463, "delta": -0.06316744321698249 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0004325567830175059, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "a9d657eb0fe740870340", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_4", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.31%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0731, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0731, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.0731 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c203f7d5b08802431c79", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "4.94%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0494, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0494, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0, "delta": -0.0494 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.0, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "d92301c25d980b373ec7", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Disabled", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "10.6%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.106, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.106, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.0011526211105875336, "delta": -0.10587782216227772 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "db9762f127b1a2b47169", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Lone Parent", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.46%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0046, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0046, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.02656039950484317, "delta": -0.004477822162277721 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e2ba652859577c2d91af", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2026 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.29%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0029, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0029, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.04213028886975123, "delta": -0.0027778221622777213 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.00012217783772227857, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "17e01896981ef617621c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Elderly Losers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "27.8%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.278, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.278, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8d84776596b2babc6204", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Elderly Losers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Wales", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Wales", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "25.8%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.258, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.258, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "c1e3c23228aa6bf6901d", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Elderly Losers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Scotland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Scotland", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "24.6%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.246, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.246, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "edc0f271c5d4c17a890d", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "Elderly Losers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Northern Ireland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Northern Ireland", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "26.8%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.268, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.268, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "066c6b0bfeab41052369", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "With Children Losers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2027, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Northern Ireland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2026-27", "geography": "Northern Ireland", "household_type": "With Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.00%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "72d50d6fde1031995f3f", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "With Children Losers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.23%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0023, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0023, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8369ac57fdb0e6049acf", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "With Children Losers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.00%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "9f5917c4e0b43f845a0e", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "With Children Losers", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.13%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0013, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0013, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "2e036d1057cf1d10410c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 All Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Scotland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "Scotland", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "6.68%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0668, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0668, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7ccb95a11c96a84a976c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 All Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Wales", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "Wales", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "6.85%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0685, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0685, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "cd5a162565a643a2d09e", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 All Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "England", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "England", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.37%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0737, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0737, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f0d8b47e953184dd330c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 All Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "Northern Ireland", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "Northern Ireland", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "5.72%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0572, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0572, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": null, "status": "not_computed", "engine_version": "", "data_bundle": "", "release": "", "construction": "", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "", "annotations": [], "baseline": null, "status_effective": "not_computed", "ratio": null, "delta": null }, "results": [], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3dc01df9cc8cbc125329", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Two+ Earners", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "0.92%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0092, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0092, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 18.46423325175719, "delta": 0.16067094591616615 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "3e916ddd76999ef1a0dc", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "8.17%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0817, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0817, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.08805775516378037, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0778183006582664, "delta": 0.006357755163780371 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.08805775516378037, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "41a766aff33ef51d198a", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "8.03%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0803, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0803, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.147625269893796, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.8384217919526278, "delta": 0.06732526989379602 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.147625269893796, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "426241f97d21b47fe0b2", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "No Earners", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "23.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.232, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.232, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.7322023530869229, "delta": -0.06212905408383387 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "551384cb40dcb0537c79", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_3", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "10.19%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.1019, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.1019, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.06401547042401741, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.628218551756795, "delta": -0.037884529575982595 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.06401547042401741, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "7db678655d5b6be30abc", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Elderly", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "28.5%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.285, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.285, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.59603840672339, "delta": -0.11512905408383384 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "82bc5943367ae09d0c42", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Three+ Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.80%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.018, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.018, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 9.437274773120341, "delta": 0.15187094591616615 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "86108f8cd4012e20fabc", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_9", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "4.78%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0478, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0478, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.37700557666933293, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 7.887145955425375, "delta": 0.3292055766693329 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.37700557666933293, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "920e776526dd416dd75c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Lone Parent", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.19%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0219, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0219, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 7.756664197085212, "delta": 0.14797094591616614 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ae69273cc021a2bda3e7", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_5", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.76%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0776, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0776, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.09815091329026471, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.264831356833308, "delta": 0.020550913290264705 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.09815091329026471, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "b232191e25eb51fa6bb2", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_2", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "10.10%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.101, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.101, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.06176918288590421, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6115760681772694, "delta": -0.039230817114095796 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.06176918288590421, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "caf42b1e53379fe1a90d", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_8", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "5.23%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0523, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0523, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.26743522806876535, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 5.113484284297617, "delta": 0.21513522806876534 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.26743522806876535, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "e100f416c38446b1aab9", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.32%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0732, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0732, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.320641337652543, "delta": 0.09667094591616614 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ede13892bec3b6f71d9c", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_10", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "2.57%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0257, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0257, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.3209151911668838, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 12.486972418944893, "delta": 0.2952151911668838 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.3209151911668838, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f0eeb93d0f30fe5d8e3f", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "With Children", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "1.30%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.013, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.013, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 13.066995839705088, "delta": 0.15687094591616613 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f312029401be6f30cd48", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "decile_7", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "7.05%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0705, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0705, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.1644753407295101, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 2.3329835564469517, "delta": 0.0939753407295101 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.1644753407295101, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f9510f633e627282b091", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "url": "https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/files/working-papers/cempa/cempa3-26.pdf", "metric": "share_losing", "unit_concept": "share", "value_kind": "point", "period": 2031, "time_basis": "fiscal_year", "period_start": null, "period_end": null, "geography": "UK", "program": null, "conditions": { "action_link": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard/issues/136", "baseline_policy": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "benchmark_class": "different_model", "country": "UK", "fiscal_event": "autumn_budget_2025", "fy": "2030-31", "geography": "UK", "household_type": "Disabled", "housing_costs": "ahc", "income_group": "all", "measure_key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "note": "\u00a78: 'This analysis identifies households experiencing income changes exceeding 1% or 5% thresholds after housing costs. Gainers see income increases while losers experience income decreases from the reform.' Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "11.2%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.112, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.112, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.5167048742514833, "delta": 0.057870945916166136 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.16987094591616614, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "ff2f84ae7ec5d56a697e", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "2030 Losers >1%", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. UK-Wide Distributional Analysis 2026-2030 (CeMPA Working Paper 3/26)", "window": "", "publication_title": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "9.28%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.0928, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.0928, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.05654898452088585, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.6093640573371321, "delta": -0.03625101547911414 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.05654898452088585, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "f29062c66901d499d000", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "prose: households with minimal income change (<1% either way), 2026", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "91.73%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.9173, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.9173, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.9492422707102005, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 1.0348220546279303, "delta": 0.031942270710200504 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.9492422707102005, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2026.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:00.370623+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2026 on the certified world proxies FY 2026-27; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "8f4d69c1d5adabb45a85", "source": "ukmod", "country": "UK", "source_column": "prose: households with minimal income change (<1% either direction), 2030", "name": "Policy Impact Assessment: Autumn Budget Statement 2026. 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Executive Summary: 'gain more than 1% of equivalised disposable income'.", "pe_expressibility": "partial", "pe_missing": "The Pension Credit leg is not a registry measure; UKMOD's poverty statistics hold the 2026 baseline line fixed (ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line, #13), so a PE counterpart states the line it used.", "reform_hint": "Autumn Budget Statement policy package as modelled in UKMOD (CeMPA WP 3/26): personal income tax threshold freezes (fiscal drag), Universal Credit two-child limit removal, Winter Fuel Allowance restrictions, Pension Credit reductions", "scenario": "reform_minus_baseline", "threshold": "1_percent_of_equivalised_ahc_disposable_income", "value_verbatim": "90.7%" }, "measure": { "key": "ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "program": "package", "computability": "partial", "head_variables": [], "parameter_paths": [] }, "reform_framework": "policy_ref", "reform_key": "4aed58f73308390d", "external_value": 0.907, "sign_relative_to_pe": "same", "sign_basis": "level", "external_value_pe_sign": 0.907, "calibration_relationship": "held_out", "claim_baseline": "ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "latest": { "value": 0.8108180789253869, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed", "ratio": 0.8939559855847705, "delta": -0.0961819210746131 }, "results": [ { "value": 0.8108180789253869, "status": "constructed", "engine_version": "2.89.2", "data_bundle": "populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z", "release": "8c73-4aa4b14", "construction": "package_of_registry_measures on the certified world (ab2025__personal_tax_thresholds_freeze_to_2031, ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit, ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000); artifact results/uk/ab2025/ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26_2030.json", "policyengine_variables": [], "computed_at": "2026-09-28T10:56:30.592056+00:00", "annotations": [ "PE calendar year 2030 on the certified world proxies FY 2030-31; static, no behavioural response", "executed baseline: certified world with pe_baseline_modifier; the claim is scored against ukmod_b2025_09_fixed_baseline_line", "share of households with a change over 0.01 of baseline household net income (housing basis AHC as the claim states)" ], "baseline": "pre_ab2025__package_ukmod_wp3_26", "status_effective": "constructed" } ], "diagnosis": null }, { "claim_id": "93368a42000c01f07cc3", "source": "ut_admin", "country": "US", "source_column": "state_ut_ctc", "name": "Utah Child Tax Credit ($1,000/child ages 1-3, nonrefundable)", "window": "TY2024", "publication_title": "UT State Tax Commission, Individual Income Tax Credits Claimed by Tax Year 2010-2024 (Apr 30 2026), Nonrefundable Child Tax Credit row: $40,022,410 / 39,754 returns TY2024. 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